More Piracy Near Somalia

[M-A Lagrange]

Hi Stan, JMA, David, Motorfirebox and Dayuhan,

I have a question for you Stan: what would be an African solution? As far as I know, somalis will not stop if you give them $, at contrary.
My experience in South Somalia tells me that part of the problem is the aid dependency problematic somali have been abble to turn round. As exemple, they were not maintaining infrastructures so they were making sure that international aid would keep coming. And they play that game on all sides: european, US, Arab league, Muslim charity...

I personnaly believe that only a strong and total economical blockus over somalia would work. They tend to reject any decision, even from their own politicians. So why don't we drop the support to so called somali government and parliament, have an agressive sea blocus (no ship in or out the miles out of the coast), no fly zone, full land border closing (monitored by international forces), no direct aid, only droping (Since the time, they have competent people for everything there, including health) and let them be as they want it?

We close hermetically the box for several years (Many over paid UN staff will loose their job but who really cares), send back all the politician home instate of having a so called somali parliament in Nairobi, sit and watch.
I'am pretty sure they would first protest and them once they get their ass kicked 2 or 3 times trying to force the blocus, would them start to thing about it in a constructive way. Look at Somaliland. They've been able to come with something which is not ideal but with whom you can actually deal with.

I'm saying so because it's a shared feeling among many people working on Somalia I know. Already too many books have been written on the fact that supporting somalia is creatting more problems than brings solution.
A cost comparaison has to be run but i'm not sure that it would be more expensive than keep on funding politician, fake government and aid.
BUt I might be a little too radical.

[Rex Brynen]

I personnaly believe that only a strong and total economical blockus over somalia would work. They tend to reject any decision, even from their own politicians. So why don't we drop the support to so called somali government and parliament, have an agressive sea blocus (no ship in or out the miles out of the coast), no fly zone, full land border closing (monitored by international forces), no direct aid, only droping (Since the time, they have competent people for everything there, including health) and let them be as they want it?

So we impose a complete economic blockade on 10 million Somalis in order to address the problem created by c1,000 active pirates (0.01% of the local population)? We do so even at the cost of aggravating Somalia's food insecurity and economic situation, with possibly tens of thousands preventable deaths as a result?

Collective punishment of civilian populations and blockades of the necessities of life have both been war crimes since WWII. Frankly, piracy seems a far cheaper cost to pay.

[M-A Lagrange]

Rex,

I know it's a radical and controvertial point of view!

The thing is that Somali domestic economy is not a heavy weight. And clearly, compare to the burden to try to solve the problem by forcing them to build something under/with foreign assistance, it might be cheaper and more productive. A little like when you lock 2 persons in a room saying: you'll be able to get out when you agree on something.

The issue is not just pirats. It's also weapon illegal trade, tobacco and drug smuggling, money laundry, terrorism support in central africa (please have a look at my RFI on this. Assistance needed.)... Piracy is just the top of the iceberg that is bothering the largest group of people, that's all.

My point is that not even 0,001% of the 10 million somalis have a say in politic at this point. Forcing them to settle the issue among them would force them to take in account the people wishes. Or may be not...

[motorfirebox]

I think nuking them would be less cruel and more likely to create order. (That's a comparison, not a suggestion.)

[AdamG]

Troops from a Spanish warship stormed a pirate skiff in the Gulf of Aden and rescued a French hostage missing from her yacht but found no trace of her husband, the EU anti-piracy mission said.

As a helicopter kept watch overhead, naval commandos in a fast launch fired on the skiff to disable its engine. The boat sank, but the hostage was rescued and seven pirates were arrested unharmed, the Spanish defence ministry said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-1...irates/2880136

[davidbfpo]

CIMIC have published a comprehensive, short report on the impact of Somali piracy; behind a free registration wall via their website:https://www.cimicweb.org/Pages/cimicwebWelcome.aspx

According to 18 August 2011 data presented by ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) Piracy Reporting Centre, piracy in Somalia this year has led to 178 incidents, 22 hijackings, 362 hostages, and 7 deaths. IMB further found that pirates are currently holding 19 vessels and 377 crew members.

Using a convoy system:

This convoy system would, in the opinion of the authors, O’Hanlon and Solarz, drastically increase the safety of merchant vessels transiting the Gulf of Aden, but would require the employment of approximately fifty military vessels. This requirement far exceeded the resources then available in 2009 which ranged from 15 to 20 vessels.

Armed guards:

It is estimated by the ISS that approximately one out of every ten vessels transiting the Gulf of Aden employs private armed security personnel.

[davidbfpo]

Yet again a hat tip to CIMIC for a short paper on the issues; access see previous post.

The bonus is a map on the last page of prisoners and prosecutions of pirates worldwide.

[davidbfpo]

A BBC report on the PM's announcement whilst in Perth, for the Commenwealth meeting:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15510467

There are a number of logistical issues to resolve, especially that the licences will only apply in 'high risk' areas and where will the firearms be kept when not there?

Best of all (my humour) is this:

Other counter-piracy measures being taken include offering support from Treasury officials to Kenya to help its officials track down pirates' assets.

When the UK has multi-billion VAT fraud and the Somalis use a variant of hawala banking this is weird. I am sure the pirates are investing in real estate and other areas across the globe, maybe Kenya too. Humbug!

[Stan]

pirates have proved increasingly mobile and flexible in their tactics

The Ministry has taken the decision after noting that about 35 per cent of merchant ships transiting through pirate-infested waters deploy armed security guards and that the pirates generally do not attack ships with guards on board.

... ultimately the problem of Somali piracy can be solved only on land. That will take time. In the absence of a functioning Somali state, a better co-ordinated international naval force and patrolling larger stretches of water are becoming necessary.

[Fuchs]

Minimal tech-pirates are annoying Western nations off the Somali coast and the media is reporting on it.

Well, the typical reflex of politicians is like "We must do something about it!" and "Let's send some combat ships to hunt the pirates!"

I remember history accounts of many counter-piracy campaigns; combat fleets alone were never a solution, although they were always involved.

Pirates are most easily defeated by raids on their coastal bases, military history leaves no doubt about this.

Western combat ships (including a German frigate) have been there for months and collected a huge amount of intelligence about smuggling and piracy activities.
The problem should be easily solved once a Western nation is willing to do so (to raid some fishing villages, destroy the boats and seize weapons).

This annoyance doesn't deserve much attention. Let's focus our attention and energy on more relevant challenges.

Guess who wrote that 40 months ago!

[Stan]

Hey Fuchs !
Well, that was an easy one having read your blog years ago

I really like your quote on piracy then (and now)...

(determined people with annoying intentions are annoyingly resistant to influence

Very similar to your quotes on the Officer Selection thread

Stupid aggressors are stupid - some people only learn through pain.

Well said !

Deterrence works also if a potential aggressor estimates that he will succeed to disarm and occupy the country, but concludes that it's not worth it because it would be too costly.

Kind of makes me wonder if you are correct with your theory of an

Influence squadron

This last quote is for JMA and his missile theories...

The problem should be easily solved once a Western nation is willing to do so (to raid some fishing villages, destroy the boats and seize weapons).

This annoyance doesn't deserve much attention.

[JMA]

Hi Stan, JMA, David, Motorfirebox and Dayuhan,

I have a question for you Stan: what would be an African solution? As far as I know, somalis will not stop if you give them $, at contrary.
My experience in South Somalia tells me that part of the problem is the aid dependency problematic somali have been abble to turn round. As exemple, they were not maintaining infrastructures so they were making sure that international aid would keep coming. And they play that game on all sides: european, US, Arab league, Muslim charity...

I personnaly believe that only a strong and total economical blockus over somalia would work. They tend to reject any decision, even from their own politicians. So why don't we drop the support to so called somali government and parliament, have an agressive sea blocus (no ship in or out the miles out of the coast), no fly zone, full land border closing (monitored by international forces), no direct aid, only droping (Since the time, they have competent people for everything there, including health) and let them be as they want it?

We close hermetically the box for several years (Many over paid UN staff will loose their job but who really cares), send back all the politician home instate of having a so called somali parliament in Nairobi, sit and watch.
I'am pretty sure they would first protest and them once they get their ass kicked 2 or 3 times trying to force the blocus, would them start to thing about it in a constructive way. Look at Somaliland. They've been able to come with something which is not ideal but with whom you can actually deal with.

I'm saying so because it's a shared feeling among many people working on Somalia I know. Already too many books have been written on the fact that supporting somalia is creatting more problems than brings solution.
A cost comparaison has to be run but i'm not sure that it would be more expensive than keep on funding politician, fake government and aid.
BUt I might be a little too radical.

If you speak to the navy they think blockade. The problem is that it is and expensive activity and there will always be loopholes that will be exploited.

The current international problem is piracy. Everyone knows who and where the pirates are and where the ships and the hostages are being kept.

It is a task for the marines (US or Brit).

* take out the pirates and their ships.
* liberate the hostages (with as few casualties as possible)
* recover the pirated ships.
* destroy anything and everything that appears to be have been procured through the proceeds of piracy.

The internal issue relating to the UN imposed government and its war with Islamists/Al Shabab is a separate issue and as the government has no legitimacy is unwinable.

There are no sovereignty issues relating to this failed state.

[davidbfpo]

From the BBC Radio Four's 'From Our Correspondent' series:

When Somalian pirates are caught there is often nowhere to try them, as Somalia itself has little effective central government. But some have been tried and jailed in the breakaway territory of Somaliland.

Nothing startling, but the pirate's own words.

Link:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programme...nt/9522063.stm

[Dayuhan]

It is a task for the marines (US or Brit).

* take out the pirates and their ships.
* liberate the hostages (with as few casualties as possible)
* recover the pirated ships.
* destroy anything and everything that appears to be have been procured through the proceeds of piracy.

I would go along with that, except that the last stage might be better held until the rest are accomplished. I'd also prefer to see some action taken against financiers, ransom collectors, and other industry beneficiaries that may not be located in the pirate-dominated areas. That would be intel-dependent of course.

That would be a large and complex operation, of course, given the number of ships involved. I wouldn't want to comment on the nature of the complications or the possible ways of overcoming them, as there are many here who know far more about such things.

It struck me as an off thought that if something like that were being planned, it might be worth an effort to significantly raise patrol levels (trying to reduce the number of new ships taken) and accelerate some of the ransom payments. Not that paying ransom is ever a good idea, but anything that would reduce the total number of targets would make a simultaneous recovery less complex. Again, I'd defer to those who know more... not that I expect anything of the sort to happen any time soon!

Again, I have to think this will go on until the pirates see that the cost and risk of piracy exceed the reward. That means imposing coasts and risks.

[JMA]

I would go along with that, except that the last stage might be better held until the rest are accomplished. I'd also prefer to see some action taken against financiers, ransom collectors, and other industry beneficiaries that may not be located in the pirate-dominated areas. That would be intel-dependent of course.

I suggest the commander will be given priorities and subject to a few factors on the ground would probably attempt to "secure" the hostages first (accepting that this will be more difficult if the hostages are dispersed at the first whiff of an operation). Give the commander the mission with any limitations then let him (and his staff) get on with the planning and the operation themselves (without interference).

As to tracking down and getting hold of the various "Mr Bigs" sitting in safe places - yes a separate exercise. A parallel exercise by the CIA or Interpol but not a task for the marines other than their feeding in the intel they may pick up on the ground.

That would be a large and complex operation, of course, given the number of ships involved. I wouldn't want to comment on the nature of the complications or the possible ways of overcoming them, as there are many here who know far more about such things.

Maybe not. Let the marines figure it out. Smart guys may well find a smart way of executing the mission.

It struck me as an off thought that if something like that were being planned, it might be worth an effort to significantly raise patrol levels (trying to reduce the number of new ships taken) and accelerate some of the ransom payments. Not that paying ransom is ever a good idea, but anything that would reduce the total number of targets would make a simultaneous recovery less complex. Again, I'd defer to those who know more... not that I expect anything of the sort to happen any time soon!

Yea, leave it to the marines.

Again, I have to think this will go on until the pirates see that the cost and risk of piracy exceed the reward. That means imposing coasts and risks.

And what would that the cost and risk tipping points be?

[Dayuhan]

And what would that the cost and risk tipping points be?

We don't know. We add risk and cost to their equation until they stop, then we know. Of course as long as they hold hostages it's hard to do that, which brings us full circle.

I'd like to see a mass raid aimed at recovering all ships and hostages now held... but I'm not holding my breath waiting for it.

[JMA]

We don't know. We add risk and cost to their equation until they stop, then we know. Of course as long as they hold hostages it's hard to do that, which brings us full circle.

I'd like to see a mass raid aimed at recovering all ships and hostages now held... but I'm not holding my breath waiting for it.

Look I'd have to do my homework on Somalia (to see where it differs from the Africa I know) but I suggest that they are pretty "old testament" in their approach to life. Let that be the point of departure.

Neither the US nor any European (as in geography) country will apply the death sentence on the pirates. So one needs to look for a proxy state (that will) to agree to try any captured pirates. Yes, it may require the incentive of an aid grant/bribe/call it what you like to get it off the ground.

So as not to place the current hostages under further risk this (kangaroo) legal process should come into effect after the current hostages are released/freed and automatically applied to any piracy actions after the operation we speak of.

I recently saw a documentary on the deployment of a Brit naval vessel on anti-piracy duties off Somalia. They came across this skiff way out to sea which had run out of petrol and on approach found neither weapons not fishing gear on board. They took the two Somalis on board fed them, clothed them and gave them a medical check up and delivered them to a point in sight of the coast where they were released in their skiff with enough petrol/water/food to make it home safely. Contrary to those with negative colonial memories the Brits are really jolly nice chaps. Little wonder the pirates are laughing all the way to the bank on this one.

Yes, sadly it is not going to happen.

But I would like the US marines to do the planning and via the Pentagon get it presented to the President as another electioneering stunt with great potential. He might even buy it.

[carl]

Here is an interesting story I found over at Information Dissemination. They seem to have a lot of those.

http://www.livemint.com/2011/07/0820...recks.html?h=B

It is about the life of the seaman kidnapped by pirates from the area that used to be the country of Somalia. About what you would expect from criminal teenagers. They torture, starve, beat and sometimes kill the seaman. That is what criminals do to people they control. Good clean fun you see.

[Stan]

Hey M-A !
My plan includes many of the things you, JMA and Dayuhan have provided. The only real twist when I say it's an Africa problem, is we don't get involved other than ensuring no vessel enters the Horn and your no fly zone. The remainder of Africa that depends on that sea traffic will take care of the pirates swiftly and violently (African style). As we the West can't bear to watch TV, there will further be a blockade on all news sources (nothing new in Somalia).

I also agree that we have played into their hands with aid. Cold turkey may not be very popular but I see no reasonable way out.

JMA's priorities need to be acted on as the blockade and no fly zone means dead and raped hostages and, well... we're back to the West watching TV

I have a question for you Stan: what would be an African solution? As far as I know, somalis will not stop if you give them $, at contrary.
My experience in South Somalia tells me that part of the problem is the aid dependency problematic somali have been abble to turn round. As exemple, they were not maintaining infrastructures so they were making sure that international aid would keep coming. And they play that game on all sides: european, US, Arab league, Muslim charity...