Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---come on guy WHAT Burkat was killed? WHAT shop did the person purchase it in? By the way if one is after true evidence then you leave the date/time on the picture and yes so even now place the GPS location on them---so this particular one had none of the above so it is pure propaganda the core question is why did you use it?

Get real and stop the lousy sidestepping---all of your response have been misinformation nothing more nothing less.

Answer examples to your two comments;

1. Straw Man Fallacy again. Show me the exact quotation where I call all Ukrainian Nazis.

Your used the news article on the mistreatment of Ukrainian Jews---the alluding too is the point you were pushing or was it not?

2. From what premiss you deducted that I accepted "Nazi's in the Crimea"?

Did not see you condemn the neo Nazi observers for even being "invited" by what the "democratic" Crimea ---check my comments below to an American saying that fits this.

mirhond---will now end responding to you as I have learned what I needed to from you and your style of misinformation as it was /is something I had not seen before so it was an interesting learning session.

Secondly, if you continue in these blogs you need to fully understand a few American sayings:

1. "when someone does not respond to a specific comment then in fact that is a response"---you failed to respond to 14 directly focused comments

2. then there is the really old American saying---"Fish or cut bait"

And several others ---3. "popping smoke" or the derivative 4. "tango down"

You need to know and understand these old American sayings.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---really wanted to disengage from your rambling misinformation but this particular use of a video by you goes to the heart of the current KGB/FSB/GRU misinformation campaign against both the Ukraine and the West.

Here is your video link---now tell the readers here WHAT really occurred with the video that you evidently are claiming is the running over of proRussian Ukrainians---ARE you sure you want to stand by that "comment".

upd. Enjoy another video:
Ukrainian BMD rolling over pro-Russian civilians somewhere around Doneztk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3c2e-8ooqk


So during Ukrainian called military exercises a long armored convoy stops and WHO appears out of nowhere---proRussians but one is not so sure from the Russian that they are not really from Russia as they vehicle license plates are not shown--NOW who is doing the filming--definitely not the Army? If my dialects are good they are from Russia as the border is not far from this particular point in the road.

ANYWAY the convoy wants to move on after their stop--- it then depicts at about 0515 into the video Ukrainian soldiers trying to surround the vehicle in order to keep civilians from being hit by the vehicle AND THEN what someone decides to thrown himself on the ground in front of the moving vehicle.

MIRHOND---he threw himself rather gently onto the ground in front of the vehicle and then he was pulled out of the way by the soldiers.

ONE might say he was a agent provocateur for the constantly filming camera. Actually in the US if one did exactly the same thing they would be arrested by the police so what is the problem as I thought Putin was all for the rule of law?

The only thing I would fault the Ukrainian Army on is they do not have ground guides as we are required to have--BUT they did use soldiers to PROTECT the civilians around the vehicle.

COME on mirhond is this the best the KGB/FSB/GRU has to throw on Russian TV for the homefront, Donetsk, and the Crimea?

MAYBE this is why Putin seems to be lying when he says "loyal Russian are being mistreated".

You truly need to get better at your misinformation videos---second rate attempt at grey propaganda.

A TIP for your use of videos turn off the noise and strictly watch the video footage then the true story really becomes apparent which is opposite of what you alluded to-you will understand far more when the voices are filtered out--then try to build you narrative just using the pictures which did not work with this video=== as it did not work with the photo you tried to use previously.

By the way your English has gotten bad again what happen to the previous responder-- his was better than yours.

Have a great week in Moscow----and hang onto to your rubles.

[davidbfpo]

I too have watched Mirhond's post link:

Enjoy another video:
Ukrainian BMD rolling over pro-Russian civilians somewhere around Doneztk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3c2e-8ooqk

My question would be simple. Would the Russian Army tolerate such obstruction, whilst on official movement?

I couldn't follow the language nor the full sequence. The plainclothes official, whose ID card was shown, appeared to be making his point and towards the end soldiers were deployed to get the convoy moving safely.

[mirhond]

2OUTLAW 09

If my dialects are good they are from Russia as the border is not far from this particular point in the road.

Nope, your "dialects" aren't good and you obviously do not know Russian, do you?
Your blatant rejection of everything you don't like is exellent, however.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---wow-- suddenly your English vastly improved---all that KGB/FSB/GRU training paid off did it not?

mirhond---Well formulated English sentences---finally after all the different versions of English we seen---how many were writing the responses as I counted with this one three?

Nope (like the fact you went American in this single word-definitely not Queens English), your "dialects" aren't good and you obviously do not know Russian, do you?
Your blatant rejection of everything you don't like is exellent (a misspell though) , however.


Your attempt to turn a rather mundane routine (a rather common civilian/military encounter during troop movements even in the US and say especially Germany) issue into an anti Ukrainian rant ie " the poor mistreated loyal to the Motherland Russians" need protection from the land of the "hordes" of Ukrainian Nazi's was another blatant disinformation gig was it not?---come on you can admit it.

Noticed you threw in no further photos, "evidence", articles, or disinfomation into this response.

By the way just how did the "poor mistreated loyal Russians wanting protection" know of the convoys whereabouts in time for them to drive to the specific point in the road and have a professional camera team available for an "accidental" filming of the alleged encounter of Ukrainian Russians being mistreated?

My Russian is as good as your English--of course we could shift to German -but I am sure you were not taught German- you allowed yourself to be provoked---not good my friend, not good.

Tango down--popping smoke on this conversation -----was enjoyable exchanging with the three of you.

Again save you rubels/dollars/euors "for the hard days are a'coming".

[mirhond]

My Russian is as good as your English

Really? Prove it.
Докажи, иначе пиздобол и мудак. Напиши хоть фразу по-русски, а лучше целый пост, чтобы побольше сложноподчиненных предложений, условно-нереальных высказываний, хороших метафор и прочего грамматического и синтаксического матана.

Enjoy your beloved Sturmabteilung having some fun in Dnepropetrovsk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...&v=6u-ZFL8uTEE

Back to Ukrainian matters.
Ukrainian National Guard scramble to protect the Gas Transit System, by the order of prime-minister Yatzenuk

http://mvs.gov.ua/mvs/article/100105...medium=twitter

Meanwhile, leader of Right Sector Yarosh (who literally brought Yatzenuk to power) threatens to destroy Gas Transit System
http://www.unn.com.ua/ru/news/131732...o-yde-z-rosiyi

These guys really need to put their $hit together.

@davidbfpo

My question would be simple. Would the Russian Army tolerate such obstruction, whilst on official movement?

I suppose it will not, but I fail to see why it's relevant. I begin to suspect Tu Quoque Fallacy http://www.fallacyfiles.org/tuquoque.html. Don't use it, pretty please, carl and OUTLAW09 are already doing their best
Reasonable question is: Why civilians are so nervous about this on duty movement?

[Rex Brynen]

A quick round up of commercial/hobby wargames on the crisis in the Ukraine (current or fictional): http://paxsims.wordpress.com/2014/03...n-the-ukraine/

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---and just why would I respond to your request to write everything in Russian when 1) this is a English speaking/writing site and that insults other non Russian reading/speaking readers and 2) you have just insulted my writing abilities with your Russian comment and request.

Come on mirhond now you are going into insults is that all you can do? By the way your Russian is far better than your English--not sure your English teachers would be proud of your abilities.

Enjoy the rest of the week---

[mirhond]

@OUTLAW 09

mirhond---and just why would I respond to your request to write everything in Russian when 1) this is a English speaking/writing site and that insults other readers and 2) you have insulted my writing abilities with your Russian comment and request.

1.Nonsence. Wright me a PM then. If no - пошел на х%й.
2. Yeah-yeah, praize Google Translate..
I've insulted you? well, you may cry a little, or even insult me.

[davidbfpo]

Mirhond,

I asked a simple question:

My question would be simple. Would the Russian Army tolerate such obstruction, whilst on official movement?

You replied just:

I suppose it will not, but I fail to see why it's relevant.

Then you referred to an unknown website which gave some guidance on asking questions, which did not help me. Ah well.

The relevance of the short film clip is that in this crisis legitimacy is a prominent issue. That is why you used it to illustrate your point about some in the Ukraine disputing the troop movement and the "running over" of a protester as how harsh the new government was.

If you cannot see the relevance of my question having given us the footage, well that is your problem, not mine.

[mirhond]

Mirhond,

The relevance of the short film clip is that in this crisis legitimacy is a prominent issue. That is why you used it to illustrate your point about some in the Ukraine disputing the troop movement and the "running over" of a protester as how harsh the new government was.
If you cannot see the relevance of my question having given us the footage, well that is your problem, not mine.

OK, stupid me.
Honestly, I dont think that new government has a power to be harsh. Right now Yatzenuk is trying to sweet-talk the South-East

https://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...&v=QvPLnhNJcZs

His major points are:
1. Ukraine is under pressure
2. governance will be decentralised, wide autonomy of regions will be implemented
3. Language law stays the same
4. Political, but not economicall association with EU, to soothe the fears of industrial East
5. Good relations with Russia, no NATO, "Ukraine strong" *countryball needed*
6. Parliamentary-presidential republic based on consensus of regions
7. Yanukovich - traitor and thief. Maidan rebelled against dictatorship and corruption
8. Disarmament of street warriors, they are welcome to National Guard
9. Reconsiliation and reconstruction of the country, patience and calm
10. Diversity of beliefs and values is good, East will not be low-level formatted.

If it is a reall political program, not just bull$hit to by some time - well, Ukraine has a good chance to recover and even prosper in a foreseeable future.

[carl]

Mirhond(s):

Time for your daily grade.

You are still mixing up your writers, going from the bad English writer to the very good English writer. I told you why that doesn't work on this site but you still do it. Point off for you.

You are also sticking to the 'fallacy' game plan that you guys came up with a few days ago. I told you why that doesn't work either but you still do it. Another point off for you. I do have some sympathy for you on that one though. Both the Germans and the Afghans commented on how the Russians would stick to a briefed plan even if was obvious to one and all that is wasn't working. I read of one reporter who was traveling with a Muj Toyota convoy in the 80s and they saw some Russian helos working over a village just a few klicks away. The reporter told the Afghans the helo pilots must be able to see them asked why they didn't attack an obvious Muj supply column. The Afghan replied that yes the Russian pilots did see them but they had been briefed to hit that village and that was what they were going to do no matter how many Muj supply columns they saw. I guess things haven't changed much.

You guys apparently got concerned that people weren't paying as much attention to you as you wanted so you started cluttering up the place with pictures of cats. That shows a lack of patience. A little bit desperate. Another point off for you.

You are sticking with the 'Nazi' slogans, repeated and repeated. That won't work around here, but that's what you were told to do so do it you will. Another point off.

Your primary problem is the same as it has been. You guys aren't adapting your message to your audience. Your approach would work with callow college kids, especially Ivy Leaguers, but the guys here have actually seen and done things, lots more than the college kids. You guys have to tailor you're message to the audience but you can't seem to make the transition. Those Russian helo pilots again I guess. Still, another point off for you.

So not so good in the last day. It is hard I know. The siloviki don't give you minions much to work with but you guys used to be good back in the old days. Geesh your Chekist ancestors used to run a good cover for Stalin of all people. You have to try harder. You're being lazy.

One thing you said though was quite revealing. This

Good idea from the first glance, but in the long run, when virtually all who are already considering to migrate, leave the country, Putin&Co will get society dominated with die-hard supporters. When they finally figure out that their cause is lost, the'll nuke you, and I'am only half unseriuos.

Fascinating. Fascinating in that it is a statement of the primary belief of the siloviki and their servants, the belief in and the genuflection before force, force over all other things. Nothing that surprises this audience of course, but it is surprising that you would be so up front with it.

[jmm99]

... citing a few links that caught my eye last nite and today ...

First, two articles (from yesterday) taking initial looks at "sanctions" (whatever they might end up to be) and Germany; from Spiegal OI, Economic War with Russia: A High Price for German Business:

The EU has imposed new sanctions to prevent Vladimir Putin from further escalating the crisis in Ukraine. Berlin has played a leading role in the punitive actions, despite protests from the German business community. There's no turning back for Merkel.
...
Germany has taken a leadership role in those efforts -- a role that Berlin has sought to claim for itself since the early days of the unrest in Kiev. At the beginning of the year, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier pledged that Germany would become more active in its foreign policy, and the current initiative is one manifestation of that aspiration.

But it is also becoming clear that those ambitions come with a price tag. Despite pressure from many European Union member states and the US, Steinmeier and Chancellor Angela Merkel initially managed to prevent swifter sanctions. They wanted to attempt to resolve the Crimean crisis through talks. The strategy ultimately failed because of Putin's intransigence.
...
In Berlin, all officials can do is guess at just how far Putin might be willing to go. Under the more optimistic assessment, the Russian president might offer a diplomatic olive branch following the annexation of Crimea to prevent a further escalation. However, high-ranking diplomats believe it is just as conceivable that Moscow might attempt to destabilize other regions like the Baltics or the Caucuses by using economic pressure or the presence of strong Russian minorities in countries in those places. It's a scenario for which the West still has no answer.

and from Motley Fool, A Sanctions War Is Bad News for Europe's Energy and Utility Majors:

As tensions between the West and Russia grow over the Crimean dispute, a series of harsh sanctions is expected to be imposed on Russia in the coming weeks. While most of the focus is on Russian government officials, it is also said to include travel bans for the well-connected CEOs of OAO Gazprom (NASDAQOTH: OGZPY) and OAO Rosneft.

Russian MPs aren't taking this lying down, and are threatening retaliatory sanctions against U.S. and European companies. The rest could well be a full-fledged sanction war, with t!t-for-tat sanctions spiralling out of control.
...
The bottom line

Neither BP nor Shell is facing a threat as near the immediacy or import as E.ON, whose very profitability might be at risk if things turn sour. BP's stock is a bargain on paper, with a P/E of around 6.5, though investors should keep a cautious eye on what happens with their Rosneft relations.

Shell's risk is even smaller, and it is well-positioned to take advantage of some other geopolitical situations, though with a price near its 52-week high, caution again is probably warranted, and panic selling on a sanctions war could provide a buying opportunity.

Gazprom remains the biggest bargain of the bunch, and even though it's the primary target of these sanctions, it is ironically in the least danger. Its gas empire is simply irreplaceable to the global economy, and with a P/E around 2 after the recent sell-off, it is just ridiculously cheap.

So, buy Gazprom !

---------------------------------------------------------------
Moving from economics to law ... My comment, when Ashley Deeks first wrote of the Ukraine and IL and she received the "Russian" response, was "So What". In short, IL doesn't matter very much in these cases - and the Cheka law departments do a much better job of agitprop co-ordination than we USAian amateurs might even dream of doing.

One might as well simply go to the bottom tag lines - BLUF (as viewed by the US): legal and legitimate (Panama); illegal but legitimate (Kosovo); illegal and illegitimate (Crimea). But then we have this classic line from Sergei Lavrov: “If Kosovo is a special case, then Crimea is a special case; it’s just equally special.” (Youtube @ 10:00). Lest you think that I think that all of this is a bit farcical - yes, I do.

Our friend Jack Goldsmith from Lawfare appears to be leaning toward my direction, The Precedential Value of the Kosovo Non-Precedent Precedent for Crimea (by Jack Goldsmith, March 17, 2014):

What to make of all this? There are many factual differences between Kosovo and Crimea, but I find it hard to argue that Kosovo is obviously lawful while Crimea is obviously unlawful. By choosing the “illegal and illegitimate” formulation and inviting the comparison to at least the Kosovo intervention, the European bigwigs seem to agree. International law drops out because both actions were illegal, leaving only a fight over “legitimacy,” which is even more in the eye of the beholder than legality.

One might add that the question of independence turns less on the legality or legitimacy of the independence claim, and more on the interests of the nations deciding whether to recognize, which are all that matter in the end.

One might also view these events as further evidence of my (somewhat obvious) claim [JMM: I, never to miss the obvious, agreed with Jack on Syria] that “the precedential value of an action under international law cannot be established at the time of the action, but rather is determined by how the action is interpreted and used in the future.”

Or one might go further and, perhaps after a glance at the U.S. invasion of Panama (to take one of many possible examples), say that precedent (as well as non-precedent and non-precedent precedent) plays no consequential role in the use of force context. [emphasis added by JMM]

Jack's "glance" link is to DocEx's, The Yanukovych Letter: Is Russia in Ukraine Really Becoming the U.S. in Panama? (4 Mar 2014) (snip to another analysis, by Eric Posner, pretty much agreeing with me in its point 2):

There are, of course, arguments that could arguably distinguish Panama from Ukraine that I will leave others to identify. I think in both cases, Eric Posner's succinct two-point analysis on Ukraine is on point: "1. Russia's military intervention in Ukraine violates international law" (as the U.N. General Assembly found the U.S. intervention in Panama did) and "2. No one is going to do anything about it." (As no one did with Panama in 1989).

DocEx is a project by Doug Cox, a law school librarian and former intel officer - which may have what you are looking for in the small wars intel arena.

Enough lunch for now.

Regards

Mike

[OUTLAW 09]

JMA--it has been all about the money===especially the UK which is the home of mega billions in black money from Russian oligarchs.

The US simply because there is no US military left in Europe---

[JMA]

Now I am learning something.

So if you are short of cash or risk losing deposits and don't have troops in the area you can just laugh off the agreement?

JMA--it has been all about the money===especially the UK which is the home of mega billions in black money from Russian oligarchs.

The US simply because there is no US military left in Europe---

[jmm99]

The bottom line is Art. 6:

6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.

Those parties have consulted (last Friday) - commitment met.

Another "Agreement" - Art. 4 and Art. 5 of NATO:

Article 4

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

As any rookie contract student should be able to tell you - these are illusory contracts; and were intended to be so from the gitgo.

Regards

Mike

[jcustis]

Good points Mike. Just reality.

[JMA]

illusory maybe ... like the US behaving - verbally - as if anyone is still listening?

The bottom line is Art. 6:



Those parties have consulted (last Friday) - commitment met.

Another "Agreement" - Art. 4 and Art. 5 of NATO:



As any rookie contract student should be able to tell you - these are illusory contracts; and were intended to be so from the gitgo.

Regards

Mike

[OUTLAW 09]

JMA---basically yes------

When the US decision makers in the last ten or so years decided to go to soft power ie diplomacy and away from military force they forgot that at times unless you are really super serious about economic warfare as a middle option in soft power then you are in a serious jam when you get called out as has Putin done.

At the beginning of this Germany pushed for talking and the none use of the military threat out of fear of it escalating---which in the end failed and it has escalated.

So now what do you have left to impress anyone with?

There is a possibility mentioned last night by a Russian businessman that if in fact the western banks limited and or shortened the lines of credit that the Russian companies literally live on then in a rather short fashion their economy would come to a stand still---right now Russian companies must service existing western bank debt due in April of over 206B and they are struggling to keep from declaring bankruptcy.

The Russia economy is struggling and may in fact have zero growth this year and is in a deep recession and it would not take much to tilt it over the edge and for all the bluster coming out of Moscow---they indeed know that.

But is the West truly willing to stand up for what they signed---really do not think so---this reminds of the slide into 1914 or even worse the "fake war" in 1939 when the UK/France had signed agreements defending Poland and what did they initially do?

I have talking about the failure of this concept of soft power over on the other side from the very beginning of this and called it exactly has it has happened.

[Stan]

Now I am learning something.

So if you are short of cash or risk losing deposits and don't have troops in the area you can just laugh off the agreement?

Hey Mark !

I wished it could sound better than you just put it, but the reality is just like you put it (well, almost).

Funding is driven by State and used by every Tom, Dick and Harry. We, the military can ask and justify all we want. But, no cash, no troops, no deal.

Reality (see link above).

Regards, Stan