Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[jmm99]

@Outlaw
JMM--nice news today in Europe--looks like the US is finding their thinking again ---there will be a large land maneuver with substantial US troops on the ground in the Baltics in the coming days---clear message is now what does it feel like when equals are across from each other.

I read VP Biden's lofty rhetoric as carried on the AP wire yesterday; e.g., Pushing back on Russia, Biden vows more sanctions (by JOSH LEDERMAN,
Associated Press; Published: Tuesday, Mar. 18, 2014 - 10:04 am; Last Modified: Tuesday, Mar. 18, 2014 - 10:47 am) (emphasis added):

WARSAW, Poland -- Denouncing Russia's actions in Crimea as "nothing more than a land grab," Vice President Joe Biden warned Russia on Tuesday that the U.S. and Europe will impose further sanctions as Moscow moved to annex part of Ukraine.

With limited options, the United States was seeking ways to show it won't stand idly by as Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty for the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea to join Russia. So far, Putin has been undeterred by sanctions and visa bans levied by the U.S. and the European Union, and there's no U.S. appetite for military intervention.

"Russia has offered a variety of arguments to justify what is nothing more than a land grab, including what he said today," Biden said in Poland, which shares a border with both Russia and Ukraine. "But the world has seen through Russia's actions and has rejected the flawed logic behind those actions."
...
In a clear warning to Moscow not to test other nations along its border, Biden said the U.S. commitment to defending its NATO allies is "ironclad." He promised more sanctions would be coming, along with new NATO training and exercises that will take place in Poland.

The vice president said the U.S. was considering rotating American forces to the Baltic region as a step toward ensuring the collective defense of NATO allies. Those forces could conduct ground and naval exercises, plus engage in training missions.

Or, were you speaking of real acts (which I missed) vs. rhetoric (which I didn't miss, but should have) - such as orders having been cut for 44 maneuver battalions to deploy to the Eastern Front. Do we still have 44 maneuver battalions ? You probably remember them from 1964.

It appears to me that some choices (for good or bad; and each person will have his own opinion as to those choices) have been made as to "the front". A US "Two Front" effort was well deceased by 2009, when Jim Cartwright was laconically honest about it; e.g., Pentagon to Change Two-Front War-Fighting Strategy - Marine Gen. James Cartwright said the old two-war plan is extreme (by Paul Bedard, July 29, 2009, Washington Whispers):

The Pentagon's two-front war-fighting strategy is going the way of the battleship: to the junkyard. A recognition of shrinking budgets and the reality that World War II isn't likely to repeat itself, the emerging plan will be a big change for the military. Marine Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, got the buzz rolling this month when he suggested that the developing plan would be to have the capability to fight smaller wars like in Iraq and Afghanistan and only one with a major "peer competitor" like China or Russia. The old two-war plan he dubbed an "extreme."

I'll wait for acts (by both sides, as Firn suggests).

Regards

Mike

[Stan]

Hey Mike,

Sounds a bit like saber rattling like we do every year in Korea under the guise of annual training.

The skies over the Baltic States have always had fighters from just about every NATO nation patrolling. Nothing new, just a ton of jet A1

The Baltic States have and continue to invite and create a NATO base. Hasn't happened in spite of massive reconstruction projects.

Mr. Biden says those forces could conduct ground and naval exercises and engage in training missions.

Hmmm, we already do and have done so since 95

Bravo Sierra !

Regards, Stan

[carl]

Boy do I get tired of hearing about how limited the options for the US are.
Here are some from the top of my head, large numbers of which come from Firn and Outlaw 09.

1. Tell the Poles and the Czechs the missile defense system is back on.

2. Put an entire squadron of F-22s and supporting tankers in Poland next week, permanently. EF-18s too.

3. Rescind landing rights for any Russian airplanes in the US. Stop all flights originating in the US that go into Russia.

4. All visas for entry into the US for all Russians will be stopped. None will be renewed.

4a. Exception to above. Any Russian who has a doctorate in a hard science, engineering, has very extensive experience in those fields or is a physician, will get an automatic green card upon application for one and $40,000 to help them relocate in the US.

5. Start shipping as many ATGMs to the Ukraine as you can put on anything that floats or flies, even the Dragons if they are still around.

6. Do the same thing with any SA-18s we can get hold of. And do the same thing with any of the Libyan SA-24s that we may have picked up.

7. Tell Boeing no more spare parts for aircraft are to be shipped to Russia. Same thing for the engine and avionics makers.

8. Freeze all Russian assets in the US.

9. Put an obvious close tail on every single Russian naval vessel at sea every minute they are at sea.

10. We had better have some intel on how much money Putin himself has overseas and where it is for all the money we spend on intel. Publish it.

11. Tell the oil companies to bring all their guys in Russia home.

12. Tell the oil companies that if they want to apply for a LNG export terminal tomorrow, the approval will come next week.

13. We have M-1 tanks surplus to our needs, maybe Poland and Ukraine would like some.

And on and on. These are things that we can do on our own without the west Europeans. Firn would know of various financial things that we can do on our own. The point is there are a lot of things we can do, if the genii Athenians inside the beltway stop talking themselves into helplessness.

This is very worrying to me. We have three more years of this administration and if they don't stop shoveling they may dig a hole for us so deep we may not get out.

[jmm99]

1. Any or all of the acts you suggest would be better than lofty rhetoric - if no acts are really intended, then our Beltway should STFU.

2. Your suggestions beg the question of which EU-NATO states are willing to step up to the military plate - are there any; and, if so, how far are they willing to go ?

3. To what extent does the US provide "matching assets" ? I'd suggest that the EU-NATO inputs into Iraq and Afghanistan would be good precedents for the % of US involvement (a secondary effort, as EU-NATO has been in our two wars) to a European crisis (where EU-NATO should take the lead, not the US). They've helped us out in the very recent past; we should help them to the same extent - reciprocity !

4. If EU-NATO is up to the task of confronting Putin-Ivanov, then it will gain its spurs - perhaps, it then could become the pre-eminent hegemonic power. If it is not up to that task (not taking on the task is the same thing) using primarily its own power and methods, then that is a good thing for Americans to know.

5. I'm willing to be patient and let the EU-NATO hand play out (as Firn suggests). I'd as soon not hear our politicians talk up all the bad things they are going to do to Vlad and his Russkies.

Regards

Mike

PS: here's one for you, Carl - a daymare - three more years + 8 of Billary !!

I also realize that patience is difficult in the face of headlines such as this, Calls to escalate Russia sanctions leave EU in a quandary (by Luke Baker, BRUSSELS Mar 18, 2014):

(Reuters) - Mocked by Moscow, the European Union needs to impose far tougher sanctions over Crimea to make President Vladimir Putin sit up and pay attention, but its ability to agree them is limited - and consensus may not be achievable at all.
...
Some EU foreign ministers quietly agree and are frustrated. They wanted harder-hitting sanctions, but EU restrictions have to be agreed unanimously, which means the measures are only as strong as the country with the deepest reservations will allow.

Austria is among the doubters. "Sanctions don't solve problems," said Chancellor Werner Faymann. "The solution can only be getting to negotiations." ... (much more "quandaries" in story)

[OUTLAW 09]

JMM---story indicates a joint Army/Marine unit coming in for an exercise and training of Baltic troops.

Do not think it is just talk.

Interesting the way they are using the exercise excuse thus one level below a threat---knowing though how it will be interpreted.

This came in via the NYT: "A Ukrainian official also says the country will hold joint military exercises with the U.S. and Britain."

This is far deeper as the Russian military is matching if not expanding their reactions---they are flexing their muscles as a show of strength befitting a superpower---at least in their eyes and that makes this a far more complicated thing than just a "cold war" thing.

In some aspects they are showing us their complete rebuilding is finished and they can match us in ways we did not estimate they could as IMO intel wise we lost them in the last 12 years of chasing jihadi's.

There is more to Putin's physic makeup that they are paying attention to ---would really recommend reading the English or if one speaks Russian (that is better as it catches the reflections/intonations of the language) that gives a lot of insight to what triggered his actions.

That is what they are paying attention to-----IMO they initially misread him even if Bush claimed "he looked him in the eyes" ......

What worries me is the simple fact that the intel community both in the US and in Europe totally missed this thing as it was building---so much for Pearl Harbor and the creation of an intel team called Indications and Warnings.

[jmm99]

JMM---story indicates a joint Army/Marine unit coming in for an exercise and training of Baltic troops.

Do not think it is just talk.

I won't; because without a link I don't know if it is anything at all.

Regards

Mike

[carl]

Mike:

I don't quite understand your point 3.

I think we could do quite a lot without the EU and with only some NATO members, Poland, the Czechs, the Baltic countries and maybe some others who were occupied by the Red friends. They understand very wel what all this means.

If the EU and NATO as a whole get their act together, great; but we can do a whole lot of things in the meantime or without them altogether.

Of course, no matter what fine courses of action we can come up with, the final say is had by Mr. & Mrs. Obama, Valerie Jarret and their pulsilaminous but very concerned crew.

They used to say God took care of drunks and the United States. Maybe he hasn't run out of patience with drunks.

[jmm99]

from Helsingin Sanomat, Putin knows the Finns well enough, but do any of us really know him? (by Anu Nousiainen; first published in print 9.1.2000):

The memories differ a little on the precise date of the big match, but it was sometime early in 1994: in the indoor soccer hall at Turku's Impivaara, the two teams warmed up for the fixture between the Bishop's Boys and Petersburg City. A fairly motley crew of footballers of various ages, waistlines, and levels of fitness trotted out onto the artificial grass. The Petersburg side in particular looked somewhat less than professional in their borrowed shirts (mind you, they were borrowed from a Finnish league side) and several appeared to be playing in trainers. Someone even had a pair of jeans on.

The Bishop's Boys under their captain Archbishop John Vikstrom, who could have been a contender but for his vocation, were not out to thrash the opposition, and strolled to a leisurely and polite 2-1 victory over the visitors. And why are we talking football here? Simply because among the eleven Petersburg players was one Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Apparently he was one of the ones with proper soccer shoes. ... (much more in article)

and, Who remembers 2nd Secretary Ivanov? - The Russian First Deputy Prime Minister spent six years in Helsinki in the 1980s (by Heikki Hellman; first published in print 1.4.2007):

...
In the 1980s, Sergei Ivanov lived in Helsinki, working under the title of a 3rd (and later 2nd) Secretary at the Soviet Embassy in the capital.

Over a period of nearly six years he thoroughly familiarised himself with Finland and met a great many Finnish politicians, businessmen, and university people.

For many Finns active at that time, he is simply Sergei. That old acquaintance of theirs who - before he acquired ministerial status some years ago - might call them up in their Moscow hotel room with a cheery: "Hi! It's Sergei."

Perhaps we ought to back up a little way and consider regarding Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov as a kind of "Finnish champion", too, on the strength of how much he knows about Finland and the Finns.

But what do the Finns know of him?

Who recalls Comrade Ivanov from those days?

The surprising thing is that while many remember Sergei Ivanov, there is very little to be said about him. ... (much more in story).

So, the extroverted cold fish and the introverted cold fish.

Regards

Mike

[davidbfpo]

Via Twitter:

Scowcroft on Ru: "we assume we have to match them w belligerence." Let's show some creativity in our response

To date the options exercised seem half-hearted and without any clear explanation to the public here. The sanctions against individuals are pathetic, yes they signal opposition, but are nothing more than a public display.

Military options have their place, although deploying into the Ukraine now is un-wise. It must be a common NATO display and I've yet to see any such reporting.

Wider economic sanctions need to be creative, although some of Carl's options would be stark signs of "no more, the cost can get higher".

[jmm99]

Point 3 ties in with Point 2 - they both have to do with EU-NATO capabilities and will to use those capabilities. Assuming (without any evidence I can present right now) that there is a coalition of the "able and willing", from the Baltic to the Black Sea, how far are they ready to go militarily ?

That's a strategic question - recall from Luttwak's Strategy the Cold War contradictions between what the Germans wanted and the US wanted. That was in many ways a US show. If one thinks that is still the case with 2014 Ukraine, one should disabuse oneself of that notion.

Going from that position on Point 2 (EU-NATO on board for military action, or a material part of it - say, your Eastern States) to Point 3, we do unto them as they have done to us in the recent past - Iraq and Afghanistan seem good precedents to me.

BUT, LET ME MAKE THIS CRYSTAL - the US would be a secondary player; and absent material European participation (on far higher levels than US), the US would not play in any military scenario. Not even one JSOC operator.

Regards

Mike

PS: From my "Calls to escalate" link:

At a small lunch held a few days before the first phase of sanctions was imposed on Monday, one EU ambassador cautioned against moving too quickly or aggressively on Moscow.

"We don't want to end up on an escalator where we don't know where it's going," he said, arguing that once you take the first step on sanctions, there are immediate calls for more substantial measures to increase the pressure.

"What do you do when sanctions run out?" he asked, leaving hanging the inference that the EU does not want - and could not afford - a more physical confrontation with Russia.

In the end, the ambassador's country joined the rest in unanimously agreeing the measures which were less tough than sanctions imposed by the United States.

"We have done what we said we could do, but, yes, the U.S. is from Mars, we are from Venus," said Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who wanted at least four more names on the EU list but was rebuffed by other member states.

"I would suggest that we are not overly enthusiastic when it comes to introducing sanctions, because we will pay for it."

If the Poles think we are from Mars and they from Venus, an "able and willing" military Eastern Coalition seems doubtful. Hell, yes, they'd all want US divisions (not just brigades, mind), so long as the US could guarantee there'd be no damages to their countries from war, etc., etc.

[carl]

Mike:

I don't think there is any need for US military forces outside current NATO members . I don't think there is a need for any regular US ground forces in any of the front line NATO countries. They have plenty of guys who can fight and would be thrilled to have a crack at Ivan. There is a need for money, weapons and for the front line NATO countries, air cover. If Ivan goes into any part of the rest of Ukraine it may be an Unconventional Warfare jamboree. Those front line NATO nations and the Ukrainians have plenty of tough top flight guys who can handle everything in that country.

If the Poles don't act like Poles if Ivan keeps moving, I'll look for the sun to rise in the west, but they will need backup from us in the ways I've described.

[jcustis]

What worries me is the simple fact that the intel community both in the US and in Europe totally missed this thing as it was building---so much for Pearl Harbor and the creation of an intel team called Indications and Warnings.

Don't blame the analysts. Russia missed it too at the outset, and it became a really bad situation for Putin. It's not as though there weren't EUCOM analysts who weren't watching and charting the course of things.

It just happened that Putin acted decisively and quickly, while we waited for the situation to develop. Facilitating democracy seems to be a wait-and-see enterprise for the US and other democracies. It is easy to outcycle that approach.

I work at a combatant command now, and trust me when I say this: folks know what is going on and what is about to happen. It's the politicians and cabinet principals who don't act in a timely manner.

[jmm99]

just quid pro quo.

Up front, I'm not objecting to my and your sending US troops to bad places, where they will see worse situations, etc. In any event, they (not 10 yr old Ukrainian school children) are and will be my paramount priority; e.g., 278th ACR (two OIF tours; my dad's WWII unit, then 117th Inf.); 107th Engineer Combat Battalion (OIF & OEF tours; our local sappers).

If I had the say, I wouldn't do it, however, without very good reasons and without imposing conditions on "allies", "partners", etc. - which I've expressed. If you want the model, it's Jack Pershing.

Your hopes on this:

I don't think there is any need for US military forces outside current NATO members . I don't think there is a need for any regular US ground forces in any of the front line NATO countries. They have plenty of guys who can fight and would be thrilled to have a crack at Ivan. There is a need for money, weapons and for the front line NATO countries, air cover. If Ivan goes into any part of the rest of Ukraine it may be an Unconventional Warfare jamboree. Those front line NATO nations and the Ukrainians have plenty of tough top flight guys who can handle everything in that country.

If the Poles don't act like Poles if Ivan keeps moving, I'll look for the sun to rise in the west, but they will need backup from us in the ways I've described.

may or may not be justified by their future acts. Until they are, I'm not on your bandwagon.

Regards

Mike

[OUTLAW 09]

JMM---reference the cold fish comments--what does one expect from a well trained KGB officer?

Never forget that this was his frame of reference for his future thinking and you saw that in his Duma speech.

It is that frame of reference that is the danger---the old glory of the SU and the superpower status that he feels Russia lost when the SU fell apart.

Check some of his comments since the breakup---then check two sentences in his speech directed towards the Germans specifically.

He said that the Germans should understand and allow Russia to reunite as a country as it was the Russians that allowed the Germans to reunite as a country.

This is an interesting point in past history that many Americans probably did not know---check what the responses were from the US/UK/France when the wall came down and the West Germans drove immediately to reunification.

The Western Allies actually drug their combined feet and found constant reasons to delay major face to face meetings and there is even some reports they wanted the Germans to go much slower---it was in fact the Russians that pushed the speed button.

NOW comes some of Putin's anger---the Russians assumed with German unification they would slowly back out of NATO and go a tad neutral and were angry that when the Allies left Berlin in 1994 they simply pulled back to their NATO bases in western Germany---the Soviet Army Germany pulled out in 1995 and went where---back to Russia and Germany stayed in NATO.

These are the small items that cropped up in his speech.

But in the end he was and still in his frame of reference a KGB officer.

[OUTLAW 09]

jcustis---if in fact your comment alludes to EUCOM analysts knowing that it was coming and the warnings were not escalated in a way that let say initial comments coming out of the WH "warning" against this move to occur prior to the military movement evidently did not happen.

Surprises me as the military has always been able to leak in ways that motivate the politicians---but again nothing from the EUCOM came out as well.

The old Soviet Army was "watched" like a hawk in the old days for exactly this display of speed and it was felt that any Soviet Army attack would come out of a mobilization for an exercise and then shift in speed which is exactly what happen here on the ground and we still see it happening on the eastern side of the Ukraine as well as with their aerial exercises in NW Russia.

Granted it takes politicians longer to respond, but even the Europeans were caught off guard.

Yes Putin got surprised with the speed of the breakdown and breakup of the Moscow supported Ukrainian government but the Russian military decision to move into the Crimea requires either a preplanned maneuver plan or a little time to rev up---in this case I am tipping that it was preplanned and just pulled out of the filing cabinet.

My experience with the Russian staff planning processes and thought process does not lend itself to a quick hip pocket ad hoc operation another indicator of a preplanned event.

Still question why there was a disconnect between the military I&W and the decision makers---that was the purpose behind the creation of I&W---to have no disconnect--- and from your comment it seems to not have happened.

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn---this is from today via German reporting and in German but basically says that the Russian government (Finance Minister Siluanow) will not support companies that are in financial difficulties as they did in 2008.

Why the comment---Russian business leaders were voicing their concerns about possible effects of the economic sanctions on them.

Strange is it not that the Putin government has to threaten their own business community in order to shut them up about complaining of possibly damage due to sanctions---does not fit the image Putin and Co. are trying to project create that they are not gong to be hurt by them.

So I guess what the sanctions will not hurt us-- but behind the scenes if you are with us and stay publicly quiet then we will inject cash and no one will be the wiser?

By the way did you read about the arrest several days ago of the richest Ukrainian oligarch who has close ties to Putin/Moscow---occurred when he was in Vienna at the behest of the US.

Also looks like the EU/US will reimplement the cold war industrial goods/products embargo list on key items that Russian imports/needs---will be talked about today at the EU meeting and will probably be released at the EU/US Obama meeting next week

"Die russische Regierung will Firmen in finanziellen Schwierigkeiten nicht untersttzen - anders als in der Finanzkrise 2008. Das gab Finanzminister Anton Siluanow bekannt. Hintergrund der Ankndigung: Russische Unternehmer hatten Bedenken ber die Auswirkungen moeglicher Sanktionen geaeussert."