Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
What are these options you allude to? Care to elaborate?
The usual: trade restrictions, travel restrictions, asset freezes... the same economic sanctions that have generally been ineffective elsewhere.

It is of course true that the Russian economy is not exactly a pillar of strength and a really aggressive combines US/EU sanctions regime could do a lot of damage. Since the EU (particularly Germany, which has a major chunk of the economic leverage) is clearly in no mood to go along with an aggressive sanctions package, that reality doesn't mean much. Sanctions would hurt the Europeans as much as the Russians, and the EU economies aren't exactly doing brilliantly either. The European governments have more concerns with public opinion than Putin does, and odds are that they will blink first.

This comment from Daniel Drezner pretty much sums up the sanctions problem

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...kraine-crimea:

Daniel Drezner, a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, said that with Europe reluctant to endorse a broad sanctions regime, the kinds of measures being contemplated by the White House were unlikely to be more than an “irritation” to Putin.

“The trade the US has with Russia is pretty minimal,” he said. “And Europe is highly unlikely to restrict the trade that matters – in energy. They can cause Russia a little economic pain but not much.”
Unilateral US sanctions are not going to hurt the Russians enough to make a difference: the economies just aren't that closely linked.

Multilateral sanctions with the EU taking an aggressive position would cause real pain, but the EU is not likely to go along.

Realistically, then, economic sanctions are not likely to make much difference, unless the US and EU act aggressively and in concert. Figure the odds on that.

I'll leave it to others to outline the realistic military options, but so far there doesn't seem to be much on the table.

Realistically, I'd guess that if Putin is willing to stop with Crimea, he'll probably get away with it. If he tries to bite off more... that would depend on how much it takes to get the Europeans agitated enough to make a move. The Economic leverage is with Europe, not the US.