Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[TheCurmudgeon]

Is the the begning of a seperatist movement or the dying gasps of a failed regime?

Masked men with guns seized government buildings in the capital of Ukraine’s Crimea region on Thursday, barricading themselves inside and raising the Russian flag after mysterious overnight raids that appeared to be the work of militant Russian nationalists who want this volatile Black Sea region ruled from Moscow.

Police officers sealed off access to the buildings but said that they had no idea who was behind the assault, which sharply escalated tensions in a region that serves as home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and also to a number of radical pro-Russia groups that have appealed to Moscow to protect them from the new interim government in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital.

Adding to the confusion, Viktor F. Yanukovych, the ousted president of Ukraine, declared on Thursday that he remained the country’s lawful leader and appealed to Russia to “secure my personal safety from the actions of extremists.” Russian news agencies reported that he had already arrived in Russia, but officials did not immediately confirm that.

[davidbfpo]

A couple of historical snippets on the situation in the Crimea before today. I spent a week there twelve years ago; a brilliant place for a holiday I digress.

The population of Sevastopol, the biggest city, had then shrunk by a third; after Ukrainian independence and many ethnic, young Russians returning to the "motherland" to pursue employment. A disproportionate number of the population were already retired, on meager Soviet-era pensions (including ex-military) or faced retirement.

The Black Sea fleet had dispensed with nearly all its old vessels, especially submarines, but shared the harbour with the Ukrainian navy. The Russian army still had some facilities, including historical WW2 sites and near Simferopol, the capital, there was a large Russian air force base with TU22 Blinders and Mig-25/27 fighters. The civil airport @ Simferopol shared it with the Russian Air Force. On the approaches to Sevastapol the single track railway bridges all had Russian Army guards and a plethora of active radar & SAM sites.

The Crimean Tartars IIRC were deported after 1944, ostensibly as they sided with the Germans and were not returned home till after Stalin's death. That is not something you forget as a community.

[Firn]

Your impression certainly fits what I glanced form the Crimean maps:

Demographic trends

The population of the Crimean Peninsula has been consistently falling at a rate of 0.4% per year.[56] This is particularly apparent in both the Russian and Ukrainian ethnic populations, whose growth rate has been falling at the rate of 0.6% and 0.12% annually respectively. In comparison, the ethnic Crimean Tatar population has been growing at the rate of 0.9% per annum.[57]

The growing trend in the Crimean Tatar population has been explained by the continuing repatriation of Crimean Tatars mainly from Uzbekistan.

It is pretty likely that since the 2001 census the proportion of Russian speakers has decreased a couple of percentage points. I also got the impression that the pro-Russian demostrators were generally quite a bit older then the ones in Kviev or the Tartars.

As I stated before nobody knows what the future will bring but I can not imagine that Putin does really want to cut so deeply into Russian flesh that he orders more then limited military provocations. And yes, provoking they do.

They are indeed looking uniform and modernly equipped, it would be very surprising if they aren't regular members of the Russian armed forces. Controlling the two big Crimean airports will obviously allow the air transport in and out. Such behaviour can of course not be tollerated in the long run by the Ukraine.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Russia admits that it has moved troops in Ukraine

Russia has finally confirmed that it has moved troops into Ukraine's restive Crimea region, after speculation about Moscow's involvement -

Russian troops have moved into Crimea in what Moscow is calling a mission to “protect Black Sea Fleet’s positions” but which the Ukrainian government has denounced as an “armed intervention.” The Russian foreign ministry said Friday that it had informed the Ukrainian government that armoured units from the Black Sea Fleet base near Sevastopol had entered Crimea in order to protect fleet positions.

Somewhat dated, but an interesting paper none-the-less.

Russian Military Capabilities: "Great Power" ambitions and reality

[JMA]

Somewhat dated, but an interesting paper none-the-less.

Russian Military Capabilities: "Great Power" ambitions and reality

Are some deliberately missing something here?

Before the Russians moved troops into Crimea they were told:

US Warns Russia Against Ukraine Intervention

How should this be interpreted?

Russia flips Obama and Obama blinks...

[carl]

Are some deliberately missing something here?

Before the Russians moved troops into Crimea they were told:

US Warns Russia Against Ukraine Intervention

How should this be interpreted?

Russia flips Obama and Obama blinks...

Nobody takes anything that guy says seriously for even a moment. They can do as they please and we will do nothing. Hopefully the rest of the world will be slow on the pickup because we still have three years of him to go.

[Firn]

The guardian offers as usual well organized live-blogging with good summaries.

It contains also a link to the presentation of the new Russian uniforms to be fielded in 2014. I'm certain that the local Russian-Non-Russian paramilitary forces of the Crimea got the first pick. Or maybe they stumbled across them in an old warehouse, along with pretty modern locking small arms. Happily the equipment was in complete sets and so everybody could uniformly drive away in the military vehicles which happened to be there as well.

[Dayuhan]

Are some deliberately missing something here?

Before the Russians moved troops into Crimea they were told:

US Warns Russia Against Ukraine Intervention

How should this be interpreted?

Russia flips Obama and Obama blinks...

It would certainly be unwise (though not atypical) to issue warnings or declare "red lines" in a situation where the US is clearly not prepared to intervene. If you actually read the article, though, it seems mostly a case of bad headline writing: the National Security Adviser's statement is neither warning nor threat, and should not have been described as such.

Can't imagine what anyone would want or expect the US to do about it in any event.

[Firn]

Another report from the BBC.

From the scene
Oleg Boldyrev BBC Russian, Simferopol

Passengers at the main airport in Simferopol were waiting for their flight to Istanbul when they were told airspace over the city was closed and the flight would not leave until the next morning at the earliest.

Some considered making the 500km (310-mile) trip to the nearest international airport, in Odessa.

Meanwhile, the airport car park was still being patrolled by heavily-armed soldiers in uniforms that gave no indication of where they were from.

News from elsewhere was no less alarming. The main television station was taken over by armed men who said they were from Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

Reports came in that fibre optic lines connecting Crimea to the rest of Ukraine were either blocked or damaged.

If the mobile or internet connection goes down, it will be the most palpable indication yet of an emergency situation for the local people.

Let us step back for a moment and look at the big picture:

1. There is no doubt that Russian forces are invading Ukraine.

2. There have been no deaths in this armed conflict only because Ukrainian forces did not oppose them by military means.

3. So far the invasion seems to be limited to the Crimea, into which troops have been airlifted and maybe shipped.

So what are the political goals of Russia? The occuption and de-facto annexion of the Crimea, where Russian speakers have a slight majority under demographic pressure? Or more? How do those political objectives clash?

Lots of questions for the other sides as well: How and when will the new Ukrainian government react? How can we have proper Ukrainian elections if they can't be held in the whole country?


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Personally I think while Russia has shown known strenghts it has also greatly weakened it's influence on the Ukraine and lost any soft gains from Sotchi within days. The Russian invasion is so far limited to the Crimea, where it will possibly 'justified' by a popular vote for autonomy or-so, which hardly anybody can take seriously considering the circumstances. This invasion is likely a considerable hit for many moderate 'Russian-friendly' voters within the Ukraine, keep in mind that many ethnic Ukrainians actually voted for disposed president in exile. Now after the bloodshed in Kviev and the Russian invasion of the Crimea a good deal of sympathy will be gone and the votes of the ethnic Russians will hardly be enough in a national election, especially if the ones from the Crimea can not be collected.

I read a nice, in-depth article in the German FAZ which asked good questions to different people. I tend to agree with the Andrej that it is unclear that even within the ethnic Russian there is a majority for a long-term Russian occupation. It is of course a fluid affair but so far the most likely aggressive action by Russia is to repeat what they did in Georgia. It of course only one path of action and much depends on the Ukrainian reaction. We will see.

[JMA]

It would certainly be unwise (though not atypical) to issue warnings or declare "red lines" in a situation where the US is clearly not prepared to intervene.

Absolutely.

One qould have thought Obama would have learned his lesson from Syria (about red-lines) but it seems he is not smart enough.

If you actually read the article, though, it seems mostly a case of bad headline writing: the National Security Adviser's statement is neither warning nor threat, and should not have been described as such.

Can't imagine what anyone would want or expect the US to do about it in any event.

You are applying your normal pathetic spin - you obviously can't help yourself.

Obviously Obama is not warning of the possible use of force. Only that "there will be costs".

Do you think Putin is quaking in his boots over this? Perhaps hysterical laughter?