Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[jmm99]

The bottom line is Art. 6:

6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.

Those parties have consulted (last Friday) - commitment met.

Another "Agreement" - Art. 4 and Art. 5 of NATO:

Article 4

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

As any rookie contract student should be able to tell you - these are illusory contracts; and were intended to be so from the gitgo.

Regards

Mike

[jcustis]

Good points Mike. Just reality.

[jcustis]

A Ukrainian Army element is escorting a press pool through a Ukraine/Crimea border area and comes across a pro-Russian militia element that has drifted across the border for some unknown reason.

The expected standoff escalates to a firefight, leaving seven militiamen dead and two Ukrainian soldiers wounded. The militia force falls back into Crimea and Ukrainian forces pursue.

A Russian SOF element hears the dustup and vectors to the area. The militiamen make visual and radio contact with the element, and break contact past its hasty position. The SOF unit suppresses the Ukrainian pursuit force, killing several.

In thr confusion, Ukrainian Army sources start reporting that a Russian unit has breached the border to attack a lightly-armed security unit. The entirety of Ukrainian military forces mobilize, with several formations making for the border at breakneck speed.

Russian forces move from high alert and begin occupying key terrain on the border. Cross-border firefights begin to flare up and a rifle company is lifted by heliborne means across the border to seize a road tunnel on the Ukrainian side, thereby cutting off that avenue of approach.

NATO shifts to emergency sessions and places forces on alert, but a consensus on a response is mired in uncertainty and worry. The US places various fighter and bomber squadrons on alert.

President Obama condems the outbreak of fighting and pledges that America will stand with Ukraine against "this blatant aggression."

Five minutes later, Putin addresses Russian TV, looks squarely into the camera and states that friends of Ukraine can only be enemies of Russia.

What happens across the next 24-96 hours?

How does it end?

[carl]

The US, France, Germany and the UK have a combined GDP of about 24 trillion. Russia's is 2 point something. Yet we wring our hands and moan about all the things we can't do when we have twelve times the economic resources. What clowns we are. So sad. Unsuspecting 10 year olds are on a playground right now, ignorant that we are signing their death warrants by our inaction.

[carl]

jcustis:

Nothing would happen. An unspoken premise is wrong in your scenario. No matter what Mr. Obama says, he will not stand by anybody, anytime. He knows it. Everybody knows it.

[JMA]

illusory maybe ... like the US behaving - verbally - as if anyone is still listening?

The bottom line is Art. 6:



Those parties have consulted (last Friday) - commitment met.

Another "Agreement" - Art. 4 and Art. 5 of NATO:



As any rookie contract student should be able to tell you - these are illusory contracts; and were intended to be so from the gitgo.

Regards

Mike