More Piracy Near Somalia

[motorfirebox]

I appreciate your good will in approaching this problem, but when you respond like this to a genuine Africa hand like Stan explaining the way things are over there, you can't be judged as anything but Manhattan cocktail party naive.

TIA. This is Africa. It isn't just a line in a movie, it really means something. Stan explained it. It really is.

I don't see how it's possibly more naive than expecting to be able to kill enough people in Somalia for the natives to even notice. I mean, really:

One thing I am thoroughly puzzled by, apparently the pirates took a shot at an American destroyer with an RPG. Those guys are not only evil but terminally stupid.

Isn't that a hint that maybe they're not that scared of us?

And frankly, the Somalis managed to build a government by themselves, on their own, which reduced piracy to the lowest levels in years. The desire is there. What's so scary about providing the means?

[carl]

Isn't that a hint that maybe they're not that scared of us?

Could be, but simple stupid is more likely.

[motorfirebox]

Could be, but simple stupid is more likely.

Ascribe his action to whatever quality seems most likely to you. Point is, back on shore, there are a hundred, a thousand, ten thousand more guys cut from the same cloth as him. If he's <stupid | desperate | methed out | whatever> enough to fire an RPG at the US Navy, do you think his buddies are likely to take his death to heart and stop being pirates?

I mean, he apparently didn't learn anything from the death of his buddies on the Maersk Alabama.

[carl]

I think you ascribe greater than human traits to these guys and less than human traits to these guys; at the same time. They fear death as much as anybody. That is why 13 of them gave up without a fight on board the Quest. Some are as impulsive as any bloody minded teenager. That is why two were killed after the other 13 surrendered. One was killed with a knife. Those multitudes on shore look in the mirror and see only one person, and they want to continue to see that face morning after morning. They don't see the first in the line of fearless hordes ready to die. They see themselves and they don't want to get killed.

So far these guys are acting just like hoods act. Typical. They strut and bluster when they are not opposed. When they are seriously opposed, after the first couple are killed, the rest of them surrender lickety split. And, again like criminals here in the US or anywhere, you have your one or two who want to go down in a blaze of glory. Those guys on shore heard about the Mearsk. They also can figure the numbers. They know that for every one of them killed, two hundred or more make a killing Until they figure the numbers are against them they will continue to play the game.

These guys act exactly, exactly as hoods here in the States act. And they will react to cops pointing guns at them just like hoods here do.

[Stan]

Forgive my cutting in this late in the game, but I have to wonder just what your background and experience with Sub-Sahara is.

I claim no experience. I present evidence which you are free to discuss, disregard, or accept.

Fair enough. I would argue a smiggin that your evidence is more your opinion, but then, I have my opinions too and the only real difference being mine are formed based on years on the ground during both peace time and civil war.

Case in point:

You mean aside from the Deputy Prime Minister of Somalia, speaking at a UN conference on Somali piracy? How about a statement from UN General Assembly President Ali Abdussalam Treki?

Thanks for the links !
Always amused me on how creative African governments can get with literally hundreds of Ministers, Deputies and Second Secretaries. Be it "Head of Fishing" or whatever, their primary goal is to keep their relatively lucrative jobs and assign blame. I didn't get much more than that out of the Deputy's address at the UN, and the statement from the General Assembly barely cites illegal fishing and dumping as a root cause. I can't recall just how many of these speeches and addresses I've read over the years and wondered what they ever produced, besides serving as a means of soliciting external funding.

[Stan]

I think you ascribe greater than human traits to these guys and less than human traits to these guys; at the same time. They fear death as much as anybody.

These guys act exactly, exactly as hoods here in the States act. And they will react to cops pointing guns at them just like hoods here do.

I'll echo Carl's views and especially the "stupid" act with an RPG. What they've now done is opened Pandora's box by immediately killing their hostages and changed the rules of engagement for the US Navy. Like Colonel Jones said, we're funny that way !

[JMA]

I'll echo Carl's views and especially the "stupid" act with an RPG. What they've now done is opened Pandora's box by immediately killing their hostages and changed the rules of engagement for the US Navy. Like Colonel Jones said, we're funny that way !

I don't understand this. I'm not sure we have heard the full story.

Their 2 negotiators are on the US destroyer and they still open fire on the destroyer????? High on Kat? Accidental discharge of weapon? Suicide by marines? Hostages try to make a break for it?

[JMA]

Always amused me on how creative African governments can get with literally hundreds of Ministers, Deputies and Second Secretaries. Be it "Head of Fishing" or whatever, their primary goal is to keep their relatively lucrative jobs and assign blame. I didn't get much more than that out of the Deputy's address at the UN, and the statement from the General Assembly barely cites illegal fishing and dumping as a root cause. I can't recall just how many of these speeches and addresses I've read over the years and wondered what they ever produced, besides serving as a means of soliciting external funding.

Their creativity is directly proportional to the potential amount of US$ some idiot government is likely to hand over to them to solve the problem on their own. When you hear the phrase "an African solution to an African problem" the alarm bells should start ringing.

[Dayuhan]

Their creativity is directly proportional to the potential amount of US$ some idiot government is likely to hand over to them to solve the problem on their own. When you hear the phrase "an African solution to an African problem" the alarm bells should start ringing.

When you start hearing about an American, European, or Chinese solution to an American problem the alarm bells should turn into shrieking sirens. Our "solutions" are no more effective and way more expensive.

I've no special problem with killing pirates, but I suspect that there will never be a shortage of new recruits. Seems that with that much money moving there has to be people handling it, making ransom contacts, collecting ransoms, laundering money, paying out the salaries of the guys in the boats. There will be a few people living in mansions and choosing their SUV of the day in that picture, and those guys will never be going out in boats. I'd guess that those are the ones who need to face some consequences.

[motorfirebox]

I think you ascribe greater than human traits to these guys and less than human traits to these guys; at the same time. They fear death as much as anybody. That is why 13 of them gave up without a fight on board the Quest. Some are as impulsive as any bloody minded teenager. That is why two were killed after the other 13 surrendered. One was killed with a knife. Those multitudes on shore look in the mirror and see only one person, and they want to continue to see that face morning after morning. They don't see the first in the line of fearless hordes ready to die. They see themselves and they don't want to get killed.

So far these guys are acting just like hoods act. Typical. They strut and bluster when they are not opposed. When they are seriously opposed, after the first couple are killed, the rest of them surrender lickety split. And, again like criminals here in the US or anywhere, you have your one or two who want to go down in a blaze of glory. Those guys on shore heard about the Mearsk. They also can figure the numbers. They know that for every one of them killed, two hundred or more make a killing Until they figure the numbers are against them they will continue to play the game.

These guys act exactly, exactly as hoods here in the States act. And they will react to cops pointing guns at them just like hoods here do.

I'm not saying they're superhuman suicide hostage takers. I'm saying they're used to violence and used to death on a level that, frankly, even most US combat troops are not. Nor are the worst of the worst of our hoods here in the States. To get Americans upset, you have to kill, like, one American soldier. A handful of really noticeable American deaths can change the of US foreign policy and, to an extent, the policies of much of the western world. In Somalia? Not so much.

I agree: it's a numbers game. The numbers required to have an effect are frankly too high to contemplate.

Fair enough. I would argue a smiggin that your evidence is more your opinion, but then, I have my opinions too and the only real difference being mine are formed based on years on the ground during both peace time and civil war.

I wouldn't have much argument with you on matters related to being on the ground. These considerations are high-level strategy, though.

Thanks for the links !
Always amused me on how creative African governments can get with literally hundreds of Ministers, Deputies and Second Secretaries. Be it "Head of Fishing" or whatever, their primary goal is to keep their relatively lucrative jobs and assign blame. I didn't get much more than that out of the Deputy's address at the UN, and the statement from the General Assembly barely cites illegal fishing and dumping as a root cause. I can't recall just how many of these speeches and addresses I've read over the years and wondered what they ever produced, besides serving as a means of soliciting external funding.

Well, like I said, you're free to regard the evidence however you like. Given the number and position of people talking about it, though--from the UN to the pirates themselves--I find it hard to disregard.

I think everyone agrees that if we kill enough pirates, piracy will stop. What we disagree on is how many dead pirates and collateral deaths it will take. I think it's a lot; others believe that we can fire off a few cruise missiles and cause everyone in Somalia to hide under their beds. What I will say is that in terms of actually reducing piracy, the only thing proven to work is something approaching a functioning government.

[JMA]

When you start hearing about an American, European, or Chinese solution to an American problem the alarm bells should turn into shrieking sirens. Our "solutions" are no more effective and way more expensive.

Well I tend to agree with you that the US State Department and the CIA are in competition as to which is the greater collection of stumble bums... but that said have you considered that in their ignorance they actually think they are doing good? Idiots yes, inept yes, incompetent yes, but 100% dishonest... NO. There is your difference.

I've no special problem with killing pirates, but I suspect that there will never be a shortage of new recruits. Seems that with that much money moving there has to be people handling it, making ransom contacts, collecting ransoms, laundering money, paying out the salaries of the guys in the boats. There will be a few people living in mansions and choosing their SUV of the day in that picture, and those guys will never be going out in boats. I'd guess that those are the ones who need to face some consequences.

I covered that base. You send the CIA after Mister Big and to let the marines loose on the trigger men in the boats. (The CIA will fail but the Marines will accomplish the mission.)

Now you want the message to get out that if you actually hi-jack a ship the chances are good you will be killed and if not then very good you will spend 20 odd years in a foreign jail then even the money promised begins not to look so good.

First order of business will be to free existing hostages and ships. Once done they can take it from there...

[Stan]

I'm not saying they're superhuman suicide hostage takers. I'm saying they're used to violence and used to death on a level that, frankly, even most US combat troops are not. Nor are the worst of the worst of our hoods here in the States. To get Americans upset, you have to kill, like, one American soldier. A handful of really noticeable American deaths can change the of US foreign policy and, to an extent, the policies of much of the western world. In Somalia? Not so much.

I think we've drifted slightly. It's not just fear of death; it's an African's life-long approach to everything including fear and death. We're not dealing with the Somalis on their level, but killing them will indeed get their attention.
Eventually the situation will be such a pain in the Alpha that we will make a difference (deterrence).

I agree most US military are not accustomed to life on the Dark Continent. We won’t take long however to train up so long as the current administration dismisses PC as a means to an end. This is one of the reasons I inquired as to your background in Sub-Sahara. Politics will not fix the current situation and all the money you wish to dump in the Somalia “hole” will not feed anyone, nor discourage piracy. What it will do is fill the pockets of the hundreds of Ministers, Deputies and, if you will, the Head of Fishing.

Well, like I said, you're free to regard the evidence however you like. Given the number and position of people talking about it, though--from the UN to the pirates themselves--I find it hard to disregard.

Sorry, but what evidence? Those two links you sent me ?

I think everyone agrees that if we kill enough pirates, piracy will stop. What we disagree on is how many dead pirates and collateral deaths it will take. I think it's a lot; others believe that we can fire off a few cruise missiles and cause everyone in Somalia to hide under their beds. What I will say is that in terms of actually reducing piracy, the only thing proven to work is something approaching a functioning government.

If you mean collateral deaths being those that the pirates executed after hijacking their ships, then there's very little we can do other than bomb the beaches before the pirates set sail.

JMA's scenario is expensive but not too far-fetched. Do we really believe that a country with only 1.2 percent attending grade school don't have an administrative base with slightly more intelligent life forms backing them?

I'll bet my US Military retirement (No JMA, only this month's) that there's a crusty old educated white boy hangin' in Switzerland backing the whole enchilada and not some greedy African leader. You heard it here first

[motorfirebox]

I think we've drifted slightly. It's not just fear of death; it's an African's life-long approach to everything including fear and death. We're not dealing with the Somalis on their level, but killing them will indeed get their attention.
Eventually the situation will be such a pain in the Alpha that we will make a difference (deterrence).

Yes. The question is how many people we'll need to kill to achieve that deterrence.

I agree most US military are not accustomed to life on the Dark Continent. We won’t take long however to train up so long as the current administration dismisses PC as a means to an end. This is one of the reasons I inquired as to your background in Sub-Sahara. Politics will not fix the current situation and all the money you wish to dump in the Somalia “hole” will not feed anyone, nor discourage piracy. What it will do is fill the pockets of the hundreds of Ministers, Deputies and, if you will, the Head of Fishing.

You're still stuck on internal Somali politics, which are only peripheral to what I'm talking about.

If you mean collateral deaths being those that the pirates executed after hijacking their ships, then there's very little we can do other than bomb the beaches before the pirates set sail.

Er, no. We can also seek out the pirates bases on land. If we're going to run around killing pirates, in fact, taking them out on land is the only possible way to kill enough of them to make a difference. And if we do that, a) we're going to have to kill a whole lot of them, and b) there's going to be a whole lot of collateral deaths and damage.

JMA's scenario is expensive but not too far-fetched. Do we really believe that a country with only 1.2 percent attending grade school don't have an administrative base with slightly more intelligent life forms backing them?

I'll bet my US Military retirement (No JMA, only this month's) that there's a crusty old educated white boy hangin' in Switzerland backing the whole enchilada and not some greedy African leader. You heard it here first

I'm sure there are a few, but most of the financiers are Somali expats.

You're free to question the links I provide, but I don't see any sourced alternative explanations being presented. The opposing argument seems to be the opinion, undiluted by documented fact, that Somalis are violent and that no further consideration on the subject will produce anything of use.

[carl]

Yes. The question is how many people we'll need to kill to achieve that deterrence.

Er, no. We can also seek out the pirates bases on land. If we're going to run around killing pirates, in fact, taking them out on land is the only possible way to kill enough of them to make a difference. And if we do that, a) we're going to have to kill a whole lot of them, and b) there's going to be a whole lot of collateral deaths and damage.

We are at an impasse in this discussion. I and some others think the pirates are criminals and will act as criminals act when confronted with resolute and persistent application of physical force. They will fold because they don't want to get killed, they just want the easy money.

You think the pirates have the cohesion and determination more characteristic of a military force, irregular or regular. Therefore they will continue to pirate or resist in the face of heavy casualties because they are after something other than easy money.

There is no way to really prove or disprove either side short of an empirical test. That may be coming up, given the murder of the Americans on the Quest and since there is a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) on the way to that part of the world. No word on what its' exact mission is.

I suspect that if the MEU showed up off the coast of Puntland, took back one or two ships and announced its' intention to continue to do so, those murderous Somali teenagers would suddenly be all smiles and best friends of the Marines.

[Stan]

Yes. The question is how many people we'll need to kill to achieve that deterrence.

I think we've drifted slightly. It's not just fear of death; it's an African's life-long approach to everything including fear and death. We're not dealing with the Somalis on their level, but killing them will indeed get their attention.
Eventually the situation will be such a pain in the Alpha that we will make a difference (deterrence).

That could be several thousands but it's not my intent to just outright kill. In the DRC (then Zaire) it still has not fixed much and, we are still pumping in millions in cash and political will. In fact my point; no more cash, no more political crap, just a firm deterrence since some of us have determined we're to blame. No more carrots and back to the Belgian colony days or just flat out leave it to them.

You're still stuck on internal Somali politics, which are only peripheral to what I'm talking about.

I agree most US military are not accustomed to life on the Dark Continent. We won’t take long however to train up so long as the current administration dismisses PC as a means to an end. This is one of the reasons I inquired as to your background in Sub-Sahara. Politics will not fix the current situation and all the money you wish to dump in the Somalia “hole” will not feed anyone, nor discourage piracy. What it will do is fill the pockets of the hundreds of Ministers, Deputies and, if you will, the Head of Fishing.

What exactly are you talking about ? Western politics ? You claim they had a political system and no piracy, but yet, you claim the solution lies in political semantrics vs deterrence and death. YET, you have never stepped foot on the continent. Sorry if I don't get you lately

Er, no. We can also seek out the pirates bases on land. If we're going to run around killing pirates, in fact, taking them out on land is the only possible way to kill enough of them to make a difference. And if we do that, a) we're going to have to kill a whole lot of them, and b) there's going to be a whole lot of collateral deaths and damage..

You've got me mistaken with JMA Cruise Missile Guy from SA. I wouldn't waste a second or single rocket on the bunch. IMHO we should save our cash and divert all floating assets around South Africa, offer exotic beach tours with sharks, and make a killing selling diesel fuel. The Somali pirates will go away without your political might and my tax dollars, and start fishing again (I hope).

You're free to question the links I provide, but I don't see any sourced alternative explanations being presented. The opposing argument seems to be the opinion, undiluted by documented fact, that Somalis are violent and that no further consideration on the subject will produce anything of use.

The two links provided barely link piracy with fishing and chemical dumping and that was your point for the last 10 posts. I back my sad theory with only my experience watching money pour out of the US and Europe with no reasonable end in sight and political Bravo Sierra for 24 years. Since experience has shown me both are not working I take issue with your proposal to spend more on training and political contributions.

Sorry, Dude... I ain't biting

[Stan]

I suspect that if the MEU showed up off the coast of Puntland, took back one or two ships and announced its' intention to continue to do so, those murderous Somali teenagers would suddenly be all smiles and best friends of the Marines.

Concur 110% !

In fact, the hotel and prostitution business would boom and the Fish Director would start selling diesel to passing naval ships

[slapout9]

Concur 110% !

In fact, the hotel and prostitution business would boom and the Fish Director would start selling diesel to passing naval ships

What about Keelhauling and Walking the Plank used to keep folks in line pretty good from what I have read. Marines would like that!

[carl]

In fact, the hotel and prostitution business would boom and the Fish Director would start selling diesel to passing naval ships

I've heard some that some Somali women are quite comely.

[Ken White]

I wouldn't have much argument with you on matters related to being on the ground. These considerations are high-level strategy, though.

Strategy or policy? That's not a semantic quibble, it's an effort to understand the intent of your line of reasoning. I sense it as being rooted in a policy of proper governance curing a specific evil or effort as opposed to being a strategy to actually eliminate (unlikely IMO) or at least reduce (possible also IMO) the problem.

I think everyone agrees that if we kill enough pirates, piracy will stop. What we disagree on is how many dead pirates and collateral deaths it will take. I think it's a lot; others believe that we can fire off a few cruise missiles and cause everyone in Somalia to hide under their beds. What I will say is that in terms of actually reducing piracy, the only thing proven to work is something approaching a functioning government.

In order; I sort of agree in that many but not everyone thinks that. For example, I do not think that. Regardless, I agree with you that it would be "a lot" and there would be significant numbers or relatively 'innocent' civilians killed. I do not think anyone, certainly no on with any experience in Africa, thinks that launching cruise missiles will do much more than antagonize the survivors. Thus my questions are:

Admitting many US (and other nations) policy errors in the Region -- which I certainly do -- history cannot be undone. What chance do you suppose a US backed solution would have of being accepted?

Do you believe that the reticence to do a clearance on the ground is reflective of a reluctance to cause that large number of casualties?

If the Piracy is not significantly curtailed, do you believe that such reluctance, if it exists, is likely to be overcome with even more devastating results as each week passes and the Piracy 'problem' is seen as escalating?

You propose a cessation of illegal fishing and illegal dumping by others. How would you propose to curtail actions that are already illegal?

If that entails a functional government in Somalia, given the history of the nation, the area and the current state of governance on the continent, how would you propose to establish and / or support a functional government there?

You're free to question the links I provide, but I don't see any sourced alternative explanations being presented. The opposing argument seems to be the opinion, undiluted by documented fact, that Somalis are violent and that no further consideration on the subject will produce anything of use.

I suggest that the links you provided are examples of Politicians providing, respectively, self and government protective commentary and job security oriented duck and cover. IOW, neither really substantiates anything and neither provides "documented fact" but rather opinion and little more. In an argument of conflicting opinions, there is normally no real 'right' or 'wrong' but a preponderance of evidence issue.

I will admit that my quite limited experience in Africa leads me to believe that many in the West do not understand the continent and makes me possibly unduly cynical about the prognosis for the continent or areas in it but I do believe the historical record, such as it is, is not supportive of your position.

What is fact -- documented -- is that the area and its people have always been politically and physically volatile and somewhat xenophobic. While I can agree with you that Europe and others being more in compliance with their own laws, not unnecessarily killing large numbers of people, a functional government and less greed would be beneficial and likely reduce the Piracy problem, thus my final question:

How do you propose 'we' should achieve all those goals and who will pay for it?

[motorfirebox]

You think the pirates have the cohesion and determination more characteristic of a military force, irregular or regular. Therefore they will continue to pirate or resist in the face of heavy casualties because they are after something other than easy money.

When did I ever say anything about cohesion and determination? I'm saying it's like trying to hold back the tide by punching it.

What exactly are you talking about ? Western politics ? You claim they had a political system and no piracy, but yet, you claim the solution lies in political semantrics vs deterrence and death. YET, you have never stepped foot on the continent. Sorry if I don't get you lately

Yes, Western politics, along with regional international politics. Sending Ethiopia in to crush the IUC in the mid-2000s was a political decision. Allowing toxic waste to be dumped off the Somali coast, allowing illegal fishing trawlers to scoop up so much of the sea life that Somali fishermen can't find anything to catch, those are both political decisions or at least decisions with political ramifications and connections.

You've got me mistaken with JMA Cruise Missile Guy from SA. I wouldn't waste a second or single rocket on the bunch. IMHO we should save our cash and divert all floating assets around South Africa, offer exotic beach tours with sharks, and make a killing selling diesel fuel. The Somali pirates will go away without your political might and my tax dollars, and start fishing again (I hope).

This idea I like, so long as we direct our assets against illegal fishers and dumpers to at least a tenth of the degree we direct them against pirates. Otherwise, there won't be anything to fish. Which, as I keep saying, is a big part of the problem.

The two links provided barely link piracy with fishing and chemical dumping and that was your point for the last 10 posts. I back my sad theory with only my experience watching money pour out of the US and Europe with no reasonable end in sight and political Bravo Sierra for 24 years. Since experience has shown me both are not working I take issue with your proposal to spend more on training and political contributions.

Except that your boots-on-the-ground experience apparently doesn't include remembering what action resulted in the lowest levels of piracy in years. I will happily listen to what information you're able to provide on the subject, but you haven't actually provided any. All you've said is "I've been there, so we should do X."

The logic behind my claim is pretty simple. Illegal fishing and dumping occur frequently off the coast of Somalia--this is a matter of public record. These activities cut into the Somali economy. The economy of Somalia isn't exactly a powerhouse in the best of times; by degrading it further, more Somalis are left with no livelihood. People who lose their livelihood don't just throw up their hands and die, they try to survive however they can manage to. As it happens, there's a way for these disenfranchised Somalis to survive: piracy. Can you show me where I'm wrong? Does illegal fishing and dumping not occur? Do these activities not degrade Somalia's fishing industry? Is Somalia so wealthy that it can afford to lose money and not see more of its citizens turn to banditry to survive and thrive?

I am well aware that money poured into places like Somalia generally just disappears--into the pockets of 'government', into the pockets of local warlords, etcetera. I'm not talking about direct nation building. I'm talking about clearing out as much external predation as possible. Somaliland and Puntland have managed to build themselves into something resembling stable states. The stability of Puntland, at least, is threatened by a drastically lowered ability to derive profit from one of their major industries--fishing. Currently, that's being made up for, to some degree, through piracy. If you take away the piracy but don't restore their ability to catch fish, all you're going to do is collapse Puntland into the same sort of shambles that most of the rest of the country enjoys. How you expect that result to reduce the incidence of violence, I really can't imagine.