Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Military Commentary

[kaur]

IISS Strategic Comment devoted to Georgia-RF war.

http://www.iiss.org/publications/str.../latest-issue/

Russian SU-25 in Georgia. In the end of video you can see damage done by Georgian SAM's.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYRBSpi2u8U

[kaur]

Very brave speculation by Felgenhauer.

The strategic exercise “Stability 2008” is no improvisation in response to the crisis of relations with the West after the conflict in Georgia. The defense minister Anatoly Serdiukov has noted it has been in preparation for more than one year. The intrusive troops had been mobilized and concentrated in the front lines by the beginning of August during the military exercise titled “Caucasus 2008”. Simultaneously, additional power forces were prepared for strategic support of Georgian operation, as it was not known till the end whether Americans would interfere or not. This time we landed on both feet, and now the mobilized forces and means are being trained for future, in this mega-exercise. It’s been for the first time after the Soviet Union collapse that our authority carries out military exercise intending direct preparation for the large-scale war with the West.

http://en.novayagazeta.ru/data/2008/72/03.html

[jmm99]

Blast kills 7 Russian soldiers in South Ossetia
7 Russian soldiers killed when car explodes outside military headquarters in South Ossetia
MISHA DZHINDZHIKHASHVILI
AP News
Oct 03, 2008 15:57 EST

A car exploded Friday, killing seven soldiers outside Russia's military headquarters in South Ossetia, and Russian authorities charged it was a terrorist bombing meant to wreck the tense cease-fire that ended their war with Georgia.

Georgia's Interior Ministry blamed Russia, accusing it of arranging the blast to provide a pretext for delaying next week's scheduled withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgian territory around South Ossetia and another Kremlin-backed separatist region, Abkhazia.....

http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=406557

Before you draw any conclusions from the headlines, read the whole article.

Competence of Russian EOD ?

[Stan]

Competence of Russian EOD ?

Two quick comments regarding the situation and article:

There has been widespread looting and arson in ethnic Georgian villages in and around South Ossetia since the war. Residents and refugees from the area have reported the theft or confiscation of their cars by South Ossetian militias and marauders.

There's much more than mere anecdotal evidence of looting and this particular scenario affords an ideal opportunity to get into an otherwise "secure" area and cause mayhem. Based on our initial forensics, the Russians in occupied areas have far more to fear than simple VBIEDs.

Despite high tension since the war, Russian troops at checkpoints on roads leading into South Ossetia from Georgian-controlled territory often carry out only cursory searches of cars, glancing in trunks and waving drivers through.

They call themselves sappers with some actual demolitions background and even have Peace Keepers that, have and employ howitzers.

But, their Engineers and MPs are not qualified for the task at hand as noted here:

The explosion occurred Friday outside the headquarters of the Russian peacekeeping forces in the breakaway Georgian republic. A car bomb went off in a vehicle that had been moved to the capital, Tskhinvali, from a village in the buffer zone outside South Ossetia controlled by Russian forces.

As a returning volunteer opined: "This famous place now resembles the last bus stop before the end of the world!"

[kaur]

So, is this insurgency, urban guerilla activity, terrorism etc?

It seems that North Caucasus daily routine has entered throurgh Roki tunnel.

[jmm99]

and thought twice about posting it at all - which means I am probably screwing up.

Anyway, here is one way to cook up some very complicated theories - which seem subject to Crabtree's Bludgeon (IMO):

October 6, 2008
Justin Raimondo
Al-Qaeda in the Caucasus
A mysterious car bombing in Ossetia raises the specter of a sinister alliance ....

http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=13555

Hard to separate some possible truths here from fantasies.

[Stan]

... thought twice about posting it at all - which means I am probably screwing up.

Hard to separate some possible truths here from fantasies.

Not a bad find, but there's no evidence to back up this theory. The vehicle in question was stolen and later in front of the HQ when it went high order; and not at some patrol check point in the buffer zone. Nice touch though, adding a little Al-Qaeda to the equation.

No wonder why they won't allow EU and NATO observers into that area (just yet).

Sorry, but I'm having a hard time with this article