The Georgia War and the Century of “Real Power”

[Ron Humphrey]

Because the stakes are so high. Ultima ratio regnum.



It has nothing to do, ultimately, with Russia suffering so much as Russia potentially losing income they view as righfully theirs. I think the, or at least a, major reason behind the current shenanigans is the desire to control as much as possible of the energy supply to Western Europe. That has tangible benefits - crazy amounts of $$$ that might go in someone else's pockets otherwise. Russian leaders feel correctly they are in a position to do something about it, and so they have. This about the Russian elite, the Russian rulers, the common people be damned. Don't underestimate the role of national pride though - the wounded pride of the common Russian is strong enough to provide popular sanction for the activities of the ruler..

While this is understandable, it does seem rather short sighted in the context of whats in it for me VS whats in it for my children.

Lets say that Russia effectively gains control of said resources in such a manner as to create a monopoly on supply and in turn gains what it would deem as respect(through fear) and/or political capital. With the technological advances that have taken place in just even the recent years, exactly how long would it seem that those who find themselves under this particular heel would stay there. Resources are an issue for anyone anywhere and as such of concern, therefore most seek access to it whereever it can be found the most abundantly for the lowest cost.

Even in the worst case were they to try and stop others from seeking other avenues for said resources it's not gonna be much fun having to watch over ones shoulder day and night for fear that someone somewhere might figure out how to get around the restrictions and thus lessen their vulnerabilities to the pressure. The key to open trade being a better way to do business is actually not so weak as it might seem simply due to the fact that it tends to bring or at least encourage more forms of revenue for a much longer time without the pain of ensuring one keeps a tight hold on their (golden egg).

Not only is money at stake, but controlling so much of the energy supply to Western Europe also means a lot of political influence can be exercised when needed over a lot of very rich countries. That never goes out of style.

Goes with what I already said but to add, it seems quite certain that with such a level of political control comes a whole slew of political responsibilities they probably really don't want to have to address, and not doing so would bring more trouble for them then even the supply/demand issue.

Just doesn't seem quite as well thought out strategically as one might expect from a "great power"