Hmmm, other than a spare mag of ammo, an exfil generally does not include dog tags and passport.Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Explain this “old Eastern European Concept” as if it was still in play. I think today’s Russians are not the generation you speak of.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
More abductions, torture seen in separatist-held eastern Ukraine is an article based on multiple sources which shouldn't surprise nobody which informed himself from time to time.
Human right abuses get committed in practially every conflict and in this case it is pretty selfevident why payed thugs organized in an ad-hoc fashion with criminal interests intertwined with a political campaign mostly based on terrorism and hatred are responsible for most crimes and the most vicious at that.While definitive statistics on abductions are hard to come by, the Ukrainian Interior Ministry has reported some 500 cases since the onslaught of the conflict in April. The Amnesty report says that the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission for Ukraine recorded 222 abduction cases in that time.
Human rights observers say the kidnappings by the rebels are meant to intimidate the local population. But hostages are also being kept and used as human shields, locked away in rooms of rebel-occupied buildings to keep Ukrainian forces from striking them by air and bombarding them with heavy artillery, observers say. Others are held for ransom.
On June 24, the UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan Simonovic warned that the situation in eastern Ukraine is “rapidly deteriorating.” Three weeks on, Amnesty International says the situation is only worsening.
"The bulk of the abductions are being perpetrated by armed separatists, with the victims often subjected to stomach-turning beatings and torture," Amnesty's Deputy Europe and Central Asia Director Denis Krivosheev said, adding that there is also "evidence of a smaller number of abuses by pro-Kyiv forces."
Helluva job Putin, at making Russia an increasingly despised enemy in Ukraine instead of a 'slavic brother' and pushing your neighbours into the arms of the EU and US. The most cynical CIA plot could not have done a better job at that, congratulations.
Last edited by Firn; 07-11-2014 at 07:42 PM.
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
[QUOTE=Firn;158462]During the "Gas wars" Russian public opinion was on the Ukrainian side - now it is not, so yes, Putin did a good job at consolidating support for all his actions. Besides, Ukraine drifts Westward for all 20 years of independence, bloody mess in the East just make this move faster.Helluva job Putin, at making Russia an increasingly despised enemy in Ukraine instead of a 'slavic brother' and pushing your neighbours into the arms of the EU and US. The most cynical CIA plot could not have done a better job at that, congratulations.
Last edited by mirhond; 07-12-2014 at 10:17 AM.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
The NG problem, i.e. the theft of NG by Ukraine or better Ukranian and Russian oligarchs is solved around 2018, when enough additional pipeline capacity, that does not touch Ukraine and Poland, is available for Russia.
Therefore, the support of the Russians in respect to the gas war is not relevant argument, has no substance.
The shift of power from Ukraine to Russia would have happened anyway around 2018. The Ukrainian business model was expected to die.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._putin_donetskAll Is Not Well in Novorossiya
From Moscow to Donetsk, Russia's resurgent revanchists are turning against each other. Are Ukraine's pro-Russian firebrands too hot for Russia?
Ukraine Determined to Avoid the “Frozen-Conflict” Paradigm
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...b#.U8ECLmIaySM
Russia’s Actions in Ukraine: Parallels with Other “Hot Spots” of the Former Soviet Union
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...b#.U8ECeGIaySM
Firstly, It's still 2014, as far as I know, secondly, neglecting popular support is not a relevant course of action for polititian like Putin.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
Unbelivable how Russian tank factory's blogger explains sitation to his readers. Workers of this factory went once to Moscow to protect Putin from orange revolution. Brigadier of one of the depatments became representative of huge Ural admisistrative region. There is no doubt, that somebody is covering his ass.
Sorry for Google translate, hope you'll get the point
http://gurkhan.blogspot.be/2014/07/blog-post_12.htmlMoreover, please look at the situation with unrecognized East Ukrainian republics (the actual area) with the other hand. Let's compare what is happening in Ukraine, with what happened in Russia in 1994-2000,. I'm talking about Chechnya!
93god 1991 - Russia's political crisis, the Emergency Committee, Parliament shot - why not Maidan? Only more global scale. The analogy is appropriate in any case.
####October 27, 1991 Dudayev was elected (!) President of the Chechen Republic. Parliamentary elections were held simultaneously Chechen Republic. His first decree of November 1, 1991 Dudayev declared independence Chechen Republic of Ichkeria from the RSFSR, which was not recognized by any Russian authorities, nor any foreign countries. Is not it - the situation with both 1x1 Novorussia? The Congress of People's Deputies formally pleaded not this election, as they have been in violation of applicable laws. Again 1x1 as now in Ukraine. Kiev legally (!) Elected government does not recognize the referendum Donbass, and probably rightly so. Some have questioned the legitimacy of elections Poroshenko under the pretext that the south-east in the election did not participate. And Chechnya took part in the election of Yeltsin in 1996 and Putin's 2000th? No! All exactly the same as it is now in the Ukraine! But somehow we, Russians, and patriots in particular, almost unanimously supported Putin in his call "Drown in the toilet" Chechen separatist terrorists and Poroshenko exactly the same as we call a fascist and compare with Hitler. With a frightened, exactly? Poroshenko - legally elected president of an independent state, and he is obliged to take all necessary measures to preserve the integrity of their country. Let us remember how Putin "Pinocchio" Komsomolsk burned. Why him for it no one calls a war criminal and no one threatens him with a new Nuremberg unlike Poroshenko? Or what's the difference between Raduev and light, well, if, of course, abandon our Great Russian nationalist prejudices? In practice it turns out that no! Do not try anyone of anything and nothing to convince approve. Just ask think to include brains, and remove the ears propaganda noodles, which we now actively hang on both conflicting parties.
Plan B seems to be frozen conflict scenario. Russia feels very comfortable in those sitations.
Last edited by kaur; 07-12-2014 at 12:01 PM.
You are correct... Ulenspiegel is obvoiusly not on the top of his game today.
Stan---what is and has not died is the eastern European is the belief that one must have a passport in order to cross borders or if need be prove that one is a Russian citizen thus it is not so strange that Russian irregular fighters carry passports---if in fact he was Russian SF which I do not believe he was---he definitely would have gone in clean but then the Ukrainian SBU has picked up GRU types carrying Russian passports.
So they are simply in the hectic of trying to get more irregular fighters into the Ukraine just sloppy.
A really deeply telling article if correct as it is the first Russian admission that Russia is supplying new advanced weapons in large numbers into the Donestk region sine 3 Jul.
The question is why? Or is Putin all in now for an open UW fight?
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article..._putin_donetsk
@JMA
Ukraine starting drifting away was IMHO the loss for Russia. It indicates that Russia was unable to rule in her backyard by means of more or less soft power. This basic problem is not solved! Quite contrary.
An occupation of a region that was Russian and only was attached to Ukraine in 1954 due to administrative reasons, is therefore not that impressive, they have now less and pay more.
Re perceived weakness of US and Germany: To see that further Russian occupations are stalled or delayed by "weak" western response is interesting and may only indicate that your understanding of weakness in fawlty: Is it really weak when economic warm-up exercises of the blue team lead to problems for the red team? Here Putin may have already come to different conclusions than you. :-)
Obviously, we have simply different understanding of good strategy. Russian military operations, while elegant to a certain extend, do not solve the basic problems Russia has, but actually increase them, that is in my book not a win and I can live with such "lessons taught".
Personally I am quite happy with a low profile strategy that gives both sides enough time to assess the situation and adjust their future actions, like the rounds in a game of poker, each player has the opportunity to quit with an acceptable loss of face. That is much better than stupid knee-jerk operations which are only PR stunts and may lead to unintended consequences.
Last edited by Ulenspiegel; 07-13-2014 at 09:48 AM.
Understandable move to grab Crimea now when the US is weak and Germany won't do anything rather than wait. Now was the time. Putin got it right.
Yes, Ukraine for historical reasons is not a natural ally of Russia. Putin I suppose recognised this and took care of the Crimea issue.It indicates that Russia was unable to rule in her backyard by means of more or less soft power. This basic problem is not solved! Quite contrary.
Yes, if I were looking for an excuse for my country's gutlessness I would make that argument as well.An occupation of a region that was Russian and only was attached to Ukraine in 1954 due to administrative reasons, is therefore not that impressive, they have now less and pay more.
"Weak"? Well maybe in the case of Germany it was a case of not being prepared to pay the cost of punishing Russia.Re perceived weakness of US and Germany: To see that further Russian occupations are stalled or delayed by "weak" western response is interesting and may only indicate that your understanding of weakness in fawlty: Is it really weak when economic warm-up exercises of the blue team lead to problems for the red team? Here Putin may have already come to different conclusions than you. :-)
So we turn to Churchill to understand the German position:
But then again I can't read Putin's mind as you seem to believe you can. So tell me what he is thinking now and what made him change.An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last. -
Winston Churchill
There are different levels of strategy, some provide short term results but long term catastrophic failure - like germany in WW1 and WW2 - and other result in long term gains not initially obvious. Take your pick.Obviously, we have simply different understanding of good strategy. Russian military operations, while elegant to a certain extend, do not solve the basic problems Russia has, but actually increase them, that is in my book not a win and I can live with such "lessons taught".
As a German I assume you have learned from the errors of your past... but don't lecture me, lecture Putin.Personally I am quite happy with a low profile strategy that gives both sides enough time to assess the situation and adjust their future actions, like the rounds in a game of poker, each player has the opportunity to quit with an acceptable loss of face. That is much better than stupid knee-jerk operations which are only PR stunts and may lead to unintended consequences.
Last edited by JMA; 07-13-2014 at 12:26 PM.
Ulenspiegel, as far as I understand for Russian elite this is not problem paying more. They just have to increase their income to pay more to afford geopolitical Faberge eggs.
Last time EU tried to solve military conflict 2008. French president Sarkozy signed with Russians peace plan. To remember the details
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...1#.U8Juq2IaySM
In less than two months later French foreign minister signalled to Russia to continue business as usual.
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_...1#.U8JvyGIaySM
From this Jamestown article we can jump directly to that fresh column.
http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=56021
After Carnegie story you should read this one.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/pirel...ard-1405072159
It is very suitable to end this post with quotin Lenin "'The capitalists will sell us the rope with which to hang them".
Ps I hope that somebody put words to Lenin mouth and reality is different.
http://www.nytimes.com/1987/04/12/ma...-language.htmlHere is what Mr. Annenkov claims he copied from notes in Lenin's handwriting, italics in the original: ''To speak the truth is a petit-bourgeois habit. To lie, on the contrary, is often justified by the lie's aim. The whole world's capitalists and their governments, as they pant to win the Soviet market, will close their eyes to the above-mentioned reality and will thus transform themselves into men who are deaf, dumb and blind. They will give us credits . . . they will toil to prepare their own suicide.''
Already happened with Germany, France, UK etc... only a matter of time with the US.
Ulenspiegel---a simple basic question that I do not see often answered concerning the Crimea and the current Russian view towards the Crimea.
Correct me if I am wrong but who in fact "gave" the Crimea "away" and was it not done under a "communist" leader in a "communist legal fashion" in the beginning of say 1954 which if I recall the Soviet Union was still wading through "Stalinism" was it not?
So are we saying that a "communist" country led by not so softie "Communist Party fine tuned in the Stalin days " using "communist" legal terms somehow got it "wrong"?
So now it is up to the Ukraine and the West to do what "take a time out and stand in the corner" and allow another former "communist ie KGB COL" a chance for a "redo" of history say "60" years later?
Does that makes sense to you?
I have not noticed a single German political leader nor a single German newspaper actually challenge the above statement---meaning-- are we the West to give Russia a chance to redo history all because someone in the former Soviet Union who was a "valid leader" "made a stupid 1954 mistake" in the "eyes" of the current 2014 Russian leader?
Is that not what the current Putin argument really is all about if one really reads his statements---a chance to correct in his eyes "a stupid Communist mistake from 1954". So are you in fact stating that the "stupid West who said nothing in 1954" should in fact stand to the side and allow another "stupid mistake in 2014 to be made again"?
Heck using that argument Germany could stand up in 2014 and say "excuse me because that stupid Hitler made a mistake in 1939 we want the western portion of Poland back and the western portion of the Czech Republic back because we did not have a chance to correct that stupid Hitler
back in 1939"---so now we Germany also want our own "redo" of history because we Germany did not have a chance to call Hitler stupid back then and stop him.
You do realize that is exactly what Putin is saying about the Crimea and you do realize the West is allowing a complete "redo" of history just because a single person feels his nose is disjointed by a former Communist leader who he never knew because he was not born in those times although he himself was a Communist so one might think he would have empathy for that historical time period of the Soviet Communist Party?
But again I have never heard and or seen written anywhere that Putin ever revoked his Communist Party membership and the Party still survives so maybe he is a "hidden member still"---or has anyone writing here seen such a revocation notice?
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-13-2014 at 04:01 PM.
Coming from a rather large shopping Russian tour, driving into Ukrainian land...(Added YouTube clip has been removed by owner)
Wasn't there something of a EU/USA red line about Russian tanks invading Urkaine? It is all well that Putin continues to shoot into Russias goal but a bit of consistency and harsher sanctions might have prevented much current and future bloodshed. Not only in Ukraine, but also when another power might want to tests certain lines.
P.S: In other videos you see VW T5 with long wheel base riding along, good taste I have to add. Would be convenient means of transport for specialists or VIPs from various 'internal' Russian services.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 07-13-2014 at 07:35 PM. Reason: Add update re clip
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
Watch the words from Putin yesterday coming out of Brazil---he is just a tad short of marching in within the next 3-4 days as his rhetoric is climbing in a way not seen before.
IMO he has now begun to believe there will be no further sanctions thus he can now move into the eastern Ukraine under the guise of "peacekeeping".
Some questions for you:
Do you really think that we should do more than some economic sanctions in case of the Krim?
Or do you think that the Krim is worth for the west to play a military game?
Do you think the west holds after 2003 the moral high ground?
What was our and the Ukrainian position when Yugoslavia went south?
Unfortunately, the world is a spectrum of grey, my feeling is, you want to sell a clear black and white scenario that does not exists.
Last edited by Ulenspiegel; 07-16-2014 at 02:00 PM.
Here is our difference---at what point does a country or a set of countries respond and how does that response get the attention of in this case an aggressor that upset the basis of the European development as a whole since 1945.
Or did I miss that point?
Secondly, the Russian economy is actually far weaker than most think--and here is the core point most Communists including inside the GDR started to believe their own economic rhetoric in the 70s thus the numbers being reported up the chain by the LPGs and Kombinats etc. were fake and they were added to at every level until it hit the leaders hip and in the end the leadership believed the numbers while those at the bottom knew they were fake.
That is now ongoing in Russian---Putin believed his numbers as did his radical ultra nationalist advisors and it now appears the economic truth has set in---but Putin went way to far out on a limb to safely climb down.
The sanctions should be implemented harder and faster---yes it would hurt the EU but the only way to get his attention is to prove you will accept pain for one's believes the West has not shown that thus he believes he can continue as he wants.
This is not about morals ---this is hard core annexation politics nothing more nothing less and if one is trying to work the morals angle then all is lost---one cannot weigh the Iraq against say Kosovo and Kosovo against the break up of Yugoslavia which actually a large number of people accurately predicted would often---I even got a 1 on a paper on that exact topic in 1977 and actually predicted how each zone would devolve into violence---it was there for all to see many choose not to see.
The Yugoslavian breakup was driven by something new the West had not seen thus the long delay trying to figure it out---the Christian Muslim divide.
And did the West get it wrong just as Putin is struggling with a whole list of Islamic issues vs say the statements coming from the Russian Orthodox Church.
Well what sanctions have been applied and what deterrent effect have they had?
I suggest the response from the West has been pathetic other than from Sweden (Carl Bildt) in a speech at the Atlantic Council:
With the US sadly we are seeing the last kicks of a dying horse - and how pathetic these kicks are too. As for Germany and the other (cowardly) nations of the EU they are now applying a policy of appeasement towards Russia.I can think of only one previous case in modern history when a regime suddenly militarily grabs and annexes another country or piece of territory of another country, claiming some sort of more or less relevant historical justification, and that was Saddam Hussein's invasion, occupation and annexation of Kuwait in 1991. The international reaction then was swift, strong and effective, and I believe this was very important in preventing anyone else, wherever that could have been, from harboring thoughts about making similar dangerous adventures.
So it is the principle of the matter that counts and not the spin being applied in a pathetic attempt to make cowardly appeasement appear to be an intelligent and logical approach to the annexation of Crimea.
Russia has correctly noted that there is no military ability - jointly - to counter any territorial moves may attempt in the absence of the US.
Bildt again:
If I disagree with Bildt it is only in the choice of the word 'sleepwalkers', I would have used the word 'cowards', (but then again he is a diplomat). I believe the risk is seen and noted and the specific and deliberate choice has been made to appease the Russians, no sleepwalking involved.In much the same way, I believe it is very important that we stand very firm on what the Russian invasion, occupation and annexation of Crimea really meant and that we are clear on never accepting either its legality or its different consequences. If we should waiver on this, I see a clear risk that further Crimeas could happen further down the road, perhaps not tomorrow, and perhaps not the day after tomorrow, perhaps, but perhaps the day after the day after tomorrow, perhaps not there, perhaps not here, but perhaps somewhere else, and the consequences would be really bad. If we don't see that risk, yes, then history might well see also us as sleepwalkers into catastrophe in the future.
Finally the only people with a military option is the US and clearly the current administration is running scared of any confrontation with Russia and just about anyone else. Putin knows this. Britain has steadily reduced its military to the point that it is incapable of any substantial military effort. Putin knows this. The rest of the EU in military terms is pathetic, this includes Germany. Putin knows this. Even the application economic sanctions seems to be too much for Germany to contemplate. Putin is the one laughing.
Last edited by JMA; 07-17-2014 at 12:57 PM.
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