Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[OUTLAW 09]

Nobody here knows what Putin "really wants". We only know what he does: any effort to deduce motivation or desire is speculative.

What we know is that Putin has had troops positioned to intervene for months. He's had all the pretext he could ask for. The "rebels" have begged him to intervene. He hasn't. I don't know how that squares up with the assumption that he "really wants" Russian peacekeepers in Donetsk. If he really wanted them there, they'd have been there a long time ago.

This also seems inconsistent with that position:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...n-Ukraine.html





Haven't similar movements back and forth been going on for months? Why would NATO suddenly make a big fuss over it now?

I'm sure Putin will continue sending men and equipment to help his proxies, though they appear to be increasingly incoherent, conflicted, and unable to establish any functional political apparatus. I see no reason to assume that he wants to send in troops. If he wanted that it would be a fait accomplii already, as it was in Crimea. Again, we don't know why he hasn't moved: fear of sanctions, fear of bogging down in an occupation role... all conjecture. What we know is that he could have done it a long time ago, and has not.



He's spoken the words, but he hasn't acted on them. His proxies are retreating in disarray, fighting with each other and losing faith in his promises... and that's a win? What would you call a loss?



If even those ridiculously minimal sanctions, and a few threats, could force him to pull back, then all he's done is advertise his own vulnerability. How is that a win?



He can claim whatever he wants. What the world sees is that in May he looked set to seaize the Eastern Ukraine and possibly push across to Transnistria, cutting Ukraine off from the sea, and potentially threatening the rest of Eastern Europe... and today he looks set to settle for a bit of nebulously defined "influence" in Eastern Ukraine. Can't see that as a "win" in any sense.



How is that a loss? If the mere threat accomplishes the goal, what need is there for elevated sanctions?



The predicted threat did not materialize and looks less likeley to materialize every day... and it's entirely possible that a more active response involving military threats would have made matters worse, not better. If anything Putin has underscored his own weakness by backing down in the face of very limited sanctions and a few vague threats of more extensive ones. Can't call it a 100% win for the West, of course, as Crimea is realistically gone, but if Ukraine manages to re-establish functioning sovereignty over the east it is certainly not the huge Russian win that was being predicted here not long ago.

Dayuhan---here is the problem with your thinking analysis processes and actually JMA is correct.

What one "sees" is not what you "get".

I could actually go day by day the last two weeks and depict in detail that while you, EU and Obama "thinks" you are ahead---Putin has actually taken three steps forward and only a half step backwards.

He is in a race---namely does he get what he needs and wants and that is the New Russia ie the Donetsk before his economy tanks for a long while. Why Donetsk---it is where the bulk of all Russian military production which Russia needs for their 2020 rearming program is currently being produced and it would take Putin ten years to rebuild it inside Russia---he needs the Donetsk.

That is his race and we do not even see it---strange is it not? You honesty think Putin thinks for a single moment he is losing come on Dayuhan.

If you think for one moment those Russian "war tourists" or what I call irregulars are not being slid through a border that Putin "claims" was secure with the approval of the FSB ---check this link showing documents of a killed "Russian war tourist"---down to the Russian military unit he was assigned to.

http://inforesist.org/en/the-fate-of...in-the-donbas/

In the meantime no one is believing anything the EU, NATO and the US is actually saying any more while nothing has been done on the last threat of sanctions---meaning Putin had to fulfill four points inside one week and nothing was done---Putin is a great slight of hand specialist meaning he "shows" a hint of something and we in the West fall over backwards and yell hey it's working he is backing down---far from the truth.

He was to;
1. recognize the elections as fair---has he openly stated that--no
2. he was to fully recognize the current Ukrainian president---has he openly stated that to the world?---no
3. he was to stop the movement of armed irregulars and weapons across the Russian border and what did we get 20 T64s and more coming
4. he was to get the irregulars to lay down their weapons

Has any of that occurred?

As for the infowar---he fired his radial nationalist advisor Dugin to appear like he is backing off but the infowar is raring just as hard as before the firing---they are n o longer using the terms, Nazis, junta and more talk about civilians being killed and needing humanitarian aid and protection zones.

http://inforesist.org/en/us-showed-6...russian-media/