Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[davidbfpo]

Mirhond,

I asked a simple question:

My question would be simple. Would the Russian Army tolerate such obstruction, whilst on official movement?

You replied just:

I suppose it will not, but I fail to see why it's relevant.

Then you referred to an unknown website which gave some guidance on asking questions, which did not help me. Ah well.

The relevance of the short film clip is that in this crisis legitimacy is a prominent issue. That is why you used it to illustrate your point about some in the Ukraine disputing the troop movement and the "running over" of a protester as how harsh the new government was.

If you cannot see the relevance of my question having given us the footage, well that is your problem, not mine.

[mirhond]

Mirhond,

The relevance of the short film clip is that in this crisis legitimacy is a prominent issue. That is why you used it to illustrate your point about some in the Ukraine disputing the troop movement and the "running over" of a protester as how harsh the new government was.
If you cannot see the relevance of my question having given us the footage, well that is your problem, not mine.

OK, stupid me.
Honestly, I dont think that new government has a power to be harsh. Right now Yatzenuk is trying to sweet-talk the South-East

https://www.youtube.com/watch?featur...&v=QvPLnhNJcZs

His major points are:
1. Ukraine is under pressure
2. governance will be decentralised, wide autonomy of regions will be implemented
3. Language law stays the same
4. Political, but not economicall association with EU, to soothe the fears of industrial East
5. Good relations with Russia, no NATO, "Ukraine strong" *countryball needed*
6. Parliamentary-presidential republic based on consensus of regions
7. Yanukovich - traitor and thief. Maidan rebelled against dictatorship and corruption
8. Disarmament of street warriors, they are welcome to National Guard
9. Reconsiliation and reconstruction of the country, patience and calm
10. Diversity of beliefs and values is good, East will not be low-level formatted.

If it is a reall political program, not just bull$hit to by some time - well, Ukraine has a good chance to recover and even prosper in a foreseeable future.

[carl]

Mirhond(s):

Time for your daily grade.

You are still mixing up your writers, going from the bad English writer to the very good English writer. I told you why that doesn't work on this site but you still do it. Point off for you.

You are also sticking to the 'fallacy' game plan that you guys came up with a few days ago. I told you why that doesn't work either but you still do it. Another point off for you. I do have some sympathy for you on that one though. Both the Germans and the Afghans commented on how the Russians would stick to a briefed plan even if was obvious to one and all that is wasn't working. I read of one reporter who was traveling with a Muj Toyota convoy in the 80s and they saw some Russian helos working over a village just a few klicks away. The reporter told the Afghans the helo pilots must be able to see them asked why they didn't attack an obvious Muj supply column. The Afghan replied that yes the Russian pilots did see them but they had been briefed to hit that village and that was what they were going to do no matter how many Muj supply columns they saw. I guess things haven't changed much.

You guys apparently got concerned that people weren't paying as much attention to you as you wanted so you started cluttering up the place with pictures of cats. That shows a lack of patience. A little bit desperate. Another point off for you.

You are sticking with the 'Nazi' slogans, repeated and repeated. That won't work around here, but that's what you were told to do so do it you will. Another point off.

Your primary problem is the same as it has been. You guys aren't adapting your message to your audience. Your approach would work with callow college kids, especially Ivy Leaguers, but the guys here have actually seen and done things, lots more than the college kids. You guys have to tailor you're message to the audience but you can't seem to make the transition. Those Russian helo pilots again I guess. Still, another point off for you.

So not so good in the last day. It is hard I know. The siloviki don't give you minions much to work with but you guys used to be good back in the old days. Geesh your Chekist ancestors used to run a good cover for Stalin of all people. You have to try harder. You're being lazy.

One thing you said though was quite revealing. This

Good idea from the first glance, but in the long run, when virtually all who are already considering to migrate, leave the country, Putin&Co will get society dominated with die-hard supporters. When they finally figure out that their cause is lost, the'll nuke you, and I'am only half unseriuos.

Fascinating. Fascinating in that it is a statement of the primary belief of the siloviki and their servants, the belief in and the genuflection before force, force over all other things. Nothing that surprises this audience of course, but it is surprising that you would be so up front with it.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond----

1. you are not Russian as you cannot even remember the good old communist jokes even though you claim to be born in 1978 which made you what 17 in 1995 and you never did answer the direct statement that you were a Communist Youth member as most of your generation were in 1995---heck a Russian COL told me last July about the KGB saying that you cannot seem to remember and the last time I checked he was Russian

BY THE WAY------I AM TAKING UP YOUR VERY OWN SUGGESTION ---SEND A COPY OF YOUR RUSSIAN ID TO ACTUALLY PROVE YOU ARE IN FACT RUSSIAN ---REALLY EASY---I MEAN IF YOU CAN POST A LARGE CAT PHOTO YOUR SMALL ID FITTING IN THIS SPACE IS NO PROBLEM

2. your English is actually poor to slightly understandable at times---really where did you learn it?

3. you are seemingly in love with your own comments and I am not sure you can read your own written English since you seem to need photos to help your writing--actually an indication that you write poorly as photos take up more space so less words are needed in writing---just post a photo and one thus does not need to respond to direct questions---again an easy way to sidestep which you have admitted you often do in previous postings

4. for some strange reason you love the love "fallacy"---must be the way the English word sounds as it rolls off your tongue or maybe the way it is written--whatever---you definitely have a hang up with that word--not sure who came up with that idea for an argument

5. you are in love with Nazi's or at least with the word Nazi as you seem to not be able to shake them/or the word out of your mind--- but again since Stalin that has been a standard line from Communists when they cannot figure out what else to say or argue with---blame someone else is I guess a strategy

6. some how you got lost in WW2 and never seemed to recover--what is it with your generation?

Would suggest to others here to back out as this as this individual seems totally hung up on whatever he is hung up on---just a waste of time as he seems to not even understand himself much less the rest of the world.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---really did like the cat photo since it was wearing the same colors---red/white/blue as used in the US national flag=== Nice touch------you do have a sense of justice after all.

Did not know that Russia liked our colors so much they incorporated them into their national flag---they do say copying is the greatest form of flattery.

Very patriotic of you to post the US national colors during the new Cold War that Putin somehow managed to restart but hey he was KGB and is still dreaming of the "greater SU" although the new Russian colors do not quite match the old two colors of red and yellow.

[Stan]

This entire region, depending on age and level of naiveté, manages to come up with the same Bravo Sierra as either an excuse to leave their sovereign State, defend against one another, or vote for yet another referendum.

Been there, done that. Doesn't work

The parties from left to right and center segregate themselves as Nazis and Russian despite the fact neither was ever in those camps.

When a 4th of Estonia wanted to join Russia however, the entire government decided that was not going to happen and the public supported that decision.

We all seem to have the right to self-destruction lately. Glad Im retired and freezing to death.

[OUTLAW 09]

Stan---good points---do not freeze too much.

[jmm99]

... citing a few links that caught my eye last nite and today ...

First, two articles (from yesterday) taking initial looks at "sanctions" (whatever they might end up to be) and Germany; from Spiegal OI, Economic War with Russia: A High Price for German Business:

The EU has imposed new sanctions to prevent Vladimir Putin from further escalating the crisis in Ukraine. Berlin has played a leading role in the punitive actions, despite protests from the German business community. There's no turning back for Merkel.
...
Germany has taken a leadership role in those efforts -- a role that Berlin has sought to claim for itself since the early days of the unrest in Kiev. At the beginning of the year, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier pledged that Germany would become more active in its foreign policy, and the current initiative is one manifestation of that aspiration.

But it is also becoming clear that those ambitions come with a price tag. Despite pressure from many European Union member states and the US, Steinmeier and Chancellor Angela Merkel initially managed to prevent swifter sanctions. They wanted to attempt to resolve the Crimean crisis through talks. The strategy ultimately failed because of Putin's intransigence.
...
In Berlin, all officials can do is guess at just how far Putin might be willing to go. Under the more optimistic assessment, the Russian president might offer a diplomatic olive branch following the annexation of Crimea to prevent a further escalation. However, high-ranking diplomats believe it is just as conceivable that Moscow might attempt to destabilize other regions like the Baltics or the Caucuses by using economic pressure or the presence of strong Russian minorities in countries in those places. It's a scenario for which the West still has no answer.

and from Motley Fool, A Sanctions War Is Bad News for Europe's Energy and Utility Majors:

As tensions between the West and Russia grow over the Crimean dispute, a series of harsh sanctions is expected to be imposed on Russia in the coming weeks. While most of the focus is on Russian government officials, it is also said to include travel bans for the well-connected CEOs of OAO Gazprom (NASDAQOTH: OGZPY) and OAO Rosneft.

Russian MPs aren't taking this lying down, and are threatening retaliatory sanctions against U.S. and European companies. The rest could well be a full-fledged sanction war, with t!t-for-tat sanctions spiralling out of control.
...
The bottom line

Neither BP nor Shell is facing a threat as near the immediacy or import as E.ON, whose very profitability might be at risk if things turn sour. BP's stock is a bargain on paper, with a P/E of around 6.5, though investors should keep a cautious eye on what happens with their Rosneft relations.

Shell's risk is even smaller, and it is well-positioned to take advantage of some other geopolitical situations, though with a price near its 52-week high, caution again is probably warranted, and panic selling on a sanctions war could provide a buying opportunity.

Gazprom remains the biggest bargain of the bunch, and even though it's the primary target of these sanctions, it is ironically in the least danger. Its gas empire is simply irreplaceable to the global economy, and with a P/E around 2 after the recent sell-off, it is just ridiculously cheap.

So, buy Gazprom !

---------------------------------------------------------------
Moving from economics to law ... My comment, when Ashley Deeks first wrote of the Ukraine and IL and she received the "Russian" response, was "So What". In short, IL doesn't matter very much in these cases - and the Cheka law departments do a much better job of agitprop co-ordination than we USAian amateurs might even dream of doing.

One might as well simply go to the bottom tag lines - BLUF (as viewed by the US): legal and legitimate (Panama); illegal but legitimate (Kosovo); illegal and illegitimate (Crimea). But then we have this classic line from Sergei Lavrov: “If Kosovo is a special case, then Crimea is a special case; it’s just equally special.” (Youtube @ 10:00). Lest you think that I think that all of this is a bit farcical - yes, I do.

Our friend Jack Goldsmith from Lawfare appears to be leaning toward my direction, The Precedential Value of the Kosovo Non-Precedent Precedent for Crimea (by Jack Goldsmith, March 17, 2014):

What to make of all this? There are many factual differences between Kosovo and Crimea, but I find it hard to argue that Kosovo is obviously lawful while Crimea is obviously unlawful. By choosing the “illegal and illegitimate” formulation and inviting the comparison to at least the Kosovo intervention, the European bigwigs seem to agree. International law drops out because both actions were illegal, leaving only a fight over “legitimacy,” which is even more in the eye of the beholder than legality.

One might add that the question of independence turns less on the legality or legitimacy of the independence claim, and more on the interests of the nations deciding whether to recognize, which are all that matter in the end.

One might also view these events as further evidence of my (somewhat obvious) claim [JMM: I, never to miss the obvious, agreed with Jack on Syria] that “the precedential value of an action under international law cannot be established at the time of the action, but rather is determined by how the action is interpreted and used in the future.”

Or one might go further and, perhaps after a glance at the U.S. invasion of Panama (to take one of many possible examples), say that precedent (as well as non-precedent and non-precedent precedent) plays no consequential role in the use of force context. [emphasis added by JMM]

Jack's "glance" link is to DocEx's, The Yanukovych Letter: Is Russia in Ukraine Really Becoming the U.S. in Panama? (4 Mar 2014) (snip to another analysis, by Eric Posner, pretty much agreeing with me in its point 2):

There are, of course, arguments that could arguably distinguish Panama from Ukraine that I will leave others to identify. I think in both cases, Eric Posner's succinct two-point analysis on Ukraine is on point: "1. Russia's military intervention in Ukraine violates international law" (as the U.N. General Assembly found the U.S. intervention in Panama did) and "2. No one is going to do anything about it." (As no one did with Panama in 1989).

DocEx is a project by Doug Cox, a law school librarian and former intel officer - which may have what you are looking for in the small wars intel arena.

Enough lunch for now.

Regards

Mike

[Firn]

So, buy Gazprom !

Markets tend to be efficient even if from time to time they are subject to moody swings. In this case the very low P/E of Gazprom, indeed of the whole Russian stocks universe, begs the question of how much of that E does actually belong to you. That fat question mark explains much of the risk premium which Russian securities suffer...

A great thing about capitalism is that I'm not forced to buy Russian stocks, and can chose among an amazing amount of options, some of them which will hopefully give my a higher return in the long run. Much Russian capital has voted in similar fashion, fleeing from Russia to find a home in the West.