Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Military Commentary

[Stan]

Considering what I have available regarding aerial delivery ordnance data (or, the failure thereof), I wonder what the Russkies actual know about their overall (ahem) capabilities. Based on real data from 12 SEP 08, their "dud" rate is over 50% and climbing. That's not to say they even hit their targets... whatever those were.

However, that said perhaps it's Russian tactics to leave 250 to 500 kg bombs underground and unexploded to tie up logistics

Kaur, anything in the Russian language press about delivered (dropped) Russian ordnance? Kind of hoping their egos will permit them to brag... They're real good about showing us what the Georgians abandoned in South Ossetia (albeit rounds without fuses and packed munitions), and the latest about their reactive armor sent in empty , but little more.

Regards, Stan

[jmm99]

at Moscow Defense Brief.

Implications of the Georgia-Russia War for Global Politics
Fedor Lukyanov, Editor in Chief, Russia in Global Affairs
#3 (13), 2008
.......
Neighboring states now face the issue of how to guarantee their own security. Their dilemma is clear. One path is to seek the patronage of a strong state from outside of the region, finding support that goes beyond political one, to include real security guarantees. The other path is to conclude an agreement with Russia for the same type of guarantees against external threats, which also hedges against a possible worsening of relations with Russia itself.

http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/3-2008/item2/article2/

Ah ..., back to the Treaties of Friendship.

If you remember Breakfast at Tiffany's: "Do they still put trinkets in Crackerjack boxes ?" "Yes" "Ah.. That is comforting."

same source
The reemergence of deterrence recalls not so much the Cold War (in the absence of real ideological conflict) but the type of competition typical of the 19th century. Ideological and political confusion only deepens the various imbalances that have accumulated in the world.

Perhaps, some evidence of the theory (which I think has some credence) that Vladimir Putin and Sergei Ivanov are very much influenced by the 19th century Russian nationalists. Small comfort for small countries in its path - that bear was very willing to devour.

It is interesting that to MDB, we have a "Stalinist North Korea" - so, Uncle Joe is not quite rehabilitated.

Anyway, a slick site (still under construction) - brings back memories.

[kaur]

Georgia has released intercepted telephone calls purporting to show that part of a Russian armored regiment crossed into the separatist enclave of South Ossetia nearly a full day before Georgia’s attack on the capital, Tskhinvali, late on Aug. 7.

The intercepts circulated last week among intelligence agencies in the United States and Europe, part of a Georgian government effort to persuade the West and opposition voices at home that Georgia was under invasion and attacked defensively. Georgia argues that as a tiny and vulnerable nation allied with the West, it deserves extensive military and political support.

Georgia also provided audio files of the intercepts along with English translations to The New York Times, which made its own independent translation from the original Ossetian into Russian and then into English.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/wo...r=3&ref=europe

[Stan]

Kaur, I understand there's now precise evidence that the Russians were already deep South as of 09 AUG PM and early morning 10 AUG.

I do however enjoy reading Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's recent rebuttals...

Our military acted in response to aggression efficiently and professionally. Maybe that is what our critics simply cannot forgive us?

It was an able ground operation. That was why we could reach our limited objectives so fast.

[jmm99]

A while back, I asked (rhetorical question) where Sergei Ivanov was ca. 7 Aug. Now, I know, sorta ...

(from Times article, p.2)
Gen. Lt. Nikolai Uvarov of Russia ... said President Dmitri A. Medvedev had been on a cruise on the Volga River. Mr. Putin was at the Olympics in Beijing.
“The minister of defense, by the way, was on vacation in the Black Sea somewhere,” he said.

Not the worst place in the world to be for a Georgian operation - wonder where in the Black Sea. Maybe, the good general protested too loudly.

PS - Stan. I know three is a troika. If we add your buddy Lavrov, we get a fourka - is that the Russian version of a FORD.

[kaur]

IISS Strategic Comment devoted to Georgia-RF war.

http://www.iiss.org/publications/str.../latest-issue/

Russian SU-25 in Georgia. In the end of video you can see damage done by Georgian SAM's.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYRBSpi2u8U

[kaur]

Very brave speculation by Felgenhauer.

The strategic exercise “Stability 2008” is no improvisation in response to the crisis of relations with the West after the conflict in Georgia. The defense minister Anatoly Serdiukov has noted it has been in preparation for more than one year. The intrusive troops had been mobilized and concentrated in the front lines by the beginning of August during the military exercise titled “Caucasus 2008”. Simultaneously, additional power forces were prepared for strategic support of Georgian operation, as it was not known till the end whether Americans would interfere or not. This time we landed on both feet, and now the mobilized forces and means are being trained for future, in this mega-exercise. It’s been for the first time after the Soviet Union collapse that our authority carries out military exercise intending direct preparation for the large-scale war with the West.

http://en.novayagazeta.ru/data/2008/72/03.html