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Thread: More Piracy Near Somalia

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    Council Member wm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Odom View Post
    I disagree in that there is a natural process that forces change: it is called war in all its various forms. Where we have consistently gone wrong in cases like the Congo --or Somalia--was that we rushed to restore and maintain rather than sort out the underlying reasons for the conflict. That the African governments themselves held similar fears is true but hardly surprising.

    In the case to the Congo/Zaire, that government was a Western creation. In the era of the Cold War with proxies in either side, your professor was correct. Better to avoid conflict or if unavoidable support conflict that ends in stalemate. I would class Angola and our support first to the FNLA and later UNITA as prime examples.

    Don't get me wrong: I am not an advocate of border change as a solution to be imposed from the outside. The borders in the Middle East are truly screwed up; overtime they will adjust, Should we try to adjust them, we would indeed unleash chaos.

    In the case of the Congo, some of this has been going on for decades. While I was there in 1994 Shaba province was renamed Katanga and the governor drove to the ceremony in Moise Tshmobe's old car (from his days as head of the Katangan Secession in 1960-63).

    Since the 'end of the Cold War' of course, the old paradigm of strategic checkmate fell apart. We have however continued to approach long standing issues like the Congo or Somalia as if we were determined to maintain that paradigm--at least in respect to maintaining borders. I found Museveni's speech/transcript in the latest Mil Review to be quite good in getting at this tendency.

    I also found this to be true in 1994-1996 when warning DC that Rwanda under the RPF saw a conquest of Zaire only as an exercise in logistics. A local UNHCR Director in Goma in late 1994 was appalled when I told him that unless the killer militias in the camps were disarmed he would see an RPA brigade marching past his office. Took 24 months but it happened. Instead he--the UNHCR guy and a hell of lot of others--saw that border as a barrier.

    Where does this leave us though? I would suggest that in cases like the Congo the regional players will have to work it out. I see MONUC and its 17,000 troops as a testament to UN futility. Absent a mandate to engage in offensive operations and actually take charge, MONUC is part of the problem. ultimately I believe Rwanda will reaquire territory in the Congo based on ethnic ties as well as its own historical claims.

    In the case of Somalia, I believe supporting a breakway Somaliland that shows it can function as a state is the right thing to do. Djibouti is another example. Support the governments that work and allow them to draw in those who wish to join them.

    best

    Tom
    I believe that we could summarize this whole post as "Let folks apply the principle of self-determination." Western paternalistic attempts to help out the world's "poor and downtrodden," inspired IMHO by a distorted form of missionary zeal that is really a poor attempt to assuage guilt over abuse of power, have proven themselves to be ineffective and quite often downright destructive to those "poor and downtrodden" people.
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    Quote Originally Posted by wm View Post
    I believe that we could summarize this whole post as "Let folks apply the principle of self-determination." Western paternalistic attempts to help out the world's "poor and downtrodden," inspired IMHO by a distorted form of missionary zeal that is really a poor attempt to assuage guilt over abuse of power, have proven themselves to be ineffective and quite often downright destructive to those "poor and downtrodden" people.
    Funny that you say that as Gerard Prunier essentially says the same. I just got my Amazon notification that his book on the Congo Wars was shipped.

    I do believe that there are circumstances where intervention are not only justified but obligatory. Rwanda's genocide was such a case. In contrast, the Humanitarian Crisis" as hyped in Somalia that led us to go in there was a mistake. Errors made in that crisis forestalled effective intervention in Rwanda. I do not believe that there is a cookie cutter model out there that can be used to select such instances. All are different and all require measured analysis. Just because 2 crises both happen in Africa do not make them the same.

    CNN's Christine Amanpour's special on genocide ran last night and I watched some of it. Dallaire's comments about he could have done something with a brigade were again front and center in pre-show articles on CNN.com. Maybe he could have--if he actually had a brigade of Canadian troops or US troops or troops with a non-UN C2 system (UN C2 means no command and very little control). The UN has a division worth of troops in Congo right now and they have been there for years. What a waste.

    Tom

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    Quote Originally Posted by wm View Post
    I believe that we could summarize this whole post as "Let folks apply the principle of self-determination." Western paternalistic attempts to help out the world's "poor and downtrodden," inspired IMHO by a distorted form of missionary zeal that is really a poor attempt to assuage guilt over abuse of power, have proven themselves to be ineffective and quite often downright destructive to those "poor and downtrodden" people.
    Hey Wayne,
    Not that I disagree with you, but got to wonder what we would even be doing there in the first place if we really truly were content to permit self-determination. Would we then idly stand by as Russia and China devoured Sub-Sahara in their wakes, or, would we continue to piss and moan as they did said ?

    If (extremely theoretical) we could care less politically speaking, imagine all the cash we could save and rebuild homes and lives for those on our own continent FIRST.

    Sorry, watched millions dumped into one country and also watched that same country deteriorate beyond my wildest imagination. We're on the verge of broke, and they are still bitchin"

    Self-determination my Alpha !
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Hey Wayne,
    Not that I disagree with you, but got to wonder what we would even be doing there in the first place if we really truly were content to permit self-determination. Would we then idly stand by as Russia and China devoured Sub-Sahara in their wakes, or, would we continue to piss and moan as they did said ?

    If (extremely theoretical) we could care less politically speaking, imagine all the cash we could save and rebuild homes and lives for those on our own continent FIRST.

    Sorry, watched millions dumped into one country and also watched that same country deteriorate beyond my wildest imagination. We're on the verge of broke, and they are still bitchin"

    Self-determination my Alpha !
    Stan,

    I wrote "Let folks apply the principle of self-determination." There's a lot of stuff packed into the words "let" and "apply." They need to be in what some folks call a "free speech community." That means that no outsiders are in a position to coerce the decison-making process. It also means that they have enough relevant information to make a well-informed decision.

    IMHO, we (as rational humans, not as power-brokering empire builders) do (or should) care that they make a good decision, but it has to be a good decision for them, not one that we think would be a good decision for them. Otherwise the money we spend is just thrown down a rathole and will require more money later as the rats need to be exterminated.

    I'm thinking that a Somililand/Puntland /Somilia solution for the Horn is probably the right way to go, for example, but that's not my call. I (as in America) need to make sure that the folks in the Horn get to decide what works best for them--without undue influence by other major powers (like those you mentioned). I also suspect that the Congo could well become at least 3 or 4 separate nations (maybe more, my cultural geography knowledge on the region is woefully old and I'm starting to get CRS disease).

    But, fighting to prevent change by those who have come to be the power brokers as a result of the status quo will be pretty significant and bloody I suspect. Is it worth an increased investment today in blood and treasure to make things better in some, perhaps very long distant, future; or is it better to just keep the status quo in place with its atttendant loss of life and lucre? I submit that that's the policy debate that needs to happen.
    Last edited by wm; 12-05-2008 at 05:32 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by wm View Post
    Stan,

    I wrote "Let folks apply the principle of self-determination." There's a lot of stuff packed into the words "let" and "apply." They need to be in what some folks call a "free speech community." That means that no outsiders are in a position to coerce the decison-making process. It also means that they have enough relevant information to make a well-informed decision.
    Wayne,
    I knew I would get a straight answer out of you
    Was not attacking your words, rather trying to see where you were going with them. Honestly, I don't see many on the dark continent going anywhere with this current principle. Perhaps an unfair statement (knowing how far along we've made it without too much foreign intervention), but my experience leaves me with nothing but skeptical doubt.

    Quote Originally Posted by wm View Post
    IMHO, we (as rational humans, not as power-brokering empire builders) do (or should) care that they make a good decision, but it has to be a good decision for them, not one that we think would be a good decision for them. Otherwise the money we spend is just thrown down a rathole and will require more money later as the rats need to be exterminated.


    I'm thinking that a Somililand/Puntland /Somilia solution for the Horn is probably the right way to go, for example, but that's not my call. I (as in America) need to make sure that the folks in the Horn get to decide what works best for them--without undue influence by other major powers (like those you mentioned). I also suspect that the Congo could well become at least 3 or 4 separate nations (maybe more, my cultural geography knowledge on the region is woefully old and I'm starting to get CRS disease).
    Hmmm, what if all our good advice was never attached to a deal or cash ?
    Kind of like you telling your son or daughter what will inevitably happen if you do X, but in spite of your educated conclusion and experience, they go ahead and do IT anyway. What ever happened to being rewarded later following a good deed...LOL Not too sure about Somalia, but if the DRC peacefully separated into tribal or cultural nations, it certainly wouldn't end there. We're back to greed and getting rich quick. I have never been of the opinion that those folks will live together as long as some are better off than the rest.

    Quote Originally Posted by wm View Post
    But, fighting to prevent change by those who have come to be the power brokers as a result of the status quo will be pretty significant and bloody I suspect. Is it worth an increased investment today in blood and treasure to make things better in some, perhaps very long distant, future; or is it better to just keep the status quo in place with its atttendant loss of life and lucre? I submit that that's the policy debate that needs to happen.
    Other than what I conclude is the DRC's answer (not that I think its the best answer), I have no real clue how to turn off the current trend. Sadly, if something doesn't happen quickly, we'll have 2 or 3 generations to wait out before anything does take hold. It is little more than blood and treasure, and far too easy to use ethnicity as the driving force when your soldiers have yet to complete 3rd grade

    Regards, Stan
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    but if the DRC peacefully separated into tribal or cultural nations, it certainly wouldn't end there. We're back to greed and getting rich quick. I have never been of the opinion that those folks will live together as long as some are better off than the rest.
    Understand your concerns and believe me I don't expect "goodness and light" to burst from the Heart of Darkness over the next decade. What I would suggest is possible that local states built around ethnic and commercial interests locally could emerge, survive, and develop a a sense of polity that could attract greater followings. If that sounds Polly Annish, it is to a certain degree.

    But the opposite track--always trying to prop up a central government--does not work as repeatedly proved in the 48 years since Congo became an independent "nation". An independent Kivu or Kasai or Katanga may be more viable than Leopoldville/Kinshasa (which truly has been more of a city state than a national capital). I would apply the same model to the region of Somalia as the Finnish article you posted did.

    Best

    Tom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Wayne,
    I knew I would get a straight answer out of you
    Was not attacking your words, rather trying to see where you were going with them. Honestly, I don't see many on the dark continent going anywhere with this current principle. Perhaps an unfair statement (knowing how far along we've made it without too much foreign intervention), but my experience leaves me with nothing but skeptical doubt.



    Hmmm, what if all our good advice was never attached to a deal or cash ?
    Kind of like you telling your son or daughter what will inevitably happen if you do X, but in spite of your educated conclusion and experience, they go ahead and do IT anyway. What ever happened to being rewarded later following a good deed...LOL Not too sure about Somalia, but if the DRC peacefully separated into tribal or cultural nations, it certainly wouldn't end there. We're back to greed and getting rich quick. I have never been of the opinion that those folks will live together as long as some are better off than the rest.



    Other than what I conclude is the DRC's answer (not that I think its the best answer), I have no real clue how to turn off the current trend. Sadly, if something doesn't happen quickly, we'll have 2 or 3 generations to wait out before anything does take hold. It is little more than blood and treasure, and far too easy to use ethnicity as the driving force when your soldiers have yet to complete 3rd grade

    Regards, Stan
    Stan,

    Can't disagree with your thoughts, especially since you have BOG experience that I lack. From what I read about Africa, I am reminded of how I saw Okinawa a year after reversion--seemed the "person in the street" learned the worst habits from the former occupiers (or colonial powers) and from their new rulers--That is really too bad. Wish I knew how to get "the apple to fall" a lot farther from the tree other than trying to set a better example now and waiting several generations. (I'm as impatient as any other typical American I guess.) Seems like we need to let them learn the hard way (like the prodigal child you mentioned) and be prepared to keep away the other "grown up" nations who would try, to our detriment, to take advantage of their youthful missteps.
    Last edited by wm; 12-05-2008 at 08:11 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Odom View Post
    Understand your concerns and believe me I don't expect "goodness and light" to burst from the Heart of Darkness over the next decade. What I would suggest is possible that local states built around ethnic and commercial interests locally could emerge, survive, and develop a a sense of polity that could attract greater followings. If that sounds Polly Annish, it is to a certain degree.

    But the opposite track--always trying to prop up a central government--does not work as repeatedly proved in the 48 years since Congo became an independent "nation". An independent Kivu or Kasai or Katanga may be more viable than Leopoldville/Kinshasa (which truly has been more of a city state than a national capital). I would apply the same model to the region of Somalia as the Finnish article you posted did.

    Best

    Tom
    Hey Tom,
    Well, that's a bit optimistic for you
    I concur that breaking up the DRC would ease management of an otherwise vast country controlled by a unitary system of (ahem) government. To quote you from 94, "The Fate of Zaire would be determined in Goma, not Kinshasa". Too bad few listened back then. The same probably holds true today. If the eastern region is not settled, ethnic ties will barely get a foothold in commerce. At this point I don't see much interest in establishing much of anything financially driven competing with hundreds of ethnic groups. The will of the people is dead and the politicians and military are stuck in place as if we were still in 1994.

    Way off topic...

    I recall some London think tank commenting on the UN's decision to augment MONUC with another 3,100 troops. Something like needing 100,000 troops and also hoping Obama as an envoy might find a settlement.

    Now that's pollyannish!

    Regards, Stan
    Last edited by Stan; 12-05-2008 at 08:25 PM. Reason: forgot the friggin R in Kuntry !
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    Default EU NAVFOR Somalia

    The EU operation is the first of its kind to be commanded by a Briton

    Six ships and three surveillance planes from at least eight EU countries, including the UK, France and Germany, will escort aid and merchant ships.

    This military operation, called EU NAVFOR Somalia (operation "Atalanta"), will be conducted in support of UN Security Council Resolutions 1814 (2008), 1816 (2008), 1838 (2008) and 1846 (2008) in order to contribute to:

    ...the protection of vessels of the WFP (World Food Programme) delivering food aid to displaced persons in Somalia;

    ...the protection of vulnerable vessels cruising off the Somali coast, and the deterrence, prevention and repression of acts of piracy and armed robbery off the Somali coast.
    There's also a snappy new site and flag for The Maritime Security Centre – Horn of Africa (MSCHOA)
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    Folks may not like the German contribution to NATO efforts in A-Stan, but this article shows promise of the support in the pirate venue.

    Germany to Deploy Up to 1,400 to Fight Pirates

    The uproar over pirates off the Gulf of Aden has led the German government to contribute a naval frigate to an EU mission along the Somali coast. More soldiers may be on the way. In the meantime German helicopters have defended a pair of merchant ships from pirate speedboats.

    As European enthusiasm for the American-led "War on Terror" continues to wane, Europe is assembling a substantial military force to send to the Gulf of Aden. Call it the "War on Piracy" -- and Germany, this time, has not been shy.

    Although the German Defense Ministry refuses to confirm the number, a report on Tuesday in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung says that the government is considering deploying up to 1400 troops to combat Somali piracy. By way of comparison, Berlin currently contributes about 3,500 troops to the war in Afghanistan.
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    New Proceedings articles on piracy.

    They're all pretty good:

    Great history of piracy and how modern pirates fit into it.

    The Golden Age of Piracy—from approximately 1570 to around 1730—was an era when robbery on the high seas was widespread, lucrative, and threatening. Although nowadays it has been romanticized in such films as Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean trilogy, piracy back then was actually violent, frightening, destabilizing, and thoroughly illegitimate, at least from the point of view of governing authorities. Its history provides a variety of case studies and models that illustrate how these groups operated and to what degree their activities continued, despite opposition and military confrontation.

    In turn, these models offer ways to analyze the pirates of the contemporary world—including those now operating off the coasts of Africa—so we can ascertain their viability and learn how to combat them. Ultimately, case studies reveal that long-term, intractable, flourishing piracy is a complex activity that relies on five integral factors: an available population of potential recruits, a secure base of operations, a sophisticated organization, some degree of outside support, and cultural bonds that engender vibrant group solidarity. Activities that interfere with the smooth workings of any of these factors weaken piracy's sustainability.
    This article debunks the piracy-is-terrorsm meme and argues the threat is overstated:

    Modern pirates bear little resemblance to popular romantic Hollywood characters. Increasingly violent and greedy, their actions seem an affront to the very ideals of Western civilization. Armchair admirals and politicians are quick to shake their fists, avowing, "Something must be done." Maritime industry is quick to follow, with unsettling incident accounts and dire financial projections. Yet, more informed analysis of piracy reveals that the impact in blood and treasure is altogether minimal.

    Indeed, common misperceptions abound. While maritime piracy incidents capture media attention and generate international calls for action, the piracy threat is in fact overstated. It is nothing more than high-seas criminal activity, better addressed by law enforcement agencies than warships. As a localized nuisance, it should not serve to shape maritime force structure or strategy.
    And for you lawyerly types, a pretty good overview of the law regarding piracy:

    Once the pirates were in custody, the way ahead became less clear as the destroyer's commanding officer, and more broadly, the American government and the international community confronted the myriad diplomatic and legal challenges of piracy suppression in the 21st century. Who would investigate and prosecute the case? Where would the pirates be held, and by whom? What about the Indian crew members, all of them witnesses to the crime, and what would happen to their ship and cargo?

    The successful interdiction by the Churchill sparked a global effort to develop a modern playbook for confronting piracy. In the United States, the Bush administration began to develop a policy consistent with national maritime strategy, which culminated in a comprehensive piracy policy governing diplomatic and legal action and signed by President George W. Bush in 2007. This establishes a framework for warships that encounter or interrupt acts of maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea, as well as for agencies charged with facilitating the prosecution of perpetrators and the repatriation of victims and witnesses. But because much of the ocean's surface is beyond state jurisdiction, effective piracy repression demands international action and coordination.

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Default Somali pirates unhappy over Faina ransom delays

    Jeez, a deal was concluded and where's the cash already.

    This is too good; Pirates complaining about prompt payments

    KIEV, December 8 (RIA Novosti) - The Somali pirates holding the Ukrainian cargo ship the Faina are disgruntled with delays in the payment of a ransom, the Ukrainian ICTV television station said on Monday, citing a pirate.

    According to the pirate, who called himself Ahmed, an agreement on the payment of a ransom was reached last week but the ship's owners have yet to hand over the money.

    The U.S. military has moved away from the Faina to create a corridor for the ransom to be delivered, and to guarantee the pirates safe exit from the ship," he said. U.S. Navy warships had earlier surrounded the vessel.
    I say sink the tub toy and the T-72s, pirates et al
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    Default International conference

    BBC News has a short report on this conference: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7782016.stm and full of overt, diplomatic posturing. Whether any action follows is unclear.

    davidbfpo

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    Default Anti-piracy action with style

    Couldn't resist this, the picture says more than the newspaper story from aboard an Italian destroyer: http://www.gadsdentimes.com/article/...63020&tc=yahoo

    Sorry Stan failed to move the picture over, check the sailor out and yes there is no ammunition in the MG42.

    davidbfpo

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    Default A belated response to ....

    Entropy's post # 70 (link for "lawyerly types"). Here is a statute at its best - simplicity.

    18 USC § 1651. Piracy under law of nations

    Whoever, on the high seas, commits the crime of piracy as defined by the law of nations, and is afterwards brought into or found in the United States, shall be imprisoned for life.
    The only change since Tripoli has been removal of the death penalty.

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    Default Now the Chinese are coming

    The Chinese navy (PLAN) are to deploy two warships to the Gulf of Aden, after Xmas: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7789303.stm

    I do wonder whether all the navies there are co-ordinated; I suspect the Indian and Chinese navies will not join the CTF / EU flotilla.

    davidbfpo

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    According to Euronews it's been 600 years since the Chinese did such a thing. One wonders if they're still in practice.

    Then there's this from the UN

    UN Allows Land and Air Strikes to Hunt Somalian Pirates

    The Council's move came as the US for the first time supported deployment of the UN peacekeepers in the war torn country which does not have working government for last 17 years. Most of the southern part is controlled by Islamists and the government recognised by the United Nations hardly holds sway over any territory and is weak and divided.

    The spurt in the pirates who have earned millions of dollars in ransom by hijacking ships in major sea lanes have created panic and several countries have sent naval ships but without much effect.

    The Council decided to give wide powers to the countries whose Navies are operating in areas as diplomats said they were handicapped as they could not pursue pirates on land in Somalia. But by some accounts, the pirates are leading luxurious lives in Somalia on the money obtained from ransoms.

    US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who attended the Council's meeting yesterday, said Washington would set up a contact group to coordinate and enhance anti-piracy efforts and called for setting up a United Nations peacekeeping force by the end of the year.
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    Default Somalia: background report

    From The Economist: http://www.economist.com/world/midea...=hptextfeature

    Interesting and piracy is only a side issue.

    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    According to Euronews it's been 600 years since the Chinese did such a thing. One wonders if they're still in practice.
    Apparently Chinese fishermen are:

    China sailor recalls pirate fight

    BBC News, 14:45 GMT, Friday, 19 December 2008

    The captain of a Chinese ship has told the BBC how he and his crew fought off a gang of armed Somali pirates with petrol bombs and water cannon.

    Nine pirates boarded the Zhenhua 4 on Wednesday but were forced off the ship by Capt Peng Weiyuan and his crew after they mounted an unexpected fightback.

    Helicopters from a multi-national force also took part in the four hour battle, which saw the pirates back down.
    If the story is accurate, this sure took some cojones (or the Chinese equivalent):

    "After the first attack they retreated but somehow they got very good weapons - anti-tank weapons - which they fired at us, and succeeded in coming up to our living quarters.

    "They came to the first platform which is very close to our living quarters.
    "We were locked inside and the door was very thick. They were shouting 'open the door'. So we climbed further up and we used everything to threaten them, bottles, petrol.

    "Eventually we used high-pressure water cannon to shoot at them. They were also shooting at us and one bullet passed me about 10in (25cm) away.

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Default German navy foils Somali pirates

    Justice on the high seas... German Style

    Six Somali pirates were captured by sailors of the frigate Karlsruhe in the Gulf of Aden.

    However, the pirates were immediately released on the orders of the German government, officials told the BBC.

    "We had forces on board the frigate, and they used fast small boats, and together with the helicopter we were able to surround the pirates and disarm them," he said.

    He said the decision not to detain or arrest them was taken by the German government in Berlin.

    A spokesman for the EU's mission off Somalia, Cdr Achim Winkler, told the BBC's Europe Today programme that Germany would only bring pirates to justice where German interests were hurt.

    This would be the case if a German ship was attacked or German citizens were killed or injured, he said.
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