Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[OUTLAW 09]

I take the freedom to dump a text from my blog here, since it relates to the topic. The properly formatted version is here.

fuchs---would have rewritten the article focusing on the concept of Russia using a strategic UW strategy in the conducting of a political war against both the Ukraine and the West (the West as his Duma speech indicated is viewed as being a "liberal democracy" and "western capitalism" as pushed by the US/IMF). By the way both qualities found in the EU which is also a Putin concern.

Then I would focus on the current five legs of a Russian stool that is in fact the current Russia political society/animal 1) the security services, 2) the military, 3) the oligarchs, 4) Russian mob/gangs and 5) the Russian Orthodox Church and the seat of the stool being in fact a new Russian ideology --"ethnic nationalism". Especially focusing on the interplay between each of the groups and Putin's foreign policies.

This new ideology "ethnic nationalism" is being driven by the following spokesperson Alexandra Dugin who pushes what he calls the "New Euroasianism" and/or "Nationalbolshevism" that is tied into the Russian nationalist groups who are in turn tied into European wide Nationalist groups who in turn have extensive media outlets supporting them ie what one sees currently in use in Russia airing proUkrainian videos and radio interviews.

This new ideology if one reads the Duma speech--- Putin inherently wants to lead globally.

Putin's' use of a strategic UW strategy is in fact being carried out by all five elements just mentioned.

This strategy is just not a rehash of version 2 of the Cold War but something new and needs to be fully understood by all players in the West as they is currently not a single counter UW strategy seen anywhere out there.

It is a strategy that can be turned on and off at his will anywhere on the borders to Russia proper as well as the ME ie Syria and he can sustain it virtually forever unless a counter UW strategy is found in a hurry and we fully understand in the West the term "political warfare".

[Fuchs]

I was aiming at the core, not trying to write a comprehensive analysis of Europe's security situation or of Russia. And I don't think the reference to a poorly defined concept ("UW") helps in pointing out the novelty in there.
I was NOT satisfied with merely calling it "UW"; I wanted to show what I think is the core of the matter.

And that is core of the matter is that he has identified and is exploiting gaps in the European security architecture.

[AdamG]

WaPo's version of the OOB - interesting about the UA 25th Airborne Brigade.
http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/pag...ne-border/996/

[OUTLAW 09]

You can write "UW" as often as you want, but buzzwords bring nothing to the table.

I am a European and there's at least one huge gap in the European security architecture which was meant to not allow war to slip into Europe.
This is a big deal to us.

Look at it from the long-term angle; the Ukraine crisis isn't only about itself, but it's like a computer which got disabled by malware. We ought to scramble to fix the vulnerability to protect other computers.
To save the disabled computer should be secondary to the community.


And sorry, but I don't see anything interesting in what you call Putin's "political warfare". I've seen too much of it in history books. It's normal.

The problem in the Ukraine is that he's staying below a certain threshold, and he does so because the threshold is high for a great power. This is essentially what GWB did to Iraq as well (getting away with an aggression without overt hostile intervention), except that his threshold was much higher due to the alliance situation, so his gang was much more brazen.


We need to lower the thresholds and make sure potential aggressors understand about the lowered level, so they don't mess up by misunderstanding them.

See fuchs---here is the difference between you the European and myself the American having lived say in Germany since say 1967 and understanding the European better than themselves.

What Europeans got in 1989 was the ability to disarm their militaries and to drive down their defense budgets to a level that was "comfortable" meaning militaries were now "cheap" compared to say 1985. Yes some participated in AFG, but again it was not a great investment and in the mean time they continued the disarmament---take Germany and the cutting of their armored brigades last year.

Then the European companies went on a spending and investing binge in Russia as it "appeared" to be the great next business market and they did in fact make great money in their investments and still do today so hey who wants to rock the boat and besides Europeans thought that if one invests a lot in another country then that country would not want to cause a war which seems to have not been true now.

So what is the European answer currently towards Putin---what is the lower threshold you are going to set---what not continue buying his gas.

Putin would really respect Europeans if in fact they placed sanctions on Russia that in fact hurt European businesses as well as that would show him Europeans are willing to sacrifice their money for an ideal---that ain't about to happen believe me,

What you think is a buzz word is exactly what is allowing Putin to stay under a specific level and do not think for a moment that what is being practiced by the "separatists" ie proRussian armed groups is nothing more or less that outright UW at the tactical level.

UW as a strategy gives a country the ability in political warfare to scale up and scale down their responses depending on what the Ukrainians do as well as what the Europeans do.

By the way the term political warfare fell out of use over 30 or so years ago and has not been discussed much since then.

But hey continue believing that buzz words do not count and continue believing that what you are seeing is not UW which seems to be the European way.

[Fuchs]

* "para-" or not is irrelevant. Neither was legal.
* The supposed "cadre" thing never really worked. Wherever there are supposed examples of success (such as in Indochina) the success rested on indigenous unrest which was merely channelled. It was obvious that some Russians living in the Ukraine would fall for USSR nostalgia. This didn't require extra input.
The "cadre" thing didn't work because otherwise no foreign troops would have been necessary. I remember how desperately some Russians were looking for people in the Eastern Ukraine finally stepping up against "fascism" etc. during the Majdan thing. Very little happened, and was probably FSB-driven. The insurrection thing isn't really indigenous either. Whatever support the FSB built up, Putin was clearly not as satisfied by it as were Westerners about the Majdan thing.

* Europe did not "disarm".
* European companies didn't really go into a spending spree in Russia. Direct and other investments were quite modest. More importantly, it wasn't done "then", after the peace dividend began. Foreign direct investments (from rest of world) in Russia only took off when the increased energy prices improved the Russian trade balance as well as after deregulation by 2006. It dropped sharply after 2008.
see chart page 15
They can hardly have made much money in these a few years.
* It's not about whether Putin "respects Europeans". It's about whether he sees freedom of action or not. The personalising view on foreign policy ('I looked into his soul' stuff) is mostly bollocks on a continent that's rigged so fast as is Europe.
* The United States trade almost entirely across two oceans; their ports are universal interfaces to world trade.
Europe has more meaningful land connections to no less than three continents.
It also has worked its way out of seemingly perpetual intra-European conflict by seeking more cooperation, and that era of conflict is still in (some's) living memory.
It's typical American to think that cutting off some miscreants is a fine punishment. But to Europeans this means to cut off something meaningful. Confrontation instead of cooperation also risks a return of a pattern of hot conflicts.

Few Europeans seem to be interested in getting caught in a real, European-style, war over the stupid borders of a multi-ethnic state with which their own country isn't allied.
Playing with fire may be fun outdoors, but it's rather frowned upon in one's home.

[kaur]

Fuchs, I was used to your good habit to call things with their right names and your attempts to go to the roots of problems. Now you have twice rejected my comments, that there were Russian toops in Crimea (even Putin admitted this), you still have word "paramilitary" in your blog, I just don't understand you.

About cadre. Crimea case is best case study, which shows worst case scenario. This took place in favourable circumstances. In less favourable circumstances this cadre acts just like spoiler among allies in EU and NATO. There are several scenarious between those I named. I just don't understand why some European countries underestimate Russians. Today we see that Russians can act very efficently. In January Barroso and van Rompuy told Putin "Mind your own business" and told him about Ukraine's independent choice. Today Europe is happy that OSCE observers are freed in Slavyansk by FSB guy. How can you say that Putin is happy or unhappy? Do you know what makes him happy? It would be really intersting to hear.

[Fuchs]

Fuchs, I was used to your good habit to call things with their right names and your attempts to go to the roots of problems. Now you have twice rejected my comments, that there were Russian toops in Crimea (even Putin admitted this), you still have word "paramilitary" in your blog, I just don't understand you.

About cadre. Crimea case is best case study, which shows worst case scenario. This took place in favourable circumstances. In less favourable circumstances this cadre acts just like spoiler among allies in EU and NATO. There are several scenarious between those I named. I just don't understand why some European countries underestimate Russians. Today we see that Russians can act very efficently. In January Barroso and van Rompuy told Putin "Mind your own business" and told him about Ukraine's independent choice. Today Europe is happy that OSCE observers are freed in Slavyansk by FSB guy. How can you say that Putin is happy or unhappy? Do you know what makes him happy? It would be really intersting to hear.

Oh, you meant the blog.
Well, again - I don't see much of a difference between paramilitary and military. Neither was legally allowed to be there, so I'm not downplaying anything. I wonder why you see much of a difference between a military man with an AK-74 and a paramilitary man with an AK-74. The difference is especially marginal in Russia with its USSR traditions. The KGB operated a coast guard that included anti-submarine and air defence systems, after all. Warsaw Pact 'worker militias' were always meant to be auxiliary military forces in the event of war.
German paramilitary Cold War border guards were by defined as becoming combatants in the event of war.
There's really not that much difference between military and paramilitary.

And frankly, I'm not inclined to look up unreliable sources only to see whether the one or the other word is more accurate.
_________

The Slawjansk hostage episode was a show for the media. I doubt that the foreign politicians were stupid enough to fall for it and spend much time and effort on it.

What's going to be interesting is what the Ukrainians do once they have FSB guys captured. We might see some old school "confession"-style videos which could be very dangerous to Putin's racket and I think he might be very concerned about this.
I noted that the reports about the fighting in that town mentioned that the town was encircled. I wonder whether the encirclement is tight enough to really use it as a trap for the FSB personnel. They will likely not fight to the last man, after all.


I suppose right now it's about time to offer Putin a face-saving way out. He's already at his culminating point.
Let him build some more on his Crimea success (for Crimea is gone for good anyway), give him some political victory (such as Svoboda kicked out of government, something which the EU should like to see as well) and then he gets to write off the continental Ukraine.

Then in the next years the West can demand concessions from Putin for not inviting the Ukraine into NATO (but merely equipping its army). Such as a satisfactory (to us) solution to the Abchasia and South Ossetia conflicts, ratification for the border treaty with Estonia, withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria, no S-300s for Iran and no arms exports to the Caucasus that could fuel a new war over Berg-Karabach.
The best about this is that the threat of inviting them could be held up indefinitely. It's a self-regenerating bargaining chip.

[Firn]

I pretty much agree with kaur. I'm all for a diplomatic solution the big question is how to achieve it. For over two months Putin got plenty of time, tiny sanctions and mostly very diplomatic language to exit the conflict in internal triumph. Instead he continues to fan the flames of war in Ukraine. Looks like the unopposed occupation of Ukrainian territory went all too smoothly with the Ukrainians behaving all too nicely. Harsher economic sanctions as a sign of strenght seem so far sadly be the better path to 'de-escalate' the conflict in which Putin has factually escalated and escalated.

Overall it is of course much easier to start a bloody conflict then to end it. Even Putin should now that.

[OUTLAW 09]

Oh, you meant the blog.
Well, again - I don't see much of a difference between paramilitary and military. Neither was legally allowed to be there, so I'm not downplaying anything. I wonder why you see much of a difference between a military man with an AK-74 and a paramilitary man with an AK-74. The difference is especially marginal in Russia with its USSR traditions. The KGB operated a coast guard that included anti-submarine and air defence systems, after all. Warsaw Pact 'worker militias' were always meant to be auxiliary military forces in the event of war.
German paramilitary Cold War border guards were by defined as becoming combatants in the event of war.
There's really not that much difference between military and paramilitary.

And frankly, I'm not inclined to look up unreliable sources only to see whether the one or the other word is more accurate.
_________

The Slawjansk hostage episode was a show for the media. I doubt that the foreign politicians were stupid enough to fall for it and spend much time and effort on it.

What's going to be interesting is what the Ukrainians do once they have FSB guys captured. We might see some old school "confession"-style videos which could be very dangerous to Putin's racket and I think he might be very concerned about this.
I noted that the reports about the fighting in that town mentioned that the town was encircled. I wonder whether the encirclement is tight enough to really use it as a trap for the FSB personnel. They will likely not fight to the last man, after all.


I suppose right now it's about time to offer Putin a face-saving way out. He's already at his culminating point.
Let him build some more on his Crimea success (for Crimea is gone for good anyway), give him some political victory (such as Svoboda kicked out of government, something which the EU should like to see as well) and then he gets to write off the continental Ukraine.

Then in the next years the West can demand concessions from Putin for not inviting the Ukraine into NATO (but merely equipping its army). Such as a satisfactory (to us) solution to the Abchasia and South Ossetia conflicts, ratification for the border treaty with Estonia, withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria, no S-300s for Iran and no arms exports to the Caucasus that could fuel a new war over Berg-Karabach.
The best about this is that the threat of inviting them could be held up indefinitely. It's a self-regenerating bargaining chip.

fuchs---you know you are an example of the European education system of the last ten years when you quote the below as you do but then again I have heard the same style of German left arguments in the 1969 timeframe meaning hey if it does not fit my definition of what I am explaining then it does not count---co me on fuchs paramilitary does not mean much in Russia.

1. German paramilitary Cold War border guards were by defined as becoming combatants in the event of war.
There's really not that much difference between military and paramilitary.

2. And frankly, I'm not inclined to look up unreliable sources only to see whether the one or the other word is more accurate.
_________

3. The Slawjansk hostage episode was a show for the media. I doubt that the foreign politicians were stupid enough to fall for it and spend much time and effort on it.

1. The BGS was in fact during the Cold War actually a federalized police force with military ranks as was say the French Gendarmerie in peace time and since there was no war they never did become "combatants"-- BUT are in fact Russian Cossacks holding a active Russian military/police reserve commission as an officer of the GRU actually not really military or just "paramilitary" however you define paramilitary OR--would you call a German reserve MAD unit paramilitary or military---come on fuchs

2. typical German student attempt to sidetrack a debate that one does want to agree with/nor listen would you not admit? You are as bad a responder as is mirhond. Hopefully if you have an actual blog for yourself you do not act in this manner.

3. If the OCSE hostage event was a media show---then for who?-- the proRussians in eastern Ukraine meaning hey EU/OCSE we here in eastern Ukraine can do what we want because we are an "independent republic"---(first of all they are neither independent nor a republic or for that matter democratic) and we can even ignore diplomatic passports if we want to --OR "we will talk with Russia on this event" just after taking the bostages and what then had to happen again for a propaganda show-- Russia sends a personal envoy and it took him a long while to get basically should have been an immediate release under the internal agreements handling of diplomatic passport holders.

So again fuchs do not be a typical German left student who hates another opinion other than their own voices being heard.

AND where are all of those German 1968 left students today in the German culture---all quiet chasing the Euro and handling their own kids in an authoritarian manner driving Ferraris and Audi 8s.

My biggest critique of the current "European"---you guys would demo up to about 1994 for anything if it crossed your value systems and beliefs ---where are the demos today in Germany, Italy of even France? The only thing that seems to motivate some of the left are when the neo Nazis march.

Where are the critical voices in European political parties, where are the critical voices in the culture or in press comments--so fuchs just what is a European these days?

By the way why would you support a position of wanting to help Putin dig himself out of a hole---is it not the current German Grundschule model of allowing the pupil to learn how on his/her terms one gets out of a hole-so why help him as that is not a way for someone to learn and grow--come on fuchs.

Part of the problem you are avoiding in getting to a lower threshold for Russia to understand is in fact the disunity among all 28 European EU members who are more concerned about the loss of profits and taxes from sanctions than setting a lower threshold.

If German students can never get to a common opinion then just how do you proposed getting a total consensus with 28 countries.

[OUTLAW 09]

* "para-" or not is irrelevant. Neither was legal.
* The supposed "cadre" thing never really worked. Wherever there are supposed examples of success (such as in Indochina) the success rested on indigenous unrest which was merely channelled. It was obvious that some Russians living in the Ukraine would fall for USSR nostalgia. This didn't require extra input.
The "cadre" thing didn't work because otherwise no foreign troops would have been necessary. I remember how desperately some Russians were looking for people in the Eastern Ukraine finally stepping up against "fascism" etc. during the Majdan thing. Very little happened, and was probably FSB-driven. The insurrection thing isn't really indigenous either. Whatever support the FSB built up, Putin was clearly not as satisfied by it as were Westerners about the Majdan thing.

* Europe did not "disarm".
* European companies didn't really go into a spending spree in Russia. Direct and other investments were quite modest. More importantly, it wasn't done "then", after the peace dividend began. Foreign direct investments (from rest of world) in Russia only took off when the increased energy prices improved the Russian trade balance as well as after deregulation by 2006. It dropped sharply after 2008.
see chart page 15
They can hardly have made much money in these a few years.
* It's not about whether Putin "respects Europeans". It's about whether he sees freedom of action or not. The personalising view on foreign policy ('I looked into his soul' stuff) is mostly bollocks on a continent that's rigged so fast as is Europe.
* The United States trade almost entirely across two oceans; their ports are universal interfaces to world trade.
Europe has more meaningful land connections to no less than three continents.
It also has worked its way out of seemingly perpetual intra-European conflict by seeking more cooperation, and that era of conflict is still in (some's) living memory.
It's typical American to think that cutting off some miscreants is a fine punishment. But to Europeans this means to cut off something meaningful. Confrontation instead of cooperation also risks a return of a pattern of hot conflicts.

Few Europeans seem to be interested in getting caught in a real, European-style, war over the stupid borders of a multi-ethnic state with which their own country isn't allied.
Playing with fire may be fun outdoors, but it's rather frowned upon in one's home.

fuchs---you really cannot mean this;

* Europe did not "disarm".

What were the troops levels of all the NATO militaries during 1989 with tanks/APC/aircraft counts versus those numbers in 2014.

What were the percentages of total budgets spent on each military in 1989 versus today 2014?

Come on fuchs---Europe did not disarm.

Few Europeans seem to be interested in getting caught in a real, European-style, war over the stupid borders of a multi-ethnic state with which their own country isn't allied.

With the large internal movements of ethnic populations now going on among the 28 members of the EU I thought it was all about multi ethnic cultures so the EU only cares about what---it's own multi ethnic cultures but not about others outside the EU---extremely egocentric if you ask me as it appears that then the EU is only interested in how much money they can make in these "other multi cultural countires" that are not part of the EU.

Come on fuchs you cannot believe your own sentence below;

They can hardly have made much money in these a few years.

Even at the height of the Cold War in the late 70s German companies were investing in and making money in Russia ---either directly or indirectly via the EU---remember once in 1973 the EU and that included Germany sold a massive amount of old Cold Storage stored butter (something like over 2000 tons) to the Soviet Union that made a ton of money for German farmers and the German government---and you really still believe there was not money to be made in the former Soviet Union and now Russia. Check the sheer amount of German investments made into Russia since 1994 and the profits taken out of that business and tell me they made little money. Heck Rheinmetal was sitting on a 200M Euro simulation center for the Russian Army that was giving them a 37% return on the sale as a profit--not bad at all and there was more in the simulation business pipeline for them after that sale.

come on fuchs---

[JMA]

"There are none so blind as those who will not see"

If the European countries were to recognise what exactly is going on right under their noses they might have to do something about it.

Europe today:

fuchs---this actually goes to what I see as a complete European weakness---the lack of the ability to tell truth from propaganda and call it propaganda when it is propaganda.

I have seen very very few articles in the European media pointing out to the massive Russian propaganda machine that is cranking out lie after lie into the Crimea, then eastern and now southern Ukraine.

[Snip]

Have you as an European noticed the subtle word changes by both proRussians and Russia/Putin---at first they were being called "federalizationists" now they are being called "separatists" THAT is a massive word usage shift and means only one thing---war.

Check this link and the web site for a differing point of view that might not set well with Europeans.

http://inforesist.org

[OUTLAW 09]

"There are none so blind as those who will not see"

If the European countries were to recognise what exactly is going on right under their noses they might have to do something about it.

Europe today:

JMA---like it---the Russians have been repeating over and over they have no control over the armed "separatists" and now they are "demanding" the OCSE/PACE do something.

Interfax from today:

15:28 RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY: WE DEMAND THAT OSCE AND COUNCIL OF EUROPE INSTITUTIONS IMMEDIATELY MAKE AN OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN UKRAINE

In some aspects the Ukrainian government now has the US/EU over a barrel as well as the Russians---the EU/US have gone on full record they will move to the stage three sanctions against broad sectors of the Russian economy basically gas/oil and the banking system which in the end will result is a collapsing of the Russian internal/external economy if Russia moves into the Ukraine---that is a public statement and one hard to back down from without losing face in their respective countries.

Now along comes the Odessa fire and the Ukrainian government making moves against the cities/towns held by the "separatists" and are actually making headway which in the end will slow down if not stop the "separatist" movements thus a failure of the Russian UW plan for destabilizing the Ukraine.

Russia is clawing at the bit to cross over under whatever excuse they can create/come up with even if it was a fire caused by their own supporters, but in fully knowing the economic pain it will cause which has become evident to them in the last week or so.

So they cross over and get hit and their economy collapses---so is the Ukraine moving now because they feel Russia is in a checkmate position meaning inadvertently the US/EU finally got it right unknowingly and the Russians on the other hand if without any major reason for crossing do in fact cross over get politically isolated for years to come struggling to reconstitute their economy all the while claiming to be a superpower---am 300% sure Putin does now realize the hole he is in as it is a lose lose position, and I am not sure why fuchs here wants the West to get him out of that hole.

An interesting accidental turn of events.

[OUTLAW 09]

fuchs---this actually goes to what I see as a complete European weakness---the lack of the ability to tell truth from propaganda and call it propaganda when it is propaganda.

I have seen very very few articles in the European media pointing out to the massive Russian propaganda machine that is cranking out lie after lie into the Crimea, then eastern and now southern Ukraine.

Many have focused on the east but the real battle will be for Odessa which links them then to their Moldavia enclave, controls the southern portion of the Ukraine and takes over the Black Sea port of Odessa cutting the Ukraine off from a major sea port and taking out a major source of export revenue. Actually NATO general Breedlove has indicated that is what he was assuming would happen but he got told to shut up and got cut off from the media by the US White House as it did not fit the current situation and it scared the Europeans especially Germany.

This particular link is a video of evidently recent Russian aircraft reinforcements coming into the Crimea which has not been reported anywhere in Europe before-why not would be a good question for you?

http://inforesist.org/video-mass-tra...rimea/?lang=en

Also if one checks the web site they have an actual video of the attack on the Odessa building that resulted in a large loss of proRussian lives which is being drummed into the media by Russia and the "separatists" and will be the main cause for the Russia military crossing into Odessa from the Crimea---remember most of the elite Russian army units that came into Crimea have not left the Crimea but are in fact sitting nicely on the southern Ukrainian border regions is full strength--also seemingly forgotten by the Germans/EU/NATO.

http://inforesist.org/video-what-was...dessa/?lang=en

Check the Russian media version of the attack and then check the video and accompanying Ukrainian explanations and one will see hard core propaganda at work coupled with now claims from today that the eastern Ukraine is forming self defense battalions in order to attack Kiev-so a "ragtag" group of farmers, former soldiers, merchants and salesmen are going to march as a armed battalion on Kiev OR fuchs those "paramilitary types" that are numbered in about the 2500 range. AND the term paramilitary does not make a difference?

Core is that the building was not firebombed by radical Nazis but rather set on fire internally on several floors and the tents were burnt down outside by actually proRussian demonstrators not radical proUkrainian soccer fans as depicted in the Russian media. BUT if one listens to eastern "separatists" they are now claiming they need Russian help to keep from being encircled and burnt alive referring to the Odessa event.

Have you as an European noticed the subtle word changes by both proRussians and Russia/Putin---at first they were being called "federalizationists" now they are being called "separatists" THAT is a massive word usage shift and means only one thing---war.

Check this link and the web site for a differing point of view that might not set well with Europeans.

http://inforesist.org

It is interesting that now the first European news agency is picking up the video info on the Russian fighter/bombers arriving in the Crimea---reported today also by AFP.

[OUTLAW 09]

fuchs---you speak of Europeans---let's talk about German positions in the Ukrainian/Russian fight.

As I indicated to you Germans love to talk and then to talk and talk---they are basically afraid of action in any form.

Here they go again---another conference to end all the other conferences.

Die Ausschreitungen in der Ukraine finden kein Ende, internationale Vereinbarungen zum Gewaltverzicht in dem Land greifen bislang nicht. Auenminister Steinmeier wirbt daher jetzt fr eine zweite Genfer Konferenz zur Beilegung des Konflikts.

[kaur]

Fuchs:

Then in the next years the West can demand concessions from Putin for not inviting the Ukraine into NATO (but merely equipping its army). Such as a satisfactory (to us) solution to the Abchasia and South Ossetia conflicts, ratification for the border treaty with Estonia, withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria, no S-300s for Iran and no arms exports to the Caucasus that could fuel a new war over Berg-Karabach.
The best about this is that the threat of inviting them could be held up indefinitely. It's a self-regenerating bargaining chip.

You must be joking Why should they leave Transnistria? Tell me that they will give it back to Moldova. They leave Armenia and Azerbaijan alone? Tell my why? Beacause Europeans are asking nicely? Do they care about nicesities? Of course Kremlin will say that they have no ambitions and MFA will say that civil society acts finally. For me personally Russia's social capital is zero. This article is very suitable to this topic and helps you to measure the truth level. If you are not familiar, then Nashi is Kremlin organised, financied, controlled organisation, whosw stepfather Surkov today coordinates CIS area. This organisation is dead today, but new ones are flourishing.

Estonia had already formally complained of harassment of its diplomats in Moscow, but the protests on Wednesday were the most disruptive. The raucous protests forced the closure of Estonia’s consulate and the evacuation of diplomats’ families, about 20 people, said Franek Persidski, a spokesman for the consulate.

Protesters attacked the Swedish ambassador’s car at the embassy, prompting a formal protest from Stockholm. They also attacked Ms. Kaljurand’s car as it left the offices of a magazine where she had held her news conference.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry, questioned about the harassment of the diplomats, declined to comment. But a spokesman, Mikhail L. Kamynin, told Interfax, “We still believe that the tension and the reaction of civil society in Russia were provoked.”

[Fuchs]

Kaur, it's difficult to see the strategic view when one is under impression of recent events and situations.

Look at a map, and remember how central to Russia it is to have a buffer in front of Moscow. NATO would be within 500 km of Moscow if Ukraine joined. He has to prevent this at almost any cost, or else his successful poker game about the Crimea would enter history books as totally backfired and disastrous to Russia strategically.

Russia can also not gulp the Ukraine in its entirety. We know how they got Chechnya under control; they flooded the country with more troops than there were civilians. They cannot do this with the Ukraine, even the Chinese couldn't pull this off.
There's no substantial Russian population in the Ukrainian territory the most close to Moscow, though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogr...ne#Nationality

So even if Putin was able to bite off all Ukrainian areas with a relative majority of Russians he would merely guarantee that the remainder would seek an alliance with the West - and NATO would at Moscow's doorsteps (by Russian standards).

The threat of inviting the Ukraine is a huge and reusable bargaining chip of the West.

[kaur]

Fuchs, I do understand the geographical thing you are saying. I don't remember at the moment when Putin has hinted that there are bargaining chips on the table. As I said in the EU-Russia summit in January leaders of EU told Putin "mind your own business and we will not discuss with you Ukrainian future". Putin went home, had nice olympic games in Sochi and said " F... you, EU!" grabbing Crimea and encouraging rebellion in other parts of country. Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Russians, economic levers, aggressive propaganda etc are all ways to say "F... you, if you don't do like I want." Russians are proposing peaceful solution to EU. There must be free trade area between Lisbon and Vladivastok in 2020, which is built according to formula EU + Eurasian Economic Union (were Russia intended to bring before last events Ukraine, Molodova, Central Asia countires etc). Nice plan, but didn't Russia cross some lines of point of no return? Quite few EU heavy weights think that he didn't and business as usual must continue. Looking at that Putin-Prohhanov-Dugin-Kurginjan etc СССР 2.0 show, Russia's road a head looks bad.

[wm]

By the way the inforesist article was picked up on and verified by AFP roughly six hours later.

Does the mere fact of repeating someone else's story verify its truth? If so, then the truth of the fairy tales of the Brother's Grimm must be indisputable.
Who, by the way, is this expert, Alexei Savich, that the AFP post cites?

[Firn]

Russia to Prosecute Crimean Tatar Protesters Over Unrest

On Saturday, Crimean authorities promised to dish out criminal charges to the group, which numbered about five thousand, according to the BBC Russian service. The group broke through border posts near the city of Armyansk and crossed the border into the buffer zone between Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula to meet Mustafa Dzhemilev, former head of the Crimean Tatar Mejlis, the ethnic group's representative body.

The group blocked several highways near Simferopol, Bakhchysarai, Stary Krym, Yevpatoriya and Oktyabrskoye, Interfax-Ukraine reported.

It is early times, early times. There was some promising talk about the respect for the Tartar minorities. Personally I already doubted the Russian ability to tackle the economic challenges, like the crushing fall in tourism and largely peacefully integrate the large and younger Ukrainian and Tartar minorities.

Putin initiated war and ethnic hatred, which is easy to start but hard to stop. So far he might be 'winning', but the Russians are already losing in other areas. The war comes not only at short-term price economically but the increasingly regime-like internal repressions will likely take their toll on the long-term prospects of the economy. Russia is indeed becoming more and more dependant on private consumption which relies to a large degree on the state's policies which in turn are still increasingly dependent on raw ressources, especially energy.

[OUTLAW 09]

Does the mere fact of repeating someone else's story verify its truth? If so, then the truth of the fairy tales of the Brother's Grimm must be indisputable.
Who, by the way, is this expert, Alexei Savich, that the AFP post cites?

wm---and who is this person typing this response Alexei Savich or a UK citizen---the question and your responses can always be twisted which ever way one decides to take a response that is the freedom on this particular blog--come over to the other site and see if your responses get attention for yourself.

The article and video by the way has been both confirmed to have actually been recorded when it was, and reflects heavy aircraft movement by type by both the Washington Post editors as well as the NYTs and has been picked up by the German news media der Spiegel.

So wm who really cares whose name is on the article for that matter we could use yours if you would like.

Did in fact the video confirm or deny an event is the question and who really give a flip about the name.