Putin's Ukraine U-turn: why it makes sense for Russia to allow Kiev victory
Eastern Ukrainian separatists have emerged as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s biggest critics in the past few weeks.
Their pleas for Russia to intervene militarily have been ignored. Moreover, as they were pleading for help, Putin turned to his legislature and asked it to rescind his mandate to use military force in Ukraine.
This modest policy change in Moscow was reaffirmed in the Berlin agreement on 2 July, which called for a ceasefire and new talks aimed at resolving the conflict. The key element of the new agreement is strengthening control of the Russian-Ukrainian border amid the closure of border checkpoints and incidents of shelling on Russian territory from the Ukrainian side of the border. Kiev and Western governments are intent on sealing the border and cutting off the separatists’ supplies. If implemented, this will be an important gesture by Moscow amid Kiev’s stepped-up campaign of so-called anti-terrorist operations.
It is also noteworthy that the word “junta” has disappeared from Russian state media’s descriptions of the government of Ukraine. In addition, Ukraine and Russia have held new talks about gas deliveries and future plans for Crimea. In retrospect, the build-up of Russian troops along the border in recent weeks appears to have been a face-saving act, or even a hedge against the possible movement into Russia of fighters from eastern Ukraine.
Putin’s policy shift makes sense for a number of reasons...
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