More Piracy Near Somalia

[Fuchs]

Minimal tech-pirates are annoying Western nations off the Somali coast and the media is reporting on it.

Well, the typical reflex of politicians is like "We must do something about it!" and "Let's send some combat ships to hunt the pirates!"

I remember history accounts of many counter-piracy campaigns; combat fleets alone were never a solution, although they were always involved.

Pirates are most easily defeated by raids on their coastal bases, military history leaves no doubt about this.

Western combat ships (including a German frigate) have been there for months and collected a huge amount of intelligence about smuggling and piracy activities.
The problem should be easily solved once a Western nation is willing to do so (to raid some fishing villages, destroy the boats and seize weapons).

This annoyance doesn't deserve much attention. Let's focus our attention and energy on more relevant challenges.

Guess who wrote that 40 months ago!

[Stan]

Hey Fuchs !
Well, that was an easy one having read your blog years ago

I really like your quote on piracy then (and now)...

(determined people with annoying intentions are annoyingly resistant to influence

Very similar to your quotes on the Officer Selection thread

Stupid aggressors are stupid - some people only learn through pain.

Well said !

Deterrence works also if a potential aggressor estimates that he will succeed to disarm and occupy the country, but concludes that it's not worth it because it would be too costly.

Kind of makes me wonder if you are correct with your theory of an

Influence squadron

This last quote is for JMA and his missile theories...

The problem should be easily solved once a Western nation is willing to do so (to raid some fishing villages, destroy the boats and seize weapons).

This annoyance doesn't deserve much attention.

[Fuchs]

I wouldn't say I've got an idea for an "influence squadron".

Diplomacy belongs to politicians and diplomats, technical assistance to project managers and technical experts and when you really need to do something from the sea in peacetime then charter a ship.


Back to pirates; Pompey is rollin' in his grave.

In the law of ancient Rome, the Lex Gabinia (Gabinian Law) of 67 BC granted Pompeius Magnus ("Pompey the Great") extraordinary proconsular powers in any province within 50 miles of the Mediterranean Sea. The law was passed by the tribune Aulus Gabinius.

The command came with a fleet of 500 warships, 120,000 infantry and around 5,000 cavalry to fight the growing problems of pirates disrupting trade in the Mediterranean Sea. Given three years to solve the problem, Pompey managed to defeat the pirates in just three months.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lex_Gabinia

THREE (3 !!!) ####ing months!

German frigates pointlessly patrolling the Somali coast in order to blockade it against AQ (one of the most idiotic ideas in military history!) turned the collection of intelligence on Somali pirates into a hobby for killing time - long before the problem took over the mainstream news in 2008.
Back then there were iirc only three small villages the core of the problem. Three light infantry companies could have solved the issue over night, even without any navy.

Politicians turned the whole piracy issue into just another get-together happening where even U.S., PRC and Iranian ships patrol side by side for a common cause.
That's not security policy, that's a demonstration of incompetence and ignorance.


Three months. *sigh*.
Today's politicians world-wide are inferior to some plutocrat who died 2,000 years ago.

I need to distract myself real quick now...

[davidbfpo]

Hat tip to CIMIC brifeing on Armed Guards on Merchant Vessels. Via:https://www.cimicweb.org

As of 07 November, 2011 the IMB, part of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), reported the following statistics for 2011.

Table 1. Incidents Reported for Somalia

Total Incidents 217
Total Hijackings 26
Total Hostages 450
Total Killed (hostages) 15

Table 2. Current Vessels Held by Somali Pirates

Vessels 13
Hostages 249

Link:http://www.icc-ccs.org/piracy-report...cynewsafigures

A long report on the economics of piracy has a superb map, showing the spread of Somali piracy, on Pg.4:http://geopolicity.com/upload/conten...89_regular.pdf

I know we have a few sailors aboard, but how do the Somalis reach so far? I know we've heard of "mother" ships.

[davidbfpo]

From an IISS Strategic Comment, which ranges widely and one selected passage which is not unexpected:

This highlights another trend: a growing synergy between the pirate gangs and al-Shabaab, who still control much of central and southern Somalia. Although they remain very different groups with separate aims – one purely commercial, the other political/ideological – overlaps occur in their interests and activities. The crippling famine in Somalia and al-Shabaab's withdrawal from its strongholds in the capital, Mogadishu, in August, have created a funding shortage for the group, which they have been trying to fill by taking a percentage of pirates' ransom money. In February, Reuters reported al-Shabaab seized several pirate leaders in Haradhere and forced them to agree to hand over 20% of future ransoms. An investigation by the news agency found large payments going to al-Shabaab's 'marine office' after lucrative ransoms were handed over for released ships. Pirates' growing use of the insurgent-controlled port of Kismayo has allowed for taxation and limited cooperation between the groups.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...den-their-net/

[Stan]

Western hostages freed in 'US military raid'

The rescue party is said to have landed close to a compound where hostages were being held.

A local security official, Mohamed Nur, told AFP news agency that several of the pirates had been killed.

The freed hostages were believed to have been flown to nearby Djibouti by the rescuers, he said.

They were named as American Jessica Buchanan, 32, and Poul Thisted, 60, of Denmark.

WASHINGTON -- In a daring nighttime raid Tuesday, U.S. Navy SEALs rescued two hostages, including one American, who were being held by kidnappers in Somalia, U.S. officials tell NBC News.

American Jessica Buchanan, 32, and a 60-year-old Dane, Poul Thisted, were working for a Danish relief organization in northern Somalia when they were kidnapped last October. U.S. officials described their kidnappers as heavily armed common criminals with no known ties to any organized militant group.
According to the U.S. officials, two teams of Navy SEALs landed by helicopter near the compound where the two hostages were being held. As the SEALS approached the compound on foot gunfire broke out, the U.S. officials said, and several of the militants were reportedly killed. There is no word that any of the Americans were wounded.

[Jedburgh]

Chatham House, 12 Jan 12: Treasure Mapped: Using Satellite Imagery to Track the Developmental Effects of Somali Piracy

There are increasing pressures to develop land-based approaches to Somali piracy. By making use of non-traditional data sources including local market data and satellite images, this paper is intended to be an objective analysis of who benefits from pirate ransoms.

Significant amounts of ransom monies are spent within Somalia, but conspicuous consumption appears to be limited by social norms dictating resource-sharing. Around a third of pirate ransoms are converted into Somali shillings, benefiting casual labour and pastoralists in Puntland.

Data analysis is complemented by examination of satellite imagery to establish where the beneficiaries are located. Pirates probably make a significant contribution to economic development in the provincial capitals Garowe and Bosasso. Puntland’s political elites are therefore unlikely to move decisively against piracy.

The positive economic impacts of piracy are spread widely and a military strategy to eradicate it could seriously undermine local development. However, coastal villages have gained little from hosting pirates and may be open to a negotiated solution which offers a more attractive alternative.