The Evolving Terrorist Threat in Southeast Asia

[Bill Moore]

http://www.eurasiareview.com/1007201...link-analysis/

A New ‘Caliphate’ In Middle East: Is There An Abu Sayyaf-ISIS Link? – Analysis

A video of a purported member of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) pledging support to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) surfaced recently. With an apparent spike in ASG-related activities, this is interpreted as evidence of convergence between the groups. However, the localised factors that motivate ASG factions should not be ignored.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCOA97_o1nU

I agree with their analytical conclusion for ASG. They're little more than thugs masquerading as jihadists.

The ASG remains a localised movement. Its subscription to the jihadist narrative is passive and superficial. It has yet to make its mark in the online world and would unlikely do so in the near future. Thus, state responses should always be aware of and be cautious of quickly ascribing ideological motivations to what essentially are socio-economic issues. The Philippines’s social and economic milieu creates distinct dynamics that may be wholly different even from close neighbours like Indonesia or Malaysia.

On the other hand, the ASG isn't representative of the larger Muslim community in the Philippines. The potential for recruitment certainly exists, as already demonstrated in Indonesia.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/20...danao-possible

MNLF official: ISIS recruitment in Mindanao possible

MILF said the threat is not in the two groups joining the ISIS because their number is “too tiny to be felt and make a difference.”

“The ISIS is overflowing with volunteers from all over the world, including those from the United States, United Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia,” it said.

“The threat really comes from the extremism espoused by the ISIS. Ideas are contagious and infectious. Wild ideas are attractive to those who want adventures and pre-occupied with hatred and revenge.”

MILF leaders went on to say that the Gov of the Philippines needs to deal with ASG and BIFF to avoid the potential of these groups joining ISIS. True, and since both of these groups are criminal-terrorists in character it would be better for the region, and for MILF it would help clear a path to consolidating political power in Mindanao. A potential win-win for most.

http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/intern...ria-for-israel

On a side note Philippine peace keeping forces, unintentionally on their part, are now in a fire fight was al-Nusra rebels in the Golan Heights. The good news is they refused to lay down their arms and opted to defend their positions as authorized in their mandate. I believe some have now withdrawn into Syria, since peacekeeping is apparently out the window now since Syria no longer effectively controls that region. Is al-Qaeda preparing to attack Israel to gain more support from the broader Muslim community?

[Dayuhan]

One factor that's in the center of the Mindanao picture right now is the second recent attempt at a negotiated peace agreement between the MILF and the Government. A few years back an agreement was negotiated and approved by both sides, only to be shot down by the Supreme Court, which did considerable damage to the more moderate negotiation-oriented factions in the MILF. The current negotiations have been going on for some time, and are at real risk of getting caught up in end-of-term politicking. The Aquino administration has a bad relationship with the Supreme Court, and the political opposition are jumping on an anti-agreement bandwagon for political reasons: opposition to a peace agreement in Mindanao is an attention-getter and goes over well with the majority Christian population, much of which views all Muslims as violent terrorists and sees any move toward autonomy as an infringement on national sovereignty. Anti-Muslim prejudice in the majority population is deeply rooted and difficult to challenge, and popular awareness of the actual history is very low.

If the second agreement is shot down by legal and political maneuvering, that will deeply undercut the credibility of the more moderate MILF factions and boost the standing of radicals who have said all along that negotiation with the Government is pointless. The radicals are not necessarily associated with ISIS in any way, and even in the case of those who have made pro-ISIS statements the relationship appears to be more nominal than practical, but that can certainly produce a return to open confrontation and more violence, with or without ISIS.

That of course applies mainly to the MILF heartland on Mindanao itself, among the Maguindanao and Maranao groups.

In the islands to the west, the Tausug/Yakan/Sama territory, things are a bit different. The MNLF is highly factionalized, lacks effective leadership, and is in many ways a spent force, though what's left of it would certainly like to see the government squash the ASG, which they see as competition.

For its own part, the ASG is so unstructured that it barely deserves to be called a group at all. One reality often overlooked in these discussions is that these "groups" often do not have discrete memberships: clusters of armed men migrate among them at their own convenience.

This point:

state responses should always be aware of and be cautious of quickly ascribing ideological motivations to what essentially are socio-economic issues. The Philippines’s social and economic milieu creates distinct dynamics that may be wholly different even from close neighbours like Indonesia or Malaysia.

is only half true. Socioeconomic conditions are a real problem, but identifying them as a core issue invites yet another misguided attempt to solve the problem with economic aid. Behind the socioeconomic conditions lies a pernicious network of "big man" politics, including both the government and the rebel factions, in which the "big men" are exempt from law, the coercive power of the state is applied more often for private gain than public, and theft of public resources is the rule, not the exception. The socioeconomic conditions in the area will not improve until the "big men" are brought within the rule of law, and the government needs to start with bringing its own representatives within the rule of law.

The Muslim movements in the islands west of Mindanao are ripe for the emergence of new leadership, which under the present circumstances is likely to be radical, whether or not it's associated with ISIS or AQ.

[Bill Moore]

Article posted on the SWJ News Roundup

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la...ry.html#page=1

Meet two Indonesians who are training to join Islamic State

"I think there's some evidence that there's enough of a support base [in Indonesia] that if they got the green light from ISIS — which they haven't yet — they could quite quickly set up a structure of ISIS here," Jones said. "It would be tiny and there would be lots of opposition, but it raises concerns [that they might] follow other kinds of orders from ISIS, which could include violence."

As many readers know, over half of the world's Muslims reside in South and Southeast Asia. The potential for extremism is alarming, but unfortunately despite our claims of dedicating effort to remain left of bang, we tend to ignore this and focus on the 5 meter knife fight.

According to an Australian intelligence report obtained by news website The Intercept, two Indonesian commercial pilots have pledged devotion to Islamic State. Ridwan Agustin, a former AirAsia pilot, may have already traveled to Syria

.

It doesn't many to have a strategic impact. ISIL conducts a more or less conventional in Syria and Iraq, and an atomized global surrogate war with self-radicalized individuals of various capabilities. An airline pilot controls a potential weapon of mass destruction.

"For Muslim people, there's a quite famous proverb: Live in dignity, or die in jihad. If we die doing this, we will have won."

[davidbfpo]

I have just copied ten posts in this thread to the Indonesia thread.