Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[carl]

ps. About sanctions. You, Westerners, somehow missed the major point - any sanctions, especially freezing or seizing the financial assets of the ruling classes just give Putin a bit more popular support, because wide-spread attitude here, in Russia, is: "What is bad for crooked cleptocrats, oligarchy and elites - is good for nation", and for Putin of cause, he is still a kinda beloved leader.

That brings up the question of who constitutes Vlad's real constituency, the ones he actually cares most about, the Russians or the oligarchs? Judging by the state of Russian public health, I'm figuring it isn't the people.

That video may have been surreal, but people die in surreal circumstance too.

[Firn]

Just a quick look at the a center of gravity, the financial markets as AdamG put it.

The Bank Rossii supported the ruble with another $ 300m yesterday. Not much compared to Monday, but more the in an usual couple of weeks togheter.

The ruble was affected by "the well-known political factor," Ms. Nabiullina said at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin and members of the government.

To prevent the ruble from declining further, the central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates on Monday and sold $ 11.3 billion on the open market from its currency reserves. This contrasted with daily interventions by the central bank of a few hundred million dollars in previous weeks. On Tuesday the central bank spent $300 million to prop up the ruble, Ms. Nabiullina said.

She said that a prolonged strengthening of the ruble is possible only if Russia's economic fundamentals improve.

The Bank Rossii has still around $ 150B quite readily available but it certainly wants to play it save.

@mirhond: A crashing stock market in Russia, mostly due to a natural market reaction to military conflict, is actually a pretty targeted outcome against the Russian elite and upper class . I doubt that more then 15% of the Russians hold directly shares. The talk of economic sanction has certainly done it's part too. If the occupation flares up again, the Russian shares will obviously bear the brunt.

[AdamG]

Just a quick look at the a center of gravity, the financial markets as AdamG put it.

See also:
Ukraine: Goodbye Cold War, hello globalised economy

The days of the 'iron curtain' are behind us; the West can't intervene in Ukraine due to global economic dynamics.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...30187257018569

See also: http://usacac.army.mil/cac2/call/docs/09-27/toc.asp

Suggested reading music: http://youtu.be/oVNc8H4uTYs

[AmericanPride]

Adam and Firn,

The real center of gravity is who controls Ukraine's wealth at the end of this drama. The new government in Kiev has already announced a privatization program:

"I'll tell you about the idea of privatization of the energy sector at transparent auctions: Chornomornaftogaz and other companies, which are part of Naftogaz Ukrainy," [the Prime Minister] said at a meeting with the business community in Kyiv on Monday.

[AdamG]

Adam and Firn,

The real center of gravity is who controls Ukraine's wealth at the end of this drama. The new government in Kiev has already announced a privatization program:

I've always understood Center of Gravity to be a What, not a Who.

Money is still at the root of the problem - had the (former) Ukrainian Kleptocracy not looted the country's coffers to the tune of $20 billion or so, they wouldn't be in this fine mess.

Meanwhile, Kremlin.

[slapout9]

I've always understood Center of Gravity to be a What, not a Who.

Money is still at the root of the problem - had the (former) Ukrainian Kleptocracy not looted the country's coffers to the tune of $20 billion or so, they wouldn't be in this fine mess.

Meanwhile, Kremlin.

That is I decided to return to my roots. What a COG is...is pretty worthless IMO as nobody ever agrees on what it is. IMO it is better to go with the idea of PEOPLE cause crimes and they cause wars, don't worry about the stuff involved, it is the folks that control it you need to worry about.

Which leads us to the money or rather who controls the money as the root problem. Kerry is the ultimate 1 per-center and an avowed globalist. Putin with his paltry few billions is nothing compared to the personal history of Kerry, plus Putin is from the peasant class compared to Kerry with his long pedigree to include his wife which is literally a Heinz 57, the ultimate Internationalist.

So this is Kerry and his Banker supported Real Estate Swindle vs. Putin and his KGB street fighters. Don't know WHO (not what) will win.

[AmericanPride]

That is I decided to return to my roots. What a COG is...is pretty worthless IMO as nobody ever agrees on what it is. IMO it is better to go with the idea of PEOPLE cause crimes and they cause wars, don't worry about the stuff involved, it is the folks that control it you need to worry about.

Which leads us to the money or rather who controls the money as the root problem. Kerry is the ultimate 1 per-center and an avowed globalist. Putin with his paltry few billions is nothing compared to the personal history of Kerry, plus Putin is from the peasant class compared to Kerry with his long pedigree to include his wife which is literally a Heinz 57, the ultimate Internationalist.

So this is Kerry and his Banker supported Real Estate Swindle vs. Putin and his KGB street fighters. Don't know WHO (not what) will win.

I don't agree with the terms but I agree with the sentiment. This is a battle of wills between the neoliberal Washington Concensus and the nationalist-realist faction currently in power in Moscow. The control of Ukraine represents $$$ for both sides, with the Ukrianian activists of all political stripes caught in the middle.

[mirhond]

That brings up the question of who constitutes Vlad's real constituency, the ones he actually cares most about, the Russians or the oligarchs? Judging by the state of Russian public health, I'm figuring it isn't the people.

That video may have been surreal, but people die in surreal circumstance too.

No one of those "brave airmen" were in danger, they have already learned that "polite people with guns" are not about to shoot at them. (one of those "polite guys" on the video is a defected civil security guard, hated "Berkut")

on Putin. You are right about his constituency, but look at this from other side - sanctions will give him a tool to break his chains and become truly independent. Old good alliance of the King and the People against the Aristocracy.

@mirhond: A crashing stock market in Russia, mostly due to a natural market reaction to military conflict, is actually a pretty targeted outcome against the Russian elite and upper class . I doubt that more then 15% of the Russians hold directly shares. The talk of economic sanction has certainly done it's part too. If the occupation flares up again, the Russian shares will obviously bear the brunt.

I think my answer to carl answers your note too. Besides, our stock-market is a fairy kingdom, completley misterious to majority of population. I'm not sure about numbers, but I'd rather divide your guess of 15% share-holders by 3. Moreover, financial wellfare of the political elites and upper classes is hardly secured in shares and securities, so they will not suffer a lot.

[Firn]

I think my answer to carl answers your note too. Besides, our stock-market is a fairy kingdom, completley misterious to majority of population. I'm not sure about numbers, but I'd rather divide your guess of 15% share-holders by 3. Moreover, financial wellfare of the political elites and upper classes is hardly secured in shares and securities, so they will not suffer a lot.

I did not look it up before and wanted to be on the conserative side. 5% sounds indeed more likely.

I actually wrote before that the Russian soldiers are doing generally a fine professional and disciplined job. They can of course increasingly outsources the nasty stuff to those paramilitary types but this doesn't change that they are so far conducting overall a pretty chilly and calm occupation.

Talking about paramilitary guys and pro-Russian crowds how did the following happen:



From ITV James Mates

UN special envoy Robert Serry with me in coffee shop. Outside local militia block the door. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/pbotNqCG3i

Very unpleasant incident over. Robert Serry said v happy to leave #crimea if it helped de escalate the situation.

1) Completely spontaneous?
2) A targeted pro-Russian show gone out of control?
3) Planned that way?

The most probable answer seems 2) with some local Crimean leaders not able to handle it properly. A mob with some gunmen won't help the Russian diplomacy. But of course it is impossible to say from the outside.

[AmericanPride]

I think the emphasis on the Russian stock market is out of place. First, as mirhond noted, there is not a significant amount of stakeholders and there is potentially political opportunity for Putin and his administration. Secondly, how do the losses measure in value and time with the gains desired by Moscow? Market losses are transient; losing Ukraine politically is potentially permanent. I suspect that Washington is significantly more sensitive to market movement than Moscow and this may be affecting perceptions on how Moscow is expected to respond to the stock market.

[slapout9]

Part of my New Year's eve resolution was to stop looking at these situations through the traditional war analysis viewpoints (Clausewitz,etc.) cause they just don't seem to work IMO. So I am going back to the more traditional Law Enforcement Investigative techniques, in which I case I will view these situation as Crimes in progress and proceed from there.


It is really interesting to view the family history of our Secretary of State. The Direct Family links to some of the most famous names of Wall Street and with his family ties to International business, which have with direct ties back to......Germany and England and numerous International organizations.

My first question would have to be is where exactly is this man's loyalty.

Google the names of John Kerry and his wife Teresa Heinz for yourself.


mirhond I like your posts very interesting stuff!!

[carl]

on Putin. You are right about his constituency, but look at this from other side - sanctions will give him a tool to break his chains and become truly independent. Old good alliance of the King and the People against the Aristocracy.

Nah, I don't think so. Mainly because the oligarchs have risen to the position they are in during his reign, so I don't see him changing his spots. Besides, he is an oligarch. How many billions is he worth?

"Break his chains"! An "alliance of the king (I didn't know Vlad was a king. Vlad the First) and the people against the aristocracy"! Mirhond you have an interesting way with words. Not so original though. That was the form back in Stalin's day. The inhuman cruelties and the brainless screw ups were always blamed on some functionary. 'Comrade Joe would never do that. If only Comrade Joe knew about this, things would change.' said those poor dumb bastards as they were tormented on Joe's orders. You are using the same form.

Slap is right. Your posts are valuable. We get the unadulterated party line delivered directly.

[AmericanPride]

I'm not going to gloat about the pie in the face over at RT but this comment from WaPo struck me as ironic:

The environment at RT also came in for some punishment: “There’s a form of self-censorship that you learn. Eventually you learn what management likes, what management dislikes. Today, especially with the heightened situation in Crimea, overtly questions are being written, very, very loaded questions. Questions basically to paint the picture and to present the Putin perspective in all of this,” Wahl told Cooper.

Replace "RT" with "[any mainstream US media]" and "Crimea" with "[any US conflict]" and you could describe American media also. Given the performance of the US media in the run up to the Iraq War, I find the gloating at WaPo very humorous. I'm not going to defend RT but let's not excuse the blatant sycophancy and selective coverage of our own media outlets either. But I have two points about this:

(1) As far as I know, no US reporter had the courage to resign on air or to forcefully buck the talking points live since, say, the start of the War on Terrorism. That's not because it's RT but I think it might have to do with the kind of people RT recruited in its pursuit to challenge the US media narrative.

(2) The battle of wills between the Washington and Moscow narratives has become painfully obvious and I think it sheds some light on the nature of information in an environment in which both parties have equal capabilities in broadcasting.

[mirhond]

Nah, I don't think so. Mainly because the oligarchs have risen to the position they are in during his reign, so I don't see him changing his spots. Besides, he is an oligarch. How many billions is he worth?

"Break his chains"! An "alliance of the king (I didn't know Vlad was a king. Vlad the First) and the people against the aristocracy"! Mirhond you have an interesting way with words. Not so original though. That was the form back in Stalin's day. The inhuman cruelties and the brainless screw ups were always blamed on some functionary. 'Comrade Joe would never do that. If only Comrade Joe knew about this, things would change.' said those poor dumb bastards as they were tormented on Joe's orders. You are using the same form.

Slap is right. Your posts are valuable. We get the unadulterated party line delivered directly.

Looking for enemies, don't you? &

on Putin again. I see you dislike a historical metaphor for unknown reason, let's reshape it: Putin is already gaining popular support by removing the most odious figures from power, god knows what bulldogs under carpet are involved. Why you so quickly dismiss the option he'd turn against his coterie? Currently he has 40 bln $ but not so much power, he may trade some of the billions for more power. I, personally, give 5% a priori probability on this outcome. So, carefully prepared and thoroughly inplemented Anschluss of Crimea, and Eastern Ukraine as bonus, also boosts his popularity.

ps. Uncle Joe is irrelevant to the subject, and appeal to emotions is unconstructive.

[Firn]

I was about to throw a quick glance at the financial markets, especially at what the Ruble is doing but there have been more important news in this conflict.

10:47:Speaking in Kiev, Ukraine's interim Economy Minister Pavlo Sheremeta says: "We're not working out what to do if Crimea joins the Russian Federation because we believe it's unconstitutional."
Breaking News

The Crimean parliament votes to hold a referendum on 16 March in which voters will be asked on whether the region should join the Russian Federation.

10:31:Russian President Vladimir Putin is informed about a decision by the Crimean parliament asking him to allow the region to become part of Russia, the Kremlin is reported by AFP to have said.


10:17:Pro-Russian authorities in Crimea have asked Vladimir Putin to consider a request for the region to join the Russian Federation, which will be put to a referendum on March 16, AFP reports.


10:11:"The parliament of Crimea has adopted a motion for Crimea to join Russia. It has asked the Russian president and parliament to consider this request," a member of the parliament's leadership, Grigoriy Ioffe, tells AFP.
10:09:

Crimea's parliament has unanimously voted in favour of becoming part of Russia, the RIA news agency quoted by Reuters says.
10:08:

The pro-Russian mayor of the Crimean port of Sevastopol says the city will not take part in the Ukrainian presidential election scheduled for 25 May, Interfax-Ukraine news agency reports. Alexei Chaly, elected to the newly created position of chairman of Sevatopol's executive committee by a rally on 23 February, is quoted as saying: "Sevastopol refuses to take part in the election by the illegitimate authorities." (BBC Monitoring).

So a couple of days after the illegal invasion of the Crimea by non-Russian Russian forces which put a autonomous puppet regime in place they duly produced what Putin wanted. It took at least some time to set it up, but it certainly works smoother the the last time when they asked for Putins non-Russian Russian help after the non-Russian Russian forces had already taken over.

Russian De-escalation at it's best.

Frau Merkel will be quite amused by the timing:

10:49 German Chancellor Angela Merkel says a "range of sanctions" will be considered at the EU talks. Germany is believed to want more moderate action than other EU states, and Mrs Merkel says whether sanctions "will need to be implemented" will depend on "how far the diplomatic process" moves forward.

I'm pretty sure that quite that most Eastern European members of the EU and NATO will feel the urge to say: 'Told you so'.

Shaun Walker ‏@shaunwalker7 11 Min.

Now playing "new Crimean national anthem", begins "The island of Crimea is fighting for freedom", continues about Kiev fascists, "#### US"

You hardly can makes such things. They have already spontaneously written a 'new Crimean national anthem'.

I wrote about an invasion out of an 'Soviet textbook' before, minus executions, now the occupation follows the Soviet model as well.

[mirhond]

So a couple of days after the illegal invasion of the Crimea by non-Russian Russian forces which put a autonomous puppet regime in place they duly produced what Putin wanted. It took at least some time to set it up, but it certainly works smoother the the last time when they asked for Putins non-Russian Russian help after the non-Russian Russian forces had already taken over.

Russian De-escalation at it's best.

So, Putin just spared two million people from civil war?

[Firn]

So, Putin just spared two million people from civil war?

There is a fair chance that his friendly occupation will cause exactly that in a Crimea which had it's problem but very little violence.

I already wrote about the manyfold economic dependance of the Crimea on Ukraine. It will be hard hit by the demand shock from tourists, internal turmoil and friction. As you pretty much can count on a puppet regime under Russian control to miss-manage the economy, see Transnistria etc I doubt that Russia will be able to do even a decent economic job. Apart perhaps from gifts to the selected ones which played their part in the political game.

Next it would be nice if you stopped using one-liners and at least try to make your case. I sincerly interested in it, as so far I have seen none.

Shaun Walker ‏@shaunwalker7 15 Min.

Crimea politician: This now Russian territory. Only legal troops here russian. any troops of a 3rd country will be treated as illegal bands.

.....

So the non-Russian Russian troops have not invaded the Crimea, the Crimea moved to them to become Russian. Stupid me.

P.S: Will the great Putin magnanimously accept the vote of the his puppets that the Crimea is from 'today' Russian or will the great leader wisely cool down his people and insist that they should would for the certain outcome of the the fair and open referendum under the Russian boot.