Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Fuchs]

Russians are arguing that they need now their own rating agency but that is 10 years away and with Russian criminal activity no one would trust the agency so they are tied to the three US rating agencies forever so to speak.

Hardly.
The U.S. rating agencies have no competence in their core business to speak of - they merely have market shares and reputation.

Plenty smaller rating agencies exist which could easily jump start subsidiaries or joint ventures.

Besides, rating agencies are so very useless, nobody "needs" them - other than for rackets. It's about time we establish test runs to expose how useless the financial sector's judgement on risks is. I've seen it myself many times; flipping coins would be quicker, cheaper and in no way inferior to bankers deciding on business loan requests.

[kaur]

Last June there was roundtable in Nezavisimoje Vojennoje Obozrenije office, where colonel in reserve Igor Strelkov (the FSB guy now in Eastern Ukraine. Sitting by general Balujevski) explained how to fight terrorism in Russia. First you have to kill the leaders of terrorist, destroy their bases outside war theatre and close your borders for resupply. How Ukrainians should follow this advice?

http://anna-news.info/node/11634

What is Strelkov group doing in Eastern Ukraine? Here is nice explanation.

Many terrorist factions care about the level of popular support they enjoy within
a population they claim to represent. Empirically, this level of support can either rise
or fall in the aftermath of a campaign of terrorist violence. Under what circumstances
is the use of terror an effective tactic for mobilizing political support for an extremist
group? This paper models a scenario in which an extremist faction considers attacking
a government in the hopes of provoking a counterterror response that will radicalize
the population, increasing the extremists' support at the expense of a more moderate
faction. In our scenario, such radicalization can result either from the economic damage
caused by counterterror operations or by the way in which such operations change the
population's assessment of the government's motivations. We demonstrate that such
attempts at mobilizing public support can be, but need not be, successful, discuss
factors that make both the initiation of a terror campaign and successful mobilization
more or less likely, and relate our results to several empirical cases

http://www.nyu.edu/gsas/dept/politic...propaganda.pdf

[kaur]

To mirhond (Sorry moderator for text in Russian). Russian Kremlin connected statistical firm's analysis from January 2012 explains why Putin has chosen nationalist rhetoric to stay in power. Huge amount of Russians (most of them in countryside) support nationalistic ideas + nostalgie for Soviet time, when life was much better. Putin has choosen for his third term Prohhanov, Dugin and Kurginjan as his official ideologues. Kurginjan was the guy, who protected putch in 1991 and gave working place to head of KGB Krjutchkov (member of coup commitee).

Основной общественный запрос русского большинства в регионах явно направлен в
левонационалистическую сторону. По данным ВЦИОМ (2011), либеральный путь развития
сегодня готовы поддержать лишь 18% россиян. Гораздо больше тех (62%), кто готов
поддержать противоположный — скорее силовой сценарий, который мог бы радикально обновить российские элиты, политический класс, централизовать ресурсы на решение
стратегически значимых задач1. Однако и это консервативное большинство общества все в
меньшей степени связывает свои надежды с нынешним государством и его властными
институтами. Учитывая стремительную актуализацию националистической идеи, пусть в
относительно мягкой, приемлемой для большинства форме, именно от
левонационалистической идеологии можно ожидать статуса наиболее актуальной, способной
объединить новорусскую нацию в период ее становления. Это «русское большинство» при всех
накопившихся претензиях к путинской власти, все же относится к Путину намного более
терпимо, чем к большей части «сахаровских» лидеров, и на предстоящих выборах, вне всякого
сомнения, поддержит его. В своих программных статьях в «Известиях» Путин обращается
именно к этому провинциальному большинству, говоря об олигархах, разбогатевших на
залоговых аукционах середины 90-х и скупающих в Европе футбольные клубы. Но условная
поддержка Путина со стороны этой части электората еще не означает, что
левонационалистическая повестка будет снята, напротив, время ее еще только начинается. За
русских националистов борются и власть, и оппозиция. Власть приглашает на высокую
должность в правительстве Д. Рогозина, ее поддерживают ветераны национал-патриотической
мысли А. Проханов, А. Дугин и С. Кургинян.

http://wciom.ru/fileadmin/Monitoring...07_4_Byzov.pdf

Look at this Kurginjan organised pro Crimea meetin in the center of Moscow (15.03.2014). Is this style copying somebody? You can find Hitler's Nurmberg rally yourself. Kurginjan's event is of course joke in comparsion.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0vyneLOuWI

[Stan]

Russian Air Force helicopters began flying on the border with the Baltic countries

MOSCOW, April 30 - RIA Novosti. Helicopters Army Aviation WEST Russia began flying over the North-West of the country, told reporters on Wednesday the head of the press service of the Western Military District, Colonel Oleg Kochetkov.

"Army Aviation Brigade crews Western Military Region, stationed in Pskov region, started planning a training flight in the skies over the North-West of Russia. First rise in the sky at the same time a squadron of different types of attack helicopters were armed WEST, Mi-28N" Night Hunter "and Ka-52" Alligator "- said Kochetkov

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Air Force helicopters began flying on the border with the Baltic countries

Stan---was behind four US Army Sustainment convoys headed from Berlin to Poland via Frankfurt Oder---three with four trucks each carrying two shipping containers.

Sustainment trucks were from KTown and they handle all container shipping for deploying units---were being accompanied by German MPs running flashing blue lights and were not maintaining required speeds then they were picked up by Polish MPs---looks like they were headed eastwards in a hurry.

Looks like the 173rd is in for a longer stay where they landed.

[OUTLAW 09]

kaur---a good find---the use of reservists is the Russian way of plausible deniability ---meaning hey we have no active duty personnel or the ground because you have not asked about nor mentioned reservists. The US does not seem to get the current Russia word usage meaning if they say red then they really mean yellow if they say green then they really mean pink---really does goes back to the Communist term dialectic materialism.

Secondly, watch the tactics actively shifting now as the population has not been pulled along with the buildings being taken over as in the Crimea so now they are trying to build a center of gravity around how many buildings equals the inability to hold the 25th of May elections so they can argue hey see we did not vote for the illegitimate government so we want Russia to step in and protect us.

Interesting is the fact that the local population while proRussian still does not want to de facto shift to Russia even with the massive agitation going on by the KGB/FSB/GRU and the Russian TV/radio media reports.

Like these two quotes on dialectic materialism from the past:

"Motion is the mode of existence of matter. Never anywhere has there been matter without motion, or motion without matter, nor can there be."

"Change of form of motion is always a process that takes place between at least two bodies, of which one loses a definite quantity of motion of one quality (e.g. heat), while the other gains a corresponding quantity of motion of another quality (mechanical motion, electricity, chemical decomposition).

"Dialectics, so-called objective dialectics, prevails throughout nature, and so-called subjective dialectics (dialectical thought), is only the reflection of the motion through opposites which asserts itself everywhere in nature, and which by the continual conflict of the opposites and their final passage into one another, or into higher forms, determines the life of nature."

Fredrick Engels
Dialectics of Nature

But dialectical materialism insists on the approximate relative character of every scientific theory of the structure of matter and its properties; it insists on the absence of absolute boundaries in nature, on the transformation of moving matter from one state into another, that from our point of view [may be] apparently irreconcilable with it, and so forth.

Vladimir Lenin
Materialism and Empirio-criticism

kaur---when one looks at how the self defense leaders all of a sudden assumed leadership check the Russian term "samoswanzy" from the 1584 period---it goes along way in explaining how they think and act.

[Fuchs]

3. GDP is estimated at right now .02% and sinking to potentially zero or lower if that is technically possible

It's not because you forgot to add "growth" behind "GDP".

[AmericanPride]

Meanwhile, the counter-Maiden in eastern Ukraine continues to escalate as the authority of Kiev collapses. From New York Times, quoting the (unelected) President in Kiev:

“Inactivity, helplessness and even criminal betrayal” plague the security forces, the acting leader, Oleksandr V. Turchynov, told a meeting of regional governors in Kiev. “It is hard to accept but it’s the truth. The majority of law enforcers in the east are incapable of performing their duties.”

What has Kiev done to ensure the loyalty of its security officers? Probably not as much as Moscow has done in trying to subvert them. And as I've mentioned previously, the austerity program will continue unabated and without regard for the political consequences:

On top of nerves, Ukraine’s economy is worryingly frail. The board of the International Monetary Fund voted Wednesday to approve $17 billion in loans for Ukraine, with conditions that will undoubtedly be felt as hardships by ordinary Ukrainians. Igor Burakovsky, head of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, said on Wednesday that Ukraine’s foreign debt amounts to $73.2 billion.

It's easy to blame Moscow for the complete failure in political strategy, and to suggest that there's an SVR/GRU boogeyman behind every unhelpful event, but the truth of the matter is that the Kiev administration has done nothing whatsoever to rebuild its legitimacy in the eastern regions and with ethnic Russians. The anti-Kiev sentiment is strong, and the organization and resources (allegedly) provided by Moscow does nothing to help matters. But this is an eastern mirror of the Maiden events in Kiev that ousted Yanukovych, and like Yanukovych, the Kiev administration has been careless in providing opportunities for its opposition to exploit.

And of course, in desperation with the failure of the regular army and the national guard units to actually secure the eastern territories by force, Kiev introduces conscription (which was originally abolished by Yanukovych):

Ukraine's pro-Western leaders conceded on Wednesday they were 'helpless' to counter the fall of government buildings and police stations to the separatists in the Donbass coal and steel belt of eastern Ukraine, source of around a third of the country's industrial output.

From BBC:

On Thursday, his office said in a statement that conscription was being introduced "given the deteriorating situation in the east and the south... the rising force of armed pro-Russian units and the taking of public administration buildings... which threaten territorial integrity".

It appears that Kiev administration's political position is increasingly untenable.

[kaur]

mirhond, thank you for forcing me to think

— Если отталкиваться от типа населенных пунктов, то где поддержка Путина выше, а где ниже?

— Максимум поддержки Путина сегодня приходится на большие и средние города. Особенно те, где сохранились остатки советской промышленности, которые заставляют людей ориентироваться на поддержку государства. Затем, по убывающей, идут малые города с населением до 250 тысяч и средние депрессивные города. Еще более низкая поддержка Путина — в селе. В совокупности малые, средние депрессивные города и село представляют собой консервативную провинцию, где фиксируется сильное напряжение и недовольство, связанное с отказом государства от выполнения социальных обязательств. А ниже всего поддержка Путина в Москве.

Если мы возьмем охват аудитории Первого канала, ВГТРК и НТВ, то он составляет более 90% населения, в то время как интернетом для получения новостей пользуются не более 20% россиян. Соответственно, люди зависят от того, что им говорит телевидение

.

http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2014/0..._5948629.shtml

AmericanPride, wouldn't it be more easy to handle Eastern Ukraine problems without Russian special services guys acting as provocators? I speculate that without Taliban it would be easier to promote peaceful solutions in Afganistan. Isn't easier to solve problems without spoilers?

[AmericanPride]

AmericanPride, wouldn't it be more easy to handle Eastern Ukraine problems without Russian special services guys acting as provocators? I speculate that without Taliban it would be easier to promote peaceful solutions in Afganistan. Isn't easier to solve problems without spoilers?

Yeah - probably. But is it realistic to expect that?

EDIT: Also, I'm willing to bet that the Kremlin's masters are thinking something similar: wouldn't it be easier to maintain Ukraine's allegience without American money and political interference acting as spoilers?

[carl]

Yeah - probably. But is it realistic to expect that?

EDIT: Also, I'm willing to bet that the Kremlin's masters are thinking something similar: wouldn't it be easier to maintain Ukraine's allegience without American money and political interference acting as spoilers?

Heck yea it's realistic to expect Russki spec ops types not to be there. You oppose them and force them out. There are many ways. They range from shooting them dead or putting a lot of pressure, actual real live that really hurts pressure, on Vlad the would be Great to withdraw them. But it requires action.

Yea you're right the Kremlin masters are probably thinking that. They probably thought the same thing about Western support for pesky Polish shipyard workers in the old days.

[AmericanPride]

Yea you're right the Kremlin masters are probably thinking that. They probably thought the same thing about Western support for pesky Polish shipyard workers in the old days.

And that's the point. The morality of it is irrelevant. As you said, "results matter". And the result thus far has been continued Russian success, Ukrainian instability, and Western posturing. I don't think Moscow wants escalation any more than Washington does, insofar that escalation increases the chances of a decision point between credibility and costly intervention. The low-level agitation works in Moscow's favor and it'll be interesting to see how it shapes the elections - assuming they're going to be held. What we should be doing is attempting to mitigate any further losses rather than reversing Russia's gains.

[carl]

And that's the point. The morality of it is irrelevant. As you said, "results matter". And the result thus far has been continued Russian success, Ukrainian instability, and Western posturing. I don't think Moscow wants escalation any more than Washington does, insofar that escalation increases the chances of a decision point between credibility and costly intervention. The low-level agitation works in Moscow's favor and it'll be interesting to see how it shapes the elections - assuming they're going to be held. What we should be doing is attempting to mitigate any further losses rather than reversing Russia's gains.

You say "...we should be doing...". That is the key and effectively we are doing nothing right now. Mitigate, reversing, prevent, defending-we can figure that out but none of it can be done unless we get to doing.

[mirhond]

mirhond, thank you for forcing me to think

— Если отталкиваться от типа населенных пунктов, то где поддержка Путина выше, а где ниже?

http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2014/0..._5948629.shtml

AmericanPride, wouldn't it be more easy to handle Eastern Ukraine problems without Russian special services guys acting as provocators? I speculate that without Taliban it would be easier to promote peaceful solutions in Afganistan. Isn't easier to solve problems without spoilers?

1. Again, approval does not mean support.
2.

чем дольше на территории была советская власть, тем больше люди придерживаются советских патерналистских взглядов. Чем дальше на запад Украины, тем свободнее люди.

That's a message from West Ukraine to East - you are all soviet scum, while we are the paragons of freedom. So, why you still surprised that Kievan junta political sentiments arn't popular in the East? You can't handle the fact that these people don't like to be called bad names? Bad for you, then, your ignorance remain untouched.
3. I speculate that the world without poverty, illiteracy, inequality, opression, armies and organised religions would be much better - will my speculations help the reality?

[carl]

Meanwhile, the counter-Maiden in eastern Ukraine continues to escalate as the authority of Kiev collapses. From New York Times, quoting the (unelected) President in Kiev:

What has Kiev done to ensure the loyalty of its security officers? Probably not as much as Moscow has done in trying to subvert them. And as I've mentioned previously, the austerity program will continue unabated and without regard for the political consequences:

It's easy to blame Moscow for the complete failure in political strategy, and to suggest that there's an SVR/GRU boogeyman behind every unhelpful event, but the truth of the matter is that the Kiev administration has done nothing whatsoever to rebuild its legitimacy in the eastern regions and with ethnic Russians. The anti-Kiev sentiment is strong, and the organization and resources (allegedly) provided by Moscow does nothing to help matters. But this is an eastern mirror of the Maiden events in Kiev that ousted Yanukovych, and like Yanukovych, the Kiev administration has been careless in providing opportunities for its opposition to exploit.

The current Kiev government has only been around a short time so they are outmatched by an organized military assault by Russia (sans unit patches of course). That isn't really an excuse because results matter right now. However results do matter in the long run too. We'll see how the Ivans do if they keep moving into Ukraine. The Ukrainians have a tradition of insurgency which matters in small war.

I don't know how strong the anti-Kiev sentiment is. Maybe, but most of the reports I read seem to indicate the people involved are Russian spec ops, drunks, Russian riot tourists and thugs. The latest XX Committee blog entry has a story about how the streets in the affected towns are empty except for the people I mentioned above. The Roma are gone because they were chased out.

And of course, in desperation with the failure of the regular army and the national guard units to actually secure the eastern territories by force, Kiev introduces conscription (which was originally abolished by Yanukovych):

From BBC:

It appears that Kiev administration's political position is increasingly untenable.

I find it completely unremarkable that a country under attack institutes conscription. The Kiev administrations military position seems to be very bad and maybe getting worse. Political position? That is a longer run thing. We'll see.