Intelligence: failures, gaps and knowledge gaps

[davidbfpo]

Better intelligence features here often, so a hat tip to the Australian Lowy Institute for this succinct review which interestingly uses for context the recent insurgent attack on Pathankot Indian Air Force base:https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-in...sons-pathankot

One obvious response is better surveillance and collection...As Pathankot shows, there is a bigger intelligence lesson to be learned.
A more effective intelligence response would enable decision-makers to transcend the tactical responses to attacks. It would enable India and like-minded victims of terrorism to shape the environment; targeting the political-military system that generates threats, and reducing the destabilising political effects of attacks, rather than constantly reacting to events. Shaping the environment through policy requires a deeper understanding of the origins and effects of security threats. It needs insight into the motivations and vulnerabilities of the adversary, and how various actions against it could alter the environment for better or worse.
This requires not only closing intelligence gaps, but also addressing knowledge gaps....gaps offer a way to more strategically organise and prioritise intelligence efforts — including collection against intelligence gaps — in a way that better serves policy. Thus knowledge gaps require reorganising and reprioritising intelligence systems, but they are also pointless in the absence of clear policy goals and requirements.

A longer version is 'Defense Intelligence Analysis in the Age of Big Data', which appeared in JFQ 4th Quarter 2015:http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/D...n-Tarapore.pdf