Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[carl]

Mike:

Ok, now that you got that off your chest.

One of these days we may have to do that, directly confront Russia; Poland after all is right next to Ukraine. To my mind, the best way to make sure that day does not come is to directly confront them economically now, if they don't go into the rest of Ukraine; and if they do contribute indirectly to the UW jamboree.

[Firn]

@jcustis: It seems that most politicians, also stuck in the 'proper' procedures, apart from Putin just could not believe that he was pulling this off. Then again a month ago Putin himself did likely not think that he would and could.

The demand of 'travel documents' and later visas for Russian citiziens seems to be mostly motivated by the experience with Russian provocateurs and infiltrators. Russia seems ready to respond in kind, with a couple of consequences:

a) Economic problems mostly for some Eastern oblasts with strong trade ties and trans-border commuters. The Russian oblasts nearby will also suffer, but likely considerably less so.

b) Another impuls pushing the two nations apart. The occupation of the Crimea and the increasingly strong integration into Europe proper are of course bigger factors.

c) Tourims in the Crimea should get hit even harder as those 70% percent will have even less incentives to go there.

Of course Putin might still invade some eastern oblasts, extemp the Crimea from travel restrictions and so forth but I think those points are rather probable.

The pretty likely exit from the CIS, the probable increase of the Crimean pensions on Russian levels are all interesting topics which will have to wait.

[JMA]

With Russia, as With China, Unnerved U.S. Allies Seek Reassurances

Of course China is watching developments in Ukraine closely. When will they move on their territorial claims in the South and East China Seas?

Weakness will be exploited.