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Thread: More Piracy Near Somalia

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    Regardless, the post/reply chain is getting so long that I'm having to break up my posts in order to fit under the character limit. I don't think, at this point, that there's anything new left to say; all that remains is restating what's already been said and/or expanding the discussion far beyond the original topic--both practices I try to not engage in. Despite appearances, I've learned quite a bit, and I hope others have gained as well. If I've seemed short, well, I only pull my punches for low-value targets. There don't seem to be many of those around here.

  2. #362
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Carl,

    Culturally speaking, negotiations should be done with the leader; but that doesn’t mean we’ll be dealing with a Colonel or General. In my case it was the entire opposite with uneducated and often “high as a kite” junior NCOs and enlisted.

    We can completely throw out the theory of “personal identity and shame on one’s family”. That the hostage takers will reflect on the potential consequences of their actions is pure Bravo Sierra. That trick doesn’t work well in Sub-Sahara -- An African, must above all save face even if he gains nothing through negotiations.

    I won’t completely dismiss Maslow’s hierarchy of needs because I believe Africans are primarily driven by their impoverished life. Ransom sums are more than tempting enough to motivate dirt-poor communities to participate, which means we will have a chance in hell on making some absurd impression on the locals by some minuscule act of a good deed.

    We stand fast in our belief that we will not negotiate with terrorist and I’m certain that the pirate leader was well aware of the outcome.

    The other thing I wanted to point out is that piracy on land is far older than some dispute over fishing rights and toxic dumping. One only need look at hostage taking in Niger for recent history (the Europeans are most favored as they often pay ransoms and do not publicize their efforts).

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    These negotiators were probably trained in the US so probably subscribe to the "softly, softly" approach.

    I suggest that until they get Africa savvy negotiators on those ships they should just accept that the hostages will be lucky to survive and US style negotiations are likely to confuse and alarm the pirates than reassure them.
    JMA,
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  3. #363
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    Morning, Motorfirebox !

    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    Regardless, the post/reply chain is getting so long that I'm having to break up my posts in order to fit under the character limit. I don't think, at this point, that there's anything new left to say; all that remains is restating what's already been said and/or expanding the discussion far beyond the original topic--both practices I try to not engage in. Despite appearances, I've learned quite a bit, and I hope others have gained as well. If I've seemed short, well, I only pull my punches for low-value targets. There don't seem to be many of those around here.
    I certainly hope you don't go and disappear on us -- it's be a real engagement and there's certainly more to come

    Regards, Stan
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  4. #364
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    And in the case of the Somali pirates the motivation would be?
    Criminal, but I would respond like a gang would.

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    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    No offense, but I don't see indications that you're qualified to make that judgment. A large part of your arguments rest on your idea on human nature and criminality rather than on information on Somalia. There's nothing wrong with that approach, but it doesn't engender confidence that you know enough about Somalia to tell me I don't know much about Somalia.
    Fair enough. Three things though, first, piracy is not unique to the area the used to be Somalia. It has been around throughout human history in all parts of the world. That suggests it is a normal part of human behavior, like robbing and killing. Therefore a detailed knowledge of the area that used to be Somalia probably isn't needed to have a fair appreciation of the ins and outs of piracy.

    Second, I take it that I don't know enough about the area that used to be Somalia to tell you about the area that used to be Somalia and you don't know enough about the area that used to be Somalia to tell me about the area that used to be Somalia. (Diagram that sentence!) Which is fine because we are talking mainly about piracy.

    Third, I still get the sense that you haven't dealt much with criminals.

    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    I am being fair. I don't put any more stock on Somalis than I put in anyone else--which is to say very little. The fact that I'm calling other nations wrong doesn't mean I'm calling Somalia right, and the fact that I'm calling other nations bad especially doesn't mean that I'm calling Somalia good. And maybe I've just been associating with the wrong sorts of people, but most of the defense lawyers I've met would react the way I described rather than the way you described.
    I've cleverly tricked you into trailing me into a verbal thicket and now both of us are lost. At least I am anyway.

    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    My understanding is that the vast majority of pirate attacks in the region go unreported. I think I talked earlier about why that is--shipping companies don't want to admit when their ships get pirated, because their insurance premiums will go up. Part of the reason piracy in the region is so successful is that it's cheaper for companies to treat privately with hostage takers than to call for help. Now, cases like this recent one, where the pirates were dumb enough to take a private yacht? Sure, track them down. But... they're likely to surrender rather than fight back, or at least fight back long enough for us to kill them all. I'm going to say that shooting them after they surrender (arresting them wouldn't, as I understand your argument, do much towards promoting the ends you're trying to accomplish) would be pretty illegal and leave it at that.
    Most of the attacks may be unreported but I rather doubt that most of the ships seized are unreported. I doesn't matter anyway, if a Greek supertanker or a Thai fishing boat approaches close to the shore near..say, Hardaheere, it's likely its' been hijacked. So you hail it and take it back.

    Glad to see you're coming around on the point that these guys are more likely to surrender than fight if they are actually confronted, thereby avoiding the dreaded mass slaughter of pirates.

    I don't want shoot them after they surrender, not without a fair trail first; and then only if any of merchant crewman are killed when the ship is re-taken. I will say that one of the advantages of Ken's favored course of letting local navies take care of the problem is they are not finicky about how they dispose of pirates. The Kenyans have a no quarter policy I've read.

    Arresting them would be fine, especially if they get 33 years sentences at Leavenworth. They seemed upset at that outcome. If they don't get back home with the money, then piracy doesn't pay.

    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    Sure.
    Are you being sarcastic or agreeing, I can't tell.

    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    Which is on shore, which gets back to the whole thing where you have to kill lots of people. Now, going after the 'motherships' would be workable and have an effect, though since piracy got pretty big before the whole mothership idea was hit on, it wouldn't stop it or have enough effect for us to say we beat piracy.
    You misunderstood, or I wasn't clear. You concentrate your forces offshore OF the pirate bases or just offshore, and retake the ships as they approach. The whole idea of doing that is NOT to go onshore. Offshore, things are localized in one little boat or big ship. And you concentrate near the bases to intercept mother ships on the way out.

    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    Well, two things. One, Puntland had a pretty solid fishing industry until the fish started running out (they still do, to some extent). That gives that region ready access to a necessary tool of piracy: boats. Two, it seems to be moving away from Puntland (pdf link).
    You don't address my observation that there doesn't seem to be many starving people who turn to piracy or die.

    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    They're not making donations. They're pursuing capitalism.
    This is a great story and a fine argument for JMA's multiple cruise missile approach. Only in the area that used to be Somalia would an RPG be part of the alimony.

    There, I've eaten my breakfast, read the paper and had my morning punch up with Motorfirebox. Now off to the gym.
    Last edited by carl; 02-26-2011 at 04:46 PM. Reason: I forgot something.
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  6. #366
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Hey Slap,

    Quote Originally Posted by slapout9 View Post
    Criminal, but I would respond like a gang would.
    Yep, 100% !

    I have to quote the current school system approach and guidance following a hostage situation (due mostly to my pesky nature )


    Be patient. Time is on your side.

    The hostage-taker may be emotionally/ psychologically impaired.

    Treat the hostage-taker like royalty.

    Avoid speculating about danger, the hostage-taker, or rescue.

    Be observant. You may be released or find an opportunity to escape. The personal safety of others may depend on your memory.
    And, my favorite...

    If gunfire erupts, get down. Lie flat on the floor.
    EDIT: Er, PS. We're off to a pirate-theme restaurant tonite as all this talk has me hungry for fried king shrimps

    Those interested in joining us, let's meet at the Corsair
    Last edited by Stan; 02-26-2011 at 04:24 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    ...I mean, heck, by that logic, it oughtta be okay for you and me to invest in some Somali pirates. After all, piracy doesn't take any US involvement to get going.
    Well, that's circular...
    In terms of lives and money? The fishers and, especially, the dumpers. (Even before you add, as I do, the lives and money lost to piracy.)
    I can buy that / them. Who can argue with rectitude. It's a good state. Getting there however requires more than desire and good intentions, it becomes not an academic exercise but an effort in a tough and real world. Thus I have to ask:

    How do you propose to do that and who should do it?
    I'm not. I'm accepting them because they make sense. I see that fishing is a large part of the region's income. I see activities that depress fishing in the region. I see piracy increase, and I see pirates talking about retribution for the activities which depressed fishing in the first place.
    They do? Make sense? Not totally, I think. Do you have a large consensus on that?

    Fishing is a part, large is highly debatable. Given the relative impacts of pelagic fishing as opposed to subsistence and minor market fishing from small craft, there is depression -- but the amount is slight. Of course you see Piracy increase as any activity that is relatively lucrative, provides 'adventure' and a sense of illegality to young, unemployed males and requires little training or investment is going to increase unless curbs are introduced -- lack of a functional society or governance means there are no curbs. You see them talking retribution, I laugh and see them talking trash -- and seeking a somewhat specious justification they know will resonate with some who will rally to their defense.

    So who's correct -- thee or me? Probably the answer is somewhere in between. However and regardless, I strongly suggest you consider the fact that things outside the west (or even inside it for that matter...) are rarely as they seem. It is all too easy to presume that other societies and people think and want as do we -- one learns over time that is rarely the case.
    How in the world is rule of law--a concept which has been espoused by everyone from Confucius to Buddha to the Koran to the Bible to, well, any number of western luminaries--a western concept? Or judges, for that matter--again, you can find examples in China and sharia law, to name two that come to mind.
    All societies have laws, all have judges in some form. Only the west uses the phrase and attitude of the 'rule of law.' Go most anywhere in the world and use the phrase and do not be offended at the laughter it draws. See also this LINK and pick almost any of them. Western usage is basically that said 'rule' protects citizens from their governments -- that just absolutely will not fly on most of the rest of the globe. You try it on most places and they will eat your lunch and your shorts...

    Westerners make money so they can influence power through the rule of law; non-westerners grab power so they can make money and rule the law. If you heed nothing else in this discussion, remember that....
    That's too broad a definition to be useful.
    Oh. It is, huh. Unlike these from an earlier post of yours:
    ""The US has a habit of making problems out of things which are not its problem.

    Using our various adventures in those regions as a template for westernity.""
    Eye of the beholder, I guess? Your broad definitions have value, others do not? Heh.
    Eh? I'm not assigning evil intent. Selfish intent, in some cases--but not in the case of anyone posting here.
    Not to anyone posting here; to the above mentioned US and "westernity" elements and all those earlier interventions of which you apparently disapprove. They were 'wrong' but your proposals are 'right'...
    I'm not sure what you mean...when I post, I post to discuss. Otherwise I'd just say "I don't think we should limit our response to simply shooting pirates" and be done.
    I see. It appears to me that your discussing tends to adhere to the 'my way or the highway' school of thought. To wit, your 'arguments' are all sound and thoughts in opposition do not pass your test of acceptability. That may not be true but that's the appearance. You seem to reject any suggestion or thought that does not fit you preconceived assessment or received wisdom regarding the piracy. Dismissiveness is not always its own reward...
    The reality of the situation in Somalia has no bearing on making an argument on a discussion board--even a discussion board with members who are, were, or will be directly involved in that reality. Given the caliber of some of the members of this discussion board, it could be... argued... that an argument here could have an effect on the reality in Somalia.
    Possibly correct, however, my comment was directed toward the academic aspects of nice theory crashing into the harsh reality of Somalia, a place where a number of other theories are dead and buried. I said at the end of that paragraph: "It's reality and those who endeavor to implement any interference, no matter how benign are not going to be popular or insulated from reality."
    I agree to a large extent--ie, no "period". You can't come in and impose a solution and expect it to work. But you can assist with solutions. Ethiopia is actually a good example, here.
    Assisting is good and I'm all for it -- however, excessive assistance breeds both dependency and resentment and thus can be counterproductive -- even dangerous. Good intentions abound but their list of failures is mind boggling. The fact is also that assisting is not solving, thus my period - it's pretty well valid.

    It behooves one to be very knowledgable of the environment as well as rather careful what one does and how one goes about it...

  8. #368
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    Westerners make money so they can influence power through the rule of law; non-westerners grab power so they can make money and rule the law.
    Now that is a sentence. SWJ qoute of the month, if they have that anymore. Why do you write things I wish I thought of?
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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post

    I've cleverly tricked you into trailing me into a verbal thicket and now both of us are lost. At least I am anyway.
    This should be the SWJ quote of the week,month or whatever

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Morning, Motorfirebox !
    I certainly hope you don't go and disappear on us -- it's be a real engagement and there's certainly more to come

    Regards, Stan
    I'm not disappearing; this is a wide-ranging subject with a lot of neat facets. But with regards to causes and solutions, the prosecution rests.

    Regarding piratical practices, though:
    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    I suggest that until they get Africa savvy negotiators on those ships they should just accept that the hostages will be lucky to survive and US style negotiations are likely to confuse and alarm the pirates than reassure them.
    I'd like to point out that, the recent episode aside, the hostages survive the vast majority of the time. That could change--it might be fair to say that is changing--but it remains true currently.

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    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    I'd like to point out that, the recent episode aside, the hostages survive the vast majority of the time. That could change--it might be fair to say that is changing--but it remains true currently.
    I have no links to provide you.

    You're not going to like this coming from a "boots-on-the-ground" perspective, but the recent episode brings back nightmares of the late 80s and early 90s in several countries where every African fired defiantly and aimlessly into the air instilling fear in the locals and foreigners… at least until the day came where nobody paid attention any longer.

    Like Carl recommended, if you spent some time on the ground you would recognize what is really about to come... and you're not going to like it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    ...if you spent some time on the ground you would recognize what is really about to come... and you're not going to like it.
    True dat.

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    Here is a link to a story about the International Transport Federation Workers (ITW) thinking about advising mariners to refuse to sail in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden and other pirate infested waters.

    http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/f...nid=1436779405

    I don't know what the chances of that happening are but if it did, it would affect the number of ships transiting the Suez Canal. If that happened the Egyptians would be out a lot of money and that might p--- off the Egyptian Navy enough to take action. If that happened, I would not want to be a pirate.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
    I didn't realize that South Africa had a currently functioning Marine Corps.



    Mike
    Except... "However, it should be noted that this squadron has never had the same level of training and for a long time have been substandard when compared to basic infantry."

    Don't hold your breath...

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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    Here is a link to a story about the International Transport Federation Workers (ITW) thinking about advising mariners to refuse to sail in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden and other pirate infested waters.

    http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/f...nid=1436779405

    I don't know what the chances of that happening are but if it did, it would affect the number of ships transiting the Suez Canal. If that happened the Egyptians would be out a lot of money and that might p--- off the Egyptian Navy enough to take action. If that happened, I would not want to be a pirate.
    The Suez Canal Authority certainly boasts much more than transit including 50% discounts for vessels calling on Egyptian ports at the Red Sea or Med. Their calculations for saving in distance traveled via the Canal vs the Cape of Good Hope didn't however take into account the January 2011 Greek oil tanker paying 5.5 million bucks in ransom. When that crude hits its destination the price per liter in Europe will be painful

    Egypt has 93 navy ships and their Civil Guard a notorious reputation for swift punishment. Sounds like JMA's proxy plans are in motion with the closing of the Canal
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    I have no links to provide you.

    You're not going to like this coming from a "boots-on-the-ground" perspective, but the recent episode brings back nightmares of the late 80s and early 90s in several countries where every African fired defiantly and aimlessly into the air instilling fear in the locals and foreigners… at least until the day came where nobody paid attention any longer.

    Like Carl recommended, if you spent some time on the ground you would recognize what is really about to come... and you're not going to like it.
    That's one possible outcome. The money involved is a significant factor, though. Dead hostages net no ransoms. If killing hostages becomes significantly more commonplace, I think the main driver for that change will be the influence of al Shabaab--they'll be looking for more than just a money drop.

    There is indication that the hostages on board the Quest may not have been killed as a result of simple bloodlust, but rather due to the US negotiators making what is--if the allegation is true--an incredibly bad decision.

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    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    That's one possible outcome. The money involved is a significant factor, though. Dead hostages net no ransoms. If killing hostages becomes significantly more commonplace, I think the main driver for that change will be the influence of al Shabaab--they'll be looking for more than just a money drop.
    I'm beginning to wonder when this tide turns and the pirates realize that the cargo on the ship is far more valuable than the foreign crew. I saw it in the DRC (then Zaire) following 3 civil wars and by accounts, the NGOs in eastern DRC see it even now.

    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    There is indication that the hostages on board the Quest may not have been killed as a result of simple bloodlust, but rather due to the US negotiators making what is--if the allegation is true--an incredibly bad decision.
    Gotta agree with you there. There's sufficient BBC and LAT posts that turn things in every direction from pirates being upset with their take, retaliation for lost brothers, to DOD saying "he said she said".


    US deaths show growing pirate violence in hijackings


    Pirate sources have told the media that the Americans shot two pirates dead and the hostages were then killed in retaliation.
    U.S. officials defend strategy in talks with pirates

    But several experts wondered whether the U.S. negotiators went too far in pressuring the pirates, which raised tension in an already-fraught situation. An alternative might have been for the Navy to have not told the pirates that it intended to prevent the hostages from being moved.
    Somali pirates fight over huge tanker ransom

    This is what Carl meant by TIA, and WAWA works too !
    As the ransom was due to be delivered on Sunday, pirates on board the tanker and others in speedboats were reportedly already firing weapons at each other.
    Last edited by Stan; 02-27-2011 at 11:25 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    I'd like to point out that, the recent episode aside, the hostages survive the vast majority of the time. That could change--it might be fair to say that is changing--but it remains true currently.
    Well "the recent episode aside" has changed all that, yes?

    ...but it is accepted that the circumstances were somewhat different from the norm in that there was a confrontation with a navy ship with negotiations (I think that's what they called it) taking place.

    There will be lessons to be learned from this and I would like to see just how much "advice" was flowing in from all the "smart guys" back at State and wherever which would be guaranteed to complicate matters an impossible level.

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    Quote Originally Posted by motorfirebox View Post
    If it were that easy it would be done by now. The idea we don't have the political will to unleash the CIA, in an era where Gitmo is still in full operation, is not one that passes the smell test. As for cruise missiles, these guys operate out of local villages. There's going to be significant collateral damage no matter how well-targeted the missile is. I don't think blowing up one of the more prosperous regions in Somalia is the key to reducing piracy.
    What you don't seem to have learned is that the easy things are seldom done. There is a habit of selecting the most complicated of plans of action.

    You need to understand that I joke and mock the CIA (as I believe it to be second only to the State Department in rank incompetence). There is a snowballs chance in hell of the CIA finding and shutting down the European connection of the pirates.

    I spoke of the cruise missile in the context of the Ivory Coast. That was to eliminate the person most likely to restart the civil war. As that tragic outcome moves closer to a reality the lost opportunity of the cheap and effective option with increasingly be lamented. (Not that the smart guys at State would ever admit that).

    You have had it explained to you by a few of the folks around here that whole communities support the piracy operations as it has lifted them out of the subsistence existence they had before. Nobody is neutral. Nobody in these villages wants the money piracy brings to go away. The current prosperity is the result of the proceeds of crime.

    There never was a luxury 4x4 vehicle in the area, there never was any dwelling better than they had before:



    So simply put they must return to where they came from... and in addition there should be a payment of compensation to those who they committed these acts against which should keep them that way for the next century or so.
    Last edited by JMA; 02-27-2011 at 12:19 PM.

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Default Hat tips to Sam from post #45

    Great link and sad story by Information Dissemination on Somalia

    Somali Pirates Evolve Tactics After US Navy Incident

    The tactical agility of pirates has long been something worth observing. It seems this took about a day.

    Pirates in Somalia said Wednesday they are ferrying ammunition and men to the 30 hijacked vessels still under their control, and they threatened to kill more captives following the violent end to a hostage standoff that left four Americans dead.

    Pirates once were believed to be disgruntled and financially motivated Somali fishermen angry that international trawlers were illegally fishing Somalia's waters. Now criminal gangs dominate the piracy trade, and have begun systematically torturing hostages, including locking them in freezers.

    "What we're seeing is that because of the business model the pirates have adopted is so lucrative that you're now getting organized criminal gangs involved as opposed to fishermen who just decided to have a go at piracy," said Wing Commander Paddy O'Kennedy, spokesman for the European Union's anti-piracy force.

    "Criminal gangs are more violent than your average fisherman who's turned to piracy," O'Kennedy said.
    I think it's fairly clear we are in Africa !
    Last edited by Stan; 02-27-2011 at 11:44 AM.
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