Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[OUTLAW 09]

JMM---reference the cold fish comments--what does one expect from a well trained KGB officer?

Never forget that this was his frame of reference for his future thinking and you saw that in his Duma speech.

It is that frame of reference that is the danger---the old glory of the SU and the superpower status that he feels Russia lost when the SU fell apart.

Check some of his comments since the breakup---then check two sentences in his speech directed towards the Germans specifically.

He said that the Germans should understand and allow Russia to reunite as a country as it was the Russians that allowed the Germans to reunite as a country.

This is an interesting point in past history that many Americans probably did not know---check what the responses were from the US/UK/France when the wall came down and the West Germans drove immediately to reunification.

The Western Allies actually drug their combined feet and found constant reasons to delay major face to face meetings and there is even some reports they wanted the Germans to go much slower---it was in fact the Russians that pushed the speed button.

NOW comes some of Putin's anger---the Russians assumed with German unification they would slowly back out of NATO and go a tad neutral and were angry that when the Allies left Berlin in 1994 they simply pulled back to their NATO bases in western Germany---the Soviet Army Germany pulled out in 1995 and went where---back to Russia and Germany stayed in NATO.

These are the small items that cropped up in his speech.

But in the end he was and still in his frame of reference a KGB officer.

[OUTLAW 09]

jcustis---if in fact your comment alludes to EUCOM analysts knowing that it was coming and the warnings were not escalated in a way that let say initial comments coming out of the WH "warning" against this move to occur prior to the military movement evidently did not happen.

Surprises me as the military has always been able to leak in ways that motivate the politicians---but again nothing from the EUCOM came out as well.

The old Soviet Army was "watched" like a hawk in the old days for exactly this display of speed and it was felt that any Soviet Army attack would come out of a mobilization for an exercise and then shift in speed which is exactly what happen here on the ground and we still see it happening on the eastern side of the Ukraine as well as with their aerial exercises in NW Russia.

Granted it takes politicians longer to respond, but even the Europeans were caught off guard.

Yes Putin got surprised with the speed of the breakdown and breakup of the Moscow supported Ukrainian government but the Russian military decision to move into the Crimea requires either a preplanned maneuver plan or a little time to rev up---in this case I am tipping that it was preplanned and just pulled out of the filing cabinet.

My experience with the Russian staff planning processes and thought process does not lend itself to a quick hip pocket ad hoc operation another indicator of a preplanned event.

Still question why there was a disconnect between the military I&W and the decision makers---that was the purpose behind the creation of I&W---to have no disconnect--- and from your comment it seems to not have happened.

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn---this is from today via German reporting and in German but basically says that the Russian government (Finance Minister Siluanow) will not support companies that are in financial difficulties as they did in 2008.

Why the comment---Russian business leaders were voicing their concerns about possible effects of the economic sanctions on them.

Strange is it not that the Putin government has to threaten their own business community in order to shut them up about complaining of possibly damage due to sanctions---does not fit the image Putin and Co. are trying to project create that they are not gong to be hurt by them.

So I guess what the sanctions will not hurt us-- but behind the scenes if you are with us and stay publicly quiet then we will inject cash and no one will be the wiser?

By the way did you read about the arrest several days ago of the richest Ukrainian oligarch who has close ties to Putin/Moscow---occurred when he was in Vienna at the behest of the US.

Also looks like the EU/US will reimplement the cold war industrial goods/products embargo list on key items that Russian imports/needs---will be talked about today at the EU meeting and will probably be released at the EU/US Obama meeting next week

"Die russische Regierung will Firmen in finanziellen Schwierigkeiten nicht untersttzen - anders als in der Finanzkrise 2008. Das gab Finanzminister Anton Siluanow bekannt. Hintergrund der Ankndigung: Russische Unternehmer hatten Bedenken ber die Auswirkungen moeglicher Sanktionen geaeussert."

[Firn]

Disregarding pretty much everything coming out of the Kremlin as deception and propagand and just looking at the deeds doesn't seem to be that stupid for now. I have invested yesterday a bit of time and read the Russian snapshot of the World Bank from October 2013, which does look at the economy in a systematic fashion. Some neat figures (2,4,6,10) and facts (table 1).

This comment in the german Zeit does reflect my views pretty well. The strange bunch which went to Crimea to 'observe' has been really a most amazing combination of extremist and partially criminal elements of European politics.

More about the visa issue:

"We should not be in a hurry with the introduction of a visa regime with Russia...," Yatseniuk's press service said, referring to comments the prime minister made in Brussels.

"Such an initiative by Ukraine is most unlikely to be effective in terms of influencing Russia," he said, adding that the measure could negatively affect Ukrainians living in the predominantly Russian-speaking east of the country.

I read that 3 million Ukrainian citziens are working in Russia, a number which does surprise me. Of course the wage differential should be rather large, less unemployment, little travel and labour restrictions, a long permeable border, most Ukrainians speak good Russians and so forth but I imagined the amount to be smaller. It would be interesting to know how many of those commute...

Perhaps they will ask 'only' for 'travel documents' without much ado, and push visas for now back. We will see.

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn--Merkel's speech today in Parliament before she left for Brussels was a hardening in her tone---something new for her and I think in general German politics. She also indicated that if the talking with Putin does not go anywhere Germany is prepared to go to hard sanctions even if it hits them.

When she spoke of the coming G8 meetings she stated what G8? and no G8 meeting as long as the surrounding politics do not allow it.

They have stopped all military sales to Russia which included new vehicles and a 140M USD simulation enter the Russians were counting on to improve their C&C and the CA fire and move element which they are still in from the 50/60s.

The UK has stopped their military sales as well which was a lot and the French are delaying the two carriers for Russia and Russian just demanded penalties if they do not deliver the first one on time.

Not sure Russia calculated this quick of a total stop to military sales as it was a planned part of their military rebuilding efforts especially the naval vessels with French technology.

Reference Die Linke -- Zeit newspaper article---they were pushing to join in a future political coalition with the SPD and Greens (red, red, green) and with their fallback into cold war rhetoric and their matching of Putin's Crimea arguments they basically killed that notion for the coming years as being politically kind of in an isolation mode with their views. Die Linke is a holdover of the former GDR Communist Party as well the former West German CP and is while a minority relativity strong % wise in the former GDR.

[Firn]

At least Italy send only a 'ndrangheta buddy honestly interested in the money or Russian asylum. Germany came up with two useful ideological idiots who seem to really believe their drivel.

Bloomberg TV got a knowledgable interviewee, he pretty much confirmed what was mentioned earlier in the thread. The Russian budget and the trade facts were quite revealing even without in-depth knowledge.

Putins mate Schroeder sold himself dearly on North Stream, he must be a most popular man in the Baltics.

And yes Merkel sounded surprisingly tough and there has been some actions in the 'defense' business.

[JMA]

Firn--Merkel's speech today in Parliament before she left for Brussels was a hardening in her tone---

my emphasis

Surely we are a long way past the need for a change in tone but rather in need of some action?

But good for her and Germany for showing more balls than contained in the current White House.

Before the focus on gutlessness stays only on Obama we need to remember that George Bush's bottle went with the Georgia crisis back in 2008 which sent a message to Russia. The Russians can be forgiven for interpreting the continued US draw down of troops in Europe as a withdrawal to avoid confrontation.

[JMA]

Russia’s moves in Ukraine are ‘wake-up call,’ NATO’s Rasmussen says in speech

“We live in a different world than we did less than a month ago,” Rasmussen said in a previously scheduled Brookings Institution speech that was adjusted to reflect a sudden crisis that he called Europe’s “gravest threat . . . since the end of the Cold War.”

No true... it is just that some were delusional.

Fire this guy... now.