Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[kaur]

Last June there was roundtable in Nezavisimoje Vojennoje Obozrenije office, where colonel in reserve Igor Strelkov (the FSB guy now in Eastern Ukraine. Sitting by general Balujevski) explained how to fight terrorism in Russia. First you have to kill the leaders of terrorist, destroy their bases outside war theatre and close your borders for resupply. How Ukrainians should follow this advice?

http://anna-news.info/node/11634

What is Strelkov group doing in Eastern Ukraine? Here is nice explanation.

Many terrorist factions care about the level of popular support they enjoy within
a population they claim to represent. Empirically, this level of support can either rise
or fall in the aftermath of a campaign of terrorist violence. Under what circumstances
is the use of terror an effective tactic for mobilizing political support for an extremist
group? This paper models a scenario in which an extremist faction considers attacking
a government in the hopes of provoking a counterterror response that will radicalize
the population, increasing the extremists' support at the expense of a more moderate
faction. In our scenario, such radicalization can result either from the economic damage
caused by counterterror operations or by the way in which such operations change the
population's assessment of the government's motivations. We demonstrate that such
attempts at mobilizing public support can be, but need not be, successful, discuss
factors that make both the initiation of a terror campaign and successful mobilization
more or less likely, and relate our results to several empirical cases

http://www.nyu.edu/gsas/dept/politic...propaganda.pdf

[kaur]

To mirhond (Sorry moderator for text in Russian). Russian Kremlin connected statistical firm's analysis from January 2012 explains why Putin has chosen nationalist rhetoric to stay in power. Huge amount of Russians (most of them in countryside) support nationalistic ideas + nostalgie for Soviet time, when life was much better. Putin has choosen for his third term Prohhanov, Dugin and Kurginjan as his official ideologues. Kurginjan was the guy, who protected putch in 1991 and gave working place to head of KGB Krjutchkov (member of coup commitee).

Основной общественный запрос русского большинства в регионах явно направлен в
левонационалистическую сторону. По данным ВЦИОМ (2011), либеральный путь развития
сегодня готовы поддержать лишь 18% россиян. Гораздо больше тех (62%), кто готов
поддержать противоположный — скорее силовой сценарий, который мог бы радикально обновить российские элиты, политический класс, централизовать ресурсы на решение
стратегически значимых задач1. Однако и это консервативное большинство общества все в
меньшей степени связывает свои надежды с нынешним государством и его властными
институтами. Учитывая стремительную актуализацию националистической идеи, пусть в
относительно мягкой, приемлемой для большинства форме, именно от
левонационалистической идеологии можно ожидать статуса наиболее актуальной, способной
объединить новорусскую нацию в период ее становления. Это «русское большинство» при всех
накопившихся претензиях к путинской власти, все же относится к Путину намного более
терпимо, чем к большей части «сахаровских» лидеров, и на предстоящих выборах, вне всякого
сомнения, поддержит его. В своих программных статьях в «Известиях» Путин обращается
именно к этому провинциальному большинству, говоря об олигархах, разбогатевших на
залоговых аукционах середины 90-х и скупающих в Европе футбольные клубы. Но условная
поддержка Путина со стороны этой части электората еще не означает, что
левонационалистическая повестка будет снята, напротив, время ее еще только начинается. За
русских националистов борются и власть, и оппозиция. Власть приглашает на высокую
должность в правительстве Д. Рогозина, ее поддерживают ветераны национал-патриотической
мысли А. Проханов, А. Дугин и С. Кургинян.

http://wciom.ru/fileadmin/Monitoring...07_4_Byzov.pdf

Look at this Kurginjan organised pro Crimea meetin in the center of Moscow (15.03.2014). Is this style copying somebody? You can find Hitler's Nurmberg rally yourself. Kurginjan's event is of course joke in comparsion.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0vyneLOuWI

[Stan]

Russian Air Force helicopters began flying on the border with the Baltic countries

MOSCOW, April 30 - RIA Novosti. Helicopters Army Aviation WEST Russia began flying over the North-West of the country, told reporters on Wednesday the head of the press service of the Western Military District, Colonel Oleg Kochetkov.

"Army Aviation Brigade crews Western Military Region, stationed in Pskov region, started planning a training flight in the skies over the North-West of Russia. First rise in the sky at the same time a squadron of different types of attack helicopters were armed WEST, Mi-28N" Night Hunter "and Ka-52" Alligator "- said Kochetkov

[OUTLAW 09]

Russian Air Force helicopters began flying on the border with the Baltic countries

Stan---was behind four US Army Sustainment convoys headed from Berlin to Poland via Frankfurt Oder---three with four trucks each carrying two shipping containers.

Sustainment trucks were from KTown and they handle all container shipping for deploying units---were being accompanied by German MPs running flashing blue lights and were not maintaining required speeds then they were picked up by Polish MPs---looks like they were headed eastwards in a hurry.

Looks like the 173rd is in for a longer stay where they landed.

[OUTLAW 09]

kaur---a good find---the use of reservists is the Russian way of plausible deniability ---meaning hey we have no active duty personnel or the ground because you have not asked about nor mentioned reservists. The US does not seem to get the current Russia word usage meaning if they say red then they really mean yellow if they say green then they really mean pink---really does goes back to the Communist term dialectic materialism.

Secondly, watch the tactics actively shifting now as the population has not been pulled along with the buildings being taken over as in the Crimea so now they are trying to build a center of gravity around how many buildings equals the inability to hold the 25th of May elections so they can argue hey see we did not vote for the illegitimate government so we want Russia to step in and protect us.

Interesting is the fact that the local population while proRussian still does not want to de facto shift to Russia even with the massive agitation going on by the KGB/FSB/GRU and the Russian TV/radio media reports.

Like these two quotes on dialectic materialism from the past:

"Motion is the mode of existence of matter. Never anywhere has there been matter without motion, or motion without matter, nor can there be."

"Change of form of motion is always a process that takes place between at least two bodies, of which one loses a definite quantity of motion of one quality (e.g. heat), while the other gains a corresponding quantity of motion of another quality (mechanical motion, electricity, chemical decomposition).

"Dialectics, so-called objective dialectics, prevails throughout nature, and so-called subjective dialectics (dialectical thought), is only the reflection of the motion through opposites which asserts itself everywhere in nature, and which by the continual conflict of the opposites and their final passage into one another, or into higher forms, determines the life of nature."

Fredrick Engels
Dialectics of Nature

But dialectical materialism insists on the approximate relative character of every scientific theory of the structure of matter and its properties; it insists on the absence of absolute boundaries in nature, on the transformation of moving matter from one state into another, that from our point of view [may be] apparently irreconcilable with it, and so forth.

Vladimir Lenin
Materialism and Empirio-criticism

kaur---when one looks at how the self defense leaders all of a sudden assumed leadership check the Russian term "samoswanzy" from the 1584 period---it goes along way in explaining how they think and act.