Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Ulenspiegel]

There are the Europeans, writ large. They are sort of a theoretical concept, easy to turn your back on, those greedy selfish ingrates.

Then there are the Poles, the Czechs, the Ukrainians, the Estonians etc. Those are actual people who do need our help, the Ukrainians, now-and may need our help, now too (I was going to say later but no, now is better), everybody else. It is harder to turn a back to them, "Sorry Stash, the Russians ain't as bad as you remember."

The first step of an useful strategic analysis should be to sort the facts:

1) We have Ukraine.

2) We have the other countries like Poland, Czech Republic, Estonia...

The crucial difference between 1 and 2 is that the latter are in TWO organisations with mutual (military) assistence as part of the deal.

In contrast, the Ukraine is member of none. Therefore, to combine in an argument 1+2 does not pass a simple smell test.

In case of Ukraine, considering the economic reality with clear advantages on the western side, a low level economic war is the best we could do.

It is a kind of strategic hyperventilation when the events in Ukraine are sold as the equivalent of the occupation of parts of a NATO or EU member.

[Firn]

The first step of an useful strategic analysis should be to sort the facts:

1) We have Ukraine.

2) We have the other countries like Poland, Czech Republic, Estonia...

The crucial difference between 1 and 2 is that the latter are in TWO organisations with mutual (military) assistence as part of the deal.

In contrast, the Ukraine is member of none. Therefore, to combine in an argument 1+2 does not pass a simple smell test.

Indeed it is just a non-aligned country which has been invaded by Russia, not a NATO or EU country. Sadly from an Ukrainian perspective it seems to be a difference between day and night.

From an European perspective (far) harder economic sanctions, supported by harsher US policies will be effective at inflicting great harm on the Russian economy. Needless to repeat that it's depth and width will mostly depend on the quality, quantity and timelenght of those Western actions.

Inside the EU those who wanted to give Russia chance after chance to de-escalate should be under greatly increased pressure after the latest Russian attacks. We will see what comes out of the latest internal talks.

Europe Stockpiles Gas Against Potential Russian Supply Cut

Ukraine has stopped to pay for obvious reasons for Russian gas. We will see how well and for how long it can be supplied from the West.

P.S: Every major European power has attacked other countries in the last three hundred years to achieve it's political goals so one can hardly single out Germany or Russia. The key difference IMHO between recent Western actions and Russias is that the latter is waging a war of conquest with the goal to annex territory.

[OUTLAW 09]

An interesting article on the fact that NATO should be building a monument for Putin.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...in/498022.html