Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[JMA]

Now I am learning something.

So if you are short of cash or risk losing deposits and don't have troops in the area you can just laugh off the agreement?

JMA--it has been all about the money===especially the UK which is the home of mega billions in black money from Russian oligarchs.

The US simply because there is no US military left in Europe---

[jmm99]

The bottom line is Art. 6:

6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.

Those parties have consulted (last Friday) - commitment met.

Another "Agreement" - Art. 4 and Art. 5 of NATO:

Article 4

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

As any rookie contract student should be able to tell you - these are illusory contracts; and were intended to be so from the gitgo.

Regards

Mike

[jcustis]

Good points Mike. Just reality.

[jcustis]

A Ukrainian Army element is escorting a press pool through a Ukraine/Crimea border area and comes across a pro-Russian militia element that has drifted across the border for some unknown reason.

The expected standoff escalates to a firefight, leaving seven militiamen dead and two Ukrainian soldiers wounded. The militia force falls back into Crimea and Ukrainian forces pursue.

A Russian SOF element hears the dustup and vectors to the area. The militiamen make visual and radio contact with the element, and break contact past its hasty position. The SOF unit suppresses the Ukrainian pursuit force, killing several.

In thr confusion, Ukrainian Army sources start reporting that a Russian unit has breached the border to attack a lightly-armed security unit. The entirety of Ukrainian military forces mobilize, with several formations making for the border at breakneck speed.

Russian forces move from high alert and begin occupying key terrain on the border. Cross-border firefights begin to flare up and a rifle company is lifted by heliborne means across the border to seize a road tunnel on the Ukrainian side, thereby cutting off that avenue of approach.

NATO shifts to emergency sessions and places forces on alert, but a consensus on a response is mired in uncertainty and worry. The US places various fighter and bomber squadrons on alert.

President Obama condems the outbreak of fighting and pledges that America will stand with Ukraine against "this blatant aggression."

Five minutes later, Putin addresses Russian TV, looks squarely into the camera and states that friends of Ukraine can only be enemies of Russia.

What happens across the next 24-96 hours?

How does it end?

[carl]

The US, France, Germany and the UK have a combined GDP of about 24 trillion. Russia's is 2 point something. Yet we wring our hands and moan about all the things we can't do when we have twelve times the economic resources. What clowns we are. So sad. Unsuspecting 10 year olds are on a playground right now, ignorant that we are signing their death warrants by our inaction.

[carl]

jcustis:

Nothing would happen. An unspoken premise is wrong in your scenario. No matter what Mr. Obama says, he will not stand by anybody, anytime. He knows it. Everybody knows it.

[JMA]

illusory maybe ... like the US behaving - verbally - as if anyone is still listening?

The bottom line is Art. 6:



Those parties have consulted (last Friday) - commitment met.

Another "Agreement" - Art. 4 and Art. 5 of NATO:



As any rookie contract student should be able to tell you - these are illusory contracts; and were intended to be so from the gitgo.

Regards

Mike

[OUTLAW 09]

JMA---basically yes------

When the US decision makers in the last ten or so years decided to go to soft power ie diplomacy and away from military force they forgot that at times unless you are really super serious about economic warfare as a middle option in soft power then you are in a serious jam when you get called out as has Putin done.

At the beginning of this Germany pushed for talking and the none use of the military threat out of fear of it escalating---which in the end failed and it has escalated.

So now what do you have left to impress anyone with?

There is a possibility mentioned last night by a Russian businessman that if in fact the western banks limited and or shortened the lines of credit that the Russian companies literally live on then in a rather short fashion their economy would come to a stand still---right now Russian companies must service existing western bank debt due in April of over 206B and they are struggling to keep from declaring bankruptcy.

The Russia economy is struggling and may in fact have zero growth this year and is in a deep recession and it would not take much to tilt it over the edge and for all the bluster coming out of Moscow---they indeed know that.

But is the West truly willing to stand up for what they signed---really do not think so---this reminds of the slide into 1914 or even worse the "fake war" in 1939 when the UK/France had signed agreements defending Poland and what did they initially do?

I have talking about the failure of this concept of soft power over on the other side from the very beginning of this and called it exactly has it has happened.

[Stan]

Now I am learning something.

So if you are short of cash or risk losing deposits and don't have troops in the area you can just laugh off the agreement?

Hey Mark !

I wished it could sound better than you just put it, but the reality is just like you put it (well, almost).

Funding is driven by State and used by every Tom, Dick and Harry. We, the military can ask and justify all we want. But, no cash, no troops, no deal.

Reality (see link above).

Regards, Stan

[jmm99]

should have been laughed off when it was (they were) made.

But, that is not the Athenian Way, is it ?

Regards

Mike

[jmm99]

@Outlaw
JMM--nice news today in Europe--looks like the US is finding their thinking again ---there will be a large land maneuver with substantial US troops on the ground in the Baltics in the coming days---clear message is now what does it feel like when equals are across from each other.

I read VP Biden's lofty rhetoric as carried on the AP wire yesterday; e.g., Pushing back on Russia, Biden vows more sanctions (by JOSH LEDERMAN,
Associated Press; Published: Tuesday, Mar. 18, 2014 - 10:04 am; Last Modified: Tuesday, Mar. 18, 2014 - 10:47 am) (emphasis added):

WARSAW, Poland -- Denouncing Russia's actions in Crimea as "nothing more than a land grab," Vice President Joe Biden warned Russia on Tuesday that the U.S. and Europe will impose further sanctions as Moscow moved to annex part of Ukraine.

With limited options, the United States was seeking ways to show it won't stand idly by as Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty for the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea to join Russia. So far, Putin has been undeterred by sanctions and visa bans levied by the U.S. and the European Union, and there's no U.S. appetite for military intervention.

"Russia has offered a variety of arguments to justify what is nothing more than a land grab, including what he said today," Biden said in Poland, which shares a border with both Russia and Ukraine. "But the world has seen through Russia's actions and has rejected the flawed logic behind those actions."
...
In a clear warning to Moscow not to test other nations along its border, Biden said the U.S. commitment to defending its NATO allies is "ironclad." He promised more sanctions would be coming, along with new NATO training and exercises that will take place in Poland.

The vice president said the U.S. was considering rotating American forces to the Baltic region as a step toward ensuring the collective defense of NATO allies. Those forces could conduct ground and naval exercises, plus engage in training missions.

Or, were you speaking of real acts (which I missed) vs. rhetoric (which I didn't miss, but should have) - such as orders having been cut for 44 maneuver battalions to deploy to the Eastern Front. Do we still have 44 maneuver battalions ? You probably remember them from 1964.

It appears to me that some choices (for good or bad; and each person will have his own opinion as to those choices) have been made as to "the front". A US "Two Front" effort was well deceased by 2009, when Jim Cartwright was laconically honest about it; e.g., Pentagon to Change Two-Front War-Fighting Strategy - Marine Gen. James Cartwright said the old two-war plan is extreme (by Paul Bedard, July 29, 2009, Washington Whispers):

The Pentagon's two-front war-fighting strategy is going the way of the battleship: to the junkyard. A recognition of shrinking budgets and the reality that World War II isn't likely to repeat itself, the emerging plan will be a big change for the military. Marine Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, got the buzz rolling this month when he suggested that the developing plan would be to have the capability to fight smaller wars like in Iraq and Afghanistan and only one with a major "peer competitor" like China or Russia. The old two-war plan he dubbed an "extreme."

I'll wait for acts (by both sides, as Firn suggests).

Regards

Mike

[Stan]

Hey Mike,

Sounds a bit like saber rattling like we do every year in Korea under the guise of annual training.

The skies over the Baltic States have always had fighters from just about every NATO nation patrolling. Nothing new, just a ton of jet A1

The Baltic States have and continue to invite and create a NATO base. Hasn't happened in spite of massive reconstruction projects.

Mr. Biden says those forces could conduct ground and naval exercises and engage in training missions.

Hmmm, we already do and have done so since 95

Bravo Sierra !

Regards, Stan

[carl]

Boy do I get tired of hearing about how limited the options for the US are.
Here are some from the top of my head, large numbers of which come from Firn and Outlaw 09.

1. Tell the Poles and the Czechs the missile defense system is back on.

2. Put an entire squadron of F-22s and supporting tankers in Poland next week, permanently. EF-18s too.

3. Rescind landing rights for any Russian airplanes in the US. Stop all flights originating in the US that go into Russia.

4. All visas for entry into the US for all Russians will be stopped. None will be renewed.

4a. Exception to above. Any Russian who has a doctorate in a hard science, engineering, has very extensive experience in those fields or is a physician, will get an automatic green card upon application for one and $40,000 to help them relocate in the US.

5. Start shipping as many ATGMs to the Ukraine as you can put on anything that floats or flies, even the Dragons if they are still around.

6. Do the same thing with any SA-18s we can get hold of. And do the same thing with any of the Libyan SA-24s that we may have picked up.

7. Tell Boeing no more spare parts for aircraft are to be shipped to Russia. Same thing for the engine and avionics makers.

8. Freeze all Russian assets in the US.

9. Put an obvious close tail on every single Russian naval vessel at sea every minute they are at sea.

10. We had better have some intel on how much money Putin himself has overseas and where it is for all the money we spend on intel. Publish it.

11. Tell the oil companies to bring all their guys in Russia home.

12. Tell the oil companies that if they want to apply for a LNG export terminal tomorrow, the approval will come next week.

13. We have M-1 tanks surplus to our needs, maybe Poland and Ukraine would like some.

And on and on. These are things that we can do on our own without the west Europeans. Firn would know of various financial things that we can do on our own. The point is there are a lot of things we can do, if the genii Athenians inside the beltway stop talking themselves into helplessness.

This is very worrying to me. We have three more years of this administration and if they don't stop shoveling they may dig a hole for us so deep we may not get out.

[jmm99]

1. Any or all of the acts you suggest would be better than lofty rhetoric - if no acts are really intended, then our Beltway should STFU.

2. Your suggestions beg the question of which EU-NATO states are willing to step up to the military plate - are there any; and, if so, how far are they willing to go ?

3. To what extent does the US provide "matching assets" ? I'd suggest that the EU-NATO inputs into Iraq and Afghanistan would be good precedents for the % of US involvement (a secondary effort, as EU-NATO has been in our two wars) to a European crisis (where EU-NATO should take the lead, not the US). They've helped us out in the very recent past; we should help them to the same extent - reciprocity !

4. If EU-NATO is up to the task of confronting Putin-Ivanov, then it will gain its spurs - perhaps, it then could become the pre-eminent hegemonic power. If it is not up to that task (not taking on the task is the same thing) using primarily its own power and methods, then that is a good thing for Americans to know.

5. I'm willing to be patient and let the EU-NATO hand play out (as Firn suggests). I'd as soon not hear our politicians talk up all the bad things they are going to do to Vlad and his Russkies.

Regards

Mike

PS: here's one for you, Carl - a daymare - three more years + 8 of Billary !!

I also realize that patience is difficult in the face of headlines such as this, Calls to escalate Russia sanctions leave EU in a quandary (by Luke Baker, BRUSSELS Mar 18, 2014):

(Reuters) - Mocked by Moscow, the European Union needs to impose far tougher sanctions over Crimea to make President Vladimir Putin sit up and pay attention, but its ability to agree them is limited - and consensus may not be achievable at all.
...
Some EU foreign ministers quietly agree and are frustrated. They wanted harder-hitting sanctions, but EU restrictions have to be agreed unanimously, which means the measures are only as strong as the country with the deepest reservations will allow.

Austria is among the doubters. "Sanctions don't solve problems," said Chancellor Werner Faymann. "The solution can only be getting to negotiations." ... (much more "quandaries" in story)

[OUTLAW 09]

JMM---story indicates a joint Army/Marine unit coming in for an exercise and training of Baltic troops.

Do not think it is just talk.

Interesting the way they are using the exercise excuse thus one level below a threat---knowing though how it will be interpreted.

This came in via the NYT: "A Ukrainian official also says the country will hold joint military exercises with the U.S. and Britain."

This is far deeper as the Russian military is matching if not expanding their reactions---they are flexing their muscles as a show of strength befitting a superpower---at least in their eyes and that makes this a far more complicated thing than just a "cold war" thing.

In some aspects they are showing us their complete rebuilding is finished and they can match us in ways we did not estimate they could as IMO intel wise we lost them in the last 12 years of chasing jihadi's.

There is more to Putin's physic makeup that they are paying attention to ---would really recommend reading the English or if one speaks Russian (that is better as it catches the reflections/intonations of the language) that gives a lot of insight to what triggered his actions.

That is what they are paying attention to-----IMO they initially misread him even if Bush claimed "he looked him in the eyes" ......

What worries me is the simple fact that the intel community both in the US and in Europe totally missed this thing as it was building---so much for Pearl Harbor and the creation of an intel team called Indications and Warnings.

[jmm99]

JMM---story indicates a joint Army/Marine unit coming in for an exercise and training of Baltic troops.

Do not think it is just talk.

I won't; because without a link I don't know if it is anything at all.

Regards

Mike

[carl]

Mike:

I don't quite understand your point 3.

I think we could do quite a lot without the EU and with only some NATO members, Poland, the Czechs, the Baltic countries and maybe some others who were occupied by the Red friends. They understand very wel what all this means.

If the EU and NATO as a whole get their act together, great; but we can do a whole lot of things in the meantime or without them altogether.

Of course, no matter what fine courses of action we can come up with, the final say is had by Mr. & Mrs. Obama, Valerie Jarret and their pulsilaminous but very concerned crew.

They used to say God took care of drunks and the United States. Maybe he hasn't run out of patience with drunks.

[jmm99]

from Helsingin Sanomat, Putin knows the Finns well enough, but do any of us really know him? (by Anu Nousiainen; first published in print 9.1.2000):

The memories differ a little on the precise date of the big match, but it was sometime early in 1994: in the indoor soccer hall at Turku's Impivaara, the two teams warmed up for the fixture between the Bishop's Boys and Petersburg City. A fairly motley crew of footballers of various ages, waistlines, and levels of fitness trotted out onto the artificial grass. The Petersburg side in particular looked somewhat less than professional in their borrowed shirts (mind you, they were borrowed from a Finnish league side) and several appeared to be playing in trainers. Someone even had a pair of jeans on.

The Bishop's Boys under their captain Archbishop John Vikstrom, who could have been a contender but for his vocation, were not out to thrash the opposition, and strolled to a leisurely and polite 2-1 victory over the visitors. And why are we talking football here? Simply because among the eleven Petersburg players was one Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Apparently he was one of the ones with proper soccer shoes. ... (much more in article)

and, Who remembers 2nd Secretary Ivanov? - The Russian First Deputy Prime Minister spent six years in Helsinki in the 1980s (by Heikki Hellman; first published in print 1.4.2007):

...
In the 1980s, Sergei Ivanov lived in Helsinki, working under the title of a 3rd (and later 2nd) Secretary at the Soviet Embassy in the capital.

Over a period of nearly six years he thoroughly familiarised himself with Finland and met a great many Finnish politicians, businessmen, and university people.

For many Finns active at that time, he is simply Sergei. That old acquaintance of theirs who - before he acquired ministerial status some years ago - might call them up in their Moscow hotel room with a cheery: "Hi! It's Sergei."

Perhaps we ought to back up a little way and consider regarding Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov as a kind of "Finnish champion", too, on the strength of how much he knows about Finland and the Finns.

But what do the Finns know of him?

Who recalls Comrade Ivanov from those days?

The surprising thing is that while many remember Sergei Ivanov, there is very little to be said about him. ... (much more in story).

So, the extroverted cold fish and the introverted cold fish.

Regards

Mike