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Thread: Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Military Commentary

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  1. #1
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
    did I. Is anything in the article factually plausible ?

    And, I also caught the factual error re: checkpoint.
    I'm not going to take the whole article apart, but will comment on a few paras that based on anecdotal evidence are, pathetically off, way off base.

    they stopped a car with Georgian license plates in which the occupants were armed. The car was taken to a Russian checkpoint, where it promptly exploded. Nine Russian soldiers, including a Russian general in the nearby headquarters, were killed, and seven others were wounded.
    The HQ was in the capital, not anywhere remotely near the buffer zone, or any check point. My previous point about Engineers performing EOD - Two very different skill fields (other than perhaps the ability to use explosives, which is also in question).

    A car bomb in the Caucasus?

    This is a weapon, and a method of terrorism, with a very familiar signature. It points to the introduction of a rather sinister aspect to the Russia-Georgia conflict – the entrance of radical Islamic elements on the field of battle, and clearly on the side of the Georgians.
    Not sure I follow the author here. We have better criminals that barely use 250 grams of HE and do far more damage. The sad fact herein is: Russian soldiers had been stealing vehicles and property, taking said directly to the General for (ahem) inspection (and redistribution of possessed assets), and they established a pattern that even a 1st grader could follow.

    Yet, far from being all-controlling, the Russkies are hardly in the drivers' seat on the far fringes of their supposedly resurgent empire...
    This part I agree with. They got caught with their pants down thinking the Georgians gave up. Maybe they should consider the fact that nearly 30 percent of their targets were not hit, and, less than half of what was dropped failed to go high order. WWII munitions on a modern battlefield - maybe they were getting rid of their stockpiles

    How many millions are we sending to Tbilisi? We're training their coast guard on American ships anchored in the Black Sea. Are we also training their intelligence service in the fine art of car bombing – or do they farm that out to the real experts?
    I think the total is now collectively 25 billion

    Pure conjecture or, Bravo Sierra.

    Sorry, can't do much more with the Obama and McCain syndromes (don't even want to).

    Regards, Stan
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

  2. #2
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    Default Thanks for the insight ...

    It was interesting reading the article just discussed, and others in the popular press and spin sites, after reading through (and being a bit involved in) the threads here on Georgia.

    Let us say that I was able to be much more fact-critical than I would have been without the knowledge gained from SWC. That applies to many other areas as well.

    and, as to this:

    Sorry, can't do much more with the Obama and McCain syndromes (don't even want to).
    agreed, agreed & agreed - oh well, less than a month left. Deo Gratias.

  3. #3
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Default From a friend in the Buffer Zone

    A quick email sitrep from an (ahem) observer in the buffer zone:

    Overall, life in Georgia is slowly returning to normalcy with locals going about their daily routines. Interesting to note are those locals that typically cross the buffer zones and Russian checkpoints without giving it another thought. It appears that it will only be a matter of time before everything is back to normal. There are even signs of the previous infrastructure returning to normal at schools, stores and government institutions.

    NGO HALO Trust is spooling up for their first month working on the UXO problems. Their initial task will be to control areas and declare those either free of UXO, or in need of additional clearance operations. HALO thinks 6 to 9 months.

    Departing Russians

    05 OCT planned departures actually began on the morning of the 8th !
    The initial plan called for Russian units to depart in unison beginning at 0800. However, some fruity MG Kulakhmetovi ordered that each checkpoint would depart only when at least 3 EUMM members were present. If that wasn’t already confusing for the Russian troops, the good general decided that each checkpoint could depart as individuals. This only led to a further delay with some of the checkpoints deserted and “Engineering” equipment left behind. (Trust me when I say their equipment is stone age Bravo Sierra).

    The Georgian locals are convinced this was intentional with Russians returning throughout the night to recover their equipment. On a side note, don’t the Russians give their peacekeepers port-a-poties when deployed? I mean seriously, they like took dumps everywhere. The Russian troops are still hanging around Akhalgori as if it was strategic (it is after all real friggin close to Tbilisi).

    Say, does that Colonel you worked with in Africa still do Ace hardware? Holy Moses, he could make a killing here.
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

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    Finland Sees a Familiar Pattern in Photos From the Georgia Conflict

    MOSCOW — One of the stranger questions to emerge after the August conflict between Russia and Georgia: Did Russians go to war in camouflage filched from Finland?
    Today, the two countries share a quiet 800-mile border. Asked whether Finnish authorities were concerned about distinguishing their troops from Russians on the battlefield, Captain Karhuvaara noted that the uniforms under scrutiny belong to troops in the Russian Ministry of the Interior, which oversees police forces inside Russia. “If Russian Ministry of the Interior troops would invade Finland,” he said, “we would have big trouble.”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/wo...se&oref=slogin

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    The Georgia conflict of August 2008: Exponent of Russia's assertive security policy,

    Marcel de Haas

    Carré Januari 2009

    However, if the Kremlin maintains its military
    ambitions and is capable of realizing them, then the West,
    confronted with a resurgent Russia, might have to change
    its defence plans into those in which collective defence has
    once again a central focus.
    http://www.clingendael.nl/publicatio...20conflict.pdf

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    ARAG, 6 Mar 09: Provocation, Deception, Entrapment: The Russo-Georgian Five Day War
    Key Points

    • Russian annexation of Abakhazia and South Ossetia has increased instability throughout the region.

    • Georgians will not accept annexation of their territory

    • Within weeks snow will melt increasing the danger of war

    • Tbilisi must be made aware of the need for restraint

    • Cross-border ethnic groups possessing dual nationality are vulnerable to manipulation
    Complete 21-page paper at the link.

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    Wartime Approaching in the Caucasus

    March 12, 2009

    The period when war was physically impossible in the Caucasus is now almost over, but the halfhearted attempts by European Union mediators to strengthen the ceasefire have accomplished virtually nothing.
    There are still several weeks left for the West to recognize the imminent threat and begin a high-level round of shuttle diplomacy to compel or coerce all sides to genuinely strengthen the ceasefire and disengage forces. Moscow must understand all the disadvantages of a new crisis and agree to strengthen the observer mission's mandate. The Georgians must find a way to contain internal political strife. The Ossetian and Abkhaz leaders must stop mindlessly provoking a new war. In short, a miracle is needed.
    http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_...ash=aef92993f9

    I just wonder why Flegenhauer left out variable "Russian internal clan fight". This has been getting sharper and sharper due to the economic crisis.
    Last edited by kaur; 03-13-2009 at 11:59 AM.

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