Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[mirhond]

obamas-plan-to-let-putin-hang-himself-is-working

Poor Putin, have mercy on him! ^_^
He'll actually get out of this mess with some political advantages like wide popular support for Crimean Anschluss, several thousands fighters ready for a new campaign and the most important - all the brotherly Soviet-stile sentimental feelings about Ukraine are gone for good.

[Firn]

He'll actually get out of this mess with some political advantages like wide popular support for Crimean Anschluss, several thousands fighters ready for a new campaign and the most important - all the brotherly Soviet-stile sentimental feelings about Ukraine are gone for good.

Well stated. Putin has indeed quite successful at putting his personal short term goals above the long term interests of Russia and it's population. Kudos to him.

[kaur]

What a nice show! Russian high flying theatre director Kurginjan is visiting Donetsk and his only plan seems to be undremining Strelkovs authority. For backround, Kurginjan was one of the antiorange pro-Putin movement high ranking activists when Putin was reelected 2012.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-16885446
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1q-h1O_mgI

Today he had hot discussion with DNR activist Gubarev (that Barkashov and Dugin follower) and DNR head of military staff. Kurginjan told about arms from Russia. He said sorry, that arms were old, but promised newer ATGM-s and MANPADS. DNR guys first denied Russian arms shipments, but later said that Slovyansk defenders got only 3 tanks and 3 BMP-s. Head of staff complained that ATGM missiles were old (should be disposed already 2001) and only 1 rocket from 4 worked. Gubarev added that some units are armed to the teeth with Russian arms, but they refuse to fight (???).

Russian arms part starts at 16:30 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNKV-zzcW9w

What is going on?!

[mirhond]

Well stated. Putin has indeed quite successful at putting his personal short term goals above the long term interests of Russia and it's population.Kudos to him.

This statement doesn't belong to this thread, because it's not an agrument for

plan-to-let-putin-hang-himself-is-working

if you have your own vision of the long term interests of Russia and it's population you are wellcome to the neighbouring thread, I'd like to read a comprehensive post from you.

Outlaw, what part of the phrase "I don't read your posts" you don't understand? If your posts contain something useful to other readers, appeal to the public and stop using my codename. I won't answer to you, because a really don't read your posts.

[OUTLAW 09]

This statement doesn't belong to this thread, because it's not an agrument for
if you have your own vision of the long term interests of Russia and it's population you are wellcome to the neighbouring thread, I'd like to read a comprehensive post from you.

Outlaw, what part of the phrase "I don't read your posts" you don't understand? If your posts contain something useful to other readers, appeal to the public and stop using my codename. I won't answer to you, because a really don't read your posts.

my ----mirhond a little sensitive are we?

ProRussians losing in the Ukraine, Crimean farmers not getting the promised support from Putin, Russian Passports issued in the Crimea not being valid because someone forgot to stamp and sign them, the Russian economy in a tailspin, Russian citizen arrested for being a wanted criminal hacker whose mother is a big Duma person?

AND---no budget for the Crimea-and food price increases of over 80%-wow what a victory for the proRussians in the Crimea-so it looks like Russia is broke correct mirhond?

And moreover mirhond--neither you nor the Russian media are no longer using the terms fascists, Nazi's or junta when talking about the Ukraine---what happen there my friend?

So since when are you the blog specialist as to what should and or should not be written here in response to your somewhat misleading comments and or the lack of comments.

You still never did answer the question ---you claimed the T64s were Ukrainian but now proven to be Russian and yet you do not admit you were wrong.

All you do is throw the word fallacy around in some sentences in order to appear academic like which you are not---correct mirhond?

Just another paid blogger by the FSB trying to make a name for himself after Russia "loses" New Russia".

[BrentWilliams]

This statement doesn't belong to this thread, because it's not an agrument for
if you have your own vision of the long term interests of Russia and it's population you are wellcome to the neighbouring thread, I'd like to read a comprehensive post from you.

Outlaw, what part of the phrase "I don't read your posts" you don't understand? If your posts contain something useful to other readers, appeal to the public and stop using my codename. I won't answer to you, because a really don't read your posts.

I would pick a plan that doesn't cause young Russian's to leave, Russians to die early,and a future demographic time bomb.

[BrentWilliams]

Rather interesting article in the Washington Post. Ukraine seems to be continuing the ground offensive.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...6ed_story.html

Government troops were engaged in a pitched battle with rebels on Saturday just outside the separatist bastion of Donetsk and plan to advance next into the city that has been at the heart of the pro-Russian insurgency.

If the army succeeds in retaking Horlivka, a city of almost 300,000 people where fighting was fierce Saturday, they will be within a few miles of Donetsk. Rebels have held sway there since the spring, ruling what they call the Donetsk People’s Republic. Cars created roadblocks out of town Saturday, and the railway station was packed with people desperate to board the next train out.

It is looking increasenly likely that the Ukraine will succeed unless Russia directly intervenes on the ground. If they do, Europe and the United States is almost certain to respond with economic sanction that will cripple the Russian economy. The current outline of sanctions outlined after the Malaysian airlines flight would be vastly expanded. One would also think aid in weapons and training would be on the table. If Russia doesn't directly intervene, what is to stop the Ukraine from turing their attention to Crimea next?

[kaur]

Two interesting interceptions by SBU in Russian. In first one DPR leader Borodai is getting some instructions from former Russian presidentianl administration and United Russia party official Chesnakov. It seems that Borodai arrived from Russia with suitcases full of money and he asks for more. Chesnakov gives to Borodai instructions with what message should give interview Girkin/Strelkov ( Putin is Russkii Mir leader and i'm his subordinate). It seems that Chesnakov is back in administration with Surkov covering Ukraine. During second intercept Borodai's deputy is complaining how stupidly Girkin is acting in Donetsk.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GH-BdpHf7jg

[Shchors]

There have been few detailed descriptions in Western publications of the campaign by the Ukrainian Army to expel the Russian inspired separatists from East Ukraine. What first started in mid-April 2014 as a low level insurgency led by Russian GRU spetsnaz operatives that was centered in an urban bastion named Sloviansk, has since transformed into essentially a conventional war between 30,000 attacking Ukrainians against 10,000 defending Russians in an area 9,000 square miles in size, which encompasses numerous cities, one of them a one million plus metropolis - the City of Donetsk. From what I have been able to extrapolate from sketchy press releases from the Ukrainian armed forces and the more detailed but yet unverified situation reports from the Russian commanders, the Ukrainians, while tactically unsophisticated, have acquired enough combat experience to mount what, by all accounts is a rather elegant and nuanced campaign. The Ukrainians have initiated simultaneous battalion sized armored maneuvers on multiple fronts to spread out the defenders. The operation has also revealed attempts to control tempo and timing of sequential attacks. The Ukrainians also sent a brigade-sized mechanized column in a daring (and perhaps ill advised) flanking maneuver to try to seal off the Russian border. These troops are now trapped against the border for over two weeks but are still dug in and resupplied by parachute drop. (The Ukrainian Chief of the General Staff, General Muzychko, has decided to ignore the pleas of these troops for a relief offensive and has shifted reserves elsewhere) The Russians have proved to be the better infantry commanders (all are veterans of the Chechen Wars, Bosnia and Georgia) and have orchestrated a daring maneuver themselves when 1500 escaped from encirclement in Sloviansk at the very last moment. However, Ukrainian armor and artillery crews have gradually acquired competence and have buttressed their unreliable mech infantry with volunteer battalions, which make up for their lack of training with enthusiasm. (The mech infantry is comprised of recruits, while the specialists are contract soldiers) Throughout, the separatists have utilized state-of-the art MANPADS, with which they have downed some 10 attack helicopters and 6 attack warplanes. Despite the heavy losses, the small and outdated Ukrainian air force continues to fly 10-15 close air support sorties daily, with noticeable effect. Moreover, the Russians have used Kornet and Konkurs anti-tank missiles against Ukrainian tanks (upgraded old T-64s). The separatists have also acquired close to 100 T-64 and T-72 tanks themselves, with generous numbers of artillery and rockets, all smuggled over the border from Russia. As we all know, recently they even acquired BUK anti-air systems, with tragic results to passengers of Malaysian Airlines. Casualties so far amount to approximately 1,500 to 2,000 KIA and wounded on each side. As always, the big killer in the steppe is massed artillery. In fact, the Russians have fired artillery support from across the border. As of today, July 25, 2014, the Ukrainians appear to have turned the flank of a strong redoubt in Horlivka (which opens the way towards Donetsk from the north) and are close to seizing an important road junction at Debaltsevo, along a key supply line. All of these names would have been familiar to WWII era Red Army and Wehrmacht commanders, as bloody battles were fought to seize and to hold these locations in the Great Patriotic War. If Russia does not intervene directly or injects substantial irregular reinforcements soon (at least 5,000), the Ukrainians may have their first ever victorious campaign against Russia in history. (They won a few small battles in 1919 but never a war) One of the ironies of this entire struggle is that the people of Donetsk now realize that Putin never intended to liberate them and, to the contrary, has ruined their region economically for years to come. Ukraine looks like a better option and many are starting to see Kyiv as the lesser of two evils. Putin's adventures in Crimea and Donetsk have led to unintended consequences; (1) a Ukraine unified for the first time in its history, regardless of language (many of the Ukrainian fighters speak Russian; the orders in the Ukrainian army at the tactical level are issued in Russian);(2) the growth of national myths forged in a war with Russia that may develop into a true Ukrainian nationalism (and a break from Russia once and for all) and (3) disenchantment with Putin among nationalist voters in Russia proper (most of the blue collar population) which may threaten his hold on political power at the next election. There is some talk of Igor Strelkov, the Russian field commander in Donetsk, as a viable alternate candidate (unless Putin has him killed at the front). In any case, this war holds valuable lessons regarding the effectiveness of MANPADS against tactical air as well as the dynamics of a conventional war where neither side has air superiority. It offers a conflict involving urban warfare as well as broad mechanized maneuver and where artillery is still the king of battle.

[JMA]

Thanks Shchors, interesting perspective.

[mirhond]

separatists have also acquired close to 100 T-64 and T-72 tanks themselves, with generous numbers of artillery and rockets, all smuggled over the border from Russia.

if this document
isn't a fake, your statement is far from truth

in short: Ukrarmy lost dosens of combat vehicles and other military pieces to separatists

(1) a Ukraine unified for the first time in its history, regardless of language (many of the Ukrainian fighters speak Russian; the orders in the Ukrainian army at the tactical level are issued in Russian);(2) the growth of national myths forged in a war with Russia that may develop into a true Ukrainian nationalism (and a break from Russia once and for all)

I believe you just did'nt bothered to read Wikipedia article about Ukraine, that's why your post shows lack of historical knowledge.
In short: Ukraine once already was an independent state, for a short time after Russian revolution. Ukrainian exclusive nationalism has a long and glorious story.

зы. К чему эта маскировка под невежду, товарищ Щорс, вы же украинский коммунист и прекрасно знаете историю своей Родины, а так же всю ту хуиту, что происходит сейчас на Юго-Востоке

[AmericanPride]

It is looking increasenly likely that the Ukraine will succeed unless Russia directly intervenes on the ground. If they do, Europe and the United States is almost certain to respond with economic sanction that will cripple the Russian economy. The current outline of sanctions outlined after the Malaysian airlines flight would be vastly expanded. One would also think aid in weapons and training would be on the table. If Russia doesn't directly intervene, what is to stop the Ukraine from turing their attention to Crimea next?

That appears to be the case at the moment. The Ukrainian advance has proceeded surprisingly well given their initial poor performance at the outset of the conflict. I doubt Russia will intervene directly in the east - not out of fear of U.S. sanctions, but because of the uncertainty that lies in an open-ended conflict with Ukraine. Russia's most notable military successes since 1991 have been rapid, decisive campaigns with clearly defined political objectives. I don't think there's a clear political outcome that could emerge from Russian intervention in the east - the first sign of that was Moscow's refusal to extend annexation after the Donetsk referendum though it accepted the Crimean one. The Russians do not want to be involved any more than they have to be.

I also don't think the Ukrainians will push into Crimea. That's already occupied territory and formally annexed by Russia. Attacking Crimea would compel the Russians to further escalate the conflict to protect its own credibility and would give the pretext for the 30,000 Russian soldiers on Ukraine's border to come streaming across.

The resignation of the Yatsenyuk government is a clear indicator that even with military victory, Kiev still faces many internal challenges. Defeating the insurgents militarily will alone not solve Ukraine's fundamental political problem. Yatsenyuk claimed that the coalition collapsed because his allies did not want to take part in the painful political process of imposing austerity measures on the Ukrainian economy (especially in a time of insecurity). That's not a surprise, since the origin of this crisis in the first place was Yanukovych's inability (or unwillingness) to resolve that problem too.

[Firn]

I doubt Russia will intervene directly in the east - not out of fear of U.S. sanctions, but because of the uncertainty that lies in an open-ended conflict with Ukraine.

I actually agree mostly, but I want to ask: What is a direction Russian intervention in your opinion? What isn't open-ended to this war, with the Crimea occupied by Russia and Russian men and Russian weapons reinforcing Russias shadow armies lead by Russian veterans with it's limited local support while the Russian army shells Ukrainian forces from Russia proper?

I have a pretty hard time to draw a line...

@davidpfbo: There might also be considerable differences from city to city, area to area with the larger cities giving a better idea then the smaller ones in which extremes are more likely to be observed. All in all the local support for the shadowy Russian invasion isn't certainly as big as the Kremlin would have hoped. Weapons are certainly not the bottleneck.

@Shchors: Maybe you could open a new thread about the strictly military aspect of the conflict. This thread contains already so many strands. Thanks anyway.

[BrentWilliams]

That appears to be the case at the moment. The Ukrainian advance has proceeded surprisingly well given their initial poor performance at the outset of the conflict. I doubt Russia will intervene directly in the east - not out of fear of U.S. sanctions, but because of the uncertainty that lies in an open-ended conflict with Ukraine. Russia's most notable military successes since 1991 have been rapid, decisive campaigns with clearly defined political objectives. I don't think there's a clear political outcome that could emerge from Russian intervention in the east - the first sign of that was Moscow's refusal to extend annexation after the Donetsk referendum though it accepted the Crimean one. The Russians do not want to be involved any more than they have to be.

I also don't think the Ukrainians will push into Crimea. That's already occupied territory and formally annexed by Russia. Attacking Crimea would compel the Russians to further escalate the conflict to protect its own credibility and would give the pretext for the 30,000 Russian soldiers on Ukraine's border to come streaming across.

The resignation of the Yatsenyuk government is a clear indicator that even with military victory, Kiev still faces many internal challenges. Defeating the insurgents militarily will alone not solve Ukraine's fundamental political problem. Yatsenyuk claimed that the coalition collapsed because his allies did not want to take part in the painful political process of imposing austerity measures on the Ukrainian economy (especially in a time of insecurity). That's not a surprise, since the origin of this crisis in the first place was Yanukovych's inability (or unwillingness) to resolve that problem too.

If the only variable in the equation for Putin is the military variable, this is an easy win. It is very doubtful that the population in Eastern Ukraine would resist Russia directly taking control of the area. All things being equal, I doubt they would vote for it and would rather stay part of Ukraine, but if Russia moved decisively into eastern Ukraine, I doubt you are going to have much resistance from the local population.

Given that, what is constraining Russia from acting? It isn't an armed threat from the west. Again, I don't see the west directly becoming involved in the conflict. At the most, they could start to provide weapons and training. However, until Russia crosses a boarder with a NATO country, I couldn't imagine anything else.


I would suggest the one factor constraining Russia is that it is virtually dependent on the economy of Europe while Russia could only inflict some economic pain on Europe. Yes Russian energy is important. But it is also important for Russia to sell that energy and Europe is rich enough to allow the market to adjust to get energy from other places. Russia's biggest export partner by far is the European Union. If Europe gains the will to enact real sanctions, the Russian economy is destroyed. Europe will feel some pain but it won't last as the markets adjust.

We like to have these preconceived notions. We aren't doing anything, etc. I would suggest, in this situation, the United States perfectly doing what it should. Allow Putin to hang himself with his BS. Russia has every reason to fear real political will coming from Europe.

[OUTLAW 09]

Poor Putin, have mercy on him! ^_^
He'll actually get out of this mess with some political advantages like wide popular support for Crimean Anschluss, several thousands fighters ready for a new campaign and the most important - all the brotherly Soviet-stile sentimental feelings about Ukraine are gone for good.

mirhond--cannot believe you are still writing as I had heard Dugin has been replaced by Putin as a close advisor and the FSB has been told to stop their inforwar---noticed there has been no longer any terms such as Nazi and junta coming out of Moscow---wonder why?

mirhond---not so sure Putin has "won" anything as it appears that there is no money in the current Russian budget for the Crimea---wonder why?

http://inforesist.org/en/russia-chan...imea-no-money/

mirhond---also noticed that Russian employers are "asking" their employees to "donate" a days worth of earnings to support the Crimea----what happened no money in the Russian budget? Many so called Russian employees are complaining their wages are going down and are refusing to "donate"---not a good indicator of support for Putin and the Crimea if you ask me mirhond.

mirhond--the first Russian vacationers are back from their "subsidized" vacations in the Crimea and they "complained" about the poor service, bad hotels and poor food---what happened there mirhond?

mirhond---in the New York times from today there was a long article from Crimea farmers complaining the are getting little to no support from Russian which was "promised by Putin"---what happened there mirhond---again no money?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/08/wo...-hurdles.html?

so mirhond where is the "win"?

http://inforesist.org/sily-ato-obnar...d-slavyanskom/

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond-----is this the Russian citizen who the Russian Foreign Ministry has bitterly complained about that was arrested by Americans while he was on vacation---is not his mother in the Duma?

mirhond---noticed the Russian FM did not mention the Russian citizen arrested was a well known Russian hacker.

MOSCOW. July 8 (Interfax) - Moscow has called an unfriendly step the detention in the Maldives of Russian citizen Roman Seleznyov whom the United States wants to prosecute.

"We view this incident as another unfriendly step of Washington. This is not the first time that the U.S. side has ignored the 1999bilateral treaty on mutual legal assistance in criminal cases and actually abducted a Russian citizen. For instance, this has happened to Viktor Bout and Konstantin Yaroshenko who were taken to the United States by force from third countries and convicted on doubtful counts," says a commentary posted on the Russian Foreign Ministry website.

"The Russian diplomats are taking the utmost efforts to find out details of the detention of R. Seleznyov and his soonest return to the home country. We are insisting that the U.S. give coherent explanations about the incident, strictly observe the rights of the Russian citizen and give a consular access to him," the ministry said.



Jul 14
Feds Charge Carding Kingpin in Retail Hacks

The U.S. Justice Department on Monday announced the arrest of a Russian hacker accused of running a network of online crime shops that sold credit and debit card data stolen in breaches at restaurants and retailers throughout the United States.

The government alleges that the hacker known in the underground as “nCux” and “Bulba” was Roman Seleznev, a 30-year-old Russian citizen who was recently arrested by the U.S. Secret Service.

Selzenev was initially identified by the government in 2012, when it named him as part of a conspiracy involving more than three dozen popular merchants on carder[dot]su, a bustling fraud forum where Bulba and other members openly marketed various cybercrime-oriented services.

According to Seleznev’s own indictment, which was filed in 2011 but made public this week, he was allegedly part of a group that hacked into restaurants between 2009 and 2011 and planted malicious software to steal card data from store point-of-sale devices.

The indictment further alleges that Seleznev and unnamed accomplices used his online monikers to sell stolen credit and debit cards at bulba[dot]cc and track2[dot]name. Customers of these services paid for their cards with virtual currencies, including WebMoney and Bitcoin. As explained in the screen shot below, the track2[dot]name site stopped accepting new members in 2011, and new applicants were directed to bulba[dot]cc, which claimed to be an authorized reseller.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---can you explain why all of those new Russian passports for the Crimea that were issued with great fanfare are actually invalid?

http://inforesist.org/en/crimean-rus...to-be-invalid/

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---can you explain why all of those new Russian passports for the Crimea that were issued with great fanfare are actually invalid?

http://inforesist.org/en/crimean-rus...to-be-invalid/

mirhond---the question was unanswered so therefore the passports must be invalid since you are the Russian expert.

Would have thought your FSB employers would have at least allowed you to deny the article---strange is it not mirhond---you often have comments but then fail to answer a simple straight forward question.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond-----is this the Russian citizen who the Russian Foreign Ministry has bitterly complained about that was arrested by Americans while he was on vacation---is not his mother in the Duma?

mirhond---noticed the Russian FM did not mention the Russian citizen arrested was a well known Russian hacker.

MOSCOW. July 8 (Interfax) - Moscow has called an unfriendly step the detention in the Maldives of Russian citizen Roman Seleznyov whom the United States wants to prosecute.

"We view this incident as another unfriendly step of Washington. This is not the first time that the U.S. side has ignored the 1999bilateral treaty on mutual legal assistance in criminal cases and actually abducted a Russian citizen. For instance, this has happened to Viktor Bout and Konstantin Yaroshenko who were taken to the United States by force from third countries and convicted on doubtful counts," says a commentary posted on the Russian Foreign Ministry website.

"The Russian diplomats are taking the utmost efforts to find out details of the detention of R. Seleznyov and his soonest return to the home country. We are insisting that the U.S. give coherent explanations about the incident, strictly observe the rights of the Russian citizen and give a consular access to him," the ministry said.



Jul 14
Feds Charge Carding Kingpin in Retail Hacks

The U.S. Justice Department on Monday announced the arrest of a Russian hacker accused of running a network of online crime shops that sold credit and debit card data stolen in breaches at restaurants and retailers throughout the United States.

The government alleges that the hacker known in the underground as “nCux” and “Bulba” was Roman Seleznev, a 30-year-old Russian citizen who was recently arrested by the U.S. Secret Service.

Selzenev was initially identified by the government in 2012, when it named him as part of a conspiracy involving more than three dozen popular merchants on carder[dot]su, a bustling fraud forum where Bulba and other members openly marketed various cybercrime-oriented services.

According to Seleznev’s own indictment, which was filed in 2011 but made public this week, he was allegedly part of a group that hacked into restaurants between 2009 and 2011 and planted malicious software to steal card data from store point-of-sale devices.

The indictment further alleges that Seleznev and unnamed accomplices used his online monikers to sell stolen credit and debit cards at bulba[dot]cc and track2[dot]name. Customers of these services paid for their cards with virtual currencies, including WebMoney and Bitcoin. As explained in the screen shot below, the track2[dot]name site stopped accepting new members in 2011, and new applicants were directed to bulba[dot]cc, which claimed to be an authorized reseller.

mirhond---you failed to answer this so I am assuming it to be correct that the Russian citizen was in fact an internationally known and wanted hacker who thought he could take a vacation unnoticed from the US Marshalls.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond--cannot believe you are still writing as I had heard Dugin has been replaced by Putin as a close advisor and the FSB has been told to stop their inforwar---noticed there has been no longer any terms such as Nazi and junta coming out of Moscow---wonder why?

mirhond---not so sure Putin has "won" anything as it appears that there is no money in the current Russian budget for the Crimea---wonder why?

http://inforesist.org/en/russia-chan...imea-no-money/

mirhond---also noticed that Russian employers are "asking" their employees to "donate" a days worth of earnings to support the Crimea----what happened no money in the Russian budget? Many so called Russian employees are complaining their wages are going down and are refusing to "donate"---not a good indicator of support for Putin and the Crimea if you ask me mirhond.

mirhond--the first Russian vacationers are back from their "subsidized" vacations in the Crimea and they "complained" about the poor service, bad hotels and poor food---what happened there mirhond?

mirhond---in the New York times from today there was a long article from Crimea farmers complaining the are getting little to no support from Russian which was "promised by Putin"---what happened there mirhond---again no money?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/08/wo...-hurdles.html?

so mirhond where is the "win"?

http://inforesist.org/sily-ato-obnar...d-slavyanskom/

mirhond ---Again no responses from you so mirhond I am assuming the comments to be correct since you are the Russian expert here.

So again mirhond---a great Putin "win" is it?