Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[jmm99]

Point 3 ties in with Point 2 - they both have to do with EU-NATO capabilities and will to use those capabilities. Assuming (without any evidence I can present right now) that there is a coalition of the "able and willing", from the Baltic to the Black Sea, how far are they ready to go militarily ?

That's a strategic question - recall from Luttwak's Strategy the Cold War contradictions between what the Germans wanted and the US wanted. That was in many ways a US show. If one thinks that is still the case with 2014 Ukraine, one should disabuse oneself of that notion.

Going from that position on Point 2 (EU-NATO on board for military action, or a material part of it - say, your Eastern States) to Point 3, we do unto them as they have done to us in the recent past - Iraq and Afghanistan seem good precedents to me.

BUT, LET ME MAKE THIS CRYSTAL - the US would be a secondary player; and absent material European participation (on far higher levels than US), the US would not play in any military scenario. Not even one JSOC operator.

Regards

Mike

PS: From my "Calls to escalate" link:

At a small lunch held a few days before the first phase of sanctions was imposed on Monday, one EU ambassador cautioned against moving too quickly or aggressively on Moscow.

"We don't want to end up on an escalator where we don't know where it's going," he said, arguing that once you take the first step on sanctions, there are immediate calls for more substantial measures to increase the pressure.

"What do you do when sanctions run out?" he asked, leaving hanging the inference that the EU does not want - and could not afford - a more physical confrontation with Russia.

In the end, the ambassador's country joined the rest in unanimously agreeing the measures which were less tough than sanctions imposed by the United States.

"We have done what we said we could do, but, yes, the U.S. is from Mars, we are from Venus," said Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who wanted at least four more names on the EU list but was rebuffed by other member states.

"I would suggest that we are not overly enthusiastic when it comes to introducing sanctions, because we will pay for it."

If the Poles think we are from Mars and they from Venus, an "able and willing" military Eastern Coalition seems doubtful. Hell, yes, they'd all want US divisions (not just brigades, mind), so long as the US could guarantee there'd be no damages to their countries from war, etc., etc.