US economic power

[Norfolk]

It's hot, humid, and it's been more than six weeks since the end of Hockey Night in Canada, with two more months until the new season starts again. Canada Dangerous? - ya got that right. If folks don't get some of this, they tend to get a little edgy and irritable, hence:

Canada sounds dangerous

And beating the Wings? Note which team jerseys spend more time flat on the ice (refer to vid at the link provided above).

[Ken White]

and the fact that you chose Hockey and LaCrosse as national sports to emphasize that commitment...

[Ron Humphrey]

Is it just me or does this sound like some kind of ME type assasination. I mean the dude just up and goes to all the trouble to behead plus all the stabbing then just gives up. Wonder if we'll find out who was killed and things will start to click?

[marct]

Is it just me or does this sound like some kind of ME type assasination. I mean the dude just up and goes to all the trouble to behead plus all the stabbing then just gives up. Wonder if we'll find out who was killed and things will start to click?

The latest information is here.

[Entropy]

The latest information is here.

Very weird story....

[Ron Humphrey]

The latest information is here.

I stand by my prior statement even more

(We'll See)

[marct]

I agree Ron, totally weird. Personally, I blame it on news reports that the price of beer will be going up .

[wm]

Here's another "cut and run" story:

Gruesome crime shocks Greek isle
By Malcolm Brabant
BBC News, Athens

Police on the Greek island of Santorini have shot and injured a knifeman who decapitated his girlfriend and walked around the streets with her head.

Santorini--Hmmmm. Wasn't Stan there recently?

[Schmedlap]

Is it just me or does this sound like some kind of ME type assasination. I mean the dude just up and goes to all the trouble to behead plus all the stabbing then just gives up. Wonder if we'll find out who was killed and things will start to click?

Very good question. This sounds like a case for The Head Detective.

[Watcher In The Middle]

Natural-Gas Prices May Fall Next Year On Supply Surge
Dated: August 4, 2008
Cassandra Sweet, The Wall Street Journal

U.S. natural-gas prices could be in for a fall next year, when additional output from elsewhere in the world should enter the market.

Overseas production of gas that is supercooled into liquid form for ocean transport is set to increase by about one-third, to more than 11 trillion cubic feet by the end of next year, according to Waterborne Energy Inc., a Houston research firm that tracks the world-wide liquefied-natural-gas business. The U.S. sees LNG imports in 2009 surpassing last year's record levels.

"There is a huge bubble of LNG about to hit the market," said Waterborne President Steven Johnson.

Link to article

Now, apart from the effects on heating prices in much of the US, it also means that production (new drilling) is really paying off. That has some political ramifications here in the US, but's that's the really tiny part of the story.

The real story is that much of the production increase (and we're talking large increases here) is from places like the United States, Qatar, Indonesia, Nigeria, Russia, and even Yemen.

The reason this is important is that we are looking at a major supply "bubble" in LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) supply over the next few years, so anybody (read: Russia) who was hoping to capitalize on constrained LNG supply is seeing those hopes evaporate before their eyes - not going to happen. Looks to be almost the opposite.

Russia's oil production looks to be almost stagnant, and internal politics aren't making future production increases likely.

Russia’s Bubbling Oil Troubles

Exacerbating the high oil prices are production problems in Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter. Aging oil fields and a lack of infrastructure investment has led to the country’s first annual production decline in 10 years. Output fell 0.9% to 9.76 million barrels a day in the first five months 2008, Bloomberg reported.

Link to article

What Russia has been doing is investing money and production resources into producing natural gas, because the payoff is faster than for increasing oil production. Oil takes longer and costs more to produce. But their increased production is coming into a market which is starting to look like a production glut, and the Russians are going to need the money, particularly with all their foreign adventures they are starting to get back into.

But for the USA, this natural gas "bubble" has the potential to be great news on several different fronts. We generate a fair percentage of our electricity supply (particularly in CA) from natural gas, and most Midwestern heating is natural gas, so stable prices would be a good thing compared to what the providers were projecting at the end of 2007 (massive increases).

Overall - Good News.

[tequila]

Not a good thing when one of your major creditors talks like this:

U.S. has plundered world wealth with the dollar - People's Daily

Asia & Europe collaborating on global financial crisis

These moves strike at the heart of U.S. economic supremacy in the world, which is the basis for U.S. military and diplomatic supremacy. China is basically just talking #### right now, most likely bitter because their dollar bets are turning so bad, but the sentiment is there now that the USD should not remain the world's reserve currency forever.

This crisis will not be America's Suez moment, but that moment is rapidly approaching.

[Schmedlap]

Browsing this old thread, I came across an earlier forecast. We are not in a depression, so I would not expect half of these to come true, but the economy is hurting and some have begun...

If the US ever suffered a significant depression or other economic calamity then the world would need to think of something quick, because our economy is "too big to fail." If we go down, then Japan and China are going to be holding some worthless paper

Japan's currency is now appreciating at a wild pace. Our currency may have begun a genuine rebound because other countries are feeling the pain that we have brought and our currency may be comparatively safer.

... oil producers are going to see demand plummet...

Price is down more than 50% off its peak just a few months ago, dropping into the low $60's per barrel even after the announced cut in production.

... every country with a current account surplus is going to be living off of its reserves...

Japan has just announced it's first trade deficit in 26 years.

... Africa and the UN get no more money...

Well, it probably will require a depression for that to ever occur.

... South America gets the double whammy of no more aid and less demand for their illicit drugs

No data on this, but I have seen reports in business publications that strippers and prostitutes are seeing significant (double-digit percentage) declines in their revenues. If that is the case, it seems likely that a similar decline in drug consumption is also occuring.

[slapout9]

No data on this, but I have seen reports in business publications that strippers and prostitutes are seeing significant (double-digit percentage) declines in their revenues. If that is the case, it seems likely that a similar decline in drug consumption is also occuring.

People laugh at this stuff but what street prostitutes are paid/or not paid is one of the most reliable economic indicators I have ever seen. Also the number of NEW prostitutes is a very good indicator. Drug demand/price is not so accurate as far as decline because theft/burglaries ususally go up to cover the cost of drugs (which is happening and not being reported much in the media IMO) also puts more presssure on Hospital ER systems as people try to quit.

[Schmedlap]

People laugh at this stuff but what street prostitutes are paid/or not paid is one of the most reliable economic indicators I have ever seen.

I definitely agree.

Drug demand/price is not so accurate as far as decline because theft/burglaries ususally go up to cover the cost of drugs (which is happening and not being reported much in the media IMO) also puts more presssure on Hospital ER systems as people try to quit.

If memory serves me right, this is kind of your area of expertise (the analysis, not the drug use). Here is one thought that I had on the topic - I'm curious as to your reaction... I can't see this as compensating completely for the loss in disposable/smokable cash, since the burglaries take time and are not always successful - there must still be some significant downward pressure on the price. If nothing else, the junkie can plead with his dealer, "everybody in this fricken neighborhood has got ADT, a shotgun, or both! I need more time or a more reasonable price!" If every one of his customers is pleading that way, the dealer needs to realize that it's a rough economy and face the unpleasant fact that he needs to lower his price.

Your thoughts?

When the downturn starts hitting the smut peddlers, you know that these are tough times. Last week I had to settle for an iPod Nano instead of the 160GB, full-sized iPod. Why isn't my Congressman doing something about this? I'm in law school right now and almost all of my classmates are worried about their student loans. After they drink a few hundred dollars per week at the bar and go out for dinner at a restaurant five or six times per week, they hardly have enough left over to pay the interest on their loans. I think that I can finally relate to what my grandparents endured in the 1930s.

[slapout9]

Schmedlap, hard drug use is what economist call inelastic demand. It is a physical need not a want as the softer drugs are. So there is tremendous pressure on the user to get the money no matter what. Dealers do not usually negotiate with anyone if they sell hard drugs, soft drugs yes. That is why I said this activity is not as good an indicator as prostitution but it does have merit , just not as much.

You are in law school? check out the number of students who are turning to escorting as a way to make ends meet! I would do this in a very non-threatening way or they won't tell you. You will probably be shocked at the underground activity going on in this area. I new several strippers who put themselves through school that way. They worked 2 days a week(sometimes less), the rest of the time they concentrated on their studies to get very high GPA's.

[Schmedlap]

You are in law school? check out the number of students who are turning to escorting as a way to make ends meet! I would do this in a very non-threatening way or they won't tell you. You will probably be shocked at the underground activity going on in this area.

I lived in an apartment building with lots of law students in DC and knew of several who were hard-working escorts. Here, my law class is very small, everyone knows each other well, and I am surprised that none of that is going on. They are all obsessed with just going out to eat for lunch and dinner and binge drinking all night - and complaining about the high cost of health insurance. If anyone is slipping out to do escort duty, then they're doing it at the expense of not sleeping AT ALL. I'm glad that our gov't subsidizes federal student loans for them and gives them grants. Otherwise, how could they ever afford the tuition? And we certainly need more lawyers, especially those with destructive spending habits and unhealthy lifestyles.

[slapout9]

and we certainly need more lawyers, especially those with destructive spending habits and unhealthy lifestyles.

The little laugh icon is supposed to be here but I guess it was his break time.

[120mm]

I lived in an apartment building with lots of law students in DC and knew of several who were hard-working escorts. Here, my law class is very small, everyone knows each other well, and I am surprised that none of that is going on. They are all obsessed with just going out to eat for lunch and dinner and binge drinking all night - and complaining about the high cost of health insurance. If anyone is slipping out to do escort duty, then they're doing it at the expense of not sleeping AT ALL. I'm glad that our gov't subsidizes federal student loans for them and gives them grants. Otherwise, how could they ever afford the tuition? And we certainly need more lawyers, especially those with destructive spending habits and unhealthy lifestyles.

I think you need to update your signature line to add another "post of the day" kudo....

[slapout9]

Good article by James K. Galbraith on Americas Hybrid economy and what we really need to be doing. It's not Capitlism or Socialism it's Systemism!!! as in we need to plan stuff we want to do!

http://harpers.org/archive/2008/11/0082254

[Shek]

Schmedlap, hard drug use is what economist call inelastic demand. It is a physical need not a want as the softer drugs are. So there is tremendous pressure on the user to get the money no matter what. Dealers do not usually negotiate with anyone if they sell hard drugs, soft drugs yes. That is why I said this activity is not as good an indicator as prostitution but it does have merit , just not as much.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COf2bQEQ7Zw