Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[davidbfpo]

Prof. Schindler has tweeted a Russian platoon has conducted a helicopter landing near a natural gas extraction on one the narrow isthmus between the Crimea and the mainland, at Strilkove - in Ukrainian territory from Google Maps.

Location follow:https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=Str...ed=0CAkQ_AUoAQ

Update via Reuters incursion defeated:http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2014/...l.html?hp&_r=0

Official Ukrainian protest, which does not make it clear if incursion was defeated:http://mfa.gov.ua/en/press-center/ne...nsykij-oblasti

[davidbfpo]

Professor Christopher Clark, author of 'The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914', adds a commentary and a reminder that much of what is happening today has done so before:http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-958692.html

He ends:

The Ukrainian emergency is a reminder of how quickly events can undo the best-laid plans and produce unforeseen constellations. But all the key players in this drama appear to have grasped one thing: namely that the answers history gives to the questions of the present are multiple and conditional, not singular and absolute.

[davidbfpo]

Over a week ago I posted this (Post 339), edited down:

Prof. Schindler has tweeted a Russian platoon has conducted a helicopter landing near a natural gas extraction on one the narrow isthmus between the Crimea and the mainland, at Strilkove - in Ukrainian territory from Google Maps.

Thanks to a "lurker" familiar with the region CNOC owns and operates with its own national staff this facility. CNOC? Chinese National Oil Company, sometimes known as CNOOC - adding Overseas. I cannot readily confirm this, but they know the region from regular, long stays and investments.

Perhaps the Chinese aspect explains the rapid Russian exit?

Some 2011 background on the gas field:

Ukraine's state-run JSC Chornomornaftogaz has tripled daily production at the Strilkove gas field, to 30,000 cubic meters of gas, the company's press service has reported.

Link:http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/chor...sea-shelf-3062

This Ukrainian company was based @ Simferopol, owing US$1 billion to its Ukrainian parent company (in February 2014) and was nationalised by the new Crimean state and then the PM announced:

the new owner of the company would be Gazprom

See Wiki:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chornomornaftogaz and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naftogaz

[JMA]

Michael Gerson writes for the Washinton Post and his paragraph on Ukraine hits the nail on the head.

In the early 1990s, Ukraine briefly possessed the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal, including about 1,900 strategic weapons, an inheritance from the Soviet crackup. In exchange for security assurances — specifically, a Russian promise to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine” — the Ukrainian government turned over all its nuclear weapons to Russia in 1996. The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances is now a muddy scrap of paper stuck to Vladimir Putin’s boot. According to a Ukrainian legislator, there is now a “strong sentiment” in what remains of his country that this denuclearization was “a big mistake.”

[davidbfpo]

From a "lurker" familiar with the region banks in the Ukraine are restricting bank withdrawals to the local equivalent of US$150, apparently the banks explain the government considers itself at "war".

They also mention that there is a distinct gap educationally between eastern and western Ukraine - with the majority Russian-speaking east being better educated. This was explained by the different local demand for education, the east being far more industrialized and since 1990 looking to export. The Ukraine is a major arms supplier, in the top five and in the city of Kharkov the state-owned tank factory remains the leading employer.

Has anyone noted what the Austrian stance is on this crisis, in particular on economic sanctions? Since 1990 Austrian investors have made significant investments in eastern Ukraine, accumulating local political influence in some cities.

[OUTLAW 09]

In all of the discussions one has tended to forget that the Russian Army is now fully armed, manned and supplied in two Divisions worth and is still sitting where in theory "they are just conducting field training".

All the while both Putin and his Defense Ministry are claiming they are not "interested" in the Ukraine and or Moldavia and are not a threat to anyone. It was initially Putin who also stated that he had no interest in the Crimea and then moved one week later

If that were the case then has anyone heard the Russians indicate that the exercise is over and the troops are back in their barracks?

This is any interesting link that says if they go it is now to the mid May timeframe.

Again since Putin seems to think that the sanctions were just a slap on the wrist then he might have a go following the motto we have survived the first round better to get it over and then bunker in.

Interesting that the two German former Chancellors Schmidt and Schroeder seem to be fully supportive of Putin's move and blame basically the West---surprises me about Schmidt. Can understand Schroeder as he made personally a ton of money for himself with the South Stream pipeline.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...ity_in_ukraine

[Firn]

@davidbfpo: The Austrians have been perhaps the most dovish from what I have seen. It is no surprise that the Firtash was arrested in Austria, this 'neutral' country has deeper economic and political ties with Russia then it's size might suggest. High living standards, calm political waters, a central location and formerly a strong privacy for your money even if you weren't a resident. A Switzerland light within the EU form that point of view.

Is the 150$ limit enforced in unoccupied Ukraine? It wouldn't surprise me considering this graph:



A limit dampens the demand peaks and the currency fall

[Fuchs]

@davidbfpo: The Austrians have been perhaps the most dovish from what I have seen. It is no surprise that the Firtash was arrested in Austria, this 'neutral' country has deeper economic and political ties with Russia then it's size might suggest. High living standards, calm political waters, a central location and formerly a strong privacy for your money even if you weren't a resident. A Switzerland light within the EU form that point of view.

That's not the reason.

Austria had elevated close economic ties with Eastern Europe to a kind of Grand Strategy. Its corporations were buying companies in Eastern Europe and operate them as subsidiaries. Its banks emphasized business with Eastern Europe very much.
Germany was busy with reunification - Austria was busy building relationships with Eastern Europe.
It's just not common knowledge because Austria is small, it was never a topic on the consumer brand level (more about financial markets and component suppliers), and whenever something goes wrong Austrians succeed to blame it on Germany anyway.

[Ulenspiegel]

That's not the reason.

It's just not common knowledge because Austria is small, it was never a topic on the consumer brand level (more about financial markets and component suppliers), and whenever something goes wrong Austrians succeed to blame it on Germany anyway.

This was true before 2009, but now it is hard to find an anti-German headline in a Austrian newspaper, the last four years were boring. :-)

[Firn]

That's not the reason.

Germany was busy with reunification - Austria was busy building relationships with Eastern Europe.

It's just not common knowledge because Austria is small, it was never a topic on the consumer brand level (more about financial markets and component suppliers), and whenever something goes wrong Austrians succeed to blame it on Germany anyway.

Those are good reasons, but the high Austrian investments in the East are of course an important topic which gave them a big economic boost as we discussed before, even in this thread I think. I was close to link to the Annual Report of Raiffeisen Bank International, the Austrian stock which suffered perhaps the most in recent weeks, but didn't want to go too deeply. Page 14 shows the number of costumers, note especially Russia and Ukraine...

Of course this drive to the (South)East didn't always go well, especially if you worked on both ends with the wrong guys.

[Firn]

In all of the discussions one has tended to forget that the Russian Army is now fully armed, manned and supplied in two Divisions worth and is still sitting where in theory "they are just conducting field training".

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...ity_in_ukraine

That's a timely article, it is just so ostfrontesque to read stuff like:

The winter ... was mild with little snow, while the spring is early and warm. The soil is drying rapidly, meaning that it will soon be possible to move heavy vehicles off of highways and into fields in southern areas of Ukraine close to the Black and Azov Seas.

In any case the Ukrainians should not listen to the words of Putin but prepare for his potential deeds....

[davidbfpo]

Professor John Schindler has two short commentaries. The first is contemporary and ends with:

The West will prevail in this Cold War too because Putin’s corruption-laden model for Russia is unsustainable in the long run. In terms of population and per capita GDP, Russia is more or less Mexico with nuclear weapons. We are not headed for a bipolar world again, but a multipolar one where Russia can be a dangerous spoiler. But NATO, with American leadership, needs to wake up. This time we must ensure that Russians are well aware that they lost—so they will come to terms with the Kremlin’s crimes, including against its own people, over the last hundred years. That alone will ensure this dreadful cycle does not repeat itself yet again.

Link:http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...#ixzz2x5DC9SNx

The second uses history to remind us that states motives can include the unfashionable, except as he points out to the Poles and I'd wager a few others too. This ends with:

How Ukraine responds to this aggression will determine not just the next weeks and months, but how much Ukrainians in decades to come think their country is worth saving and recreating in the aftermath of war and occupation. Honor matters more here than dry theories of international relations or theoretical appeals to human rights. There are some things worth dying for. If you don’t think your country’s existence is one of them, you probably won’t have a country for long, at least if you live next to Russia.

Link:http://20committee.com/2014/03/25/ho...kraine-crisis/

[OUTLAW 09]

David---both good reads---the Professor is right about the failure of the Russian model---the Russian population just does see it yet as they have historically been taught since WW2 just to survive and be happy in surviving.

Some day there will be a great research book done on the Russian mob which has long supplanted the Italian mob in power/reach and the interaction between the mob and Russian oligarchs.