Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Fuchs]

The vote itself was surprisingly clear, giving Poroshenko a decisive wing. Not much chances for Moscow in the medium term to get a friendly Ukraine into it's orbit.

What he lost is the prospect of a Moscow-friendly government in Kiev.

I think Putin gave this up when he decided to take the Crimea and its voters. Maybe he already did so at the moment when Yakunovich fled, knowing that Y. was 100% corrupt and had discredited his political wing (= demotivated many of its voters) for many years to come.