In follow-up to earlier posts regarding the situation in East Ukraine, yesterday the Ukrainian army isolated and partially captured a key railroad and road intersection at Debaltsevo. Debaltesvo is 40 clicks east of Donetsk and connects the main highway between Donetsk and Luhansk. It is also the main line of communications for the separatists between Donetsk and the Russian border.The Ukrainians were expected to turn west in order to surround a key advance redoubt at Horlivka (population 300,000). Instead, in a true example of the operational art, they left a small blocking force and sent a mechanized brigade some 20 kilometers south over open country to attack between the towns of Shakhtarsk and Torez, which sit astride the only other remaining east-west highway along the separatist line of communications with Russia. This took the Russians by surprize since all separatist defenses along this line were pointed south towards other Ukrainian forces that are pinned against the Russian border. Yesterday afternoon, the separatist field commander, RGU Lt.Col. Igor Girkin a/k/a Strelkov, reacted decisively. He pulled together a regimental sized counterattacking force (including his "Kalmius" spetzsnaz battalion) from further east at Krasnyi Luch and hurled it towards the Ukrainian penetration. According to Russian sit reps as of last night, the Ukrainians were stopped on the main highway between Shakhtarsk and Torez. Both sides reported losses in tanks and personnel carriers. Apparently, most of the damage was caused by massed rocket artillery from the separatists side and tactical air from the Ukrainian side (the cross-country jaunt obviated the ability of the Ukrainians to bring along much self-propelled arty). From Russian accounts, the Ukrainians were not content to fight it out along the highway between Shakhtarsk and Torez. They sent part of their column cross-country to the southeast in a bold attempt to seize Saur-Mohyla Mountain. Saur-Mohyla was the site of bloody fighting between the Red Army and the Wehrmacht in 1942. A Mount Rushmore sized monument sits atop of the hill. The hill has been in separatist hands for the last month, from where the Russians direct accurate artillery fire against Ukrainian forces that are pinned along the Russian border. As of this afternoon, both sides claim that they control the mountain. Moreover, the Ukrainians are dug in along the outskirts of Shakhtarsk and at a key "T" intersection that leads from the highway south to Saur-Mohyla. If the Ukrainians can withstand counterattacks from both east and west (from Donetsk) in order to (1) interdict communications to Donetsk and if they can (2) capture and hold Saur-Mohyla Mountain, the separatists are cut off and in serious trouble. Given that more than half of the separatists are Russian mercenaries, soldiers of fortune (Serbs, Chechens, Latvians) or young Russian adrenalin junkies looking for their first taste of war, the separatist forces in Donetsk can collapse soon. However, as always in war, not so fast. There are reports of a mechanized force massing at Krasnyi Luch in the east. Video indicates that they all have state-of-the-art Russian vehicles, heavy weapons and a uniform appearance (with all insignia removed). These can only have appeared from inside of Russia. The bold Ukrainian maneuver of two days ago can collapse in the face of a powerful counterattack over the course of the next 2-3 days. Furthermore, while someone in the Ukrainian operational staff understands the importance of avoiding positional war, maintaining tempo and keeping the initiative (perhaps the Chief of the General Staff, Lt.Gen Victor Muzychko), one can only achieve this if you have fresh reserves. The Ukrainian army consists of only 2 tank brigades, 8 mechanized brigades and four airmobile/parachute brigades. At least three have to block other potential invasion routes from Russia and the rest have been fighting non-stop for two months. The Ukrainians may be at the end of their operational rope. Moreover, while greatly improved over the last two months, their combat groups are not experienced enough for the Wehrmacht like flexible operations that the general staff keeps ordering them to execute. Stay tuned. Fascinating and horrible at the same time.