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Thread: Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Military Commentary

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  1. #1
    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wildcat View Post
    Saakashvili is making accusations of violence by Russian tanks in Gori. The Russians are denying any presence in Gori and making counter-accusations of attacks by Georgian troops. Some journalists are saying they've seen no Russian tanks in Gori. Others (the BBC) are saying they have. Very murky details at the moment, but the cease-fire hasn't been formalized yet and it appears ready to break at any moment.
    About 3 hours ago, Sky News just had a phone interview with their man in Gori, standing next to a Russian Tank. Ain't the information age great!
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

    - The job of the British Army out here is to kill or capture Communist Terrorists in Malaya.
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    Council Member Wildcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    About 3 hours ago, Sky News just had a phone interview with their man in Gori, standing next to a Russian Tank. Ain't the information age great!
    Yeah, I just checked Sky News and found this tidbit.

    Russia had denied its troops were making their way to Tbilisi.

    But Anatoly Nagovitsyn, the Russian military's deputy chief of staff, had also categorically denied that there were any tanks on the streets of Gori....

    Sky News correspondents Stuart Ramsay and Jason Farrell confirmed there were tanks on the streets in Gori, which has suffered extensively from Russian bombing raids....

    "(The tanks) just rolled past us with their guns at the ready, definitely looking like they were ready to engage," he said.
    Might they be Georgian tanks who moved in when the Russians supposedly vacated the premises? Or has all of Georgia's armor been destroyed by now?

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    Photos by 1 photographer, who moved with Russian troops.

    http://lsd-25.ru/2008/08/14/voyna-v-...iya-babchenko/

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Photos by 1 photographer, who moved with Russian troops.

    http://lsd-25.ru/2008/08/14/voyna-v-...iya-babchenko/
    Great link and photos, Kaur !
    Not to sound ungrateful, but it seems all those burning tank shots are the same 4 or 5 in all the Russian press. Begs the question: Just how many Georgian tanks were "actually" destroyed by Russian armor?

    On another note, looks like we're cleared to go there and help out, as long as we dress like civilians

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    FPRI, 13 Aug 08: Russia Resurgent: An Initial Look at Russian Military Performance in Georgia
    .....No doubt Russia’s military action in Georgia will prompt many countries to view Moscow in a sharper light, from the capitals of Europe to Beijing and Tokyo. However the world eventually interprets Russia’s intervention in Georgia’s civil conflict—whether as a “humanitarian effort” as Moscow portrays or as a “full scale invasion” as Tbilisi portrays—it does demonstrate the Russian military’s renewed ability to prosecute a relatively complex, high-intensity combined arms operation. Still, the evidently high state of readiness of such a broad array of Russian military units across all three services raises more questions about Moscow’s intentions and planning prior to the outbreak of hostilities.

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    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default They seem to be far more impressed than I happen to be.

    IIRC, the Russians had moved elements nearer to Georgia back in June-early July as a counter to the biennial Immediate Response Exercise (US, Georgia, Armenia and others) that began 15 Jul and ended 28 Jul. There's a lot more we don't know, open source, than we do but based on what I've seen since they had probably instituted provocations or very at least tacitly encouraged Georgia to attack, I suspect the fine hand of the FSB and a long time -- a year or more -- contingency plan. Time will tell.

    Such a plan likely included all the things cited in the linked article and quite probably entailed prep, rehearsals and moves well prior to May or June predicated on Russian plan execution at Endex of the JEX and the beginning of the Olympics. Add to that some of the comments above in this thread and I don't see any significant improvement in Russian performance -- other than use of the media -- and, importantly, Vlad's shrewdness and will, which should not be underestimated.

    Who, of course, was out of town and on international TV at the time, thus having a perfect alibi -- and allowing Dmitry to appear to be the BBMFIC. He loves it when a plan comes together...

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    I agree more with this opinion.

    Still, for serious military analysts, the remarkable thing has been how little Russian performance has changed over the years (and decades, and even centuries). Overwhelming force—the sledgehammer blow—remains the Russian approach to warfare. Nothing wrong with that in theory—it’s essentially the Powell Doctrine (which the Bush administration ignored in Iraq, leading to a near-disaster). The problem is that the Russian military remains indiscriminate in its targeting and horribly sloppy in its execution. Their sledgehammers tend to hit everything in the general area.
    http://www.armchairgeneral.com/assau...a-conflict.htm

    OPFOR Battle Book ST-107 gives better overview.

    Only outsider who who has entered Tshinvali.

    http://www.hrw.org/doc?t=europe&c=georgi
    Last edited by kaur; 08-14-2008 at 06:17 PM.

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    Default Felix K. Chang's analysis (#170)

    should end anyone's thoughts about how the Georgians should have defended their border (sealing the Roki Tunnel, etc.).

    One wonders what old Uncle Joe (½ Geo., ½ Oss.) would think about all of this - as the Russians took his home town of Gori.

    Joseph Stalin was born Ioseb Besarionis Dzhugashvili in Gori, Tiflis to Besarion Dzhugashvili, an Ossetian [8] cobbler who owned his own workshop, and Ketevan Geladze a Georgian who was born a serf.
    [8] Simon Sebag Montefiore. Young Stalin. 2007. ISBN 978-0-297-85068-7 p19
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Stalin

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