Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Firn]

Disregarding pretty much everything coming out of the Kremlin as deception and propagand and just looking at the deeds doesn't seem to be that stupid for now. I have invested yesterday a bit of time and read the Russian snapshot of the World Bank from October 2013, which does look at the economy in a systematic fashion. Some neat figures (2,4,6,10) and facts (table 1).

This comment in the german Zeit does reflect my views pretty well. The strange bunch which went to Crimea to 'observe' has been really a most amazing combination of extremist and partially criminal elements of European politics.

More about the visa issue:

"We should not be in a hurry with the introduction of a visa regime with Russia...," Yatseniuk's press service said, referring to comments the prime minister made in Brussels.

"Such an initiative by Ukraine is most unlikely to be effective in terms of influencing Russia," he said, adding that the measure could negatively affect Ukrainians living in the predominantly Russian-speaking east of the country.

I read that 3 million Ukrainian citziens are working in Russia, a number which does surprise me. Of course the wage differential should be rather large, less unemployment, little travel and labour restrictions, a long permeable border, most Ukrainians speak good Russians and so forth but I imagined the amount to be smaller. It would be interesting to know how many of those commute...

Perhaps they will ask 'only' for 'travel documents' without much ado, and push visas for now back. We will see.

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn--Merkel's speech today in Parliament before she left for Brussels was a hardening in her tone---something new for her and I think in general German politics. She also indicated that if the talking with Putin does not go anywhere Germany is prepared to go to hard sanctions even if it hits them.

When she spoke of the coming G8 meetings she stated what G8? and no G8 meeting as long as the surrounding politics do not allow it.

They have stopped all military sales to Russia which included new vehicles and a 140M USD simulation enter the Russians were counting on to improve their C&C and the CA fire and move element which they are still in from the 50/60s.

The UK has stopped their military sales as well which was a lot and the French are delaying the two carriers for Russia and Russian just demanded penalties if they do not deliver the first one on time.

Not sure Russia calculated this quick of a total stop to military sales as it was a planned part of their military rebuilding efforts especially the naval vessels with French technology.

Reference Die Linke -- Zeit newspaper article---they were pushing to join in a future political coalition with the SPD and Greens (red, red, green) and with their fallback into cold war rhetoric and their matching of Putin's Crimea arguments they basically killed that notion for the coming years as being politically kind of in an isolation mode with their views. Die Linke is a holdover of the former GDR Communist Party as well the former West German CP and is while a minority relativity strong % wise in the former GDR.

[Firn]

At least Italy send only a 'ndrangheta buddy honestly interested in the money or Russian asylum. Germany came up with two useful ideological idiots who seem to really believe their drivel.

Bloomberg TV got a knowledgable interviewee, he pretty much confirmed what was mentioned earlier in the thread. The Russian budget and the trade facts were quite revealing even without in-depth knowledge.

Putins mate Schroeder sold himself dearly on North Stream, he must be a most popular man in the Baltics.

And yes Merkel sounded surprisingly tough and there has been some actions in the 'defense' business.

[JMA]

Firn--Merkel's speech today in Parliament before she left for Brussels was a hardening in her tone---

my emphasis

Surely we are a long way past the need for a change in tone but rather in need of some action?

But good for her and Germany for showing more balls than contained in the current White House.

Before the focus on gutlessness stays only on Obama we need to remember that George Bush's bottle went with the Georgia crisis back in 2008 which sent a message to Russia. The Russians can be forgiven for interpreting the continued US draw down of troops in Europe as a withdrawal to avoid confrontation.

[JMA]

Russia’s moves in Ukraine are ‘wake-up call,’ NATO’s Rasmussen says in speech

“We live in a different world than we did less than a month ago,” Rasmussen said in a previously scheduled Brookings Institution speech that was adjusted to reflect a sudden crisis that he called Europe’s “gravest threat . . . since the end of the Cold War.”

No true... it is just that some were delusional.

Fire this guy... now.

[OUTLAW 09]

JMA---IMO I view the US troop draw down as a not to subtle signal to Russia that the US was in fact no longer interested in the European area. If you look at the European NATO countries they have all gone to volunteers and reduced their size and military spending as "peace and stability had broken out" and although they did support in some ways in Iraq and AFG they were on a glide path of military reductions overall. Couple that with the US pulling out and couple that with a complete Russian military rebuild with new weapons and a professional army you have in effect the creation of a regional superpower that has nuclear weapons and that can indeed threaten all of Europe as the so called "unipolar" US was not in a position nor did it really want to play any longer the strong man in Europe so we are where we now are.

When the largest standing Army in Europe is now the Turkish Army then we are in real trouble.

If you notice there is nothing on the military card being played outside of proposed and or actual planned exercises-and talk--only the movement of aircraft which was responded by the Russian AF stepping up their activities---so really not much in the way of military card---all even including Germany have shut out a military response out of fear of triggering something that is uncontrolled breaking out.

This is historically the second time that the US has signaled to Russia ie the Soviet Union that US interests/intentions did not expand to specific areas.

If I recall ---not sure which major Allied Conference---believe it was Yalta then the US signaled that Korean was not in 'it's sphere of influence"---to which a startled Stalin asked twice for clarification.

Some say this in fact triggered the NK invasion as Stalin felt we were not interested in the outcome of Korea.

By taking troops, depots, material out of Europe we indirectly/inadvertently signaled basically the same thing.

Straight diplomacy alone ---and I am going out on a limb here has not achieved anything on any specific world political problem since 1999---if one looks hard it has been in combination with military force and or a tight set of economic sanctions.

So I am hard pressed to understand why this WH thought diplomacy was all one needed for soft power.

[JMA]

JMA---IMO I view the US troop draw down as a not to subtle signal to Russia that the US was in fact no longer interested in the European area.

Exactly

[OUTLAW 09]

To all it is rather interesting to track Russian viewed news items on Interfax.com---------

Here is just a few interesting tidbits----

15:01 Moscow perplexed by OSCE/ODIHR's non-inclusion of its candidate in Afghanistan mission

Sometimes I am even surprised by what the Russians are thinking.

14:18 Russia against "higher ante" in Iran negotiations because of Ukraine events – diplomat

Again just what did they expect to happen?

13:23 Lukoil doubts domestic fuel delivery quota idea will be implemented

Sounds as if they are planning for actual sanctions and want to protect local fuel supplies.

12:51 RZD not much interested in Crimean ports - Yakunin

Now this goes to something Firm stated previously as well as did David.

[carl]

So I am hard pressed to understand why this WH thought diplomacy was all one needed for soft power.

None of us here can, especially guys like you and JMA. You come from a different world than they do, a wholly different world. What you guys know to be true about the world because you've seen it and smelled it, they have never seen or even read about. If they did read about it they wouldn't believe it.

Our problem is Putin and the Red Chinese understand them perfectly.