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  1. #1
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    I take the freedom to dump a text from my blog here, since it relates to the topic. The properly formatted version is here.

    Putin's approach to aggressions is an interesting one. It appears he
    has recognised the limitations of his freedom of action, found and began to
    exploit loopholes.

    An all-out conventional invasion, 1914-style, is apparently out of question to
    him. Russia lacks the forces to pull this off on a grand scale, at least without
    exposing itself too much.
    His exploits appear to range up to army corps size instead (South Ossetia
    2008) - with all other power being held in the back, as a political equivalent
    to a "fleet in being". This restricts the freedom of action of other great
    powers. Small powers can probably not pull off the same risky games for they
    lack this component - even if they could easily muster forces equivalent to
    the ones employed actively.

    Traditional Cold War deterrence rested on the fear that a too bold move
    might lead to World War III, and the demise of European civilisation. There
    were no aggressive moves done in Europe proper after the Berlin blockade;
    both blocs were content with keeping their own line*. Bold moves were
    largely restricted to Asia, with proxies and at times small numbers of
    opposing great power troops fighting against each other**.

    There as a fear that some bold, yet incremental, moves could be dared in
    Europe - and it was difficult to define when exactly such incremental
    offenses should lead to mobilisation or war. A British satire (a "Yes, Prime
    Minister!" episode, see 7:04 minutes and after) explained this better than
    articles or books ever did. Also remember the metaphor of boiling frogs.


    Putin appears to have thought of this incremental approach when he decided
    to send paramilitary troops without national insignias into the Crimea.


    He did apparently also take into account that the Ukraine is not allied with
    any country.


    Finally, the third ingredient; international law had been stretched somewhat
    prior to the move.


    Putin did stretch his freedom of action in face of International Law
    proponents prior to the conflict with Georgia in 2008 by exposing
    'peacekeeper' troops. Georgia proceeded to attack South Ossetia at some
    point and this included firing on peacekeepers. At that point Putin had a
    semi-plausible excuse for intervention. His intervention was not as blatant as
    the intervention of Kuwait 1990, for example. Him withdrawing after fait
    accompli avoided troubles as well.


    The stretching of International Law for the invasion(s) of the Ukraine wasn't
    done by Putin himself. This damage was done by Western great powers which
    had a fit of arrogance and short-sightedly decided that rule of force suits
    them better than rule of law. Rule of law was supposedly a concept to be
    applied on other powers only.

    Except that the "other powers" includes some great powers which evidently
    can behave arrogantly as well.

    2014-02 Hypocrisy in effect

    It would help if the same Western great powers reaffirmed the importance of
    international law in a non-hypocritical way. They could admit guilt, seek and
    accept a ruling about compensations and - most importantly - refrain from
    further violations.

    This won't happen, of course.Only losing aggressors have to show regret in
    this world.

    Another approach to close the loopholes would be to expand the collective
    defence systems; offer an alliance of some kind to the Ukraine. This is most
    unlikely as well. It would lead to further conflict and might end up being
    much too expensive. The Ukraine is not too big to fail, after all. Nothing in
    there is really crucial to the West (for historical reasons), while much in there
    is crucial to Russia.

    Finally, one could tune up the reaction to incremental moves and effectively
    turn incremental moves into too big moves thereby. This appears to be the
    preferred approach among Western great power governments.

  2. #2
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    Fuchs, without describing Putin's motives (and ideologue) carrying out his actions, your post is not so good. Do you agree with this column?

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/...3.html#ref=rss

    What paramilitary troops? There were conventional Russian troops in Crimea. Even Putin admitted this month later.

    Putin appears to have thought of this incremental approach when he decided to send paramilitary troops without national insignias into the Crimea.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    I take the freedom to dump a text from my blog here, since it relates to the topic. The properly formatted version is here.
    fuchs---would have rewritten the article focusing on the concept of Russia using a strategic UW strategy in the conducting of a political war against both the Ukraine and the West (the West as his Duma speech indicated is viewed as being a "liberal democracy" and "western capitalism" as pushed by the US/IMF). By the way both qualities found in the EU which is also a Putin concern.

    Then I would focus on the current five legs of a Russian stool that is in fact the current Russia political society/animal 1) the security services, 2) the military, 3) the oligarchs, 4) Russian mob/gangs and 5) the Russian Orthodox Church and the seat of the stool being in fact a new Russian ideology --"ethnic nationalism". Especially focusing on the interplay between each of the groups and Putin's foreign policies.

    This new ideology "ethnic nationalism" is being driven by the following spokesperson Alexandra Dugin who pushes what he calls the "New Euroasianism" and/or "Nationalbolshevism" that is tied into the Russian nationalist groups who are in turn tied into European wide Nationalist groups who in turn have extensive media outlets supporting them ie what one sees currently in use in Russia airing proUkrainian videos and radio interviews.

    This new ideology if one reads the Duma speech--- Putin inherently wants to lead globally.

    Putin's' use of a strategic UW strategy is in fact being carried out by all five elements just mentioned.

    This strategy is just not a rehash of version 2 of the Cold War but something new and needs to be fully understood by all players in the West as they is currently not a single counter UW strategy seen anywhere out there.

    It is a strategy that can be turned on and off at his will anywhere on the borders to Russia proper as well as the ME ie Syria and he can sustain it virtually forever unless a counter UW strategy is found in a hurry and we fully understand in the West the term "political warfare".
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-03-2014 at 10:50 AM.

  4. #4
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    I was aiming at the core, not trying to write a comprehensive analysis of Europe's security situation or of Russia. And I don't think the reference to a poorly defined concept ("UW") helps in pointing out the novelty in there.
    I was NOT satisfied with merely calling it "UW"; I wanted to show what I think is the core of the matter.

    And that is core of the matter is that he has identified and is exploiting gaps in the European security architecture.

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    WaPo's version of the OOB - interesting about the UA 25th Airborne Brigade.
    http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/pag...ne-border/996/
    Last edited by AdamG; 05-03-2014 at 02:40 PM.
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    You can write "UW" as often as you want, but buzzwords bring nothing to the table.

    I am a European and there's at least one huge gap in the European security architecture which was meant to not allow war to slip into Europe.
    This is a big deal to us.


    Look at it from the long-term angle; the Ukraine crisis isn't only about itself, but it's like a computer which got disabled by malware. We ought to scramble to fix the vulnerability to protect other computers.
    To save the disabled computer should be secondary to the community.


    And sorry, but I don't see anything interesting in what you call Putin's "political warfare". I've seen too much of it in history books. It's normal.

    The problem in the Ukraine is that he's staying below a certain threshold, and he does so because the threshold is high for a great power. This is essentially what GWB did to Iraq as well (getting away with an aggression without overt hostile intervention), except that his threshold was much higher due to the alliance situation, so his gang was much more brazen.


    We need to lower the thresholds and make sure potential aggressors understand about the lowered level, so they don't mess up by misunderstanding them.
    See fuchs---here is the difference between you the European and myself the American having lived say in Germany since say 1967 and understanding the European better than themselves.

    What Europeans got in 1989 was the ability to disarm their militaries and to drive down their defense budgets to a level that was "comfortable" meaning militaries were now "cheap" compared to say 1985. Yes some participated in AFG, but again it was not a great investment and in the mean time they continued the disarmament---take Germany and the cutting of their armored brigades last year.

    Then the European companies went on a spending and investing binge in Russia as it "appeared" to be the great next business market and they did in fact make great money in their investments and still do today so hey who wants to rock the boat and besides Europeans thought that if one invests a lot in another country then that country would not want to cause a war which seems to have not been true now.

    So what is the European answer currently towards Putin---what is the lower threshold you are going to set---what not continue buying his gas.

    Putin would really respect Europeans if in fact they placed sanctions on Russia that in fact hurt European businesses as well as that would show him Europeans are willing to sacrifice their money for an ideal---that ain't about to happen believe me,

    What you think is a buzz word is exactly what is allowing Putin to stay under a specific level and do not think for a moment that what is being practiced by the "separatists" ie proRussian armed groups is nothing more or less that outright UW at the tactical level.

    UW as a strategy gives a country the ability in political warfare to scale up and scale down their responses depending on what the Ukrainians do as well as what the Europeans do.

    By the way the term political warfare fell out of use over 30 or so years ago and has not been discussed much since then.

    But hey continue believing that buzz words do not count and continue believing that what you are seeing is not UW which seems to be the European way.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-03-2014 at 09:16 PM.

  7. #7
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    * "para-" or not is irrelevant. Neither was legal.
    * The supposed "cadre" thing never really worked. Wherever there are supposed examples of success (such as in Indochina) the success rested on indigenous unrest which was merely channelled. It was obvious that some Russians living in the Ukraine would fall for USSR nostalgia. This didn't require extra input.
    The "cadre" thing didn't work because otherwise no foreign troops would have been necessary. I remember how desperately some Russians were looking for people in the Eastern Ukraine finally stepping up against "fascism" etc. during the Majdan thing. Very little happened, and was probably FSB-driven. The insurrection thing isn't really indigenous either. Whatever support the FSB built up, Putin was clearly not as satisfied by it as were Westerners about the Majdan thing.

    * Europe did not "disarm".
    * European companies didn't really go into a spending spree in Russia. Direct and other investments were quite modest. More importantly, it wasn't done "then", after the peace dividend began. Foreign direct investments (from rest of world) in Russia only took off when the increased energy prices improved the Russian trade balance as well as after deregulation by 2006. It dropped sharply after 2008.
    see chart page 15
    They can hardly have made much money in these a few years.
    * It's not about whether Putin "respects Europeans". It's about whether he sees freedom of action or not. The personalising view on foreign policy ('I looked into his soul' stuff) is mostly bollocks on a continent that's rigged so fast as is Europe.
    * The United States trade almost entirely across two oceans; their ports are universal interfaces to world trade.
    Europe has more meaningful land connections to no less than three continents.
    It also has worked its way out of seemingly perpetual intra-European conflict by seeking more cooperation, and that era of conflict is still in (some's) living memory.
    It's typical American to think that cutting off some miscreants is a fine punishment. But to Europeans this means to cut off something meaningful. Confrontation instead of cooperation also risks a return of a pattern of hot conflicts.

    Few Europeans seem to be interested in getting caught in a real, European-style, war over the stupid borders of a multi-ethnic state with which their own country isn't allied.
    Playing with fire may be fun outdoors, but it's rather frowned upon in one's home.

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    Fuchs, I was used to your good habit to call things with their right names and your attempts to go to the roots of problems. Now you have twice rejected my comments, that there were Russian toops in Crimea (even Putin admitted this), you still have word "paramilitary" in your blog, I just don't understand you.

    About cadre. Crimea case is best case study, which shows worst case scenario. This took place in favourable circumstances. In less favourable circumstances this cadre acts just like spoiler among allies in EU and NATO. There are several scenarious between those I named. I just don't understand why some European countries underestimate Russians. Today we see that Russians can act very efficently. In January Barroso and van Rompuy told Putin "Mind your own business" and told him about Ukraine's independent choice. Today Europe is happy that OSCE observers are freed in Slavyansk by FSB guy. How can you say that Putin is happy or unhappy? Do you know what makes him happy? It would be really intersting to hear.

  9. #9
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Fuchs, I was used to your good habit to call things with their right names and your attempts to go to the roots of problems. Now you have twice rejected my comments, that there were Russian toops in Crimea (even Putin admitted this), you still have word "paramilitary" in your blog, I just don't understand you.

    About cadre. Crimea case is best case study, which shows worst case scenario. This took place in favourable circumstances. In less favourable circumstances this cadre acts just like spoiler among allies in EU and NATO. There are several scenarious between those I named. I just don't understand why some European countries underestimate Russians. Today we see that Russians can act very efficently. In January Barroso and van Rompuy told Putin "Mind your own business" and told him about Ukraine's independent choice. Today Europe is happy that OSCE observers are freed in Slavyansk by FSB guy. How can you say that Putin is happy or unhappy? Do you know what makes him happy? It would be really intersting to hear.
    Oh, you meant the blog.
    Well, again - I don't see much of a difference between paramilitary and military. Neither was legally allowed to be there, so I'm not downplaying anything. I wonder why you see much of a difference between a military man with an AK-74 and a paramilitary man with an AK-74. The difference is especially marginal in Russia with its USSR traditions. The KGB operated a coast guard that included anti-submarine and air defence systems, after all. Warsaw Pact 'worker militias' were always meant to be auxiliary military forces in the event of war.
    German paramilitary Cold War border guards were by defined as becoming combatants in the event of war.
    There's really not that much difference between military and paramilitary.

    And frankly, I'm not inclined to look up unreliable sources only to see whether the one or the other word is more accurate.
    _________

    The Slawjansk hostage episode was a show for the media. I doubt that the foreign politicians were stupid enough to fall for it and spend much time and effort on it.

    What's going to be interesting is what the Ukrainians do once they have FSB guys captured. We might see some old school "confession"-style videos which could be very dangerous to Putin's racket and I think he might be very concerned about this.
    I noted that the reports about the fighting in that town mentioned that the town was encircled. I wonder whether the encirclement is tight enough to really use it as a trap for the FSB personnel. They will likely not fight to the last man, after all.


    I suppose right now it's about time to offer Putin a face-saving way out. He's already at his culminating point.
    Let him build some more on his Crimea success (for Crimea is gone for good anyway), give him some political victory (such as Svoboda kicked out of government, something which the EU should like to see as well) and then he gets to write off the continental Ukraine.

    Then in the next years the West can demand concessions from Putin for not inviting the Ukraine into NATO (but merely equipping its army). Such as a satisfactory (to us) solution to the Abchasia and South Ossetia conflicts, ratification for the border treaty with Estonia, withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria, no S-300s for Iran and no arms exports to the Caucasus that could fuel a new war over Berg-Karabach.
    The best about this is that the threat of inviting them could be held up indefinitely. It's a self-regenerating bargaining chip.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    * "para-" or not is irrelevant. Neither was legal.
    * The supposed "cadre" thing never really worked. Wherever there are supposed examples of success (such as in Indochina) the success rested on indigenous unrest which was merely channelled. It was obvious that some Russians living in the Ukraine would fall for USSR nostalgia. This didn't require extra input.
    The "cadre" thing didn't work because otherwise no foreign troops would have been necessary. I remember how desperately some Russians were looking for people in the Eastern Ukraine finally stepping up against "fascism" etc. during the Majdan thing. Very little happened, and was probably FSB-driven. The insurrection thing isn't really indigenous either. Whatever support the FSB built up, Putin was clearly not as satisfied by it as were Westerners about the Majdan thing.

    * Europe did not "disarm".
    * European companies didn't really go into a spending spree in Russia. Direct and other investments were quite modest. More importantly, it wasn't done "then", after the peace dividend began. Foreign direct investments (from rest of world) in Russia only took off when the increased energy prices improved the Russian trade balance as well as after deregulation by 2006. It dropped sharply after 2008.
    see chart page 15
    They can hardly have made much money in these a few years.
    * It's not about whether Putin "respects Europeans". It's about whether he sees freedom of action or not. The personalising view on foreign policy ('I looked into his soul' stuff) is mostly bollocks on a continent that's rigged so fast as is Europe.
    * The United States trade almost entirely across two oceans; their ports are universal interfaces to world trade.
    Europe has more meaningful land connections to no less than three continents.
    It also has worked its way out of seemingly perpetual intra-European conflict by seeking more cooperation, and that era of conflict is still in (some's) living memory.
    It's typical American to think that cutting off some miscreants is a fine punishment. But to Europeans this means to cut off something meaningful. Confrontation instead of cooperation also risks a return of a pattern of hot conflicts.

    Few Europeans seem to be interested in getting caught in a real, European-style, war over the stupid borders of a multi-ethnic state with which their own country isn't allied.
    Playing with fire may be fun outdoors, but it's rather frowned upon in one's home.
    fuchs---you really cannot mean this;

    * Europe did not "disarm".

    What were the troops levels of all the NATO militaries during 1989 with tanks/APC/aircraft counts versus those numbers in 2014.

    What were the percentages of total budgets spent on each military in 1989 versus today 2014?

    Come on fuchs---Europe did not disarm.

    Few Europeans seem to be interested in getting caught in a real, European-style, war over the stupid borders of a multi-ethnic state with which their own country isn't allied.

    With the large internal movements of ethnic populations now going on among the 28 members of the EU I thought it was all about multi ethnic cultures so the EU only cares about what---it's own multi ethnic cultures but not about others outside the EU---extremely egocentric if you ask me as it appears that then the EU is only interested in how much money they can make in these "other multi cultural countires" that are not part of the EU.

    Come on fuchs you cannot believe your own sentence below;

    They can hardly have made much money in these a few years.

    Even at the height of the Cold War in the late 70s German companies were investing in and making money in Russia ---either directly or indirectly via the EU---remember once in 1973 the EU and that included Germany sold a massive amount of old Cold Storage stored butter (something like over 2000 tons) to the Soviet Union that made a ton of money for German farmers and the German government---and you really still believe there was not money to be made in the former Soviet Union and now Russia. Check the sheer amount of German investments made into Russia since 1994 and the profits taken out of that business and tell me they made little money. Heck Rheinmetal was sitting on a 200M Euro simulation center for the Russian Army that was giving them a 37% return on the sale as a profit--not bad at all and there was more in the simulation business pipeline for them after that sale.

    come on fuchs---
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-04-2014 at 10:32 AM.

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    "There are none so blind as those who will not see"

    If the European countries were to recognise what exactly is going on right under their noses they might have to do something about it.

    Europe today:



    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    fuchs---this actually goes to what I see as a complete European weakness---the lack of the ability to tell truth from propaganda and call it propaganda when it is propaganda.

    I have seen very very few articles in the European media pointing out to the massive Russian propaganda machine that is cranking out lie after lie into the Crimea, then eastern and now southern Ukraine.

    [Snip]

    Have you as an European noticed the subtle word changes by both proRussians and Russia/Putin---at first they were being called "federalizationists" now they are being called "separatists" THAT is a massive word usage shift and means only one thing---war.

    Check this link and the web site for a differing point of view that might not set well with Europeans.

    http://inforesist.org

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    fuchs---this actually goes to what I see as a complete European weakness---the lack of the ability to tell truth from propaganda and call it propaganda when it is propaganda.

    I have seen very very few articles in the European media pointing out to the massive Russian propaganda machine that is cranking out lie after lie into the Crimea, then eastern and now southern Ukraine.

    Many have focused on the east but the real battle will be for Odessa which links them then to their Moldavia enclave, controls the southern portion of the Ukraine and takes over the Black Sea port of Odessa cutting the Ukraine off from a major sea port and taking out a major source of export revenue. Actually NATO general Breedlove has indicated that is what he was assuming would happen but he got told to shut up and got cut off from the media by the US White House as it did not fit the current situation and it scared the Europeans especially Germany.

    This particular link is a video of evidently recent Russian aircraft reinforcements coming into the Crimea which has not been reported anywhere in Europe before-why not would be a good question for you?

    http://inforesist.org/video-mass-tra...rimea/?lang=en

    Also if one checks the web site they have an actual video of the attack on the Odessa building that resulted in a large loss of proRussian lives which is being drummed into the media by Russia and the "separatists" and will be the main cause for the Russia military crossing into Odessa from the Crimea---remember most of the elite Russian army units that came into Crimea have not left the Crimea but are in fact sitting nicely on the southern Ukrainian border regions is full strength--also seemingly forgotten by the Germans/EU/NATO.

    http://inforesist.org/video-what-was...dessa/?lang=en

    Check the Russian media version of the attack and then check the video and accompanying Ukrainian explanations and one will see hard core propaganda at work coupled with now claims from today that the eastern Ukraine is forming self defense battalions in order to attack Kiev-so a "ragtag" group of farmers, former soldiers, merchants and salesmen are going to march as a armed battalion on Kiev OR fuchs those "paramilitary types" that are numbered in about the 2500 range. AND the term paramilitary does not make a difference?

    Core is that the building was not firebombed by radical Nazis but rather set on fire internally on several floors and the tents were burnt down outside by actually proRussian demonstrators not radical proUkrainian soccer fans as depicted in the Russian media. BUT if one listens to eastern "separatists" they are now claiming they need Russian help to keep from being encircled and burnt alive referring to the Odessa event.

    Have you as an European noticed the subtle word changes by both proRussians and Russia/Putin---at first they were being called "federalizationists" now they are being called "separatists" THAT is a massive word usage shift and means only one thing---war.

    Check this link and the web site for a differing point of view that might not set well with Europeans.

    http://inforesist.org
    It is interesting that now the first European news agency is picking up the video info on the Russian fighter/bombers arriving in the Crimea---reported today also by AFP.

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    Fuchs:

    Then in the next years the West can demand concessions from Putin for not inviting the Ukraine into NATO (but merely equipping its army). Such as a satisfactory (to us) solution to the Abchasia and South Ossetia conflicts, ratification for the border treaty with Estonia, withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria, no S-300s for Iran and no arms exports to the Caucasus that could fuel a new war over Berg-Karabach.
    The best about this is that the threat of inviting them could be held up indefinitely. It's a self-regenerating bargaining chip.
    You must be joking Why should they leave Transnistria? Tell me that they will give it back to Moldova. They leave Armenia and Azerbaijan alone? Tell my why? Beacause Europeans are asking nicely? Do they care about nicesities? Of course Kremlin will say that they have no ambitions and MFA will say that civil society acts finally. For me personally Russia's social capital is zero. This article is very suitable to this topic and helps you to measure the truth level. If you are not familiar, then Nashi is Kremlin organised, financied, controlled organisation, whosw stepfather Surkov today coordinates CIS area. This organisation is dead today, but new ones are flourishing.

    Estonia had already formally complained of harassment of its diplomats in Moscow, but the protests on Wednesday were the most disruptive. The raucous protests forced the closure of Estonia’s consulate and the evacuation of diplomats’ families, about 20 people, said Franek Persidski, a spokesman for the consulate.

    Protesters attacked the Swedish ambassador’s car at the embassy, prompting a formal protest from Stockholm. They also attacked Ms. Kaljurand’s car as it left the offices of a magazine where she had held her news conference.

    Russia’s Foreign Ministry, questioned about the harassment of the diplomats, declined to comment. But a spokesman, Mikhail L. Kamynin, told Interfax, “We still believe that the tension and the reaction of civil society in Russia were provoked.”
    Last edited by kaur; 05-04-2014 at 10:53 PM.

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    Fuchs, I do understand the geographical thing you are saying. I don't remember at the moment when Putin has hinted that there are bargaining chips on the table. As I said in the EU-Russia summit in January leaders of EU told Putin "mind your own business and we will not discuss with you Ukrainian future". Putin went home, had nice olympic games in Sochi and said " F... you, EU!" grabbing Crimea and encouraging rebellion in other parts of country. Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Russians, economic levers, aggressive propaganda etc are all ways to say "F... you, if you don't do like I want." Russians are proposing peaceful solution to EU. There must be free trade area between Lisbon and Vladivastok in 2020, which is built according to formula EU + Eurasian Economic Union (were Russia intended to bring before last events Ukraine, Molodova, Central Asia countires etc). Nice plan, but didn't Russia cross some lines of point of no return? Quite few EU heavy weights think that he didn't and business as usual must continue. Looking at that Putin-Prohhanov-Dugin-Kurginjan etc СССР 2.0 show, Russia's road a head looks bad.
    Last edited by kaur; 05-05-2014 at 08:45 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    By the way the inforesist article was picked up on and verified by AFP roughly six hours later.
    Does the mere fact of repeating someone else's story verify its truth? If so, then the truth of the fairy tales of the Brother's Grimm must be indisputable.
    Who, by the way, is this expert, Alexei Savich, that the AFP post cites?
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Stan---hey dude as someone from the intel world why listen to CNN or BBC or the local Estonia news oven read the North Dakota Evening Times---they are say the same if your are correct and focus strictly on ratings on the internet usage.
    RB, good points and simple answers.
    Some of those sites you listed have a pristine reputation to uphold and won’t send innuendo to press. Not too sure about ND however !

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Why compare anything at all ---why even quote anything as kaur does from the Russian side-hey their ratings might in fact be higher based on numbers of Russian "having" internet onnetions--in this case--one Interfax is a voice pipe for the Russian government and the other a voice pipe of Ukrainians--but then I did not expect you to understand that.
    I’ve known Kaur for six or seven years, had beers, broke bread, etc. Although half my age, inspiring and would make a good buck sergeant. But, the level of experience that a Western government would expect from say an analyst is a far cry. I’m not betting the farm on your links, nor an inspiring SGT.

    Voice pipes. In the 20 years I've been here and 18 working for the Estonian govt., I have learned that even Estonian so-called voice pipes are not to be taken with a grain of salt. Unless of course, someone actually managed to slip TS info and get it published before being shot to death. You are then correct, that the Russians know we are reading, and, they are indeed sending this sierra to press hoping we do said. How we interpret said, well, that's where our successors' come into to play. That raw data must be accompanied with the reporter's spin, to include, at the very least, the source's reputation. I for one would not send that to the NMIC.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    No wonder EUCOM and other US entities get the world so wrong they fail to listen when the world is talking regardless of how the conversation is being carried my friend ---actually if you are interested watch anna.news they carry the proRussian, Russian and actually Syrian news events from Assad but hey maybe they are ranked 144,220 in usage and traffic ratings- so we are not to use them?--it is the words one must watch and listen to that use to be the smart intel way paralleling the means and methods side of the house.
    I would not go blaming EUCOM. Worked for them for years and they rarely had anything to say without DC pushing the buttons. All the O-10s in the world back then got a sound bite of say in decision making. But, you knew that already.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    By the way the inforesist article was picked up on and verified by AFP roughly six hours later.
    Yes Sir, it’s called a wire feed.
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

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