Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Firn]

A couple of posts ago I asked if we will see a heavy brigade rolling out of Sevastopol:



Not exactly MBT nor seemingly a brigade yet but another box ticked off in the old spiel, posted 40 min. ago.

I also wondered when finally Mr. Putin would 'cave in' to the big pressure inside Russia and from the Crimea and break his 'inaction'. Now at last he does something, after his unruly troops have spontaneously occupied most of the Crimea:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked the upper house of parliament to approve sending armed forces to Ukraine’s Crimea region, the Kremlin said in a statement on Saturday.

“In connection with the extraordinary situation in Ukraine, the threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, our compatriots, and the personnel of the armed forces of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian territory (in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) ... I submit a proposal on using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the normalisation of the socio-political situation in the that country,” the statement said.

How surprising

Since yesterday night I have become convinced that it is a complete Russian invasion so far limited to the Crimea. Once you cut through the fog of war with that view the Russian actions today were pretty predictable unless a strong reaction happened from the attacked nation.

P.S: It is also not unexpected that some Ukrainian would come up with such a picture:



Just protecting the people abroad which happen to speak your language and your culture and finished perhaps unjustly within the borders of another nation. It is no surprise that they also call for you help, rightly or not and establish self-defense forces...

[carl]

Russia already has insurgencies in its south that it can't handle. Now it may grab a chunk of the Ukraine possibly giving itself another insurgency to deal with since the Ukrainians have a history of that kind of thing. This action may not be good for Russia in the long run no matter how much fun it is for Vlad now.

[Firn]

Fresh news.

The upper house of the Russian parliament unanimously approved President Putin’s request to use armed forces in defence of Russians and Russian interests, anywhere in the territory of Ukraine.

So Russia reserves itself the right to invade other parts of it's sovereign neighbour. It may or may not, of course. Maybe there still has to be an discussion in Moskva where and when the fascist bandits should try to attack next. Brave Russiaphile self-defense forces will of course be waiting for them.

So the dear Vladimir has decided to cut very deeply indeed into the Russian flesh or better the long-term interests of the Russian nation. I bet most of the Ukraine will feel profound love for the nation which calls them 'little brother' and that the whole of Europe will now convinced of the peace-loving nature of the current leadership. I would love to know what the big Western leaders think now after they had all those pleasant conversations on the phone with Vladimirovic...

[TheCurmudgeon]

Those closer to the situation are also posturing,

Paris: Foreign ministers of France, Germany, and Poland -- currently leading an European mediation in Ukraine -- voiced concern Friday over the worsening security situation in the country, urging for unity to complete a political transition.

"We are deeply concerned with the tensions in Crimea," Xinhua quoted top French diplomat Laurent Fabius as saying. “Everything must be done to decrease the tension in the eastern region and promote peaceful discussions among relevant parties.”

In a joint statement with German and Polish counterparts Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Radoslaw Sikorski, Fabius reaffirmed "support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country", urging "all parties in Ukraine to refrain from actions that could challenge this".

[Firn]

Spot the difference...

Saying sorry on their knees on Maidan to the pro-western Ukrainians:



Saying sorry on their knees in Kharkiv to pro-Russians activists:





A logical consequence of the Russian invasion:

Vitali Klitschko, the former boxer now contending to be Ukraine's next president, has urged parliament to mobilise the army, AFP news agency reports. "Parliament must ask the army's commander-in-chief to declare national mobilisation after the start of Russian aggression against Ukraine," he said in a statement. He also asked for the UN Security Council to gather urgently for talks on the crisis.

So far the Ukrainian forces let the Russians walked into their country unopposed. Many in Kviev will ask themselves how far Mr.Putin will go to achieve his political goals by military goals. Are some of the Eastern regions next if they just stand idle by? Maybe even more? What do you have defensive forces if the are not at least making some effort to make it a bit more difficult to take over parts of your country...

[TheCurmudgeon]

Even if the US wanted to intervene, how long would it take us to unilaterally mount a credible heavy force to react?

[Firn]

Of bio loos and false flags, how the former pro-Russian leadership of Ukraine planned to discredit and disrupt the activists of Maidan. After looking at the way the Russian media has been producing cookie-cutter caricatures of fascists bands one is inclined to believe that those documents are real. Yanukovych is surly a sad man now that it didn't work out for him.

6. Imitate robberies:


TRANSLATION: imitate robberies, by breaking shop windows, of the shops near Independence Square, including Globus, where some Euro-Maidan activists are staying.

ANALYSIS: This didn't seem to have worked. Protesters' militia, called Samooborona (Self-defence forces) had regular patrols around the square, and alcohol was banned throughout.

8/9. 'Create grounds for anti-terror op'

TRANSLATION: Ensure that weapons, explosive substances and also objects resembling improvised explosive devices and ammunition are found during searches of the buildings, facilities and tents, and that the aforementioned facts are covered by the media.

TRANSLATION: Ensure that weapons, explosive substances and also objects resembling improvised explosive devices and ammunition are found during searches of the buildings, facilities and tents, and that the aforementioned facts are covered by the media.

ANALYSIS: Boomerang was the code name of the operation that included snipers, which resulted in multiple deaths in Kiev. Obviously the SBU [security service] knew about the plan and there were repeated reports about weapons allegedly stored in large number among the protestors. In one case, explosives were handed over to two young men in the protestors' HQ. They were badly injured when they opened the packet. While there were reports of firearms used by the protestors on 22 February, none of those killed by the snipers appeared to be carrying any guns.

It is certainly amazing how those guys and girls were able to pull it off against the odds.

[JMA]

I would love to know what the big Western leaders think now after they had all those pleasant conversations on the phone with Vladimirovic...

They realise just how impotent they really are.

If Assad doesn't listen to them why should Russia?

[Firn]

I generally dislike the impulse of peope to compare a current situation with a far more stark past, but I could not resist to take a quick look at the Wiki:

Sudeten German pro-Nazi leader Konrad Henlein offered the Sudeten German Party (SdP) as the agent for Hitler's campaign. Henlein met with Hitler in Berlin on 28 March 1938, where he was instructed to raise demands unacceptable to the Czechoslovak government led by president Edvard Beneš. On 24 April, the SdP issued the Karlsbader Programm, demanding autonomy for the Sudetenland and the freedom to profess Nazi ideology. If Henlein's demands were granted, the Sudetenland would then be able to align itself with Nazi Germany.

"I am asking neither that Germany be allowed to oppress three and a half million Frenchmen, nor am I asking that three and a half million Englishmen be placed at our mercy. Rather I am simply demanding that the oppression of three and a half million Germans in Czechoslovakia cease and that the inalienable right to self-determination take its place." - Adolf Hitler's speech at the NSDAP Congress 1938

There are certainly some differences but also quite some similarities...

So now I understand even more why some Polish? guy decided to take this not so original take on Mr. Putin:



Perhaps it was just retweeted by an Ukrainian.

@JMA: I think Putin would have been wise to show restraint. Yes he achieved a strategic surprise by preparing and executing an invasion while he fooled the Western powers. Yes he occupied the Crimea and right now there is very little the Western powers or the Ukraine can do against it. Yes he will be pretty satisfied with him and perhaps be rather smug. But there will be a steep price to payed by the Russian people, hopefully and so far likely not in blood. Russia might boast itself for the vast natural ressources but it's economy is only kept afloat by the money payed mostly by Europeans for it. And increasingly Europe is moving away from Russian imports. There is little doubt that Russia depends economically more on Europe then the other way around.

In any case the words of some Western politicians sound now indeed naive and perhaps even stupid, and Putins words have no worth at all.

[carl]

Even if the US wanted to intervene, how long would it take us to unilaterally mount a credible heavy force to react?

Nothing much at all can be done now. But what can be done that will work well is get our LNG export terminals on line asap and the same for the gas field in the Med off Israel.

[Firn]

Indeed carl, there is quite a bit underway in that regard. The recent events should give such projects a big boost and might kick life into others, some of which were already considered to be dead. After the 2008-09 gas dispute there was, under vastly different circumstances such a reaction but it faded away. I think quite a few will think now about the old saying: Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.

[Bill Moore]

It is easy to see how we walk into situations 3/4 blind due our government's and media's framing of the narrative. I'm no advocate for Russia or Putin but there is more to this story than is being covered.

http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS..._14000042.aspx

Special comment: What Western media have not reported is the description of events in Ukraine and Crimea by Russian speakers who live there and broadcast by Russian media. Russian state TV has portrayed Ukraine as a country in chaos. Reports have emphasized the vulnerability and fears of the Russian-speaking population, particularly in eastern Ukraine and Crimea.

Some reports state that Ukrainian hooligans are burning the houses of Russian speakers. Others state that Ukrainian militias are marching to take over Crimea. Still others say the Ukraine regime in Kyiv intends to ban the use of the Russian language.

Protection of Russians and Russian speakers and supporters was the justification for Russian military intervention in Georgia in 2008.

There is no doubt there is some truth in their claims. That is simply the nature of these conflicts, but we prefer to erase the gray areas and frame it in black and white terms.

In other words, the Western news narrative about freedom fighters and enlightened democrats in Kyiv is not the only narrative. The Russian version of the story depicts the new leaders of Ukraine as criminals, terrorists, neo-Nazis and Western agents, especially the new interim prime minister Yatsenyuk, who is an American favorite with almost no following in Ukraine, according to Forbes.

In the Western story line, Russian behavior is belligerent, unreasonable and irresponsible. In the Russian storyline, Russian soldiers are hastening to defend ethnic Russians from Ukrainian bullies and Western deception and betrayal. The Russian soldiers are preventing the spread of chaos and responding to an appeal for humanitarian assistance.

Bolded area is my highlight which points once again to uninformed State Department meddling and pushing their favorite candidates regardless of their legitimacy with the actual constituents.

[carl]

Bill:

What your excerpts are describing almost exactly parallels the canned propaganda campaign as outlined by Firn.

[Bill Moore]

Good propaganda has an element of truth to it.

[Chris jM]

The other point to remember is that Russia most likely has its own red-lines and that some may have been triggered already.

Moscow lost control of Ukraine during the Great Patriotic War and I suspect they do not want to see the former Soviet state simply swing into the West's sphere. That would put the front line of the East-West divide right back at the heartland of Russia as it was in 1940/41. Russia's strategy for security seems to depend around the inevitability of the state's centralist weaknesses being mitigated by the immense distances and buffer-zones of the former Soviet states. Pre-empting Ukraine becoming a part or an associate of NATO is, if I were to make an uneducated guess, the driving calculus for Moscow right now.

In the same way that the American presence projected into Iraq served as a means of influencing Iran and Saudi Arabia back in '03, I suspect that Russian presence projected into Georgia in '08 helped serve, in part, as a means of influencing Ukraine. I think that Russia isn't willing to accept such a fundamental change to it's geopolitical assumptions given the potentially enormous consequences of losing Ukraine to the EU/NATO sphere (and, while the likes of Orange revolution and the recent ousting of Yanukovych are baby steps, they do have huge potential for changing the trajectory of the region).

[carl]

Good propaganda has an element of truth to it.

Entirely too facile. Good propaganda knows the audience and what will move it and acts upon that. Truth has little to do with it.

[Bill Moore]

This must be the Forbe's article that referenced.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsate...n-into-crimea/

5 Things You Should Know About Putin's Incursion Into Crimea

1. What Is Crimea? Crimea is a semi-autonomous region of Ukraine, which means that while it is part of Ukraine’s sovereign territory, it is largely self governed.

2. Why Russia Wants It. Put simply, without a naval base in Crimea Russia is finished as a global military power.

A few other comments about national pride, etc., but the core interest seems to be the ability to project military power, to include Russia's support for Assad.

3. Why Ukraine Wants It. Crimea, it should be stressed, is sovereign Ukrainian territory.

many regions of Crimea, especially Sevastopol and the capital of Simferopol, are avidly pro-Russian, much of it is not.

There is also the matter of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons and Russia vowed to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

4. What We’re Doing About It

Unfortunately, if Putin wants to take Crimea, there’s very little Ukraine, the US or NATO can do about it.

the West is not wholly without leverage either. While it went mostly unnoticed in the American press, Obama made an unscheduled stop to Vice President Biden’s meeting with Georgia’s Prime Minister Garibashvili and expressed support for creating closer ties and for its aspirations of full NATO membership.

5. What Will Be The Consequences?

If Putin does annex Crimea, it will surely bring international condemnation and, quite probably, some form of implicit or explicit trade sanctions. With its weakened economy, that is not something that Russia can easily afford and a downturn can be expected.

Putin will also see a military buildup in his backyard. NATO membership for Georgia, with the advanced weapon systems and training it will bring,

The Crimean Tartars, with their deep hatred of Russia, will resist Russian sovereignty, possibly resulting in a situation similar to the one in war-torn Chechnya.

And that is what is so worrying about Putin’s latest moves. They show that he is clearly a desperate man,

Obviously my opinion only, but despite the sky is falling reports from Foxx Media/News, from a strategic perspective it appears the U.S. and the West actually have the upper hand and it is Putin that is in the no win situation if you evaluate who gains and loses over time.

Putin probably has a credible narrative about ethnic Russians being threatened Crimea, I suspect in some regards it is little different than many other countries that have experienced decades of conflict and where there is has been little in the way of reconciliation between the various ethnic groups. If one gets the upper hand the other will be oppressed. He can use that argument as a thinly veiled reason to insert troops using our rhetoric of responsibility to protect (R2P), but if the author the Forbes' article is right, it will backfire on him. Chess, not checkers.

[Firn]

@Bill Moore/carl: I agree that the best propaganda inflates some grain of truth. If you look at the propaganda streaming out from the Russian media it is quite revealing on how little it can base itself. The only big Ukrainian own goal was the language law which was portrayed as a threat to throw guys speaking Russian into prison. If there were really brutal attacks on streets on Russian speakers or arson attacks the propaganda machine would milk it with gusto. But just like in the case of all those 'fascist bandits' there is so little, so few facts which can be brought to bear without having much to add. But if you would believe some of the Russian media a genocide seems to be almost at hand.

One of the most shocking aspects of the whole Russian invasion is how pure of a cold war power play it was so far. The pretext was so feeble that it is not even worth discussing. Putin was doing an Afghanistan-type invasion with some Sudetenland elements while he seemingly reassured the Western leaders. As I have written before the take-over in the Crimea is something out of an old Soviet textbook minus the killing with some brown markings.

To be honest I don't know to which extent Putin acted to avoid the loss of face in front of his own people after the media went wild with fascist bandit this, fascist bandit that for months. In any case he did what he did and this tells enough.

So nobody should be surprised by this news:

James Mates ‏@jamesmatesitv

Latvia+Lithuania have invoked NATO art. 4 in response to #crimea NATO now obliged to hold emerg council meeting. Only 4th time in history

Latvia has a far higher amount of Russians which were settled there, like in the Crimea after WWII, partly to provide more control over the locals. How else but very concerned should they feel after such Russian aggression?

In my humble opinion Putin is risking to lose the Ukraine with it's 40+ million by invading the 2 million Ukrainian Crimea. It could well turn out to be a Phyrric victory. Just like the US invasion of Iraq promoted the importance of actually having powerful WMD (think Iran) the recent Russian invasion has shown to western-minded Ukrainians how important it is to get under the umbrella of the EU or/and NATO. I doubt that the Ukrainian elections will give pro-Russian any significant power in the national parliament for a long time unless we see a repeat of East Germany 1953, Hungary 1956 or Czechoslovakia 1968. And with the element of surprise now gone it is difficult to imagine that the Russian troops can just drive into Kviev to eat ice or drink cocktails.

[AdamG]

OSINT mapping
http://cigeography.blogspot.com/

[TheCurmudgeon]

As best as I can tell, we should still have two ships in the Black Sea, although one has a new commander.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...er-sochi-tour/

I doubt we have too much else in the area. I don't believe we can get a carrier into the Black Sea, anyone know about Marine capabilities in the Mediterranean?

While this is all very interesting, it seems that cooler heads are prevailing at least on the Ukrainian side. They will not easily be goaded into a confrontation.