Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[JMA]

I've been rather quiet on SWC for months actually.

There was a recent text on my blog equating the Western and Russian violations of IL and pointing out the recent hypocrisy. Legally the Russians have a pretty good case when they compare Western behaviour against Yugoslavia with their behaviour against Ukraine, except the violated guarantees. But treaties were violated by Western countries as well, so they can construct equivalent Western evilness by adding a few violations.
The West clearly was lacking self-discipline, and now it sees what happens when other great powers lose respect for rules, too.

That was no answer... unless you are OK with the Russian action on the grounds of previous US actions elsewhere.

Are you OK ... without reservation... with the Russian action?

The gas supply thing is still the same; Russians are even more dependent than Germans on the pipeline, and we've had natural gas trade with them since well into the Cold War. It's largely a non-issue. Even a complete cut-off would merely be a nuisance when compared to historical embargoes.
The "energy reliance" on natural gas makes up only 22.5% Germany's energy 'consumption' and the minority of its natural gas consumption is from Russia: 38%

8.5%: Anybody who thinks Germany - the people whose parents and grandparents waged two world wars under total naval blockade - couldn't cope with a loss of this is a fool.
It would be painful, but more like a paper cut pain than like the pain of a submission technique.

Yes... Germany can cope with an abrupt termination of supply... but are they prepared to expose themselves to the disruption... as a reaction to the Russian invasion of Crimea?

My guess is no. The Germans are too fat and comfortable to act in support of international Law and the self determination of a fellow European people if they have to take some 'pain' in the process.

But the original strategic decision to place themselves in a position of dependency for energy from Russia was clearly an error and damaging to the German ability to act according to - what one would believe is - their conscience.

This decision must rank along with the decision to invade Russia in June 1941. It seems when the Germans screw up they screw up big.