Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[OUTLAW 09]

Fuchs---5-7 divisions fully manned, equipped and critically having the necessary supplies in place for a quick charge to Moldavia and into the eastern portion is a breeze when the Ukrainians cannot get more than 20K together at any given time.

What the I&W guys look for is not the troop count but do the Russians have the supplies in place for extended operations and the answer is yes they do and in really large amounts which would be necessary for extended operations into the summer.

So the next question is if in fact it is just a CPX to exercise their staff as they claim then ending a CPX and heading home would be "normal"---but instead they are still increasing-and they no longer speak of a CPX in any PR releases via Interfax--so it is no longer in the realm if a "CPX"---so what is it then?

This small PR comment came in via Interfax:

14:18 Zyuganov: Russia should foster unity of Ukrainian forces resisting fascist nationalists

So when dealing with Russian OSINT and reading between the lines "what is fostering unity of Ukrainian forces resisting fascist nationalists" really mean?

So who then links up with those "unity forces resisting fascist nationalists"---and who are those "unity forces"--what the Ukrainian Army or Spatnaz and the GRU?

[Fuchs]

They don't have all that much in the Western Military District.
About seven brigade equivalents and one or two brigade equivalents airborne.
An equivalent force is at the Caucasus, but largely fixed there due to no less than four regional hot spots, two of which require military and not only paramilitary presence.

And an invasion would not be about facing the Ukrainian military only.


The utility of a troops concentration is that it could embolden Russians in Eastern Ukraine and deter Ukrainians from putting them down. It's also completely legal and legitimate and thus comes at no real political price.
I suppose that's what Putin is really doing. He looks like he's collecting bargaining chips for a border redefinition treaty that includes Ukrainian neutrality and trade provisions.
None of his recent coups de main had a published force build-up, after all.

[wm]

Fuchs---5-7 divisions fully manned, equipped and critically having the necessary supplies in place for a quick charge to Moldavia and into the eastern portion is a breeze when the Ukrainians cannot get more than 20K together at any given time.

A quick charge to Moldavia????-
From where? Certainly not Western Russia-t'would require crossing at least 2 significant water obstacles. If you really view this as a possible option then I suggest you assess the status/concentration of Russian tank/tracked vehicle transport assets--wheeled HETs and rail flatcars--in the area of the exercise force buildup. Then consider the road/rail networks to see how easy your sprint to Moldova or Donets might be.

If your exercise forces all crossed over into Crimea, then we might have a different scenario to consider.

Perhaps a better alternative possibility for the force/supply buildup is to provide emergency relief to Crimea if Ukraine cuts the utility cords.

[JMA]

So what do you think, big guy?

A quick charge to Moldavia????-
From where? Certainly not Western Russia-t'would require crossing at least 2 significant water obstacles. If you really view this as a possible option then I suggest you assess the status/concentration of Russian tank/tracked vehicle transport assets--wheeled HETs and rail flatcars--in the area of the exercise force buildup. Then consider the road/rail networks to see how easy your sprint to Moldova or Donets might be.

If your exercise forces all crossed over into Crimea, then we might have a different scenario to consider.

Perhaps a better alternative possibility for the force/supply buildup is to provide emergency relief to Crimea if Ukraine cuts the utility cords.

[wm]

So what do you think, big guy?

I gave you an hypothesis in the third paragraph. Another option is Russia is that conveying a threat so Ukraine thinks long and hard about pulling the utilies plug on the Crimea.