Blogs to Watch

[SWJED]

Another very interesting post (as always) from John Robb at Global Guerrillas - Stochastic Tinkerers and Warfare.

I really respect the work of the financier, Nassim Taleb. His ideas on tinkering networks (the same type of networks that brought us the airplane, the personal computer, and much of the software we use today) provides us useful lessons on the utility of open source warfare (for those new to this, here's an article from the New York Times to get your started).

Here's how. Warfare in our current complex environment (as opposed to the last century and earlier) is very similar to the areas of science/finance where stochastic processes dominate. Since stochastic dominance implies a high level of randomness in outcomes, tinkering networks (ie. open source insurgencies) tend to generate substantially higher returns on effort than highly planned activities (ie. nation-building). The reason is that if you can't plan outcomes due to randomness, the optimal approach to success is through parallel development efforts using a wide variety of methods in combination with a network that readily embraces unexpected but very useful innovations. In contrast, highly planned efforts tend to limit the number of methods/paths used and are resistant to errant results due to bureaucratic inertia/bias.

Finally, these tinkering networks can occasionally produce black swans, or radical breakthroughs. In the context of warfare this is either an event or improvement in method that changes the course of the war. Question: are we, or can you ever imagine us being, in the business of producing black swans in warfare?

[carl]

In "The U.S. Army and the Counterinsurgency in the Philippine War" one of Linn's explanations for American success was that each Army unit was able to tailor its efforts to the unique circumstances in which it found itself. Because of difficulties in commucations and transport, the garrisons couldn't be closely supervised by a higher headquarters so they were free to "tinker" their way into doing whatever worked best in their area or on their island.

He was also skeptical that this could happen now because it is too easy for the bosses to keep close tabs on events and to visit.

[Smitten Eagle]

This reminds me of something that Galula mentioned his his Counterinsurgency Warfare. Paraphrasing pages 104-106 of his most recent book, he says the Chinese government would enact programs by first sectoring off areas and implimenting different variations of the program, and then experimentally evaluating the results. Later, the more successful variations would be implimented on a wider and larger scale.

There's nothing new under the sun.