Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

**davidbfpo** · 02-22-2014

At last a clear concise expert explanation what is going on in the Ukraine, by Anne Applebaum:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ole-story.html

Even so it is easy to see that events in Kiev have moved at a pace which may invalidate her explanation.

There is much more to what has and is happening in the Ukraine, far beyond the scenes in the centre of Kiev. A truly corrupt state, which was starting to split not so much geographically as institutionally - most clearly shown by the police refusing national orders - and the reports of a mass protest in Kharkov against the government.

**JMA** · 02-22-2014

Tomorrow - 23 Feb - the Sochi Olympics end then Russia will be free to enter the fray... openly.

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

At last a clear concise expert explanation what is going on in the Ukraine, by Anne Applebaum:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ole-story.html

Even so it is easy to see that events in Kiev have moved at a pace which may invalidate her explanation.

There is much more to what has and is happening in the Ukraine, far beyond the scenes in the centre of Kiev. A truly corrupt state, which was starting to split not so much geographically as institutionally - most clearly shown by the police refusing national orders - and the reports of a mass protest in Kharkov against the government.

**Firn** · 02-23-2014

The events of the last days showed once again how difficult it is to make political predictions, especially about the future. I wrote about a president backed into a small corner and (rightly) afraid to lose his power, but I did not imagine that he was so afraid that he would decide to flee out of the country...

It was much easier to anticipate the luxury and wealth in which he lived, as he and mostly eastern oligarchs have plundered the state and the people, but the ship in the artificial lake was still a surprise. As well as the pheasants I should add.

It is difficult to understand what drove him into the political exile but losing control of most of the country, the refusal of a large part of the military and the more then doubtful loyality of the security forces seem to have been the most important elements. Who knows.

Overall it would be disgraceful if the EU, IMF and USA would miss once again a chance to support the Ukraine in it's difficult task to become a working democracy. Russia under Puntin is clearly only interested in keeping it in it's orbit. There is no doubt that in the mid to long run an Ukraine better integrated into the Western economic and political system will result in a higher standard of living for most citiziens.

The huge advantage of the Western world is it's vast financial strenght (yes, despite crisis and all). It would be amazingly stupid and possibly costly to be once again stingy. A 30 billion credit line feels like a good deal, most from the EU, maybe some of the USA and the IMF. Braking the monopolies of the oligarchs would be a good string to attach, cutting the subventions for gas a stupid one, talk about own goal. If this goes against the IMF rules, the EU should step up quickly. Raising 30 billions over a couple of years should cost the EU as a whole, even if we include some write-off, only a couple of billions at the most, perhaps at most some 10 € per capita*. The sucess is of course not secure but it should greatly increase the chances to move the Ukraine in the right direction for the good of it's citiziens.

Even 5 billons are pretty cheap for a good chance to greatly increase the political and economic stability of a rather large European country and to greatly reduce the Russian influence on it if you think how much money, possibly 100+ billion, was thrown by European nations into that far away dustbin called Afghanistan.

**TheCurmudgeon** · 02-23-2014

We may have a break in the drama but there is still far to go before the end of this crisis.

Throughout the crisis in Ukraine, experts real and imagined have persistently invoked the country's vaunted East-West "divide." According to this interpretation, Ukraine is neatly divided into two homogeneous, coherent, and irreconcilable blocs. The implicit message is that partition is inevitable and desirable. As Viktor Yanukovych fled Kiev for the pro-Russian and "separatist" Kharkiv on Feb. 22, analysts feared he would ignite a civil war between Ukraine's irreconcilable factions. But as is often the case with such binary oppositions, they conceal and obfuscate more than they reveal and clarify, creating a simplistic image of a complex condition.

On a separate note, compare the Ukraine to Syria. Here the sides are clearly defined and the idea of devolving into civil war is still something that is feared by all sides (even though it is still a real possibility). The nature of the culture as well as the political systems is different enough to potentially keep that from happening.

**Firn** · 02-23-2014

I think the article does a good job at pointing out the factors which unite the country instead those, often stressed recently, which divide it. As I wrote before nobody can predict the future, but there is a good chances that Ukraine might follow the path most other countries to the north and west already undertook with good sucess. It won't be an easy ride as the road is very bumpy. Helping the financially starved, economically weak and politically fragile state properly should increase it's odds greatly.

I just hope that the EU does not make the error of comitting too little and to be too weak against a relatively weak Russia which overplayed it's hand. An EU membership is obviously far far away but why should the Ukraine, an doubtlessy European nation be automatically excluded? Because a large percentage of it's citiziens speak Russian?* Because the current Russian strongman wants to keep it under his thumb?

*It would of course not be the first one.

**Firn** · 02-24-2014

Ukraine bonds rally, the financial markets so far like the progress from armed clashes on Maiden to the hunt for Yanukovych. The talk about big international financial aid might have played a very minor role too.

Ukraine has $17 billion of liabilities coming due, excluding interest, through the end of 2015, including $1 billion of bonds maturing in June this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price on notes due in four months rose to 97.31 cents on the dollar today from as low as 91.438 cents last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Pretty impressive stuff. Now the financial markets are not efficient but tend strongly to be so.