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  1. #1
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    For those that have been writing here ----there has been totally missed in some or most of the comments---what are we in fact seeing now in the Crimea, eastern/southern Ukraine and with developments from today in Latvia and Russian attack helicopter flight training on the Estonian border---nothing more nor less than a new Russian UW strategy in a political warfare environment. We also have to mix in criminal elements and the oligarchs to get a better picture.

    The following links were taken as I have stated a number of times from often overlooked websites and the "tip" on one led to the two links which are extremely critical in understanding what the Russians are calling New Generation Warfare broken into Phases. and how the US/EU/NATO are not even in the same game or on the same playing field.

    Now take the Phases and overlay them on the hour to hour events in the Crimea, eastern and southern Ukraine and now with Lativa and one sees the relationship to their new strategy on winning a peace without going to war---or rather a Russian Sun Tzu approach.

    Actually a number of posts here have been dancing around various Phases of the New Generation Warfare.

    This is from the SWJ other side---Why Does Special Forces Train and Educate for Unconventional Warfare?

    David---this link goes to what you have been writing about having a UW strategy and in the light on the Ukraine events, the cancelling of the Russian/Lithuanian Confidence Building treaty, and the new Russian Attack Helicopter Bde flight exercises along the Estonian border.

    http://www.lithuaniatribune.com/6757...y-for-russias-...

    The article goes to heart of the new Russian strategy referred to as the New Generation Warfare.

    There is a 15 page pdf explaining the current Russian doctrine in this new UW strategy.

    http://is.gd/berzins


    Thanks Outlaw 09.

    One of our students from Finland passed this on to me last week and it is getting a lot of press.

    A very timely and informative (and I think potentially very important) report from the Latvia - the National Defence Academy of Latvia and the Center for Security and Strategic Research.

    The PDF of the report can be downloaded at this link: http://www.naa.mil.lv/~/media/NAA/AZ...2002-2014.ashx
    Note the excerpted figure one below for the assessment of Russia's view of the changing character of armed conflict. Also of note below that are the eight phases of the new generation of war.

    I think this is a good analysis of the Russian version of unconventional and political warfare and we should study this so that we can develop the strategy to counter these forms of unconventional warfare and political warfare.

    David---now take the Phases and one can overlay them on the exact hour by hour events in the Crimea, eastern and southern Ukraine and then watch the entire information operations unfold, the use of irregulars on the ground reinforced by intelligence officers and Spretnaz coupled with the Russian public political maneuvering ie 21 Feb agreement, Geneva, and Putin calls to US/EU leaders which really led nowhere but gained time and you have the perfect learning module for why one needs now a national level strategic UW strategy in order to counter political warfare or in this case what the Russians are calling New Generation Warfare.

    And along the way do not forget the use of criminal elements and the oligarchs as part of the concept layered over by an ideology called ethnic nationalism.

    Then watch our responses which have not even begun to answer the individual Phases the Russians are running through in a steady fashion---worth a doctorial thesis.

    Question is what would Lind call it --4th or 5th generation warfare as it is a quantum leap forward and a leap we as a Force are not prepared (including senior military leadership/WH) for as we have gone in an entirely different direction misguided by COIN.

    Robert might have some interesting comments on this as it drifts into his comments on war and peace---actually the Russian concept is to avoid war and gain peace as they define peace---they are as close to Sun Tzu as one can get in their thinking.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 05-05-2014 at 09:44 PM.

  2. #2
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Russian attack helicopter flight training on the Estonian border-
    The Estonian press and MOD are not taking this current and past trend very seriously. Why should they... We see it every year and coincidentally with an increase in aircraft and paratroopers.

    Note to Outlaw: This could be considered the worst intel link known to man, but, sadly, most Estonian youth actually read it and believe it too.

    However, the MOD statements are real.

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    Russia Bound to Win Its Proxy War in Ukraine
    By Alexander GoltsMay. 05 2014 22:34 Last edited 22:34

    It seems that Kiev is much to blame for the Ukrainian crisis in general. At the same time, however, it is a pardonable mistake. After Russia annexed Crimea and pro-Russian separatists seized one city after another, the public demanded that Ukrainian leaders take decisive action to try to control the chaos. But in recent decades, leaders everywhere have failed to achieve victory against paramilitary forces that use civilians as human shields.
    Objectively speaking, Russia is waging a proxy war in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine that it is bound to win. While Moscow flatly denies any meddling in Ukraine, the facts speak otherwise. Several Ukrainian Army helicopters were recently shot down near Slovyansk by man-portable air-defense systems, or MANPADS. These weapons are not stored in police stations or even Ukrainian security service offices, meaning that the insurgents could not have seized them locally. What's more, it takes considerable skill to operate a MANPAD. The most likely explanation is that these weapons were brought in by units of Russia's special forces.
    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...ne/499534.html

    Look at this launch. Nice filming position. Reminds me camera work from Iraq. Before launch guy, who films says "Davai!" which means "go". Text says that tape was given to Russian daily "Komsomolskaya Pravda" journalists.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h4LjkTFGNeg

    This FSB guy Strelkov has brought Chechen insurgents know how to Eastern Ukraine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Russia Bound to Win Its Proxy War in Ukraine
    By Alexander GoltsMay. 05 2014 22:34 Last edited 22:34
    Of course they will... the US has already 'run away' and the EU is pretending its nothing to worry about.

    All acording to plan.

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    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    'We're Not Laughing Anymore,' Says EU Commissioner On Relations With Russia

    The European Union's enlargement commissioner, Stefan Fuele, says the EU has contributed to the current conflict in Ukraine by "failing" to understand Russian President Vladimir Putin's past statements about the legacy of the U.S.S.R.

    But first, he acknowledged, the 28 EU member-states must put aside their own internal differences and find common cause in engaging constructively with Russia. A number of European members -- including Germany, the Mediterranean states, Hungary, and Finland -- are seen as putting economic ties with Russia ahead of a unified EU front.
    More at the link and videos too
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    Following youtube links are in Russian.

    Ukrainian SBU claims that they have got phone call between Donetsk self defence forces and Russian fascist Barkashov, where Barkashov gives intructions about referendum in Donetsk. "No federalisation, just Donets Respublic"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xeCWGxGVUk

    Look at this video, where Barkashov tells about 1993 white house attack, where at 0:45 you can see faschist greeting by troops. Text about motives are interesting, but I don't have time to translate

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlG86r2uasM
    Last edited by kaur; 05-07-2014 at 11:26 AM.

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    I wondered already how long it would take till both sides accuse each other of being in cahoots with fascists...

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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Following youtube links are in Russian.

    Ukrainian SBU claims that they have got phone call between Donetsk self defence forces and Russian fascist Barkashov, where Barkashov gives intructions about referendum in Donetsk. "No federalisation, just Donets Respublic"
    Aww, how sweet, old warhorse Barkashov, uheard and unseen along with his RNE for 20 years, is now in action again. Well, Kremlin shows mad skillz in political assets management

    Meanwhile in Mariupol

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSWwAPsO3Q0

    Translation from 3:00
    Soldier: Mr Yatzenuk &Co. thanks a lot for 1300 Hr(about 110 $) two months wage. Wish you everything I've heard from my brothers and systers here and in Kiev. I am ashamed. Think of it, we may turn the column against you.

    Guys are little bit nervous, public doesn't show respect.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=XMvhQRPYPEA
    Last edited by mirhond; 05-09-2014 at 01:55 PM.
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