Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn---think the reality of potentially damaging targeted sanctions ie bank lines of credit and specific products are starting to worry the Russian business elite.


Rossnefts' boss is in Japan and at first said sanctions they can live with/not an issue and then about four hours later during an interview basically the nerves came through and he indicated they will be hurt.

Think if comments coming out of DC this morning in Germany that the US is really ready to pull economic triggers regardless of what the US banks think is an encouraging sign that they see specific weak points as well.

Will really be interesting that when the glory/shine wears off for the Crimean's and they see that nothing really has changed and they will see that it has not changed---will they hit the streets as they did in the Maidann?

It has just dawned on the current Crimea leadership late yesterday in a few local comments that now all food etc must come via ships as the land routes are blocked and nothing has been organized---you will start to see shortages in about ten days since the Russian Army did not plan to support 2M people with the day to day basics.

[Firn]

It has just dawned on the current Crimea leadership late yesterday in a few local comments that now all food etc must come via ships as the land routes are blocked and nothing has been organized---you will start to see shortages in about ten days since the Russian Army did not plan to support 2M people with the day to day basics.

If there will be no to little international trade directly with the seperatist territory the capacity of the Russian ports in the area could also be a bottleneck apart from the more obvious Crimean ones.

The gravity model of trade flow plus the very specific trade routes (no bridges to Russia), the (former) status as part of Ukraine and the general European flow of trade, explain why the stuff was moved as before of March 2014. The adjustment costs of almost completely cutting the current net of trade interactions and trying to weave them anew should be pretty impressive and mean no smooth ride for the economy...

This is just on top of the other, almost entirely negative shocks coming after it. I don't know how bad it will be but it seems pretty likely that it will be rather bad.

[davidbfpo]

My visit to the Crimea was a few years ago, but Kerch was then hardly a busy port. In fact I cannot recall on one full day seeing a single ship arrive. The roads from Kerch into the peninsula are of limited capacity, being mainly two-track and slow. If there was a working railway I missed it, the only train we saw was the twice daily service to Kiev and the line into Sevastapol is single track.

[Firn]

My visit to the Crimea was a few years ago, but Kerch was then hardly a busy port. In fact I cannot recall on one full day seeing a single ship arrive. The roads from Kerch into the peninsula are of limited capacity, being mainly two-track and slow. If there was a working railway I missed it, the only train we saw was the twice daily service to Kiev and the line into Sevastapol is single track.

Good to read direct impressions. Sounds like it would be interesting to look a little bit deeper into that matter. Right now I can think of hardly any incentive which would have made the transport of goods from Russia over the Kerch straight more attractive then the trucking through the Ukrainian mainland.

Perhaps in a couple of days I will know more.

[OUTLAW 09]

Off the subject---the Crimea Tartars refused to participate in the elections in the Crimea and yet the Crimea government rep stated it was 30%.

Putin claimed yesterday in his speech that their language/and they themselves would be protected.

One of their top community leaders who was pro Ukrainian "disappeared" two weeks ago and was found dead yesterday with his hands and head taped.

Check this article that came out today from Crimean reporting---now one sees just how Russians control everything--so much in protecting minorities:http://en.ria.ru/world/20140319/1885...-Official.html

MOSCOW, March 18 (RIA Novosti) – Ukraine’s breakaway region of Crimea will ask Tatars to vacate part of the land where they now live in exchange for new territory elsewhere in the region, a top Crimean government official said Tuesday.

Crimean Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Temirgaliyev said in an interview with RIA Novosti on Tuesday the new government in Crimea, where residents voted Sunday to become part of Russia, wants to regularize the land unofficially taken over by Crimean Tatar squatters following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“We have asked the Crimean Tatars to vacate part of their land, which is required for social needs,” Temirgaliyev said. “But we are ready to allocate and legalize many other plots of land to ensure a normal life for the Crimean Tatars,” he said.

Temirgaliyev emphasized that members of the Tatar community could receive senior political positions in the new government, in an apparent move to ease ethnic tensions in the region.

“I think that Crimean Tatars will be well represented in the government and parliament,” he said.

The Crimean Tatars, a historic people of the region, were deported en masse to Central Asia by Soviet leader Joseph Stalin 70 years ago. Although many of them returned in the early 1990s, they were unable to reclaim the land they had possessed before their deportation.

Many Crimean Tatars have taken over unclaimed land as squatters by building houses, farms and mosques. Ukrainian authorities have in the past failed to settle the land disputes.

The Tatars, who make up 15 percent of Crimea’s population, remain amongst the staunchest supporters of the new government in Kiev that ousted President Viktor Yanukovych last month.

Crimea, a largely Russian-speaking autonomous republic within Ukraine, was part of Russia until it was gifted to Ukraine by Soviet leaders in 1954.

Putin signed a decree Monday recognizing Crimea as an independent state, following a referendum Sunday that saw voters on the peninsula overwhelmingly support secession and reunification with Russia.

Nearly 30 percent of Crimean Tatars voted in favor of reunification with Russia at Sunday’s referendum, Temirgaliyev said.