Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[kaur]

1600 GMT: While Russia is presenting the referendum today as a move to save the region from neo-Nazis, a large number of the ‘independent observers’ spotted monitoring the vote today come from Europe’s extreme right.

A sample of the far right figures here includes:

Bela Kovacs – a Hungarian MEP for the neo-Nazi Jobbik party.

Aymeric Chauprade – a nationalist, pro-Russian political theorist and member of France’s far-right Front National, whose leader, Marine Le Pen has supported Russia’s stance on Ukraine and condemned “extremists” in the Maidan movement.

Frank Creyelman – a Belgian MEP for the far-right Vlaams Belang party (formerly Vlaams Blok).

Ewald Johann Stadler – an MEP in the late Jörg Haider’s Bündnis Zukunft Österreich (Alliance for the Future of Austria).

Luc Michel – active with various neo-nazi groups in Belgium and is a supporter of Eduard Limonov’s National Bolshevik party.

Others include communists or those with nostalgic sympathies for the Soviet Union such as Angourakis and Al-Sabty, or those with extremely close ties to United Russia such as Johan Bäckman. Bäckman is a finish Finnish political activist who has been involved with pro-Russian actions in both Finland and Estonia, including involvement with Nashi activity.

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukrain...eferendum-day/

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---if you did not know this common former Communist saying then you were born what after say 1995---even your parents still know it---come on dude---it is still the internal saying for the KGB/MoI riot police today in Moscow in the 21st century

I know you know this old Stalin/KGB saying;
"One person is a demonstration, Two people a riot and Three people a revolution"

Secondly, you are right if you were born after say 1995 you would have never seen the red arm bans of the soviet auxiliary police who were communist party members.

Cannot fault you for not knowing what you do not know but then again you seen to not be so well informed of what is going on inside of your own country.

[OUTLAW 09]

kaur---the UAV shoot down reports are manufactured KGB/FSB disinformation for several reasons;

The UAV named by the Russian private electronic warfare company Rostec indicated that it was a Hunter UAV which is a larger version of the Shadow which allows for great loiter time---using their own designation the following are questions they did not answer.

1. just what is a Russian private company doing working in the Crimea together with Russian troops
2. the range of the Hunter is 125 miles and even with a strong tail wind out of Bavaria where they claimed it was launched it would have not even come close to be over the Crimea
3. the US Army unit mentioned is based in Darmstadt and has no Hunters assigned to it
4. the Hunter could have been launched by a US Navy ship but there is only one destroy in the immediate area of the Crimea and it carries no Hunters
5. if this UAV is jammed as Rostec claimed and receives no ground signal it goes into a recovery loiter mode which is pre programed prior to start for another area other than what it is flying over then if jammed it goes into the recover to loiter area mode---if it then runs out of fuel during loiter mode a parachute deploys lowering it to the ground.

So all in all the story has no legs and is a blatant misinformation effort by the KGB/FSB.

[OUTLAW 09]

kaur---you bring up a good point about the observers---many were from EU communist/left parties even out of Germany and a lot were neo rightist/separatists and neo Nazi's WHY would be the question after the Russian FM, the Foreign Ministry, and Putin and the Russian propaganda machine beats up daily on Ukrainian because they are neo radials/right wing Nazi's.

Answer is rather simple but overlooked--they come from parties that are seen as separatists in their own countries thus lending credibility to the separatists in the Crimea----sometime communists and Putin is one never seem to change the color of their beliefs.

If one looks at a circle of violence going from right to left at some point on that circle both cross each other in their desires (to take over the State by discrediting it) and wants then they move on to violence both left and right.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---now tell me the former KGB/Putin does not "rule" Russia and Putin does not have a KGB "history" and do not tell me his inner circle is not KGB.

18 Sep 2007

Siloviki take reins in post-oligarchy era


Russia's "siloviki" - the network of former and current state-security officers - maintain an unprecedented level of control over political and economic life, and are likely to consolidate that power in the upcoming elections. From RFE/RL.

By Victor Yasmann for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The hubbub surrounding Russia's upcoming Duma elections in December and the March 2008 presidential election swung into high gear this month, but the key question is not whether the country will take a new direction but rather how will the status quo, the existing arrangement of political forces, be maintained.
Virtually all key positions in Russian political life - in government and the economy - are controlled by the so-called "siloviki," a blanket term to describe the network of former and current state-security officers with personal ties to the Soviet-era KGB and its successor agencies.

The unexpected replacement of former Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov by former Federal Financial Monitoring Service Director Viktor Zubkov is the latest consolidation of this group's grip on power in Russia. Although Zubkov is not an intelligence officer by background, he has become one de facto during his years at the Financial Monitoring Service, and he has intimate knowledge of where the country's legal and illegal assets are to be found.

The core of the siloviki group, led by former KGB officer and Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Vladimir Putin himself, comprises about 6,000 security-service alumni who entered the corridors of power during Putin's first term. Now, as Putin's second term winds down, their clout is virtually unassailable. Their locus of power is in the presidential administration: deputy chief of staff Igor Sechin cut his teeth in the KGB's First Main Directorate, which oversaw foreign intelligence operations and has since been transformed into the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). Fellow deputy chief of staff Viktor Ivanov worked for the KGB's main successor organization, the FSB, which is responsible for counterintelligence operations.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---can you explain to us just how it is "possible" that while Russia condemns neo Nazi's and radical right wingers in the Ukraine the following neo Nazi's and radical right wingers participated in "democratic" elections in the Crimea---just how did they get on when Russia "stopped" all traffic from the Ukraine entering into the Crimea out of "fear" of terror attacks by the Ukrainian neo Nazi's.

Seems like you all have double standards when it fits your argument does it not?

Come on dude get a better argument and stop ranting and raving as most seven year olds have on any given day better arguments .

1600 GMT: While Russia is presenting the referendum today as a move to save the region from neo-Nazis, a large number of the ‘independent observers’ spotted monitoring the vote today come from Europe’s extreme right.

A sample of the far right figures here includes:

Bela Kovacs – a Hungarian MEP for the neo-Nazi Jobbik party.

Aymeric Chauprade – a nationalist, pro-Russian political theorist and member of France’s far-right Front National, whose leader, Marine Le Pen has supported Russia’s stance on Ukraine and condemned “extremists” in the Maidan movement.

Frank Creyelman – a Belgian MEP for the far-right Vlaams Belang party (formerly Vlaams Blok).

Ewald Johann Stadler – an MEP in the late Jörg Haider’s Bündnis Zukunft Österreich (Alliance for the Future of Austria).

Luc Michel – active with various neo-nazi groups in Belgium and is a supporter of Eduard Limonov’s National Bolshevik party.


Hope they did not "infect" the democratic people of the Crimea with their views while they were there.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---come on man---born in 1978 and how old by 1995 when the Red Army withdrew from the GDR what 17/18 and you never heard of that saying--where were you in the SU---in Minsk or Moscow? Know you had to have been in the Communist Youth Movement and still you did not hear the saying?

That is like Rostec recently stating they downed an American drone which they identified as a Hunter over the Crimea which was launched from Barvaria. By the way the photo they showed is similar to your photo (it showed a drone carrying missiles) and the Hunter does not carry missiles.

This is what I meant by using photos and only portions out of quoted articles "that allude" to your arguments--- any information can be used in any way---just depends on the person creating the "story" and how he "wants" to "sell" the story--much like you do.

If you "bought" that story (since the Hunter has a range of only 125miles) then I will be more than happy to sell you the TV tower here in Berlin Mitte.

It is kind of like you baiting against neo Nazi's in the Ukraine, but then cheering them on in the Crimea as "election observers" of a "democratic election".

You did I suppose not see the CCN video footage of an individual dropping TWO ballots into the electoral boxes---guess that was what "Crimean democracy" at work.

Come on get real---double street driving is really hard sometimes.

[mirhond]

mirhond---can you explain to us just how it is "possible" that while Russia condemns neo Nazi's and radical right wingers in the Ukraine the following neo Nazi's and radical right wingers participated in "democratic" elections in the Crimea---just how did they get on when Russia "stopped" all traffic from the Ukraine entering into the Crimea out of "fear" of terror attacks by the Ukrainian neo Nazi's.

Seems like you all have double standards when it fits your argument does it not?

Double standarts is completly OK in Politics, as you know. Well, if you don't know this - it's bad for you, you might be greatly disappointed with reality.
May be you still believe in ethic and moral standarts in politics?
Anyway, I'd be grateful if you at least try to falsify my arguments and disprove evidences which I posted here.

While Russia is presenting the referendum today as a move to save the region from neo-Nazis, a large number of the ‘independent observers’ spotted monitoring the vote today come from Europe’s extreme right.
A sample of the far right figures here includes:

OK, you spotted a dozen of bad guys, but what about other observers? Are they also extreme right or left or pro-Russian or in other way unreliable? If no, well, it's a spotlight fallacy http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Spotlight_fallacy

Lately you've been trotting out one 'fallacy' after another.

@carl I have to. What else can I do to prevent you from throwing one fallaciuos argument after another? Besides, if you'll start reading stuff and getting smarter I'll consider my mission accomplished It's your compatriots, best Western minds wright all that wonderful articles and books about rationality - will you dismiss it just because some anonimous bad guy uses it? I hope you not.

You're seeing zebras. (extra points if you get that reference.)

Nope, I didn't. Could you explain?

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---what argument?---the only one you seem to throw out is the Nazi argument that all of the Ukraine are Nazi's---and yet you refuse to respond to the question on just why you accept Nazi's in the Crimea but when they are in the Ukraine you flip out.

Cut out the sidestep in your double standards comment---it was just sidestepping--you simply did not answer a rather direct question did you not?

Come on man ---get one argument at least correct and do not try to create an argument that really is not one by trying to impress yourself.

1. you still have not stated why you accept Nazi's in the Crimea---strange double standard for a country that claims that it was a "mistreated Russian population at the hands of Ukrainian Nazi's" that triggered this whole problem

2. you use a newspaper article to quote the "mistreatment of Ukrainian Jews" when the article said the opposite and yet you persist in only taking "selected" sentences that you perceive supports your view and YET overlook the entire article---GO back and reread your own article.

3. you claim to be Russian yet know no political sayings that would reflect you even understand your own society and its development or yet grew up in that society---maybe you are just apolitical which does happen these days and is OK

4. you provide a photo that yet anyone could have created--as it is not dated which happens with most digital cameras these days-did you see the leg protection worn by one of the pictured men--- was exactly that worn by the Burkat----you did see that right?

5. for every article you find I can show you an article written by a number of individuals many of whom were Ukrainian Afghanistan veterans stating that there have been over 21 reports of Russian Spetnaz personnel inside the Ukraine---from your own great research you did see those reports correct?

So come on mirhond get real---restate each argument in a coherent fashion, and provide then your evidence tied to each of your so called arguments point by point using 1, then 2, then 3 because right now you are all over the map my friend.

EXAMPLE:---You beat up on Ukrainian neo Nazi's but then when confronted with "evidence" as you call it which some of us would call reality then you shift your response and sidestep---come on mirhond stay with one argument and then counter what you get as a response back otherwise one would call what you are doing as misinformation nothing more nothing less my friend. The sentence that started with "Are they also extreme..... is a great example of how you suddenly change directions when confronted with a counter point to your initial argument.

Is that what they taught you in debate/journalism/military classes?

"OK, you spotted a dozen of bad guys, but what about other observers? Are they also extreme right or left or pro-Russian or in other way unreliable? If no, well, it's a spotlight fallacy".

"Anyway, I'd be grateful if you at least try to falsify my arguments and disprove evidences which I posted here."

[carl]

Mirhond:

It's too soon to give you a grade for today. I'll check back at the end of the day. A hint though, disconnected sentences and open ended rhetorical questions do well in the college lounges.

One thing you are doing well at though is leading the discussion away from what the siloviki state is actually doing and what we should be doing in response. So good on you for that.

No extra points for you if you don't know what seeing zebras means.

[Firn]

@kaur: Only a little snippet about the 'international observer' Fabrizio Bertot, the Italian guy on that all-star list. From Il Quotidiano Piemontese:

Il comune di Rivarolo Canavese stato sciolto per mafia. Il Consiglio dei Ministri ha approvato lo scioglimento del Consiglio comunale del comune, dopo la relazione del ministro dellInterno ai sensi della normativa antimafia. Nei documenti dellinchiesta Minotauro risultava che il sindaco Fabrizio Bertot, candidato alle Europee nel 2009 e alcuni esponenti delle ndrine locali si fossero accordati per raccogliere voti e farlo eleggere. Lo scioglimento di Rivarolo arriva pochi mesi dopo quello disposto dal Viminale per il comune di Leini. La Commissione Antimafia al lavoro anche a proposito del comune di Chivasso per cui ha chiesto una proroga dei tempi di indagine che scadr a luglio.

Basically the dear Fabrizio Bertot, who was major of Rivarolo Canavese worked togheter with local heads of the 'Nrangheta to collect votes for his 2009 campaign to become a deputy of the European parliament. The whole village council with him as major was thrown out in 2012 'per mafia' and put under direct political control. That is a rare feat in Northern Italy were the various 'mafia' clans had difficulties to get themselves established. He is unsurprisingly a party member of our small criminal clown who had regular sex with various underaged prostitutes.

So after having bought votes with the help of the local mob to get himself elected he helped now the local seperatists lead by 'Goblin' an (ex)-criminal to 'observe' an illegal referendum. Maybe he had some tips to give on how to buy votes and likely took some money for his brave efforts...

He might need some money to win the reelection to keep his parliamentary immunity for now. The prefettura has already taken the first steps in the case against him. Let's hope that the Italian justice moves much faster then usual to first deny his entry and then to throw him into the place where he belongs.

Another explanation for his help in the Crimea might be the hope that he gets political asylum in Russia after suffering from the prosecution of fascist bandits in Italia for his heoric efforts for the freedom of Crimea...

[kaur]

Outlaw, that Anaga site says that about UAV-s that during first days of March, US brigade was dispatched to Ukrainian city Kirovograd. From that location UAV's are monitoring Crimea and Russian administrative districts bordering Ukraine.

В первых числах марта бригада была перебазирована в украинский Кировоград, откуда её беспилотники совершают разведывательные полёты над Крымом и над приграничными с Украиной российскими областями.

http://www.anaga.ru/sbit-mq-5b.html

Russians have used this kind of observers also in Abhazia. If someone can read Russian, then here is little overview http://www.apsny.ge/analytics/1315245909.php

About Ukraine 1 more article in Russian http://noborders.org.ua/ru/sfery-dey...ssyjskaya-set/

Last comment in English http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot

[carl]

Mirhond:

Ok, you guys are doing better now. For the last several posts you've had a good English writer doing the posts. That is important on this site. When you guys go over to a college age site the 'I'm a poor speaker of English' bit will get you some sympathy, but not around here. Old guys don't fall for that so easy.

But you are still making some errors more suited to a college age site. For example, you claim to have participated in some demonstrations. Again, college age girls will swoon over that, 'Oh, he's so dreamy.'. But here we figure it's just a barroom brag. We just nod our heads and say 'Yea right.'

Next, mix things up a little. Lately you've been trotting out one 'fallacy' after another. It reads like your lead guy gave your best English writer a list of 'fallacies' to emphasize. Or barring that, 'fallacy' was the last chapter you studied on one of your classes. You're seeing zebras. (extra points if you get that reference.)

So all in all, you are doing a little better. But still not good enough. Remember you have a tradition and reputation to uphold. Here in the West we are conditioned to think of you guys as Moscow Centre, Karla, the guys who ran Kim Philby, the Walker ring and all that. We haven't been associating you with lazy and clumsy. Come on man! You can do better. Vlad and the other siloviki are counting on you!

[kaur]

Art by Moscow artist Budaev.

[Firn]

Firn---in comments yesterday by a former Russian Finance Minister the Russian budget this year was targeting a growth rate of 3.5% and if sanctions are imposed he is saying the growth rate may in fact be 0% and the Crimea costs were not factored in and approved for this year.

Average Russian taxpayer will be carrying the Crimea burden for years to come.

He indicated that there is talk of 80-90M USD per month in just support to keep the Crimea running and the Crimean's felt that with joining Russia their individual salaries would be going to Russian levels (was posted on placards around the cities) which is also not in the budget that was approved so he is estimating an annual cost of 20B USD per year just to do a steady state.

His comment was interesting---the EU understands our economy better than we do.

I can't comment on such details and he certainly knows more about the Russian economy then I will ever do. Still it is important to look at the basics.

Right now the private sector rests on two pillars, tourism and agriculture. The public sector is rather large, partly due to the relative high number of retirees caused by the outflow of the (mostly ethnic Russian) youth and the attractive Crimean (think Florida) status and climate.

With tourism facing a massive demand shock, bar miracles worked by Russian-sponsored incentives and 'patriotic' feelings and agriculture living on Ukrianian goodwill there will be many losers in the private sector. Now the Russian government can most easily (and costly) increase demand by pumping in Rubles by various means. Raises of public salaries and pensions, subventions and public works might be on the table but all that money has to come in from Russia as the Crimea was a net receiver of transfers even before.

Given the poor track record of corruption and bad capital allocation in Russia and the terrible one it those 'frozen regions' I fear that in the long run many of the sky-high expectations of those who voted Russia will land hard. There will be some spillover into the private sector, but I doubt that the productivity will raise anywhere near the 'Russian wages', which should raise labour costs greatly and make some economic activities unattractive. All in all Russia will pay a high direct price for the Crimea and mght still come up short of the expectations of many...
----

Stepping back I think that the 'center of gravity' of the Ukraine is the political willpower of the West, while the one of the Crimea is the economic strenght of Russia...

[davidbfpo]

Moving to the north for a moment, two developments and I use the headline only. Seems to be a "balance" of sorts and a reminder that vigilance works both ways.

Norway’s new Arctic giant spyship

Link:http://barentsobserver.com/en/securi...-spyship-17-03

Moving 3000 intelligence officers to Finnish border

Link:http://barentsobserver.com/en/securi...h-border-14-03

The website has other points of interest.

[kaur]

Does not look good.

Majorities of voters in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine believe there is no candidate running for the presidential election planned for May 25, whom they trust with a vote to represent their interests. With two months still to go, the outcome of the poll is therefore already decided – it will be regarded by southern and eastern Ukrainians as a forced choice; an illegitimate result; and an outcome which cannot be relied on to protect the interests of the southerners and easterners.
According to voter polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, there are still large blocs of undecided voters or refuseniks in the south and east who may be persuaded to vote. The appointments of the steelmill oligarchs, Sergei Taruta and Igor Kolomoisky, as governors of the Donetsk and Dniepropetrovsk regions has been interpreted as an attempt by officials in Kiev to achieve this with cash and promises of job and pension benefits. But new poll evidence suggests that no amount of money can buy votes for the US-approved candidates — Vitali Klitschko, Petro Poroshenko, or Oleg Tyagnibok. The same can be said for the Russian-approved candidacy of Yulia Tymoshenko.

http://johnhelmer.net/?p=10376