Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[OUTLAW 09]

* "para-" or not is irrelevant. Neither was legal.
* The supposed "cadre" thing never really worked. Wherever there are supposed examples of success (such as in Indochina) the success rested on indigenous unrest which was merely channelled. It was obvious that some Russians living in the Ukraine would fall for USSR nostalgia. This didn't require extra input.
The "cadre" thing didn't work because otherwise no foreign troops would have been necessary. I remember how desperately some Russians were looking for people in the Eastern Ukraine finally stepping up against "fascism" etc. during the Majdan thing. Very little happened, and was probably FSB-driven. The insurrection thing isn't really indigenous either. Whatever support the FSB built up, Putin was clearly not as satisfied by it as were Westerners about the Majdan thing.

* Europe did not "disarm".
* European companies didn't really go into a spending spree in Russia. Direct and other investments were quite modest. More importantly, it wasn't done "then", after the peace dividend began. Foreign direct investments (from rest of world) in Russia only took off when the increased energy prices improved the Russian trade balance as well as after deregulation by 2006. It dropped sharply after 2008.
see chart page 15
They can hardly have made much money in these a few years.
* It's not about whether Putin "respects Europeans". It's about whether he sees freedom of action or not. The personalising view on foreign policy ('I looked into his soul' stuff) is mostly bollocks on a continent that's rigged so fast as is Europe.
* The United States trade almost entirely across two oceans; their ports are universal interfaces to world trade.
Europe has more meaningful land connections to no less than three continents.
It also has worked its way out of seemingly perpetual intra-European conflict by seeking more cooperation, and that era of conflict is still in (some's) living memory.
It's typical American to think that cutting off some miscreants is a fine punishment. But to Europeans this means to cut off something meaningful. Confrontation instead of cooperation also risks a return of a pattern of hot conflicts.

Few Europeans seem to be interested in getting caught in a real, European-style, war over the stupid borders of a multi-ethnic state with which their own country isn't allied.
Playing with fire may be fun outdoors, but it's rather frowned upon in one's home.

fuchs---you really cannot mean this;

* Europe did not "disarm".

What were the troops levels of all the NATO militaries during 1989 with tanks/APC/aircraft counts versus those numbers in 2014.

What were the percentages of total budgets spent on each military in 1989 versus today 2014?

Come on fuchs---Europe did not disarm.

Few Europeans seem to be interested in getting caught in a real, European-style, war over the stupid borders of a multi-ethnic state with which their own country isn't allied.

With the large internal movements of ethnic populations now going on among the 28 members of the EU I thought it was all about multi ethnic cultures so the EU only cares about what---it's own multi ethnic cultures but not about others outside the EU---extremely egocentric if you ask me as it appears that then the EU is only interested in how much money they can make in these "other multi cultural countires" that are not part of the EU.

Come on fuchs you cannot believe your own sentence below;

They can hardly have made much money in these a few years.

Even at the height of the Cold War in the late 70s German companies were investing in and making money in Russia ---either directly or indirectly via the EU---remember once in 1973 the EU and that included Germany sold a massive amount of old Cold Storage stored butter (something like over 2000 tons) to the Soviet Union that made a ton of money for German farmers and the German government---and you really still believe there was not money to be made in the former Soviet Union and now Russia. Check the sheer amount of German investments made into Russia since 1994 and the profits taken out of that business and tell me they made little money. Heck Rheinmetal was sitting on a 200M Euro simulation center for the Russian Army that was giving them a 37% return on the sale as a profit--not bad at all and there was more in the simulation business pipeline for them after that sale.

come on fuchs---

[JMA]

"There are none so blind as those who will not see"

If the European countries were to recognise what exactly is going on right under their noses they might have to do something about it.

Europe today:

fuchs---this actually goes to what I see as a complete European weakness---the lack of the ability to tell truth from propaganda and call it propaganda when it is propaganda.

I have seen very very few articles in the European media pointing out to the massive Russian propaganda machine that is cranking out lie after lie into the Crimea, then eastern and now southern Ukraine.

[Snip]

Have you as an European noticed the subtle word changes by both proRussians and Russia/Putin---at first they were being called "federalizationists" now they are being called "separatists" THAT is a massive word usage shift and means only one thing---war.

Check this link and the web site for a differing point of view that might not set well with Europeans.

http://inforesist.org

[OUTLAW 09]

"There are none so blind as those who will not see"

If the European countries were to recognise what exactly is going on right under their noses they might have to do something about it.

Europe today:

JMA---like it---the Russians have been repeating over and over they have no control over the armed "separatists" and now they are "demanding" the OCSE/PACE do something.

Interfax from today:

15:28 RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY: WE DEMAND THAT OSCE AND COUNCIL OF EUROPE INSTITUTIONS IMMEDIATELY MAKE AN OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN UKRAINE

In some aspects the Ukrainian government now has the US/EU over a barrel as well as the Russians---the EU/US have gone on full record they will move to the stage three sanctions against broad sectors of the Russian economy basically gas/oil and the banking system which in the end will result is a collapsing of the Russian internal/external economy if Russia moves into the Ukraine---that is a public statement and one hard to back down from without losing face in their respective countries.

Now along comes the Odessa fire and the Ukrainian government making moves against the cities/towns held by the "separatists" and are actually making headway which in the end will slow down if not stop the "separatist" movements thus a failure of the Russian UW plan for destabilizing the Ukraine.

Russia is clawing at the bit to cross over under whatever excuse they can create/come up with even if it was a fire caused by their own supporters, but in fully knowing the economic pain it will cause which has become evident to them in the last week or so.

So they cross over and get hit and their economy collapses---so is the Ukraine moving now because they feel Russia is in a checkmate position meaning inadvertently the US/EU finally got it right unknowingly and the Russians on the other hand if without any major reason for crossing do in fact cross over get politically isolated for years to come struggling to reconstitute their economy all the while claiming to be a superpower---am 300% sure Putin does now realize the hole he is in as it is a lose lose position, and I am not sure why fuchs here wants the West to get him out of that hole.

An interesting accidental turn of events.

[JMA]

JMA---like it---the Russians have been repeating over and over they have no control over the armed "separatists" and now they are "demanding" the OCSE/PACE do something.

Oh yea? Last time OSCE people deployed they were arrested by the Russian proxies (should start using this term) and so could not do their job.

So tell the Russians... you had your chance and you blew it - and as we used to say back in the day... tango sierra or the Russian version... toughski sh*tski

Interfax from today:

15:28 RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY: WE DEMAND THAT OSCE AND COUNCIL OF EUROPE INSTITUTIONS IMMEDIATELY MAKE AN OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN UKRAINE

In some aspects the Ukrainian government now has the US/EU over a barrel as well as the Russians---the EU/US have gone on full record they will move to the stage three sanctions against broad sectors of the Russian economy basically gas/oil and the banking system which in the end will result is a collapsing of the Russian internal/external economy if Russia moves into the Ukraine---that is a public statement and one hard to back down from without losing face in their respective countries.
[snip]

The trick is to go for the jugular. If what it takes for full oil/gas and banking sanctions then the Russians should be encouraged to invade. This will work because the US and EU have proved they don't give a damn about what happens to the people of Ukraine anyways.

First step is to take the Russians back to the geographic status quo prior to the invasion of Crimea. They would need to pay reparations to Ukraine - make it $1trillion for starters and thereafter free gas and oil for ten years at current consumption rates. Also all holders of Russian passports would be repatriated to Russia unless they were in the possession of a Ukrainian work-permit and wanted to stay. Then the repatriation of any Crimean Tartars back to Crimea that want to go - with say $1million resettlement allowance per family.

Second step is to make sure that states/areas/regions in the Russian Federation where Russians constitute less than two-thirds of the population the process to self determination and full independence is initiated. This would apply to 13 of the 22 of the so-called Russian Republics. This merely a first step. the next would be to establish the ethnic Russian demographic back say 100 years and reverse that migration in the remaining 9 republics. Then Kaliningrad. Fix this, it is not Russian. Tale all the Russians home and hand it over to whoever it belonged to before the Soviets occupied it.

Third step is to deal with Putin and the oligarchs. Where ever their money is if that country finds it it is theirs not Russian. The British and others can sell off the assets for their own account.

Fourth, steps need to be taken that any oil/gas that would remain in Russia after the breakup will need to be used to pay reparations and fund the independence of the current vassal states in the Russian Federation. Probably need to wind-up Gasprom and others and let Exon-Mobil or BP or whatever to take over.

Fifth, Russia would not be allowed to maintain any army/airforce/navy and other than police and a few SWAT teams that's all.

Of course none of this will happen because the Russians know that any mention of their nuclear weapon arsenal causes the national wetting of the pants right across the US and most of Europe.

[carl]

E

In some aspects the Ukrainian government now has the US/EU over a barrel as well as the Russians---the EU/US have gone on full record they will move to the stage three sanctions against broad sectors of the Russian economy basically gas/oil and the banking system which in the end will result is a collapsing of the Russian internal/external economy if Russia moves into the Ukraine---that is a public statement and one hard to back down from without losing face in their respective countries.

Now along comes the Odessa fire and the Ukrainian government making moves against the cities/towns held by the "separatists" and are actually making headway which in the end will slow down if not stop the "separatist" movements thus a failure of the Russian UW plan for destabilizing the Ukraine.

An interesting analysis. The most interesting thing to me is if it is true, a critical factor will be how well the Ukrainians fight. Despite all the talk of soft power, influence and economic sanctions, a critical factor is how well some small groups of men fight. Just like forever.

[OUTLAW 09]

fuchs---this actually goes to what I see as a complete European weakness---the lack of the ability to tell truth from propaganda and call it propaganda when it is propaganda.

I have seen very very few articles in the European media pointing out to the massive Russian propaganda machine that is cranking out lie after lie into the Crimea, then eastern and now southern Ukraine.

Many have focused on the east but the real battle will be for Odessa which links them then to their Moldavia enclave, controls the southern portion of the Ukraine and takes over the Black Sea port of Odessa cutting the Ukraine off from a major sea port and taking out a major source of export revenue. Actually NATO general Breedlove has indicated that is what he was assuming would happen but he got told to shut up and got cut off from the media by the US White House as it did not fit the current situation and it scared the Europeans especially Germany.

This particular link is a video of evidently recent Russian aircraft reinforcements coming into the Crimea which has not been reported anywhere in Europe before-why not would be a good question for you?

http://inforesist.org/video-mass-tra...rimea/?lang=en

Also if one checks the web site they have an actual video of the attack on the Odessa building that resulted in a large loss of proRussian lives which is being drummed into the media by Russia and the "separatists" and will be the main cause for the Russia military crossing into Odessa from the Crimea---remember most of the elite Russian army units that came into Crimea have not left the Crimea but are in fact sitting nicely on the southern Ukrainian border regions is full strength--also seemingly forgotten by the Germans/EU/NATO.

http://inforesist.org/video-what-was...dessa/?lang=en

Check the Russian media version of the attack and then check the video and accompanying Ukrainian explanations and one will see hard core propaganda at work coupled with now claims from today that the eastern Ukraine is forming self defense battalions in order to attack Kiev-so a "ragtag" group of farmers, former soldiers, merchants and salesmen are going to march as a armed battalion on Kiev OR fuchs those "paramilitary types" that are numbered in about the 2500 range. AND the term paramilitary does not make a difference?

Core is that the building was not firebombed by radical Nazis but rather set on fire internally on several floors and the tents were burnt down outside by actually proRussian demonstrators not radical proUkrainian soccer fans as depicted in the Russian media. BUT if one listens to eastern "separatists" they are now claiming they need Russian help to keep from being encircled and burnt alive referring to the Odessa event.

Have you as an European noticed the subtle word changes by both proRussians and Russia/Putin---at first they were being called "federalizationists" now they are being called "separatists" THAT is a massive word usage shift and means only one thing---war.

Check this link and the web site for a differing point of view that might not set well with Europeans.

http://inforesist.org

It is interesting that now the first European news agency is picking up the video info on the Russian fighter/bombers arriving in the Crimea---reported today also by AFP.

[OUTLAW 09]

fuchs---you speak of Europeans---let's talk about German positions in the Ukrainian/Russian fight.

As I indicated to you Germans love to talk and then to talk and talk---they are basically afraid of action in any form.

Here they go again---another conference to end all the other conferences.

Die Ausschreitungen in der Ukraine finden kein Ende, internationale Vereinbarungen zum Gewaltverzicht in dem Land greifen bislang nicht. Auenminister Steinmeier wirbt daher jetzt fr eine zweite Genfer Konferenz zur Beilegung des Konflikts.

[kaur]

Fuchs:

Then in the next years the West can demand concessions from Putin for not inviting the Ukraine into NATO (but merely equipping its army). Such as a satisfactory (to us) solution to the Abchasia and South Ossetia conflicts, ratification for the border treaty with Estonia, withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria, no S-300s for Iran and no arms exports to the Caucasus that could fuel a new war over Berg-Karabach.
The best about this is that the threat of inviting them could be held up indefinitely. It's a self-regenerating bargaining chip.

You must be joking Why should they leave Transnistria? Tell me that they will give it back to Moldova. They leave Armenia and Azerbaijan alone? Tell my why? Beacause Europeans are asking nicely? Do they care about nicesities? Of course Kremlin will say that they have no ambitions and MFA will say that civil society acts finally. For me personally Russia's social capital is zero. This article is very suitable to this topic and helps you to measure the truth level. If you are not familiar, then Nashi is Kremlin organised, financied, controlled organisation, whosw stepfather Surkov today coordinates CIS area. This organisation is dead today, but new ones are flourishing.

Estonia had already formally complained of harassment of its diplomats in Moscow, but the protests on Wednesday were the most disruptive. The raucous protests forced the closure of Estonia’s consulate and the evacuation of diplomats’ families, about 20 people, said Franek Persidski, a spokesman for the consulate.

Protesters attacked the Swedish ambassador’s car at the embassy, prompting a formal protest from Stockholm. They also attacked Ms. Kaljurand’s car as it left the offices of a magazine where she had held her news conference.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry, questioned about the harassment of the diplomats, declined to comment. But a spokesman, Mikhail L. Kamynin, told Interfax, “We still believe that the tension and the reaction of civil society in Russia were provoked.”

[Fuchs]

Kaur, it's difficult to see the strategic view when one is under impression of recent events and situations.

Look at a map, and remember how central to Russia it is to have a buffer in front of Moscow. NATO would be within 500 km of Moscow if Ukraine joined. He has to prevent this at almost any cost, or else his successful poker game about the Crimea would enter history books as totally backfired and disastrous to Russia strategically.

Russia can also not gulp the Ukraine in its entirety. We know how they got Chechnya under control; they flooded the country with more troops than there were civilians. They cannot do this with the Ukraine, even the Chinese couldn't pull this off.
There's no substantial Russian population in the Ukrainian territory the most close to Moscow, though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogr...ne#Nationality

So even if Putin was able to bite off all Ukrainian areas with a relative majority of Russians he would merely guarantee that the remainder would seek an alliance with the West - and NATO would at Moscow's doorsteps (by Russian standards).

The threat of inviting the Ukraine is a huge and reusable bargaining chip of the West.

[JMA]

Look at a map, and remember how central to Russia it is to have a buffer in front of Moscow. NATO would be within 500 km of Moscow if Ukraine joined. He has to prevent this at almost any cost, or else his successful poker game about the Crimea would enter history books as totally backfired and disastrous to Russia strategically.

Given Russia's recent expansionism I suggest those who thought NATO was obsolete have been proved to be complete idiots.

The only European expansionism Russia needs to fear is financial/commercial/economic. Maybe you can provide a scenario where a NATO presence 500km from Moscow is a military threat to Russia other than if the Russians are planning actions which may/could result in NATO action?

Is it not obvious to you - as a German - that these small and vulnerable nations/countries seek protection under the NATO umbrella from subjugation and domination by a Russia with dreams of empire?

[OUTLAW 09]

For those that have been writing here ----there has been totally missed in some or most of the comments---what are we in fact seeing now in the Crimea, eastern/southern Ukraine and with developments from today in Latvia and Russian attack helicopter flight training on the Estonian border---nothing more nor less than a new Russian UW strategy in a political warfare environment. We also have to mix in criminal elements and the oligarchs to get a better picture.

The following links were taken as I have stated a number of times from often overlooked websites and the "tip" on one led to the two links which are extremely critical in understanding what the Russians are calling New Generation Warfare broken into Phases. and how the US/EU/NATO are not even in the same game or on the same playing field.

Now take the Phases and overlay them on the hour to hour events in the Crimea, eastern and southern Ukraine and now with Lativa and one sees the relationship to their new strategy on winning a peace without going to war---or rather a Russian Sun Tzu approach.

Actually a number of posts here have been dancing around various Phases of the New Generation Warfare.

This is from the SWJ other side---Why Does Special Forces Train and Educate for Unconventional Warfare?

David---this link goes to what you have been writing about having a UW strategy and in the light on the Ukraine events, the cancelling of the Russian/Lithuanian Confidence Building treaty, and the new Russian Attack Helicopter Bde flight exercises along the Estonian border.

http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/6757...y-for-russias-...

The article goes to heart of the new Russian strategy referred to as the New Generation Warfare.

There is a 15 page pdf explaining the current Russian doctrine in this new UW strategy.

http://is.gd/berzins


Thanks Outlaw 09.

One of our students from Finland passed this on to me last week and it is getting a lot of press.

A very timely and informative (and I think potentially very important) report from the Latvia - the National Defence Academy of Latvia and the Center for Security and Strategic Research.

The PDF of the report can be downloaded at this link: http://www.naa.mil.lv/~/media/NAA/AZ...2002-2014.ashx
Note the excerpted figure one below for the assessment of Russia's view of the changing character of armed conflict. Also of note below that are the eight phases of the new generation of war.

I think this is a good analysis of the Russian version of unconventional and political warfare and we should study this so that we can develop the strategy to counter these forms of unconventional warfare and political warfare.

David---now take the Phases and one can overlay them on the exact hour by hour events in the Crimea, eastern and southern Ukraine and then watch the entire information operations unfold, the use of irregulars on the ground reinforced by intelligence officers and Spretnaz coupled with the Russian public political maneuvering ie 21 Feb agreement, Geneva, and Putin calls to US/EU leaders which really led nowhere but gained time and you have the perfect learning module for why one needs now a national level strategic UW strategy in order to counter political warfare or in this case what the Russians are calling New Generation Warfare.

And along the way do not forget the use of criminal elements and the oligarchs as part of the concept layered over by an ideology called ethnic nationalism.

Then watch our responses which have not even begun to answer the individual Phases the Russians are running through in a steady fashion---worth a doctorial thesis.

Question is what would Lind call it --4th or 5th generation warfare as it is a quantum leap forward and a leap we as a Force are not prepared (including senior military leadership/WH) for as we have gone in an entirely different direction misguided by COIN.

Robert might have some interesting comments on this as it drifts into his comments on war and peace---actually the Russian concept is to avoid war and gain peace as they define peace---they are as close to Sun Tzu as one can get in their thinking.

[Stan]

Russian attack helicopter flight training on the Estonian border-

The Estonian press and MOD are not taking this current and past trend very seriously. Why should they... We see it every year and coincidentally with an increase in aircraft and paratroopers.

Note to Outlaw: This could be considered the worst intel link known to man, but, sadly, most Estonian youth actually read it and believe it too.

However, the MOD statements are real.

It's hard to cry wolf here when you see him every day in one form or another.

[kaur]

Russia Bound to Win Its Proxy War in Ukraine
By Alexander GoltsMay. 05 2014 22:34 Last edited 22:34

It seems that Kiev is much to blame for the Ukrainian crisis in general. At the same time, however, it is a pardonable mistake. After Russia annexed Crimea and pro-Russian separatists seized one city after another, the public demanded that Ukrainian leaders take decisive action to try to control the chaos. But in recent decades, leaders everywhere have failed to achieve victory against paramilitary forces that use civilians as human shields.

Objectively speaking, Russia is waging a proxy war in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine that it is bound to win. While Moscow flatly denies any meddling in Ukraine, the facts speak otherwise. Several Ukrainian Army helicopters were recently shot down near Slovyansk by man-portable air-defense systems, or MANPADS. These weapons are not stored in police stations or even Ukrainian security service offices, meaning that the insurgents could not have seized them locally. What's more, it takes considerable skill to operate a MANPAD. The most likely explanation is that these weapons were brought in by units of Russia's special forces.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...ne/499534.html

Look at this launch. Nice filming position. Reminds me camera work from Iraq. Before launch guy, who films says "Davai!" which means "go". Text says that tape was given to Russian daily "Komsomolskaya Pravda" journalists.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h4LjkTFGNeg

This FSB guy Strelkov has brought Chechen insurgents know how to Eastern Ukraine.

[kaur]

Fuchs, I do understand the geographical thing you are saying. I don't remember at the moment when Putin has hinted that there are bargaining chips on the table. As I said in the EU-Russia summit in January leaders of EU told Putin "mind your own business and we will not discuss with you Ukrainian future". Putin went home, had nice olympic games in Sochi and said " F... you, EU!" grabbing Crimea and encouraging rebellion in other parts of country. Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Russians, economic levers, aggressive propaganda etc are all ways to say "F... you, if you don't do like I want." Russians are proposing peaceful solution to EU. There must be free trade area between Lisbon and Vladivastok in 2020, which is built according to formula EU + Eurasian Economic Union (were Russia intended to bring before last events Ukraine, Molodova, Central Asia countires etc). Nice plan, but didn't Russia cross some lines of point of no return? Quite few EU heavy weights think that he didn't and business as usual must continue. Looking at that Putin-Prohhanov-Dugin-Kurginjan etc СССР 2.0 show, Russia's road a head looks bad.

[wm]

By the way the inforesist article was picked up on and verified by AFP roughly six hours later.

Does the mere fact of repeating someone else's story verify its truth? If so, then the truth of the fairy tales of the Brother's Grimm must be indisputable.
Who, by the way, is this expert, Alexei Savich, that the AFP post cites?

[Firn]

Russia to Prosecute Crimean Tatar Protesters Over Unrest

On Saturday, Crimean authorities promised to dish out criminal charges to the group, which numbered about five thousand, according to the BBC Russian service. The group broke through border posts near the city of Armyansk and crossed the border into the buffer zone between Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula to meet Mustafa Dzhemilev, former head of the Crimean Tatar Mejlis, the ethnic group's representative body.

The group blocked several highways near Simferopol, Bakhchysarai, Stary Krym, Yevpatoriya and Oktyabrskoye, Interfax-Ukraine reported.

It is early times, early times. There was some promising talk about the respect for the Tartar minorities. Personally I already doubted the Russian ability to tackle the economic challenges, like the crushing fall in tourism and largely peacefully integrate the large and younger Ukrainian and Tartar minorities.

Putin initiated war and ethnic hatred, which is easy to start but hard to stop. So far he might be 'winning', but the Russians are already losing in other areas. The war comes not only at short-term price economically but the increasingly regime-like internal repressions will likely take their toll on the long-term prospects of the economy. Russia is indeed becoming more and more dependant on private consumption which relies to a large degree on the state's policies which in turn are still increasingly dependent on raw ressources, especially energy.

[OUTLAW 09]

Does the mere fact of repeating someone else's story verify its truth? If so, then the truth of the fairy tales of the Brother's Grimm must be indisputable.
Who, by the way, is this expert, Alexei Savich, that the AFP post cites?

wm---and who is this person typing this response Alexei Savich or a UK citizen---the question and your responses can always be twisted which ever way one decides to take a response that is the freedom on this particular blog--come over to the other site and see if your responses get attention for yourself.

The article and video by the way has been both confirmed to have actually been recorded when it was, and reflects heavy aircraft movement by type by both the Washington Post editors as well as the NYTs and has been picked up by the German news media der Spiegel.

So wm who really cares whose name is on the article for that matter we could use yours if you would like.

Did in fact the video confirm or deny an event is the question and who really give a flip about the name.

[wm]

wm---and who is this person typing this response Alexei Savich or a UK citizen---the question and your responses can always be twisted which ever way one decides to take a response that is the freedom on this particular blog--come over to the other site and see if your responses get attention for yourself.

First I do not have a clue who the guy is. The name I offered up, Alexei Savich, is cited as an aviation expert by the AFP article you placed such stock in as a verification. I would like to know his bone fides as an aviation expert. Second, I would appreciate your being a little more explicit about which other site you would like me to come over to. The Internet is a pretty big place.

The article and video by the way has been both confirmed to have actually been recorded when it was, and reflects heavy aircraft movement by type by both the Washington Post editors as well as the NYTs and has been picked up by the German news media der Spiegel.

The article and video have confirmed nothing as far as I can tell. I've looked at open source satellite imagery of military airfields in Crimea dated 2014. Those airfields had significant numbers of Soviet-era combat fighter aircraft as well as larger aircraft. (I'll admit my "squint" skills have atrophied so I'm not sure what they all were, and I did not have a light table to look at them as closely as one might like.) For all I know the videos and reports you cite are just people seeing those aircraft flying around to get ready for some kind of flyby for Putin on Friday.

The following account, from page 43 of John Prados' [I]The Soviet Estimate[/I, details the source of the 1950's "bomber gap" and is rather instructive I think:

The Russians scheduled another flyover for their Air Force Day ceremonies . . . . [T]he US air attach to the Soviet Union , Colonel Charles E. Taylor, went out to Tushino to watch the air parade. It appears that the Soviets . . .execute a deceptive flyover. Taylor saw first ten then eighteen Bison jet bombers fly past the reviewing stand . . .. The flyover was deceptive because the Soviets evidently pressed into service every available Bison and then had the first serial of planes circle, out of sight of the reviewing stand, to make a second pass overhead.

For confirmation, here from Wikipedia, is an alternative report, citing a completely different source,

Adding to the concerns was an infamous event in July 1955. At the Soviet Aviation Day demonstrations at the Tushino Airfield, ten Bison bombers were flown past the reviewing stand, then flew out of sight, quickly turned around, and flew past the stands again with eight more, presenting the illusion that there were 28 aircraft in the flyby. Western analysts extrapolated from the illusionary 28 aircraft, judging that by 1960 the Soviets would have 800.[5]

[5] Heppenheimer, T. A. (1998). The Space Shuttle Decision. NASA. p. 193.

So wm who really cares whose name is on the article for that matter we could use yours if you would like.

Did in fact the video confirm or deny an event is the question and who really give a flip about the name.

A good analyst cares whose name is on a report because source evaluation is a significant part of analysis. An IIR was (and I presume still is) evaluated in terms of the source and the content. The need for both should be obvious: a good source can be deceived and thus report as true something that is false, as the story above makes poignantly clear about Col. Taylor.

[OUTLAW 09]

First I do not have a clue who the guy is. The name I offered up, Alexei Savich, is cited as an aviation expert by the AFP article you placed such stock in as a verification. I would like to know his bone fides as an aviation expert. Second, I would appreciate your being a little more explicit about which other site you would like me to come over to. The Internet is a pretty big place.


The article and video have confirmed nothing as far as I can tell. I've looked at open source satellite imagery of military airfields in Crimea dated 2014. Those airfields had significant numbers of Soviet-era combat fighter aircraft as well as larger aircraft. (I'll admit my "squint" skills have atrophied so I'm not sure what they all were, and I did not have a light table to look at them as closely as one might like.) For all I know the videos and reports you cite are just people seeing those aircraft flying around to get ready for some kind of flyby for Putin on Friday.

The following account, from page 43 of John Prados' [I]The Soviet Estimate[/I, details the source of the 1950's "bomber gap" and is rather instructive I think:



For confirmation, here from Wikipedia, is an alternative report, citing a completely different source,




A good analyst cares whose name is on a report because source evaluation is a significant part of analysis. An IIR was (and I presume still is) evaluated in terms of the source and the content. The need for both should be obvious: a good source can be deceived and thus report as true something that is false, as the story above makes poignantly clear about Col. Taylor.

wm---you do understand that any IIR from a field HUMINT collector that is not a technical collector is in fact always a F6---hope you understand the significance of F6? And yes if you know the IIR collection system even an US Ambassador who is reporting via Cables is also a F6 as is the reporting from a OGA field agent a F6.

Before a F6 is in fact converted to a higher classification by the analyst there is far more in play than source and content as stated in the report. Have actually seen in some really stupid sounding/looking IIRs trigger a major reaction because a single word was mentioned and it had nothing to do with source and or content.

Am assuming you are evidently aware that sometimes a F6 has a single sentence in the report body and a single sentence in the Summary which in the end can trigger a formal report to the NCA ie the WH---you are aware of such reports since you are evidently a solid expert in IIRs and how the analyst works?

So again you seem to fully not understand the intel collection world just as you wedre not in Europe in 1989 so get real.

[wm]

wm---you do understand that any IIR from a field HUMINT collector that is not a technical collector is in fact always a F6---hope you understand the significance of F6? And yes if you know the IIR collection system even an US Ambassador who is reporting via Cables is also a F6 as is the reporting from a OGA field agent a F6.

Before a F6 is in fact converted to a higher classification by the analyst there is far more in play than source and content as stated in the report. Have actually seen in some really stupid sounding/looking IIRs trigger a major reaction because a single word was mentioned and it had nothing to do with source and or content.

Am assuming you are evidently aware that sometimes a F6 has a single sentence in the report body and a single sentence in the Summary which in the end can trigger a formal report to the NCA ie the WH---you are aware of such reports since you are evidently a solid expert in IIRs and how the analyst works?

So again you seem to fully not understand the intel collection world just as you wedre not in Europe in 1989 so get real.

If you reread the last paragraph in the post that led to the above response, you will note that I spoke about the analyst doing source and content evaluation.

BTW, one wonders why the language in your blog posts is so much more coherent than what is displayed on SWC threads. Do you have a ghost writer?