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Thread: Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

  1. #1501
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    As you like but the truth is that the US has never been a physical threat to its neighbors or anyone near on the scale as Germany and Russia were and Russia still is.

    The Russian problem - to be truthful- was the result of leftist/communist inspired support of the Soviets from within the Roosevelt administration at the time. It took the US under Truman too long to counter Soviet influence... the rest is history.

    If one studies the Russian mentality one will realize that it will take a nuclear deterrent - that will be used in time of need - to put the Russians back in their cage... and out of the non-Russian states that currently fall within the Russian Federation.

    The Russians - correctly - are banking on the fact that neither the US nor any in Europe are prepared to act decisively to counter their expansionism.

    JMA---you are as correct as ever and many commenters in this thread and on the other threads have truly failed to understand the Soviet expansionism of Putin's Russia.

    I remember only a couple of days before the elections the West ie EU/NATO/US indicated they would pull the trigger on harder sanctions if Putin interfered with the election---well he did and but was done-nothing because he uttered a few moderate comments and pesto all was well in the West.

    If one fully understands the new Russian doctrine of New Generation Warfare which is really a national level UW strategy tied to irregular warfare which JMA fully understands supporting a political war again something JMA fully understands then one will recognize with this article from today backed up by the video link on the cell phone photos from a dead Chechen fighter and kaur's recent link to 22 May events that the "war" is now over in the Donbas region.

    Would not call the dead Chechen a "weekend warrior" or better the new term "war tourist"---he is plain and simple a paramilitary full time member of a Russian "radical nationalist" irregular fighting group whose leader is a fanatical supporter of Putin and who has close ties to the FSB/GRU.

    AND what is the response from the West with the "none meddling" by Russia in both the election and now in the support for Chechens inside Donbas?

    Nothing is the answer.

    http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...sk-350001.html

    Still curious that mirhond who is quick to respond to comments failed to respond to the dead Chechen's cell photos especially the logo of his Chechen unit. Check the logo of his Chechen unit, check the quality of the Russian plated 4X4s in the garage and quality of arms and equipment-and tell me he is a "weekend warrior".

    http://obozrevatel.com/crime/58036-c...to-i-video.htm

    If mirhond would honestly answer directed questions to himself which he never does but why would he---would enjoy seeing his definition of "Russian fascism".

    Better yet---mirhond here is an easy to read English article concerning "Russian fascism"--do you agree with it or disagree with it---maybe you could simply answer in a yes or no fashion as you definitely will not respond to the article--even to a yes or no question.

    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...te/427504.html

    mirhond---here is another easy to read English article on Russian "fascism".

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadom...ussia-fascist/
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-30-2014 at 09:42 AM.

  2. #1502
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    Carl, with a little time we will learn exactly what happened in the run up to the Russian invasion of Crimea and subsequently. But I remember a few years ago when I criticized the German logic - as espoused and defended by Fuchs - that German dependence on gas imports from Russia did not produce a vulnerability as the Russians were as dependent on the income from the sale of the gas as the Germans were on the gas itself. Boy was he (and the Germans) wrong. it is this sort of strategic incompetence by Germany that has saved the world from a German empire on a scale of the old British one. In the case of the Germans their limitation remains the predominant national characteristic of arrogance while the Brits were defeated in terms of their empire by a knife in their back by their ally the US.

    I personally place no great store in the ability of 'business' to act to the detriment of their commercial greed. Again will probably learn later what the real reasons were for these actions which are likely to be based on commercial considerations.

    Putin is certainly not the smartest guy in the room but he has achieved a well timed victory over a largely 'burnt out' US and a militarily impotent Western Europe (in terms of the annexation of Crimea which it appears he has got away with). However, in so doing he has destroyed any goodwill there may have been among nations that were once under the jack-boot of the Soviets.

    One of my earlier comments was for the US to make it known that they would seriously consider supplying tactical nuclear weapons to Ukraine as a deterrent to further Russian expansionism and to provide a position of strength for Ukraine to negotiate a full and total withdrawal of Russia from Crimea. Now that Ukraine has a democratically elected government this offer should now be made.

    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    I wonder about this. Western govs did fail but maybe not the West. I read an article that argues western business interests, privately directed, stopping doing business and pulling or threatening to pull out of Russia had a very great effect. Those that did did so without direction because after what Putin has done recently the uncertainty of doing business in Russia may not be worth the return. Supposedly this gave Vlad and the boys great pause. Firn would probably know more about it.

    Another thing that in my own uninformed opinion had an effect was the prospect of a really nasty insurgency getting going if regular Russian forces moved into Ukraine other than Crimea. It's one thing to take something easy, like Crimea, but it is another to face the prospect of an insurgency conducted by people who really know how to do it. In that sense the Ukrainians have taken care of themselves.

    Then again the whole thing may start up again in a few months. Jamestown Foundation says the Russkis had to pull their forces back for the moment to demob conscripts and bring new ones in.

    But ultimately your right, they'll nuke up again, or try to. Pakistan and North Korea have proven that if you have nukes and a bad attitude, you can get away with almost anything.

  3. #1503
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Moderator responds

    Readers can judge for themselves the debate on this sometimes controversial thread and in the knowledge there is rarely agreement on what has happened nor what should happen now.

    It is a fact that in eastern Ukraine there is a Russian-speaking minority, which sometimes can be a majority (earlier in this thread are maps showing this IIRC). Ukraine has a history of population movement as a result of wars and borders changing - something I expect they all know today. In the inter-war years and in 1945 there were several examples of voluntary and compulsory population exchanges.

    At the moment there is no credible Ukrainian capability or will to engage in such a transfer. Note there are some reports from the Crimea that Tatars and others wish to exit.

    I have asked JMA to be clearer as to what he is advocating (he later replied via PM).
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-04-2014 at 11:12 PM. Reason: Updated after Mods review
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    Red face What can Latin America do to help in this crisis?

    Should we go for Ukraine or go for Russia ?
    Here in Latin America we do not knowwhat is the real stuff in Ukraine.
    To much pro west or pro Russia.
    Who has the truth?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 05-30-2014 at 05:48 PM. Reason: PM to author with query and response added

  5. #1505
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balcacer View Post
    Should we go for Ukraine or go for Russia ?
    Here in Latin America we do not knowwhat is the real stuff in Ukraine.
    To much pro west or pro Russia.
    Who has the truth?
    One thing I always thought was helpful when judging these things was this: where do people immigrate to and where do they emigrate from? Do the people from the West mostly move to Russia or do Russians mostly move to the West?
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

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    For those that do not believe Russian is in fact involved directly in eastern and southern Ukraine---here is one of their drones which was shot down a couple of days ago in the Donbas region---believe near the airport fighting.

    http://inforesist.org/ukrainian-secu...ussia/?lang=en


    The Russian army is getting supplies of locally produced Unmanned Ariel Vehicles, UAVs. Recent tests show that they are not inferior to similar vehicles made in other countries and even surpass them in several key aspects. A commission consisting of ground force generals watched attentively how experts operate the Russian drones and how they carry out surveillance missions.


    The Russian army is getting supplies of locally produced Unmanned Ariel Vehicles, UAVs. Recent tests show that they are not inferior to similar vehicles made in other countries and even surpass them in several key aspects.

    A commission consisting of ground force generals watched attentively how experts operate the Russian drones and how they carry out surveillance missions. The experts focused on how the UAVs determine the coordinates precisely and how they deliver information.

    Eventually, the Defence Ministry chose several drones. They are the “Orlan” developed by the Special Technological Centre, the “Lastochka” of the “Zala” Company and the “Eleron” of the “Eniks” Company. However, the “Orlan” surpassed its competitors in carrying out missions close to combat conditions, says Roman Ivanov, head of the St. Petersburg-based Special Technological Centre.

    “The use of advanced composite materials in engines and controlling systems has made it possible to achieve unique characteristics,” says Roman Ivanov. “This made it possible to make them ultra-light and consequently, to take sufficient fuel to fly about 15 hours continuously. The average speed of the UAV is 150 kilometers per hour, and the range is up to 600 kilometers,” Roman Ivanov said.

    Russia’s Border Guard Service has shown keen interest in the UAV “Orlan” because it is irreplaceable in monitoring distant targets. The “Orlan” can carry up to ten kilograms of equipment and fly at heights of between 4.5 and 7.0 kilometers.
    Read more: http://voiceofrussia.com/2010/11/12/33725547/
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-30-2014 at 08:37 PM.

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    mirhond---did I miss you not responding to the dead Chechen fighters cell phone photos---check the Chechen BN logo.

    Although based on his commanders' comments he has sent no one to fight in the Ukraine---although it seems like 34 dead Chechens were sent to Russia today and they are admitting there are another 30 or so dead Chechens not recovered near the airport so about 70 got killed.

    But hey mirhond there are no Russians fighting and dying in eastern Ukraine are there---Putin has stated that it is not Russians who are fighting in the Ukraine so I am not sure just where these "war tourists" are coming from or do you know---maybe Right Sector soldiers looking and speaking like Chechens?

    Check the shot down Russia drone link---and there is no Russian involvement in the Ukraine?

    By the way Germany and Russia were once linked via their lines of royalty of their kings---you are not prosing that Putin is a king are you and Merkel a Queen?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-04-2014 at 11:13 PM. Reason: Edited

  8. #1508
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    http://www.dw.de/%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BC%...%B8/a-17673335

    Retired German general offered to send NATO-Russia peacekeepers to Eastern Ukraine. Sounds like good idea.
    Last edited by mirhond; 05-30-2014 at 08:35 PM.
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    mirhond---there is an old European historical saying---wherever the Soviet Army decided to rest it never seems to want to leave---ask the Poles, the Baltics, the Hungarians, and the Czechs.

    Even Putin as a KGB officer in Dresden recruited GDR citizens the Soviets felt were pro Soviet for a "coup" against Honecker in 1989/90 as they felt Honecker was getting to "moderate".

    By placing the two Russian peacekeeping Bdes into eastern Ukraine which by the way were the first Russian troops into the Crimea is NOT a good idea---who says they will ever leave an that is what Putin really wants---- Russia troops in the "New Russia".

    Why do you think the idea is good pray tell?

    What is a good idea is to bring back to the Ukraine those troops who are currently on peacekeeping duty as they are use to using force to take care of road blocks don't you think?

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    Fuchs---just a side comment---is not the eastern elections coupled with Chechen fighters now in eastern Ukraine and their stated desire to join Russia in reality "moving an entire population" from one existing state to another existing state---why is that then viewed as "ethnic cleansing".

    There have been some serious thoughts given to say letting the Donbas "depart" the Ukraine---why the economic cost for both the EU and Ukraine in modernizing the industrial base and the infrastructure is massive.

    Ask the Russians what the costs are now just for the Crimea just to keep it semi stable---even though the cost of food is now 50% more, fuel is only available for a max of two days at any given time, water is short and on and on---check the small comments coming out of the Crimea indicating buyers remorse is sitting in.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-04-2014 at 11:14 PM. Reason: Edited

  11. #1511
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    mirhond---there are no "Russians" in eastern Ukraine---come on guy at least agree Chechens have a Russian passport and at least agree the Vostok BN has worked together with your friends the FSB/GRU.

    http://www.rferl.org/content/vostok-.../25404785.html


    http://inforesist.org/43-corpses-of-...to-18/?lang=en
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-30-2014 at 09:48 PM.

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    Fuchs---I could sum up JMAs comments by the following-- was not the recent statements by Merkel and Obama that if the Russians interfered in the elections and or physically got involved in the eastern Ukraine stage three sanctions would be started.

    1. there was massive interference in the eastern and southern Ukraine to the election process---no response from the EU/US

    2. the Vostok Chechen Bn which is inherently part of the Russian FSB/GRU, is Chechen which means Russian had a total of over 70 killed with the first 34 dead bodies going back to Russia today---still no response by Merkel/EU/US-----check the link below

    http://inforesist.org/43-corpses-of-...to-18/?lang=en

    3. the use of Russian serial numbered MANPADs and anti armor missiles, the use of the Russian AK105s only issued to Russian GRU/SF----and again still no response by Merkel/US/EU

    4. the Russian Border Guard Service is "allowing" a steady flow of Russian irregulars and weapons enter into the Ukraine almost daily---STILL no response from Merkel/Obama and company---check this link

    http://inforesist.org/80-militants-a...ation/?lang=en

    After all of these "none responses" after stating there would be responses leds one to believe WHAT?

    No response will ever be coming and it was all "talk".

    After all can Merkel in fact jump over her FDJ/SED/Russian speaking past to deal with a former "Communist KGB COL" who was based in Dresden and handled the recruitment of agents in the West and who had recruited a number of "GDR citizens who were proSoviet" for a possible KGB GDR coup because they felt Honecker was getting to "moderate" in 1989/90. Even Honecker and Mielke mistrusted Putin and the Dresden KGB center.

    Notice she has been extremely quiet since the 25th.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-04-2014 at 11:14 PM. Reason: Edited

  13. #1513
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    Default Thread Closed

    Since folks seem to be making some less than optimal decisions here, I'm closing this thread for the time being. We will reopen it once we feel there's been enough time for folks to cool down. I'm doing this in preference to handing out infractions, but that's my individual choice. For now.
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  14. #1514
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    Default Moderator's Note

    After a review by the Moderators this thread has been unlocked to enable SWC members to return to the discussion on this continuing crisis.

    This thread has had to be locked before, with disciplinary action taken when SWC rules were breached several times and was locked a few days ago to enable a cooling down period. A number of posts have - again - been deleted and others edited to remove references to the breaches.

    As Kaur has stated (on the Info Ops thread) and is cited now (in part):
    Moderators, I don't understand why you closed the "Ukraine" thread. There is going on war that should be covered by this site. Am I wrong?
    The Moderators repeat we are here to ensure SWC continues to be a useful place for members and readers. The RoE are clear. We are a "broad church" of opinions and viewpoints.
    davidbfpo

  15. #1515
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    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPNyfruTJEw#t=104

    Separatists from Lugansk seized a border guard outpost. Good move to secure supply line from Russia.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/03/wo...iref=allsearch

    Airstrike kills 8 civilians in Lugansk. Mundane stuff of the civil wars, but I'am amazed that even CNN admit it.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  16. #1516
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    Ukraine admits that there are serious problems controlling borders.

    Meanwhile, the situation along Ukraine's border with Russia appeared to be increasingly deteriorating on Thursday. The State Border Service said it had shut down all of its bases in the Luhansk region that weren't on the border because they had become increasingly cut off by separatists who had laid siege to several of them.

    Ukraine has repeatedly accused Russia of allowing fighters and arms to filter across the border to join the separatists in the east, an allegation Russia has denied.

    The border service closed three crossings in Luhansk entirely early on Thursday after they came under heavy fire. The service said it had requested that the government in Kiev consider closing several more checkpoints.

    "It is now extremely difficult to control the state border in some areas," the service said in a statement. "Border guards continue to perform their duties, but the real problem is the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, National Guard and local law-enforcement agencies, which leaves the rear approaches to the state border undefended."
    http://online.wsj.com/articles/russi...ine-1401971825

    Pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine's east have conducted a string of successful attacks on checkpoints in recent days, forcing Ukraine border guards to abandon a 130-kilometer stretch of its border with Russia, former Ukrainian Interior Minister Yury Lutsenko said Thursday on his Facebook page.
    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/501647.html

    One nice article was published this Monday by Russian MP Ponomaryov. He wrote also about Russian hand in Ukraine.

    Hand of Moscow

    Actually, there are a few Russians - according to the "Commander of the forces of DNR" Strelok/Girkin (FSB anti-terrorist officer himself), no more than 10%. Their role is very important. According to the people I trust, FSB was present in Slovyansk. I have not personally seen no currently serving GRU officer, but many militias have service experience there and went through Afghan and Chechnya. According to my sources, military advisers from Russia in the first month of the conflict were regularly seen in Kramatorsk and Artem - where they had communication centre, where they coordinated the action Strelok/Girkin groups. The absolute majority of the forces of protest - that local people with drive, which, in fact, now and killed by bullets Ukrainian Army and National Guard.
    http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/83081

    Russian politician asks question from FSB.

    “Dozens of killed in Ukraine men were transferred back to Chechnya and Kadyrov still claims that they are volunteers and he has NO relation to them. Volunteers, you say? Those who on the 27th of May broke through Ukrainian-Russian border whilst not facing any resistance from the Russian border guards. So, I address the FSB and RIC (Russian Investigative Committee – ed.) where are the opened criminal cases on this fact? If there are no cases, then these are Kadyrov’s Special Forces and servicemen of the MIA of Chechnya. If there are cases then why Bastrikin and Bortnikov (heads of the RIC and FSB respectively – ed.) are quiet,” – wrote Nemtsov.
    http://inforesist.org/nemtsov-asked-...onbas/?lang=en

    Considering above it is funny to read this EU COM raport about common steps for visa free regime between EU-RU.

    http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs..._regime_en.pdf
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by kaur; 06-06-2014 at 10:25 AM.

  17. #1517
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    Last night battle on the Ukraine-RF border. Ukrainians managed to stop this small group.

    http://twower.livejournal.com/1320479.html

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    So after the non-Russian Russian soldiers invading Crimea we had the non-existing Russians in the East, followed by just-Russian 'volunteers' and now only a 'few' Russian FSB and kind controlling and training the partly terroristic speratists.

    Great doc find about the visa regime, kaur. Comedy gold...
    Last edited by Firn; 06-06-2014 at 02:11 PM.
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  19. #1519
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    http://economics.unian.net/transport...ey-kryimu.html

    Oh my gawds, Ukrainian administration is going to close Crimean ports! We are busted! Or may be it's just a side of a bureaucratic reality we live in?

    Great doc find about the visa regime, kaur. Comedy gold...
    @Firn

    Read carefully the title of the cited doc.
    EUROPEAN COMMISSION
    Brussels, 18.12.2013
    COM(2013) 923 final
    someone here lost the sense of time
    Last edited by mirhond; 06-06-2014 at 03:22 PM.
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    Russians tried to explain to COM that they control their border very well, when the report was prepared. Now it seems that they can't. Or they can? Don't want? Why Russians tried to prove that their border guarding system is very good condition?

    MOSCOW, December 6 (RIA Novosti) 2013 – Russia is pushing for a visa-free travel deal to be inked with the European Union as soon as January, but the Western bloc has yet to signal willingness to finalize any agreements and the project may be pushed back another year, a high-ranking Foreign Ministry official said Friday.
    Moscow has made visa-free travel with the EU a foreign-policy priority. However, resistance within the EU towards further visa liberalization remains, due to fears that it could lead to a rise in illegal immigration and crime.
    http://en.ria.ru/russia/20131207/185...n-January.html
    Last edited by kaur; 06-06-2014 at 03:51 PM.

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