With a nod to Deborah Osborne at Analyst's Corner, an interesting pub from the Criminal Intelligence Service Canada:

Strategic Early Warning for Criminal Intelligence
In an effort to provide the law enforcement community with advanced warning of emerging and future threats, CISC Central Bureau embarked on a project in 2004 to develop a Strategic Early Warning System for organized and serious crime (SEWS). Built upon well-established concepts and principles from such sectors as national defence and public health, and adapting methodological practices from the social sciences, the SEWS project seeks to provide guidance and insight through highly focused criminal forecasts.

Structurally divided into three main parts, this paper provides an overview of the theoretical framework upon which this project was developed, followed by a thorough explanation of the methodological process by which warning is produced and communicated through the Sentinel product line. The first part looks at principles and practices of indications and warning (I&W) analysis, outlining its central premise, articulating its key concepts and distinguishing it from other forms of intelligence analysis. The second part is dedicated to explaining the SEWS methodology. Beginning with a brief overview of the entire process, this section then discusses in detail the process for developing the Sentinel Watch List and the Sentinel Assessment, followed by a discussion on the key principles and methods of communicating warning to the client. The third and final part highlights some of the challenges and limitation of a strategic early warning system for organized and serious crime.