Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict - Military Commentary

[jmm99]

and thought twice about posting it at all - which means I am probably screwing up.

Anyway, here is one way to cook up some very complicated theories - which seem subject to Crabtree's Bludgeon (IMO):

October 6, 2008
Justin Raimondo
Al-Qaeda in the Caucasus
A mysterious car bombing in Ossetia raises the specter of a sinister alliance ....

http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=13555

Hard to separate some possible truths here from fantasies.

[Stan]

... thought twice about posting it at all - which means I am probably screwing up.

Hard to separate some possible truths here from fantasies.

Not a bad find, but there's no evidence to back up this theory. The vehicle in question was stolen and later in front of the HQ when it went high order; and not at some patrol check point in the buffer zone. Nice touch though, adding a little Al-Qaeda to the equation.

No wonder why they won't allow EU and NATO observers into that area (just yet).

Sorry, but I'm having a hard time with this article

[jmm99]

from Stan
Sorry, but I'm having a hard time with this article

did I. Is anything in the article factually plausible ?

And, I also caught the factual error re: checkpoint.

[kaur]

jmm99

About terrorists and insurgents in Southern Caucasus.

This program implemented President Bush's decision to respond to the Government of Georgia's request for assistance to enhance its counter-terrorism capabilities and addressed the situation in the Pankisi Gorge.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia..._Equip_Program

It had allegedly often been used as a base for transit, training and shipments of arms and financing by Chechen rebels and Islamic militants, many of whom followed Ruslan Gelayev.

Russia has attempted to attack the Chechen militants in the gorge. Georgia has also accused Russia of carrying out bombing raids in the gorge region in which at least one Georgian civilian was believed to have perished.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pankisi_Gorge

http://www.da.mod.uk/colleges/arag/d...s/caucasus/P37

Why young people are going to mountains and resisting goverment in North Caucasus is so long story. Political stalemates (with violent solutions), bad governance, blood feud, tribalism, deprivation etc are the causes of mess. Just take a look at this site.

http://www.jamestown.org/chechnya_weekly/

It just seems that free space for terrorists/insurgents has become bigger. In the North Caucasus there is same number of Russian troops but theatre has become 4000 sq km bigger.

This car bombing reminded me this Chechen act from 2002 in Grozny.

http://video.kavkazcenter.com/clips/grozny_buil.wmv

... and Znamenskoye.

http://video.kavkazcenter.com/battle...namenskoye.wmv

Goble writes about this boming here

http://windowoneurasia.blogspot.com/...osions-in.html

[jmm99]

and Chechens in the news today.

Hey K, your references to Pankisi Gorge were timely.

from CSM
Georgia's Chechens relive own Russian war
Russia's military presence in Georgia has unnerved refugees who fled here from Chechnya in the 1990s.
By Paul Rimple | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
from the October 7, 2008 edition
.....
Pankisi Gorge, Georgia - When Russian tanks rolled toward Tbilisi, Georgia, in August, shops closed and streets emptied as residents stayed indoors, glued to their televisions and radios. A hundred miles northeast, in the mountainous enclave of Pankisi Gorge, Chechen refugees also watched Russian troops advancing on TV, but with less stupefaction and more cynicism.
.....
Four to five thousand refugees spilled over the mountain border into Pankisi Gorge and found sanctuary with fellow Muslim Kisti, ethnic Chechens who had arrived in the Georgian region some 150 years earlier.

Most refugees were women and children, though many guerrillas also used the area as a haven from which to launch operations into Russia. By 2003, however, with the help of US military training, Georgia cleared the area of these paramilitary fighters. ....

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1007/p04s01-woeu.html

So, from the viewpoint of this report, the Pankisi Gorge problem was solved in 2003.

Goble's concluding comment (in the last url cited by you) is insightful (IMO):

Areshev’s words clearly reflect the view of many in the Russian security agencies who oppose a pullback. And their beliefs, especially if carefully and cleverly articulated by Russian officials, almost certainly would find understanding among many in the West who are increasingly willing to accept Moscow’s version of the Russian-Georgian war in which Tbilisi is to blame even though it did not invade another country and Moscow is innocent even though it did.

In short, there is a lot of political spin going on - and not that much factual analysis - nothing new about that.

[Stan]

did I. Is anything in the article factually plausible ?

And, I also caught the factual error re: checkpoint.

I'm not going to take the whole article apart, but will comment on a few paras that based on anecdotal evidence are, pathetically off, way off base.

they stopped a car with Georgian license plates in which the occupants were armed. The car was taken to a Russian checkpoint, where it promptly exploded. Nine Russian soldiers, including a Russian general in the nearby headquarters, were killed, and seven others were wounded.

The HQ was in the capital, not anywhere remotely near the buffer zone, or any check point. My previous point about Engineers performing EOD - Two very different skill fields (other than perhaps the ability to use explosives, which is also in question).

A car bomb in the Caucasus?

This is a weapon, and a method of terrorism, with a very familiar signature. It points to the introduction of a rather sinister aspect to the Russia-Georgia conflict – the entrance of radical Islamic elements on the field of battle, and clearly on the side of the Georgians.

Not sure I follow the author here. We have better criminals that barely use 250 grams of HE and do far more damage. The sad fact herein is: Russian soldiers had been stealing vehicles and property, taking said directly to the General for (ahem) inspection (and redistribution of possessed assets), and they established a pattern that even a 1st grader could follow.

Yet, far from being all-controlling, the Russkies are hardly in the drivers' seat on the far fringes of their supposedly resurgent empire...

This part I agree with. They got caught with their pants down thinking the Georgians gave up. Maybe they should consider the fact that nearly 30 percent of their targets were not hit, and, less than half of what was dropped failed to go high order. WWII munitions on a modern battlefield - maybe they were getting rid of their stockpiles

How many millions are we sending to Tbilisi? We're training their coast guard on American ships anchored in the Black Sea. Are we also training their intelligence service in the fine art of car bombing – or do they farm that out to the real experts?

I think the total is now collectively 25 billion

Pure conjecture or, Bravo Sierra.

Sorry, can't do much more with the Obama and McCain syndromes (don't even want to).

Regards, Stan

[jmm99]

It was interesting reading the article just discussed, and others in the popular press and spin sites, after reading through (and being a bit involved in) the threads here on Georgia.

Let us say that I was able to be much more fact-critical than I would have been without the knowledge gained from SWC. That applies to many other areas as well.

and, as to this:

Sorry, can't do much more with the Obama and McCain syndromes (don't even want to).

agreed, agreed & agreed - oh well, less than a month left. Deo Gratias.

[Stan]

A quick email sitrep from an (ahem) observer in the buffer zone:

Overall, life in Georgia is slowly returning to normalcy with locals going about their daily routines. Interesting to note are those locals that typically cross the buffer zones and Russian checkpoints without giving it another thought. It appears that it will only be a matter of time before everything is back to normal. There are even signs of the previous infrastructure returning to normal at schools, stores and government institutions.

NGO HALO Trust is spooling up for their first month working on the UXO problems. Their initial task will be to control areas and declare those either free of UXO, or in need of additional clearance operations. HALO thinks 6 to 9 months.

Departing Russians

05 OCT planned departures actually began on the morning of the 8th !
The initial plan called for Russian units to depart in unison beginning at 0800. However, some fruity MG Kulakhmetovi ordered that each checkpoint would depart only when at least 3 EUMM members were present. If that wasn’t already confusing for the Russian troops, the good general decided that each checkpoint could depart as individuals. This only led to a further delay with some of the checkpoints deserted and “Engineering” equipment left behind. (Trust me when I say their equipment is stone age Bravo Sierra).

The Georgian locals are convinced this was intentional with Russians returning throughout the night to recover their equipment. On a side note, don’t the Russians give their peacekeepers port-a-poties when deployed? I mean seriously, they like took dumps everywhere. The Russian troops are still hanging around Akhalgori as if it was strategic (it is after all real friggin close to Tbilisi).

Say, does that Colonel you worked with in Africa still do Ace hardware? Holy Moses, he could make a killing here.

[kaur]

Finland Sees a Familiar Pattern in Photos From the Georgia Conflict

MOSCOW — One of the stranger questions to emerge after the August conflict between Russia and Georgia: Did Russians go to war in camouflage filched from Finland?

Today, the two countries share a quiet 800-mile border. Asked whether Finnish authorities were concerned about distinguishing their troops from Russians on the battlefield, Captain Karhuvaara noted that the uniforms under scrutiny belong to troops in the Russian Ministry of the Interior, which oversees police forces inside Russia. “If Russian Ministry of the Interior troops would invade Finland,” he said, “we would have big trouble.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/wo...se&oref=slogin