Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Stan]

'We're Not Laughing Anymore,' Says EU Commissioner On Relations With Russia

The European Union's enlargement commissioner, Stefan Fuele, says the EU has contributed to the current conflict in Ukraine by "failing" to understand Russian President Vladimir Putin's past statements about the legacy of the U.S.S.R.

But first, he acknowledged, the 28 EU member-states must put aside their own internal differences and find common cause in engaging constructively with Russia. A number of European members -- including Germany, the Mediterranean states, Hungary, and Finland -- are seen as putting economic ties with Russia ahead of a unified EU front.

More at the link and videos too

[kaur]

Following youtube links are in Russian.

Ukrainian SBU claims that they have got phone call between Donetsk self defence forces and Russian fascist Barkashov, where Barkashov gives intructions about referendum in Donetsk. "No federalisation, just Donets Respublic"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xeCWGxGVUk

Look at this video, where Barkashov tells about 1993 white house attack, where at 0:45 you can see faschist greeting by troops. Text about motives are interesting, but I don't have time to translate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlG86r2uasM

[Fuchs]

I wondered already how long it would take till both sides accuse each other of being in cahoots with fascists...

[kaur]

Google translate from a book about Russian nationalists.

The most intensive training militants conducted in the spring - summer 1993. In Moscow suburban bases of RNE experts from GRU , MVD and FSB conducted training barkashovskih militants with an emphasis on fighting in urban enivronment and subversive activities . They practiced assaults of buildings and usage of explosives.
Not only naziz capital , but also the " fighters" from province. For example, in September 1993, a such training was held for korup form Krasnoyarsk , where was located second bigges organisation of RNE.
The abundance of representatives from security services in training suggests supporting the Nazis someone from the country's leadership . Barkashovites prepared to revolt . "Even in the spring of '93 RNE preparing for the fall events. Our bases actively trained stormtroopers , developed plans for various operations , "- said later the then head of the Security Service Alexander Denisov RNE .
Barkashov himself in April confidently stated that by autumn the situation in the country escalated dramatically , with the RNE in the protracted confrontation between the president and members of parliament to support the latter, " if need be, physically."

http://eajc.org//data/image/books/18/09/9/18099_d.pdf

[kaur]

Greetings to Dugin and Barkashov from Donbass.

[Firn]

Pretty early in this thread we discussed the huge problems Russia would face supplying the occupied Crimea, be it water, gas, oil, electricity and food. The headline Crimean Citizens to Get Russian Gas sounds promising, but for now the reality is:

Crimea is also facing a shortage of gasoline and diesel supplies resulting from its annexation, as the majority of its supplies were delivered overland from Ukraine. Russia has not yet been able to resolve the supply issue with the small oil terminal in the port city of Kerch, on the eastern side of the peninsula.

Pretty much what we said, capacity just doesn't grow magically and severing natural economic ties comes at high costs. BTW if Ukraine did indeed cut the water supply from the NCC at the entry it will take some weeks, I think, to be felt in Crimea. IIRC there is also another channel watering southwest Ukraine towards Odessa, possibly they might be able to divert also there.

The highly likely collapse in tourism, perhaps the most important source of private revenue has promted some Russian plans. If the pension and public wages will get the promised big rise the Crimean economy will be dominated by the state.

According to data from the Russian tourism watchdog, Rostourism, nearly 6 million tourists visited Crimea last year, of which 65 percent were Ukrainians and 25 percent, Russians. The 2014 season will be different, warned Irina Schegolkova, a spokesperson for Rostourism.

"This year, the Crimean government plans to welcome about 3 million people, the majority of them Russians," she said, adding that in previous years most Russians either drove to Crimea in their cars or traveled by rail. For Russians, that means a detour through potentially hostile territory, which most will be unwilling to risk, she added: "The only alternatives are developing direct flights to Crimea or ferry connections."

So after talking about a moderate reduction in tourism demand a month or so ago the have at least cut them to a more propable number, only 50%. Still too high in my books, but we will see.

[kaur]

1 opinion.

Russia intends to sit and watch Kiev suppress the rebellion in the southeast.

There are probably two reasons for this. The first is the fear of economic sanctions that the U.S. and Germany have threatened to impose in the event of any military intervention. The second is that Moscow does not want to get involved in a conflict that could be potentially destructive for its economy over large territories with large economic problems and a predominantly Ukrainian population whose sentiments are far from uniform, which Russia has never been particularly interested in.

Ukrainian forces will most probably regain control over those territories in time to make it possible to conduct a presidential election on May 25 with at least a semblance of legality.

It would however be erroneous to interpret this as a sign that an end to the Ukrainian crisis is in sight. A military operation, conducted by poorly trained troops and with support of paramilitary nationalist groups, cannot but cause anger among the population.

Ukraine is doomed to a long political crisis with a further radicalization of politics, with the factors of ethnicity, language and religion coming to the fore.

By refusing to intervene in Ukraine's southeast we have not averted the threat of sanctions but have just bought ourselves some time to prepare for them by re-orienting our economic, science, technology and other ties towards Asia and by putting import-replacement programs in place.

http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/book/Rus...-Ukraine-16623

[mirhond]

Following youtube links are in Russian.

Ukrainian SBU claims that they have got phone call between Donetsk self defence forces and Russian fascist Barkashov, where Barkashov gives intructions about referendum in Donetsk. "No federalisation, just Donets Respublic"

Aww, how sweet, old warhorse Barkashov, uheard and unseen along with his RNE for 20 years, is now in action again. Well, Kremlin shows mad skillz in political assets management

Meanwhile in Mariupol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSWwAPsO3Q0

Translation from 3:00
Soldier: Mr Yatzenuk &Co. thanks a lot for 1300 Hr(about 110 $) two months wage. Wish you everything I've heard from my brothers and systers here and in Kiev. I am ashamed. Think of it, we may turn the column against you.

Guys are little bit nervous, public doesn't show respect.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=XMvhQRPYPEA

[carl]

mirhond:

Were you able to find out what Putin's net worth is and what his salary is?

[carl]

I wonder how much Germany counts for anymore. Maybe it is time to stop worrying about them and 'Europe' and start thinking about countries like Ukraine, Poland, Czech Republic, Sweden etc.

[kaur]

Fuchs:

P.S.: Germany has a positive attitude towards Russia, and it goes both ways. Germans thank Gorbachev more for the reunification than Bush, Mitterand and Thatcher combined.

Have you heard about this news?

MOSCOW, April 10 (RIA Novosti) – Members of Russia’s lower house of parliament have filed a request with the prosecutor general demanding the breakup of the Soviet Union be declared illegal and those responsible be prosecuted, including former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, Russian media reported Thursday.
According to the Izvestia newspaper, the request, filed by members of several parties, says that in a 1991 referendum Soviet citizens voted to maintain the state’s territorial integrity, but the country’s leaders then committed illegal acts that led to the collapse.
In November 1991, a criminal proceeding was launched against Gorbachev, but the charges were dropped on the next day.

One of the initiators of the request, United Russia deputy Yevgeny Fyodorov, told RIA Novosti that the move was driven by a necessity to investigate the mechanisms of coups staged from abroad in the wake of current events in Ukraine.

This deputy Fyodorov is head of NOD movement.

Yet, Moscow hasn't been entirely successful at covering its tracks. When pro-Russian forces declared a "People's Republic of Donetsk" on April 6 and demanded with it a Crimea-style referendum, several separatists thanked the "National Liberation Movement" (NLM) for supporting their endeavour. This supposedly grassroots movement is led by Putin. (In the photo above, NLM supporters distribute flyers at a rally in Donetsk on March 1.)
Since 2011, the NLM (or RusNOD as it's commonly known in Russia) has been fomenting pro-Russian sentiments throughout "the Russian world" -- the Russky Mir, as Putin has encouraged Russians to say when referring to the lands of the former Russian and Soviet Empires.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...eedom_fighters

In their news section is one cossack atamans' meeting. Just example of their style.

http://rusnod.ru/news/theme3580.html

So, today in Russia there are forces in action that don't look at the history the same way as Germans. One-sided love?

[Fuchs]

So, today in Russia there are forces in action that don't look at the history the same way as Germans. One-sided love?

Look closely at what you wrote here and at what I wrote here.

And then read this definition.

It's self-explaining.

I wonder how much Germany counts for anymore. Maybe it is time to stop worrying about them and 'Europe' and start thinking about countries like Ukraine, Poland, Czech Republic, Sweden etc.

You're more than a decade behind the curve.

Even proven stupid politicians were smart enough to walk away from this attitude.
NATO in East Europe would collapse militarily if Germany turned neutral and Germany's economic influence on Russia is much greater than the American one.

http://atlas.media.mit.edu/profile/country/rus/
Russian exports to Germany: 6.1 %
Russian exports to USA: 5.0%

Russian imports from Germany: 15%
Russian imports from USA: 3.6%

You should wonder how much the United States count for anymore. They're having a loud voice, yet little substance in Russia's European backyard.
Obama seems to understand this.

[carl]

You're more than a decade behind the curve.

Darn. late to the party again.